本文来自格隆汇专栏：樊继拓，作者：李畅 一轮牛市中，牛市初期和牛市后期风格比较稳定，但牛市中期风格容易发生波动，即使是非主线板块也可能在牛市主升浪后期领涨。历史上典型案例有： 一是2005年-2007年金融周期牛市中，2007年1-5月牛市主升浪后半段小盘成长走强，纺织服饰、环保、医药生物等非主线板块领涨。二是2013-2015年 TMT牛市中，2014年Q4主升浪后半段大盘价值走强，非银金融、建筑、银行、钢铁等非主线板块领涨。牛市中非主线板块领涨通常出现在牛市主升浪后 期，受到资金层面的影响较大，与业绩兑现关系不大，持续时间通常在1-2个季度。增量资金加速流入后，前期已经累积较多涨幅的主线板块估值通常已 经达到较高水平，承接力量不足，在这一阶段增量资金往往倾向于寻找低估值，高安全边际的行业布局，从热点向低位板块扩散。 （1）2005年-2007年金融周期牛市中，2007年1-5月牛市主升浪后半段小盘成长走强，纺织服饰、环保、医药生物等非主线板块领涨。2005-2007年是金融 周期牛市，市场风格偏大盘蓝筹，整体表现较强的主线板块大多为顺周期行业，如非银金融、有色金属、房地产等。但2007年1-5月牛市主升浪 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential turning point in the production capacity cycle. The easing of interest rates is likely to restore home-buying willingness, while policies related to urban renewal and storage will enhance purchasing power, increasing the probability of stabilization in the real estate market [3][5] - The report highlights that the real estate market has entered a bottoming phase after three consecutive years of decline in sales area, with heightened sensitivity to policy easing. The continuous negative growth in PPI for 35 months has led to a focus on reversing this trend, which is expected to benefit the construction materials sector [3][5] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [5] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5] 3. Leading cyclical construction material companies with bottoming fundamentals, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [5] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of October 17, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 343.2 CNY/ton, down 1.1% week-on-week and down 14.1% year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1231.4 CNY/ton, down 2.7% week-on-week but up 5.8% year-on-year [4][20] Market Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 4.34%. The construction materials index decreased by 4.11%, with sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing experiencing declines of 9.42% and 10.78%, respectively [4][49][53]

Group 1 - The market has shown steady upward movement this year, driven by multiple factors including central bank liquidity and accelerated capital inflow, with expectations for a structural upward trend in the near future [1][2] - Positive market performance in recent months is attributed to robust macroeconomic growth, stable corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, and supportive policies aimed at capital market development [2] - Diverse funding sources are contributing to market inflows, including foreign capital returning, domestic institutions increasing positions, and residents investing in the stock market through funds [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the market remains optimistic, with ongoing policy benefits, economic resilience, and valuation advantages suggesting a potential structural upward trend [3] - Key investment areas include technology growth and resource sectors, with a focus on "new productive forces, self-control, and AI industry trends," as well as opportunities in cyclical commodities due to improved liquidity [3] - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, combining high-dividend, reasonably valued core assets with selective exposure to growth sectors, while being cautious of high valuations in certain segments [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks A-share valuations and industry sentiment, indicating that the overall market is experiencing varied valuation levels across different indices and sectors [1][2]. - Key sectors such as real estate, steel, and IT services are noted for their high PE ratios, suggesting potential overvaluation, while white goods are highlighted as undervalued [1][2]. Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a detailed comparison of PE and PB ratios across major indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.3x and PB at 1.8x, indicating historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively [1][4][5]. - The report identifies industries with PE ratios above the historical 85th percentile, including real estate, steel, and IT services, while white goods are noted for being below the 15th percentile [1][7]. Industry Sentiment Tracking - **New Energy**: The report notes a slight decline in downstream prices for photovoltaic products, while upstream polysilicon prices have increased by 6.3%. The demand for lithium materials remains strong due to stable orders in the traditional peak season [1][2]. - **Real Estate Chain**: Steel prices have decreased, with rebar prices down by 1.7% and iron ore prices down by 1.4%. Cement prices are also under pressure due to insufficient demand [2]. - **Consumer Goods**: Pork prices have seen a slight decline, while liquor prices have stabilized. Agricultural products like corn and wheat have mixed price movements [2]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: Excavator sales have increased by 25.4% year-on-year, driven by infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades. Heavy truck sales have surged by 82.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand [2]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report highlights fluctuations in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, with precious metals seeing significant price increases [2]. Key Industry Valuations - The report lists specific industry valuations, with real estate at a PE of 120.0 and a PB of 16.6, indicating a high valuation relative to historical norms. In contrast, the white goods sector has a PE of 10.4, suggesting it is undervalued [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant progress in the management of industrial small coal-fired boilers and building material kilns in the Northwest region, while also identifying ongoing challenges such as insufficient industrial structure optimization and uneven clean energy substitution [5][7]. Industrial Small Boilers - The total capacity of coal-fired small boilers in the Northwest region is approximately 0.8 million steam tons, with coal consumption around 3.53 million tons as of 2024 [5]. - The capacity and coal consumption of coal-fired industrial small boilers nationwide have decreased by 87% and 82% respectively from 2017 to 2024, but the Northwest still accounts for 12.6% of the national coal consumption from small boilers [7]. - Experts suggest a dual approach of "regional differentiated elimination + end-of-pipe deep governance" to address the challenges, emphasizing tailored strategies for different regions [8]. Building Material Kilns - The brick and tile industry has seen a significant reduction in coal consumption, dropping from 236 million tons to 37 million tons, with the proportion of tunnel kilns increasing from 10% to 90% [10]. - The number of brick enterprises in Gansu has decreased from 973 to 218, and in Xinjiang from over 1,000 to around 300, but remaining capacities still face environmental pressures [10]. - A comprehensive governance plan is proposed, focusing on eliminating outdated production capacity, enhancing environmental performance, and utilizing solid waste [11]. Emission Standards and Regulations - The current boiler emission standards are outdated and do not meet the needs of modern pollution reduction and carbon neutrality goals, particularly in the Northwest region [15]. - There is a need to revise local boiler emission standards to include carbon emission intensity, which would provide clearer guidelines for pollution reduction and carbon neutrality efforts [15].

