20251125申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能区间波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 | | | | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-11-25 宏观面预期反复但稳定，基本金属震荡 整理 有⾊观点：宏观⾯预期反复但稳定，基本⾦属震荡整理 交易逻辑：美国此前未公布的数据陆续发布，9月非农新增就业高于市场 预期，一度压低12月美联储降息预期并推高美元指数，但周末前威廉姆斯 表态偏鸽派重新提振市场信心，12月美联储降息预期升温，整体来看，宏 观面整体延续预期反复但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传 导。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩 大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰 动继续支撑基本金属价格，但宏观预期反复及需求一般限制价格上行高 度，基本金属维持震荡整理，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储内部存在分歧，铜价⾼位盘整 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压 铝观点：库存延续去化，铝价窄幅震荡 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡 锌观点：出⼝窗⼝打开，锌价⾼ ...

文字早评 2025/11/25 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话； 2、央行：11 月 25 日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年 期； 3、11 月以来，恒生科技 ETF 合计净申购份额已经超过 250 亿份，连续 2 个月净申购在 200 亿份以上； 有机构将目前行情视作"进入布局区"； 4、工业富联：公司未向市场下调第四季度利润目标。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.29%/-0.64%/-0.95%/-1.93%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.60%/-1.33%/-2.94%/-5.91%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.86%/-1.77%/-3.78%/-6.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-0.30%/-0.31%/-0.63%。 【策略观点】 经过近期的持续下跌后，指数有望阶段性企稳。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长 仍是市场主线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL 主力合约收 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' dovish stance on the labor market has increased market expectations of a December rate cut, boosting risk - asset sentiment [1][2][10][13] - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders is significant for mitigating local risks and resolving ambiguous issues [2][17] - Various commodities have different market conditions, with some in a state of supply - demand imbalance and others affected by policy and external factors [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials Waller and Daly support a December rate cut, increasing market rate - cut expectations and risk appetite [10] - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and their trend depends on the Fed's stance. Gold price volatility has increased due to internal Fed differences [10] - Investment advice: Gold prices will continue to oscillate with increased volatility [11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials Waller and Daly worry about the labor market and support a December rate cut, but official economic data lags, and there is still room for short - term rate - cut expectation games [12][13] - The VIX index remains above 20, and market volatility has not fully subsided, but market sentiment has improved [13] - Investment advice: Adopt a generally bullish approach and wait for market volatility to decrease [14] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, high - tech industry sales revenue increased by 13.6% year - on - year, with high - tech services and manufacturing maintaining double - digit growth [15] - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders and the Fed's dovish signal have boosted global risk assets [17] - Investment advice: Long - position investors can slightly increase their exposure [18] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net injection of 557 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The market still expects real - estate stabilization policies, and bond yields rose slightly [19] - The inter - delivery spread of Treasury bond futures is narrowing. As the policy window approaches the end, the bond market may turn bearish [19][20] - Investment advice: The bond market may turn from oscillation to bearish. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [21] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export inspection report met expectations, with 799,000 tons of US soybeans inspected for export in the week ending November 20 [22] - Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased to 1.1515 million tons, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [24][25] - Investment advice: Due to high inventory and cost support, soybean meal futures prices are expected to oscillate [25] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the national average construction machinery start - up rate was 45.56%, with a 1.4% month - on - month increase [26] - 227 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation [27] - Steel prices have rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have limited changes. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices [28] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of November 21, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils increased by 0.10 million tons month - on - month and 253,000 tons year - on - year [29] - Palm oil is under supply pressure, and soybean oil is affected by palm oil and US soybean oil [31] - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to continue to decline, and the market is waiting for MPOA's production estimate for November 1 - 20 [31] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is weak, with production increasing and some coal mines reducing prices [32] - Coke market expectations have weakened due to falling coking coal prices, and demand is also weakening [33] - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to downstream replenishment in the coking coal market, and coke will follow the coking coal trend [34] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of November 24, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and there was a regional supply shortage [34] - LME lead prices stabilized around the MA60, and domestic lead futures funds' attention declined [35] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - As of November 24, domestic zinc inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory increased slightly [36] - There is a risk of a medium - term squeeze in LME zinc, and domestic demand has not improved significantly [37] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, hold long - short position spreads and short - term domestic - foreign spreads [37] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business by MMG is subject to EU review, and the review time is uncertain [38] - An Indonesian MHP project is expected to cut production by 6,000 metal tons in December, which will improve the supply - demand balance to some extent [39] - Investment advice: Short - position holders can gradually stop losses, and consider lightly - weighted long - position entry at low prices [39] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate shipments in Q3 2025 reached a record high, and these shipments will arrive in China in Q4 [40] - The futures exchange has increased handling fees and restricted daily opening positions, and the market is under pressure [41] - Investment advice: In the short term, consider short - selling at high prices, as the supply - demand balance may change at the end of the year and in Q1 next year [42] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Ivanhoe Mines and Qatar cooperate in African mineral exploration, and Tibet Yulong Copper's technical transformation project is put into operation [43][44] - The Fed's dovish stance has a wavering impact on copper prices, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down [44] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, copper prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [45] 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia's Tuapse refinery has resumed operation, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine negotiation [46] - Oil prices are oscillating, and in the long term, trade flows may recover, but there is a possibility of short - term supply reduction [47] - Investment advice: Oil prices will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [48] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of November 24, asphalt factory and social inventories decreased, but supply is expected to increase [49] - The asphalt market fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, and it will maintain an oscillatory adjustment in the short term [49] - Investment advice: Asphalt will oscillate in the short term [50] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - On November 24, methanol prices in the Taicang market rose sharply due to news of Iranian plant shutdowns [51][52] - The current price increase is a rebound, and the 01 contract fundamentals will not change significantly [52] - Investment advice: Maintain the view of short - selling after the rebound and wait for a better entry opportunity [52] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On November 24, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and downstream demand did not improve [53] - Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak, with no positive support in the future [53] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market will remain weak in the short term, and pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [54] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On November 24, the PVC powder market price oscillated strongly, but downstream procurement was inactive [55] - PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is restricted by the real - estate market, but the export potential pressure has dissipated [56] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and consider long - term layout for far - term contracts [56] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In October 2025, urea imports increased by 10.29% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 12.30% month - on - month [58] - Urea prices are oscillating, and inventory is decreasing. Supply may increase in the short term, and demand is slightly accelerating [59] - Investment advice: The 01 contract will operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton, and inventory data is an important reference [60] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of November 24, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports increased, and the supply - demand situation has limited marginal changes [61][62] - The styrene market is affected by overseas markets, and the upward space is limited [62] - Investment advice: The market is under pressure due to overseas oil - blending logic weakening and port inventory accumulation [63] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of November 24, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and the futures price rose slightly [64] - Soda ash supply is expected to increase, and demand is average. The spot price provides some support [64] - Investment advice: In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium term, adopt a bearish approach and short - sell far - term contracts at high prices [64] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On November 24, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly, but the futures price rose due to production line shutdown news [65] - Glass valuation is low, and the 01 contract is under pressure, but there is a risk of short - covering rebound [65] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the support around 950 yuan/ton for the 01 contract and the risk of short - covering rebound [65]

