Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking its year-to-date high, supported by a strong technology growth style, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 Index which rose by 5.48% over the week [2] - Multiple institutions suggest that the logic supporting the A-share market's rise remains unchanged, with current market valuations being relatively reasonable, indicating that the technology growth style may continue to lead the market [2][5] - Recommendations include focusing on sectors with high growth potential and relatively low valuations within the AI industry chain, such as storage, AIDC-related facilities, and AI applications [5][6] Group 2 - The logic for the rise of the Chinese stock market is deemed sustainable, driven by accelerated economic structural transformation, declining risk-free rates, and increased asset management demand [3] - The expectation of continued liquidity support from both domestic and international markets is highlighted, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further, benefiting the A-share market [3][4] - The current market sentiment remains positive, supported by strong policies, industry catalysts, and the influx of new funds, indicating a clear long-term trend for the A-share market [4] Group 3 - The AI sector is experiencing a phase of expansion, with significant growth potential not yet fully priced in, despite some profit-taking observed in the market [5] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors that are experiencing cyclical recovery and not merely on high-to-low transitions, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals and corporate earnings recovery [6] - Recommendations include positioning in sectors such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which are expected to benefit from the overall economic improvement [6]

随着未来更多上市公司从国内敞口转向全球敞口，尤其是在制造环节，中国企业不断将份额转化为定价权，传统的基于 国内库存周期的经济分析已经不能全面刻画市场基本面状态。复盘本轮行情，无论是成长还是价值，涨得多的品种大多 还是跟出海相关，或者深度绑定海外供应链。未来我们评价基本面和流动性是否匹配，要站在全球敞口而不是国内经济 周期的视角去全面评估。 除过去4周有明显的情绪溢价，本轮行情其他绝大部分时候都还是沿着"聪明的钱推动的结构性行情"的脉络演绎，这决定 了策略应对思路应该是淡化波动、不做扩散。市场短期或有一些情绪溢价带来的超额换手，但我们估计日均成交回归1.6 万亿~1.8万亿元可以认为消化掉了这部分情绪溢价。配置上，行业选择的基本框架应该是坚守资源+新质生产力+出海， 我们继续聚焦资源、消费电子、创新药、化工、游戏和军工。 中信证券：站在全球敞口视角去评价基本面 国泰海通：股市不会止步，年内股指还有新高 中国股市上升的逻辑是可持续的，年内中国A/H股指还会走出新高：第一，中国转型加快，经济社会发展不确定降低，能 见度提高是估值重估的重要前提。第二，无风险收益系统下沉，股票市场机会成本降低，资产管理需求井喷和增量入 ...

本周A股呈现"先抑后扬"态势。展望后市，业内机构判断，A股大概率将延续震荡上行走势，但需关注 短期波动风险，市场量能变化是行情走势的重要观测指标。 机构认为，就当前时点而言，市场风格有望趋于均衡，投资者配置重心应放在偏防御的方向上，包括科 技板块内部的高切低方向、红利板块、周期板块等；除A股资产外，恒生科技板块等港股资产配置价值 也值得关注。 影响后市投资大事件 国家网信办就促进和规范电子单证应用规定公开征求意见 中国网信网9月13日消息，为了促进和规范电子单证推广应用，提高货物贸易和运输数字化水平，降低 全社会物流成本，国家互联网信息办公室会同有关部门起草了《促进和规范电子单证应用规定（征求意 见稿）》，现向社会公开征求意见。《规定》鼓励金融机构在依法合规、风险可控前提下，根据电子单 证特点，探索使用数字人民币等新型支付方式开展跨境支付，积极稳妥开展金融产品和服务模式创新。 工信部等八部门：力争实现全年汽车销量3230万辆左右 工信部网站9月13日消息，近日，工信部等八部门联合发布的《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》提出，2025年力争实现全年汽车销量3230万辆左右，同比增长约3%，其中 ...

