来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：市场投研资讯） ⭕ 事件描述 港股市场方面，恒生指数上涨0.22%报26446.56，恒生科技上涨0.91%报6043.61，恒生中国企业指数上涨0.21%报9384.76，恒生港股通高股息率指数回调 0.16%。A股市场方面，上证指数回调0.26%，沪深300上涨0.24%，万得全A上涨0.09%。红利指数回调0.42%。 行业主题方面：中信港股通一级行业中，综合（+7.69%）、煤炭（+2.45%）、电力设备及新能源（+2.24%）领涨，钢铁（-1.58%）、轻工制造 （-1.47%）、有色金属（-1.18%）领跌；概念方面，未盈利生物科技指数（+15.63%）、锂电池指数（+5.62%）、抗肿瘤指数（+5.08%）领涨，中广核指 数（-4.35%）、婴童指数（-4.13%）、影视传媒指数（-3.38%）领跌。 2025年9月15日，港股市场大市成交额达到2901.9亿港元，南向资金净买入144.73亿港元。港股三大股指上涨，从宏观因素来看主要是因为：2025年9月14 日，中美双方在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。讨论议题包括美单边关税措施、滥用出口管制及TikTok等， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that on September 15, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw a total trading volume of HKD 290.19 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 14.473 billion. The three major stock indices in Hong Kong experienced an upward trend, primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including a meeting between China and the U.S. in Madrid on September 14, 2025, discussing trade issues, which boosted market sentiment [1][4][7] - The report indicates that the market anticipates a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94.2% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, which is expected to enhance global liquidity and positively impact the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to reach new highs, driven by three core directions: the potential growth in AI technology and new consumption, continuous inflows of southbound funds, and the impact of U.S. rate cuts on global liquidity [7][8][9] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22% to 26,446.56, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.91% to 6,043.61, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.21% to 9,384.76. In contrast, the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index saw a decline of 0.16% [4][7] - The report highlights that within the industry sectors, the top performers included Comprehensive (+7.69%), Coal (+2.45%), and Power Equipment & New Energy (+2.24%), while the worst performers were Steel (-1.58%), Light Industry Manufacturing (-1.47%), and Nonferrous Metals (-1.18%) [4][7] - The report also mentions that the automotive sector benefited from a new initiative by the China Automotive Industry Association aimed at standardizing payment practices, which is expected to support small and medium enterprises and stabilize the industry chain [7][8]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, construction, or testing results. It primarily focuses on market trends, fund flows, and sectoral allocations without delving into quantitative modeling or factor-based strategies[1][2][3]. - The document provides detailed insights into fund positioning, sectoral preferences, and ETF flows, but it does not include any quantitative factor construction, modeling processes, or backtesting results[4][5][6]. - The content emphasizes market dynamics, such as the high equity allocation of active funds, sectoral shifts (e.g., TMT and healthcare), and ETF inflows/outflows, but lacks any mention of quantitative factor definitions, formulas, or performance metrics[7][8][9].

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20250908-20250912） 本周热度变化最大行业为电力设备、房地产 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为赛马概念、氟化工概念、PVDF 概念、广 东自贸区、有机硅概念。 ❖ 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 85%、99%、 93%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：电力设备、电子、计算机、轻工制造、医药生物、国防军工、银 行、商贸零售、建筑材料、传媒、煤炭、基础化工；位于估值历史 20%以下的 有食品饮料、非银金融、交通运输、综合、钢铁； 申万二级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，目前处于历史分位数 80%以上的二级 行业有化学制药、航天装备、冶钢原料、生物制品、国有大型银行、风电设备、 半导体、一般零售、环保设备、航空机场、服装家纺、元件、汽车服务、商用 车、旅游及景区、橡胶、装修建材、房地产服务、专业连锁、动物保健、多元 金融、化学纤维、光学光电子、广告营销、特钢、其他电子、电子化学品、玻 璃玻纤。 ❖ ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced increased volatility with a notable adjustment in the small-cap growth sector, while value stocks outperformed growth stocks [3][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.2%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.8%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.4% [3] Bond Market - Bond yields saw a slight decline, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.83% and the 30-year yield down by 3 basis points to 2.11% [4] International Market - The U.S. labor market showed weakness with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5][10] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.4%, outperforming A-shares due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continued inflow of capital [5] Sector Performance - Notable sectors included power equipment and new energy (up 5.91%), non-ferrous metals (up 2.26%), and pharmaceuticals (up 1.49%), while defense and military (-11.61%) and computers (-6.76%) underperformed [7][9] - The market saw a shift in capital flow, with low-growth sectors like power equipment and new energy performing well due to high-low switching of funds [9] Fund Issuance - A total of 38 public funds were issued last week, accumulating 27.6 billion units, with a noticeable shift towards equity funds [13]

