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【招银研究】关税大幅缓和,配置以稳为主——宏观与策略周度前瞻(2025.05.12-05.16)
招商银行研究· 2025-05-12 13:33
海外策略:美国经济平稳,美联储按兵不动 美国经济趋势上保持平稳,未来可能受到中美贸易谈判超预期支撑。 一是经济稳步扩张。 亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW模型预测Q2实际GDP年化增速达到2.3%,延续了Q1的平稳增长态势,其中私人消费增速达到3.3%, 剔除库存后的私人投资增速达到3.6%,结构上仅地产及建筑投资在长端利率上行压制下小幅萎缩,其余分项 均在扩张。 二是就业依然稳健。 4月美国新增非农就业人数(17.7万)超出市场预期,失业率稳定在4.2%,已 于4.0-4.2%区间震荡一年之久,周频首次申领失业金人数22.8万,较前值回落1.3万。值得注意的是,当前职位 空缺率(4.3%)已经降至本轮周期最低点,随着空缺职位的消耗,失业率可能向上突破前期箱体。中美贸易 谈判进展超预期,叠加"硬数据"持续给力,美国经济或已在预期层面越过谷底。 美联储于5月议息会议按兵不动,且未提供任何前瞻指引,继续强调政策路径将取决于未来形势。市场对美联 储降息的预期持续降温,年内降息预期收敛至3次合计75bp,首次降息时点7月。考虑到失业率的潜在上行趋 势,以及长端利率的震荡区间,我们认为当前市场预期基本理性。 由于美国经济、就 ...
货币政策“组合拳”稳预期促转型
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-09 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive monetary policy package by the central bank, aimed at balancing market expectations, reducing financing costs, and promoting high-quality economic development through a combination of quantity, price, and structural policies [1][2]. Policy Background - The current Chinese economy is facing dual pressures from both internal and external factors, including U.S. tariffs and structural issues like real estate market adjustments and insufficient technological innovation [2]. - The central bank's policy response is a proactive measure to stabilize expectations and growth, addressing short-term market pressures while facilitating long-term economic transformation [2]. Policy Classification - The ten policies introduced can be categorized into three types: - Quantity-type policies, which include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - Price-type policies, which involve a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, leading to lower financing costs for the real economy [3]. - Structural policies, which include an increase of 300 billion yuan in technology innovation loans and the establishment of 500 billion yuan in service consumption loans, targeting specific sectors for support [4]. Policy Effects - In the short term, the monetary policy aims to stabilize expectations by alleviating liquidity pressures on financial institutions and enterprises through measures like lowering the structural monetary policy tool rate by 0.25 percentage points [5]. - In the long term, the focus shifts to promoting transformation, with increased loan quotas for technology innovation and service consumption aimed at upgrading industries and consumption [6]. Future Outlook - Future efforts should focus on enhancing policy coordination between monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies to create a comprehensive support system for innovation and growth [7]. - There is a need to improve the design of structural tools and ensure that financial institutions are incentivized to support technology innovation and inclusive finance [7].