Group 1 - The US and China held talks in Madrid regarding trade issues, including unilateral tariffs and export controls [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against the US regarding semiconductor measures, effective from September 13, 2025 [4] - An anti-dumping investigation on imported simulation chips from the US will also commence on September 13, 2025, with specific investigation periods outlined [5] Group 2 - The National Internet Information Office encourages financial institutions to explore the use of digital RMB for cross-border payments, aiming to enhance digitalization in trade and reduce logistics costs [6] - Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued a plan to promote the industrial application of intelligent connected vehicles, allowing conditional approval for L3 vehicle production [7] Group 3 - Citic Securities emphasizes evaluating fundamentals from a global perspective, noting that many companies are shifting from domestic to global exposure, particularly in manufacturing [9] - Citic Jiantou Strategy highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with economic recovery potential, particularly in AI and new energy [11] - Guojin Strategy suggests that the market should focus on the recovery of global commodity demand and the potential for domestic economic improvement [12] Group 4 - Recent macro liquidity data shows improvement, with M1 growth rebounding and a trend of residents moving deposits to equity markets [13] - Shenyin Wanguo Strategy indicates that the current market phase is a "bull market not afraid to wait," with a focus on structural bull trends driven by industry developments [14] - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued upward movement in the stock market, particularly in the TMT sector [15] Group 5 - Galaxy Strategy predicts that AI will be a key market driver, supported by favorable liquidity conditions and ongoing demand in the overseas computing power industry [16] - Guotai Junan Strategy believes that the Chinese stock market will continue to rise, driven by economic transformation and supportive policies [17] - Zhongtai Strategy discusses the ongoing debate about the sustainability of the tech sector's leadership in the market, with potential for continued investment if external conditions align [18] Group 6 - Huaxi Securities identifies high-prosperity sectors as the main focus for the current "slow bull" market, with expectations for policy support and capital inflow [19] - Industry allocation recommendations include prioritizing high-prosperity sectors and new consumption areas, with a positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks amid potential foreign investment [20]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a shift in driving logic rather than a simple switch between growth and value styles or sector performance, with macroeconomic improvements allowing economic recovery to spread across multiple industries [1] - Recent discussions on style switching have been misinterpreted; the focus should be on the underlying logic of market changes rather than merely high versus low performance [1][5] - Historical patterns indicate that as manufacturing activity improves, commodities like copper and aluminum are beginning to outperform gold, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing-related sectors [1] Group 2 - Domestic deflation concerns are easing as signals indicate a reversal in key cyclical factors, including improved export growth and profitability in the midstream manufacturing sector [2] - Recent financial data shows a mixed picture, with a slowdown in social financing growth but a rebound in new RMB loans, indicating potential for increased domestic consumption [2] - The overall inflation data remains weak, but structural improvements in PPI and core CPI suggest a recovery in midstream manufacturing profitability [2] Group 3 - There is an increasing expectation of larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over the labor market rather than inflation, which may support economic stability [3] - The potential for increased manufacturing and real estate investment in the U.S. following interest rate cuts is significant, as historical trends show a rebound in these sectors post-cut [3] - The shift in focus from service sector strength to manufacturing investment could lead to increased demand for intermediate goods [3] Group 4 - The main logic driving market changes is the recovery of global commodity demand and China's exit from deflation, with opportunities emerging in upstream resources and capital goods [5] - As profitability recovers, sectors related to domestic demand, such as food and beverage, tourism, and insurance, are expected to present investment opportunities [5]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 评 相关研究 - 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 冉兆邦 A0230524090003 ranzb@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 (8621)23297818× luozh@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 14 日 居民存款搬家提速驱动市场交投保 持活跃，中国太保拟发行 H 股可转 债 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/9/8-2025/9/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 业 点 非银金融 ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.65%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.73pct。1）本周成交额维持在 2 万亿+高位，两融余额保持 2.3 万亿+。A 股股票成交额自 8 月 13 日后均保持在 ...