长江商报消息 深耕有色金属领域的龙头企业中金岭南（000060.SZ）又有新动作。 11月23日，中金岭南发布公告，拟以自有资金7.42亿元现金收购相关少数股东股权，最终实现对山东中 金岭南铜业有限责任公司（下称"中金铜业"）的100%穿透控股。 长江商报记者注意到，中金岭南经营业绩持续稳健增长。2025年前三季度，公司实现营收485.1亿元， 同比增长11.81%；归母净利润8.41亿元，同比增长5.18%。 而技术创新则是其业绩增长的核心支撑，近些年中金岭南持续加大研发投入。2023年—2025年前三季 度，近三年时间公司研发费用累计达12.66亿元。截至2025年上半年，公司拥有专利总数达527项。 增强铜冶炼板块控制权 根据中金岭南发布的公告，公司拟以自有资金7.42亿元现金收购相关少数股东股权，最终实现对中金铜 业的100%穿透控股。 此次收购源于2023年中金岭南的关键战略布局——通过破产重整方式并购山东东营方圆系企业，一举切 入核心铜冶炼领域。 为推进重整进程，公司当时引入中国信达、农银投资、光曜致新三家财务投资人，共同搭建了中金荣晟 持股平台，形成多方协同的投资架构。在后续整合过程中，中金岭南 ...