前四个月,越南吸收外资同比增长近40%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-05-07 16:28
Group 1 - As of April 2025, Vietnam attracted nearly 13.82 billion USD in foreign investment, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% [1] - New registered capital exceeded 5.59 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8% [1] - Additional investment capital reached nearly 6.4 billion USD, which is 3.9 times the same period last year [1] - Actual foreign investment capital amounted to approximately 6.74 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [1] Group 2 - In the first four months, the number of new foreign investment projects was 1,204, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [2] - The number of additional investment projects was 540, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% [2] - The total number of transactions for capital contribution and share purchases was 1,106, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [2] Group 3 - Singapore was the largest investor in Vietnam with over 3.2 billion USD, accounting for 23.5% of total investment, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - South Korea ranked second with over 2.8 billion USD, representing 20.4% of total investment, more than 3.3 times the amount from the same period last year [1] - Foreign investors have invested in 18 out of 21 sectors of the national economy, with the manufacturing sector receiving 8.9 billion USD, accounting for 64.6% of total registered investment, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [2] Group 4 - The real estate sector attracted 2.83 billion USD, accounting for 20.5% of total registered investment, a year-on-year increase of 61.9% [2] - The top three provinces for foreign investment were Bac Ninh, Dong Nai, and Ho Chi Minh City, with Bac Ninh receiving over 2.69 billion USD, representing 19.5% of total investment [2] - Ho Chi Minh City saw a registered investment amount exceeding 1.48 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 77.7% [2]
4月PMI数据点评:外需对经济的冲击开始显现
Soochow Securities· 2025-04-30 10:31
Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for April is 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, while the construction PMI is at 51.9%, also down 1.5 percentage points[1] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is the largest among the three sectors, falling below the 50% threshold, signaling external demand's impact on the economy[1] Group 2: External Demand Impact - Concerns over tariffs have materialized, with the April manufacturing PMI drop exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 percentage points[1] - The April manufacturing PMI's month-on-month decline of 1.5 percentage points is the third largest for this period in the last decade, following declines of 2.1 and 2.7 percentage points in April 2022 and 2023, respectively[1] - The manufacturing production index fell by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, while the new orders index decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, primarily due to a drop in export orders[1] Group 3: Employment and Pricing Trends - The employment index in manufacturing decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, while the construction employment index fell significantly to 37.8%, the lowest on record[2] - The input price index for raw materials dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 47%, while the output price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating greater pressure on output prices compared to input prices[2] - The textile and equipment manufacturing sectors, which are more reliant on external demand, experienced greater declines in PMI compared to high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that external demand pressures may increase in May and June due to tariff changes and global manufacturing trends[1] - To counteract the impact of declining exports, boosting service demand is highlighted as a critical strategy, requiring more policy support to enhance overall economic activity[2] - Upcoming growth stabilization policies are expected to be implemented in the second quarter, focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to mitigate export impacts[2]
央企专业化整合加速推进 深康佳A控股股东拟变更
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-04-08 22:27
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a potential professional integration involving Deep Kangjia A by its controlling shareholder, Overseas Chinese Town Group, aims to optimize resource allocation among state-owned enterprises [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Deep Kangjia A, established in May 1980, is a technology-driven industrial group focusing on electronic technology, with its main shareholder being Overseas Chinese Town Group [6]. - The company operates in various sectors, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, and PCB circuit boards, and has been focusing on the semiconductor industry in recent years [6]. Group 2: Recent Developments - The proposed integration may lead to a change in the controlling shareholder, but the actual controller will remain the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council [4]. - Deep Kangjia A has been experiencing a decline in performance, with an expected loss of 2.65 billion to 2.95 billion yuan for 2024 due to the exit from non-core businesses [6]. Group 3: Industry Context - The trend of professional integration among state-owned enterprises has been accelerating, with several recent examples of asset restructuring [8]. - The State Council's emphasis on optimizing state-owned capital and promoting strategic restructuring indicates a broader push for efficiency and competitiveness in the industry [9].
高盛、富达看好A股,外资做多中国热情创四年新高
Jie Mian Xin Wen· 2025-03-26 11:13
高盛、富达看好A股,外资做多中国热情创四年新 高 他还对界面新闻表示,中国科技股的亮眼表现是由基本面驱动的,未来上涨动能会往外扩张,成为 外资更加关注中国的关键催化剂之一,从而吸引更多国际资本回到中国股市。 尽管受外部贸易环境不确定性的影响,但今年迄今中国股市是全球表现最佳的市场之一,尤其是离 岸中资概念股。近期高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗、瑞银纷纷上调中国股票评级,认为中国资产的估值更具 吸引力。 周三,高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津发布名为《中国已经回归》的报告,重申A股本轮涨势将会 比去年9月时更加持久。 刘劲津表示,海外投资者对中国股市的兴趣和参与度已经上涨到近四年新高。从目前来看,特朗普 关税对于A股的冲击没有其第一任期时那么大,同时,中国以AI为代表的科技行业出现结构性增长机 会,房地产等传统经济行业也出现了复苏的萌芽,这使高盛对中国经济增长前景更为乐观. 同日,富达国际也表达了看好中国股市的观点。该公司基金经理George Efstathopoulos在一场研讨 会上表示,自2024年四季度中国政府推出新一轮刺激政策以来,经济数据明显改善,货币和财政政策立 场更加明确,企业盈利也出现改善。在房地产领域, ...