Market Performance - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.38%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.27%[3] - The total market turnover was 20,039.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,481.28 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - A total of 2,442 stocks rose while 2,769 stocks fell across the market[3] Sector and Style Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Communication (3.31%), Media (1.87%), and Electronics (1.52%)[21] - The worst-performing sectors were Power Equipment & New Energy (-1.23%), Nonferrous Metals (-0.91%), and Basic Chemicals (-0.82%)[21] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with large-cap growth leading small-cap growth[21] Fund Flow Insights - On September 10, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 56.20 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 118.26 billion yuan and small orders experiencing a net inflow of 206.52 billion yuan[25] - Major ETFs like the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant decreases in turnover, with changes of -11.96 billion yuan and -3.23 billion yuan respectively[29] Global Market Overview - On September 10, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.01% and the Nikkei 225 Index up 0.87%[32] - European indices showed mixed results, with the DAX Index down 0.37% and the FTSE 100 Index up 0.23%[33] - In the US, major indices also rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.43%[33]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with significant positions in non-ferrous metals (15.3%), non-bank financials (12.9%), and comprehensive sectors (7.3%) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -3.0%, while the average return over the past month was 3.1% [3][10] - The report identifies the top-performing industries for the week as electric equipment and new energy (2.4%), food and beverage (0.8%), and pharmaceuticals (0.5%), while the worst performers were defense and military (-11.9%), computers (-9.8%), and electronics (-9.7%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The report provides a detailed performance review of CITIC primary industries, indicating that the average weekly return was -3.0% and the average monthly return was 3.1% [10] - The top three industries by weekly performance were electric equipment and new energy (2.4%), food and beverage (0.8%), and pharmaceuticals (0.5%) [11] - The bottom three industries were defense and military (-11.9%), computers (-9.8%), and electronics (-9.7%) [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [14][15] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include retail, media, computers, and defense and military, all exceeding the 95th percentile in PB valuation [15][16] Strategy Performance - The report outlines the performance of various strategies, with the composite strategy yielding a cumulative return of 20.2% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry benchmark by 2.3% [3] - The highest excess return strategy was the industry profitability tracking strategy (S1), with an excess return of 5.1% compared to the benchmark [3] - The report indicates a shift in strategy allocations, increasing positions in upstream cyclical and pharmaceutical sectors while reducing exposure to TMT, consumer, and midstream cyclical sectors [3] Current Industry Rankings - The report ranks industries based on profitability expectations, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and agriculture being the top three [18] - The implied sentiment momentum strategy ranks communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics as the top three industries based on market sentiment indicators [22] - The macroeconomic style rotation strategy identifies comprehensive finance, computers, communication, defense and military, electronics, and media as the top six industries based on macroeconomic indicators [25]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250901-20250905） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.81%，中证 500 下跌 1.85%，中证 1000 下跌 2.59%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 19.73%，相对于上周下跌了 3.32%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 23.4%，相对于上周下跌了 2.33%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 25.94%，相对于上周下跌了 0.55%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 20.27%，相 对于上周下跌了 3.29%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 8 月 25 日到 2025 年 8 月 29 日正 面信号共出现了 2442 次，未来高点平均胜率为 28.76%，负面信号出现 3750 次，未来低点平均胜率为 70.79%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生等权重、恒生指数、恒生可持续发展企业 指数、恒生香港 35 出现看多信号，其余宽基信号为中性。 出现连续看多信号股票、特殊看多信号股票和券商金股出现看多信号股票见正 文。 更多具体详 ...

- The report does not include any quantitative models or factors related to construction, testing, or evaluation[2][3][4]

Market Performance - On September 5, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 6.55%[2] - The total market turnover was 23,483.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,335.33 billion yuan from the previous trading day[2] - A total of 4,856 stocks rose while 473 stocks fell across the market[2] Sector and Style Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Electric Equipment and New Energy (6.28%), Communication (5.31%), and Nonferrous Metals (4.42%)[18] - The worst-performing sectors were Banking (-0.96%), Oil and Petrochemicals (0.42%), and Transportation (0.47%)[18] - In terms of investment style, Consumer stocks outperformed, followed by Cyclical and Growth stocks[18] Capital Flow - On September 5, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 445.30 billion yuan, with large orders contributing 433.02 billion yuan and small orders continuing to see outflows of 199.98 billion yuan[3] - The major ETFs saw a decrease in trading volume, with the top ETFs experiencing declines ranging from 1.15 billion yuan to 25.60 billion yuan compared to the previous day[26] Global Market Trends - Major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.43% and the Nikkei 225 Index up 1.03%[30] - On September 4, European indices showed mixed results, with the DAX Index rising by 0.74% and the CAC40 Index falling by 0.27%[30] - U.S. stock indices also saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.77% and the S&P 500 rising by 0.83%[30]