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry Group Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone as the first private enterprise from Tongliao City to go public, filling a gap in local listings for over a decade [1][2]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry is the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China and operates the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum smelting plant in North China, located in Hohhot City [2]. - The company's subsidiary, Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan, is set to receive the national-level green factory honor from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2024 [2]. Market Performance - On its first trading day, Innovation Industry opened at HKD 15.2, a significant increase of 38.31% from the issue price of HKD 10.99, indicating strong market confidence [1]. - Prior to the listing, the company showed robust market interest, with Futu's dark pool data reporting a closing price of HKD 13.85, up 26.02% from the issue price, resulting in a profit of HKD 1,430 per lot [2]. - The public offering phase saw an impressive oversubscription rate of approximately 447.20 times, with nearly 145,000 valid applications [2]. Economic Impact - The successful listing of Innovation Industry is a key achievement for Tongliao City in promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, as well as facilitating local enterprises' access to international capital markets [2]. - This event not only injects new momentum into the company's development but also showcases the strength and potential of Tongliao enterprises to the global capital market, contributing to the city's goal of building a modern industrial system and a multi-tiered capital market [2].

Economic Overview - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption remains strong, benefiting from tax incentives and subsidies, while textile and film consumption is weak[7] - Real estate sales and land market show signs of fatigue, with infrastructure special bonds fully issued but project progress lagging[7] - Exports to South Korea are recovering, while import demand weakens post shopping festival[7] Market Performance - Major global asset prices have declined, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 5.1%, the largest decline among major indices[9] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.9%[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 4.06%[9] Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000[12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%[12] - Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant internal disagreement regarding future monetary policy direction[8] Investment Strategies - ETF inflows have increased significantly to 503 billion, while foreign and financing funds have seen outflows[15] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with average daily turnover dropping to 1.9 trillion[14] - The risk appetite remains low, with the overall market sentiment declining[14] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations for investments in internet and computing sectors[35] - The financial sector is poised for recovery, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks[35] - Consumer stocks are seen as undervalued, with potential growth in food and beverage sectors[35]

11月24日，宏达股份跌5.43%，截至发稿，报10.45元/股，成交5.23亿元，换手率2.39%，总市值276.05 亿元。 资料显示，四川宏达股份有限公司位于四川省成都市高新区交子大道499号中海国际中心H座14楼，成 立日期1994年6月30日，上市日期2001年12月20日，公司主营业务涉及矿山开采、有色金属冶炼、磷化 工产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：锌金属及副产品45.55%，磷铵盐系列产品33.44%，复肥 产品11.82%，合成氨5.16%，其他(补充)3.27%，其他产品及服务0.76%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，创金合信基金旗下1只基金重仓宏达股份。创金合信中证1000增强A（003646）三季度持有 股数10.83万股，占基金净值比例为1.28%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约6.5万元。 创金合信中证1000增强A（003646）成立日期2016年12月22日，最新规模3955.41万。今年以来收益 25.84%，同类排名1429/4208；近一年收益23.31%，同类排名1304/3981；成立以来收益94.06%。 创金合信中证1000增强A（00364 ...

11月24日，宏达股份跌5.43%，截至发稿，报10.45元/股，成交5.21亿元，换手率2.38%，总市值276.05 亿元。 资料显示，四川宏达股份有限公司位于四川省成都市高新区交子大道499号中海国际中心H座14楼，成 立日期1994年6月30日，上市日期2001年12月20日，公司主营业务涉及矿山开采、有色金属冶炼、磷化 工产品的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：锌金属及副产品45.55%，磷铵盐系列产品33.44%，复肥 产品11.82%，合成氨5.16%，其他(补充)3.27%，其他产品及服务0.76%。 从宏达股份十大流通股东角度 截至发稿，闫冬累计任职时间6年253天，现任基金资产总规模221.18亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 456.3%， 任职期间最差基金回报-40.23%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，鹏华基金旗下1只基金位居宏达股份十大流通股东。鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A （014942）三季 ...

| 02788 创新实业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 15.200 ↑ +4.210 +38.31% | | 等待开盘 11/24 09:20 | | * 2 8 9 日 0 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 15.200 | 开盘价 15.200 | 成交量 5433.7万 | | 最低价 15.200 | 昨收价 10.990 | 成交额 7.39亿 | | 平均价 13.601 | 市空室 M 14.43 | 总市值 304亿 (…) | | 振 幅 -- | 市盈率(静) 13.56 | 总股本 20亿 | | 换手率 2.72% | 市净率 13.868 | 流通值 304亿 | | 52周最高 15.200 | 委 比 -27.76% | 流通股 20亿 | | 52周最低 15.200 | 量 比 -- | 超 主 500股 | | 历史最高 15.200 | 股息ITM -- | 股息率ITM -- | | 历史景低 15.200 | 股息LFY -- | 股息率LFY -- | 创新实业(2788.HK)今日首日在港挂牌上市，高开38.31%，报15.2港元。 ...