2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,710 | 510 | 1,610 | -70 | -920 | -6,840 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,640 | -4 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectations are in a game, and nickel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts, and steel prices are oscillating within a range [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There is a short - term reduction in imports, and long - term supply exceeds demand, with prices oscillating [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: The sentiment has peaked, and the futures price has downward momentum [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has a downward driving force, and the futures should be mainly short - allocated [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,200 yuan, with a change of 630 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 98,620 lots, a decrease of 3,755 lots from T - 1 [4]. - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,680 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 75,548 lots, an increase of 6,636 lots from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford mentioned that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with an annual output of about 1.25 million tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][7]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there was market news in May that the ban might start in June 2025, but its authenticity and start time are to be verified [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,440 yuan, with a trading volume of 256,782 lots and a position of 218,416 lots [11]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,200 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,600 yuan [11]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,485 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy's 60,000 - ton lithium salt project in Indonesia is expected to start mass - supplying in Q3 2025. The company also has business layouts in solid - state batteries [13]. - In 2025, the "New Energy Vehicle Going to the Countryside" promotion model catalog included 124 models, 25 more than in 2024, and Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y were on the list for the first time [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,290 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 666,383 lots and a position of 161,192 lots [14]. - The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 34,740 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 134,443 lots and a position of 65,179 lots [14]. Macro and Industry News - From May 26 to June 5, 2025, domestic enterprises won 17 bids for photovoltaic module projects, 5 more than the previous period, with a total procurement capacity of 777.01MW, a decrease of 61.59MW [15]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations exert downward pressure [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the possibility of Sino - US tariff repair [2][11]. - Industrial Silicon: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to upward risks [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged [2][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,570 yuan, down 1,020 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,690 yuan, down 30 yuan. Other data such as trading volume, price spreads, and import profits also showed corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia have entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance and affect production [5][6][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,100 yuan, down 980 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and raw - material prices [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Chile's lithium carbonate export volume changed, with a decrease in exports to China and the US and an increase to South Korea; the industry inventory increased [11][12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,135 yuan, down 145 yuan; the closing price of the PS2507 contract was 34,540 yuan, down 515 yuan. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A Canadian solar - component assembly plant in the US has been put into production [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [18].

Overall Report Information - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated June 5, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations put downward pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,590, with a change of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 117,416, a decrease of 43,954 from T - 1 [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,720, up 90 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 95,686, an increase of 20,639 from T - 1 [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel products, with nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte resource tax rates adjusted to floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [5] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6] - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project successfully produced nickel - iron, and an overseas nickel smelter has resumed production [8] - The Philippines is discussing a ban on nickel ore exports, and there are market rumors about an export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity is yet to be verified [8] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of 300 - series production [9] Lithium Carbonate Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved, and the rebound space may be limited [2][11] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,080, up 1,140 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 413,239, an increase of 108,078 from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 39 yuan/ton. The Chinese government is organizing a new - energy vehicle promotion campaign in rural areas [12][13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Subject to emotional disturbances, the upside space is limited - Polysilicon: It has a weak fundamental pattern [2][15] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract for industrial silicon was 7,280, up 210 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 806,934, an increase of 421,379 from T - 1 [15] - The closing price of the PS2507 contract for polysilicon was 35,055, up 695 from T - 1, and the trading volume was 262,747, an increase of 118,067 from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - Junda Co., Ltd., a photovoltaic company, plans to build a 5GW N - type high - efficiency photovoltaic cell production base in Turkey [16][17] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless steel: 0 - Lithium carbonate: - 1 - Industrial silicon: - 1 - Polysilicon: - 1 [10][13][17]

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：矿价节后快速回落，锂价走势仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面底部弱势震荡 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单超预期大增，盘面具备下跌驱动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,250 | 150 | -920 | -920 | -2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Short - term cost provides support, but weak expectations exert pressure [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between negative feedback and production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate within a range [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: The fundamentals are weak, and downward pressure still exists [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Inventory is accumulating, and the futures price will continue to decline [2][15] - Polysilicon: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [2][15] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, a change of - 1,510 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 145,554 lots, a change of 57,877 lots compared to T - 5 [5] - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,685 yuan, a change of - 190 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, a change of 15,423 lots compared to T - 5 [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel - related products. For example, the tax rate for nickel ore has been raised from 10% to a floating range of 14% - 19% [5] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [8] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 59,800 yuan, a change of - 1,160 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 429,284 lots, a change of 134,714 lots compared to T - 5 [11] - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 59,840 yuan, a change of - 2,460 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 119,089 lots, a change of 69,436 lots compared to T - 5 [11] Macro and Industry News - Samsung SDI and GM plan to add a lithium - iron - phosphate battery production line at their joint - venture plant in Indiana [12][13] - LGES also plans to convert part of its joint - venture plant with GM in Tennessee into a lithium - iron - phosphate battery production line [13] - From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.358 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16% [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2507 contract was 7,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 755 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 456,239 lots, a change of 172,084 lots compared to T - 5 [15] - The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 35,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 490 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 150,575 lots, a change of - 18,647 lots compared to T - 5 [15] Macro and Industry News - The 1 660MW unit of Qiya Xinjiang Group's Changdong Power Generation has the ability to generate electricity, and the 2 unit is under construction [15][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Short - term cost support exists, but weak expectations limit its upward elasticity [4]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to an increasing marginal reduction in production, making a sharp decline difficult [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The inventory reduction speed is slow, and the trend may remain weak [11]. - Industrial silicon: The futures price hits a new low [6]. - Polysilicon: Volatility has increased, and cautious position - holding is recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 120,480 yuan, and the main stainless - steel contract is 12,690 yuan. There are also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, spreads, and import profits [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia have entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance [5][6][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 (neutral) [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract is 58,860 yuan. There are data on trading volume,持仓量, basis, raw - material prices, and lithium - salt prices. The total weekly inventory is 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has decreased [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1 (weak) [13]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2507 contract is 7,215 yuan, and the PS2507 contract is 35,280 yuan. There are data on trading volume,持仓量, basis, prices, profits, and inventory for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The environmental impact report of a 400,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Xinjiang has been approved [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1 (weak) [16].

2025年05月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：非矿政策风险扰动，基本面偏弱制约上方空间 | 4 | | 工业硅：整体走势仍偏弱 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪发酵，关注上方空间 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 5 月 23 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 123,400 | 120 | -200 | -200 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - **Report Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - **Nickel**: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while the economics of conversion may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium salt plant production cuts have not affected the resource end, and the upside remains under pressure [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak pattern persists [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: There is a build - up of warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][13] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,280, with a decrease of 1,950 compared to T - 5. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,870, down 210 from T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel - related products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports [4][5][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,100, down 4,100 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and various price differentials and raw material prices [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ford allowed Nissan to use part of the capacity of its battery factory; a lithium salt enterprise in Jiangxi planned to shut down a plant for maintenance, affecting monthly production by about 1,500 tons [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 7,865, down 625 from T - 5. The PS2507 closing price was 35,860, down 2,560 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price differentials, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: At the 2024 annual general meeting of Tongwei Co., Ltd., the company expressed confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry [13][15] Trend Intensity - **Nickel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15] - **Polysilicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15]

2025年05月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势格局，逢高布空 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单环比增加，关注市场情绪变动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 2）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T- ...