在甲骨文引领新一轮人工智能发展乐观情绪中，科技股带领标普和纳指再次向历史高位发起冲锋。 当前，投资者正聚焦下周美联储货币政策会议，市场普遍预计美联储将降息以应对就业市场放缓。资金 流向显示，上周美股基金净流出超100亿美元，有投资者选择落袋为安，市场将密切关注未来货币政策 的任何线索，这将对风险偏好产生冲击，对于权重科技股的走势影响尤为重要。 宽松预期有所升温 上周公布数据显示，美联储两大职责——通胀和就业继续呈现压力迹象，从而给政策选择带来了一些不 确定性。 8月整体 CPI环比上涨 0.4%，高于预期的 0.3%，为今年 1 月以来的最大单月涨幅。同比上涨加快0.2 个 百分点，至 2.9%，与预期一致。核心 CPI（剔除食品和能源价格）环比上涨 0.3%，同比上涨 3.1%，两 项数据均符合市场预期。 就业市场方面，美国劳工统计局（BLS）表示，其对非农就业数据基准修正的初步估算结果为向下调整 91.1 万个岗位，占总就业人数的 0.6%。 值得注意的是，过去 10 年基准修正的绝对平均幅度为 0.2%。 此外，本周首次申领失业救济人数增加 2.7 万人，至 26.3 万人，高于上周的 23.6 万人， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market closed at a precise 3892.74 points, indicating strong market sentiment and anticipation for upcoming events [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a 0.25% rate cut at each remaining meeting this year, which is expected to significantly impact the A-share market [1] - The A-share market's valuation, with a PE ratio of 12.8 times for the CSI 300 index, presents an attractive opportunity compared to US markets, leading to a substantial inflow of foreign capital [1] Group 2 - The three favored sectors in a bull market are technology, cyclical, and financial stocks, with technology benefiting from ample liquidity and high growth potential [2] - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2.15 trillion, indicating strong market confidence and activity [2] Group 3 - The Chinese innovative drug sector is experiencing significant policy support, with the government emphasizing accelerated technology development and commercialization [3] - Collaborations between Chinese companies and international firms, such as the partnership between 3SBio and Pfizer, have resulted in record upfront payments, showcasing the strength of China's innovative drug industry [3] - The Hong Kong stock market's innovative drug sector rose by 2.79% following the announcement of favorable policies, reflecting market confidence [3] Group 4 - The A-share market showed resilience with a weekly increase of 1.52% for the Shanghai Composite Index and a 5.48% rise for the Sci-Tech 50 Index [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut is anticipated to drive significant capital inflows, with a target of maintaining a trading volume above 3 trillion for three consecutive days [4] - Key sectors to watch include technology, particularly in computing power and robotics, as well as cyclical stocks like rare earths and gold [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies suggest holding onto key sectors despite short-term volatility, with a focus on technology stocks and cyclical sectors ahead of the anticipated rate cut [6] - The brokerage sector is positioned for potential growth as market activity increases, with current price-to-book ratios indicating a favorable entry point [6] - Historical trends suggest that market corrections in a bull market present valuable buying opportunities, with foreign capital showing consistent net inflows [6]

（原标题：果然"炸了"！刚刚，重磅来了） 【导读】上半年大卖！银行系股票指数基金保有量规模激增37.9%，上半年销售机构公募基金保有量50强榜单来了 中国基金报记者 李树超 权益资产快速回暖背景下，公募基金保有市场格局大洗牌！ 最新公募基金保有量数据显示，2025年上半年，公募基金销售保有量前十强保持座次不变，蚂蚁基金、招行等头部机构渠道优势突出，权益类基 金保有规模增长势头迅猛；券商系受益于较高风险偏好客群，权益类基金保有规模增幅最大；银行系的股票指数基金保有量规模激增37.9%，彰 显了股票指数基金被市场广泛接受和认可。 一、 蚂蚁、招行增长势头强劲 权益基金保有规模保持两位数增长 9月12日，中基协公布的2025年上半年基金销售机构公募基金保有规模数据显示，蚂蚁基金权益类基金保有规模达8229亿元，上半年环比增幅为 11%，仍然高居榜首位置。 招商银行的权益类基金保有规模为4920亿元，同期增幅高达20%，在银行系机构中居于首位。 与上期数据相比，公募基金销售保有量前十强座次不变，天天基金、工商银行的权益类基金保有规模超3300亿元，建行、中行、交行等位居市场 前列。 券商机构中，中信证券、华泰证券也在 ...

9月11日，中金公司管委会成员、中金财富总裁王建力表示，海外业务扩张的动作已先于战略规划进行 中，未来还将扩大优秀人才储备，以及加大数字化建设。未来2—3年，中国香港有望成为全球规模最大 的跨境财富管理中心，中资金融机构也纷纷瞄准了这一发展机遇，加大财富管理业务的布局。中金的国 际化程度在中资券商中属于领先地位。据半年报披露，中金公司今年上半年境外业务收入同比增长 75.66%，营业利润率也提升了24.16个百分点，境外营收占比达31.37%。中金公司财富管理国际业务负 责人刁智海表示，中金在港的财富管理团队由7年前只有约30多人，扩展现在超过150人左右，包括 70 名客户经理。（券商中国） ...