经济数据与当下宏观热点
2025-03-18 01:38
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic performance in early 2025, focusing on various sectors including retail, fixed asset investment, real estate, industrial production, and employment data [2][4][5][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Recovery Signs**: The economic data for January and February 2025 shows signs of recovery, with retail sales increasing by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year [2]. - **Consumer Goods Performance**: Essential consumer goods like food and clothing saw significant growth, with food sales up 11.5% and clothing up 3.3%. Optional consumer goods also improved, with cosmetics up 4.4% and sports goods up 25% [2][4]. - **Fixed Asset Investment Growth**: Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment, which rose by 9.95% [2][5]. - **Real Estate Sector**: Real estate investment showed a reduced negative growth of -9.8%, with sales area decline narrowing to -5.1% [2][7]. - **Industrial Production**: Industrial value added increased by 5.9%, indicating stable industrial production levels, confirming that the third quarter of last year was the GDP growth low point [2][8]. - **Employment Concerns**: The urban unemployment rate reached 5.4% in February, the highest since March 2023, indicating ongoing economic pressures [2][9]. - **Export Performance**: Exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January and February, a significant drop from 10.7% in December 2024, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and tariff impacts on exports to the U.S. [2][14][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Policy Changes**: New consumer policies in 2025 emphasize mobilizing various sectors to stabilize the housing market and enhance income, with a focus on tourism and emerging industries [2][11]. - **Childcare Subsidies**: Some regions have introduced childcare subsidies to attract residents and support the real estate market, indicating a broader strategy to boost population growth [2][12]. - **Financial Data**: Social financing in February exceeded 2 trillion, reflecting strong government bond issuance and a historical high for the period [2][19][21]. - **Monetary Supply Trends**: M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a lack of significant change in corporate liquidity, suggesting stable internal financing demand [2][22]. - **Policy Expectations**: Upcoming government bond issuances and potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to support macroeconomic conditions [2][23].
35岁门槛,要改?
投资界· 2025-03-14 07:43
以下文章来源于南风窗 ,作者赵靖含 南风窗 . 冷静地思考,热情地生活。 错配感。 作者 | 赵靖含 编辑 | 阿树 来源 | 南风窗 (ID:SouthReviews) 在35岁追上来之前,汤妍终于上岸了。 她心惊肉跳地回望过去的职业生涯,名校本硕毕业,从中小厂产品经理到阿里系P7,一 路过关斩将,在杭州置业买房,也目睹互联网从意气风发到"裁员广进"。 5年前,她觉得大厂能给她更多安全感,但30岁、35岁,年龄危机步步紧逼,心态发生 了逆转。 两会期间,全国人大代表郑功成表示,延迟退休后尽快遏制35岁就业歧视现象。 这给社会传递了一种信号:35岁危机背后的就业困境,的确到了该破除的紧迫时刻了, 老龄化趋势不可避免,就业市场需要对经验丰富的"大龄求职者"宽容一点,公平一点。 身在职场,35岁是一个临界点,职场晋升空间在萎缩,投简历被淘汰风险增加。因此, 这个非整数年龄的到来,被广泛称为"35岁危机"。 面对"35岁焦虑",汤妍觉得,与其等着被"大环境"优化,不如主动出击——离开大厂, 考编。在她看来,除了前途相对稳定以外,更关键的是公平。 考公考编普遍适用双盲机制,即面试官和考生彼此都不知道对方的真实身份,面 ...