天眼查App显示，近日，元江盛景基石建材有限责任公司成立，法定代表人为黄盈，注册资本100万人 民币，经营范围为一般项目：建筑用石加工；非金属矿及制品销售；建筑材料销售；水泥制品销售；石 灰和石膏销售；普通货物仓储服务（不含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；租赁服务（不含许可类租 赁服务）。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Group 1 - Chengdu Hengcheng Building Materials Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 2 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Xu Xinhui [1] - The business scope includes sales of building decoration materials, doors and windows, metal doors and windows engineering construction, stair sales, metal products sales, metal structure sales, labor services (excluding labor dispatch), and retail of hardware products [1] Group 2 - The company is authorized to engage in specialized construction operations and construction engineering [1] - The company can only conduct activities that require approval after obtaining the necessary permits from relevant authorities [1] - Specific business activities are subject to approval documents or licenses from relevant departments [1]

天眼查App显示，近日，大竹星河建材经营部（个体工商户）成立，法定代表人为陈圆，注册资本5万 人民币，经营范围为一般项目：建筑工程机械与设备租赁；机械设备租赁；租赁服务（不含许可类租赁 服务）；建筑材料销售；建筑装饰材料销售；建筑砌块销售；建筑用石加工；新型建筑材料制造（不含 危险化学品）；金属结构销售；保温材料销售；五金产品零售；涂料销售（不含危险化学品）；玻璃纤 维增强塑料制品销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，四川昱桐婧衡商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为陈建，注册资本50万人民币， 经营范围为一般项目：五金产品零售；五金产品批发；配电开关控制设备销售；建筑材料销售；劳务服 务（不含劳务派遣）；电线、电缆经营；电子元器件批发；机械电气设备销售；电力电子元器件销售； 电子元器件零售；电子元器件与机电组件设备销售；电子测量仪器销售；电力设施器材销售；电池销 售；电力测功电机销售；电容器及其配套设备销售；普通机械设备安装服务；电子专用设备销售；技术 服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；供应用仪器仪表销售；电气设备销售； 电气信号设备装置销售；特种设备销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 动）（涉及国家规定实施准入特别管理措施的除外）。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，珠海市瑞石轩建材有限公司成立，法定代表人为叶建祥，注册资本10万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：建筑材料销售；建筑装饰材料销售；轻质建筑材料销售；土石方工程施工； 园林绿化工程施工；建筑工程机械与设备租赁；建筑陶瓷制品销售；建筑用金属配件销售；建筑工程用 机械销售；建筑用钢筋产品销售；工程管理服务；砖瓦销售；金属结构销售；五金产品零售；金属矿石 销售；国内货物运输代理；机械设备租赁；安全技术防范系统设计施工服务。（除依法须经批准的项目 外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：建设工程施工；城市建筑垃圾处置（清运）；建设 工程勘察。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批 准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...