地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近3%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，升破4590美元大关，再创历史新高。 涨幅扩大至4%，价格继续位于83美元的历史高位水平，逼近历史新高。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 2小时 3小时 4小时 | 1月 3月 63.96 63.61 63.36 62.75 62.15 61.55 60.94 60.34 A 59.74 成交量 VOL: 0.000 400.00 ...

朋友们，早上看到白银T D单日涨了3.03%，是不是觉得这波涨幅挺让人意外的？其实近期贵金属的波动里藏着不少市场的客观特征，咱们今天就借 着这波银价的异动，聊聊这类行情里的规律——看懂这些，咱们面对波动也能更淡定些。 第一大点单日大涨3%是短期脉冲？这符合贵金属的波动特征吗？ 今天白银T D直接涨了3.03%，单日涨幅超过3%在贵金属行情里不算罕见。 这种"内外盘节奏错位"是国内市场的短期特征，后续价格大概率会回归联动，不是吗？ 第三大点急涨后波动率会放大，这是贵金属的行情规律？ 今天白银T D的振幅达到了4.4%（从最低18105到最高19032），比平时的1.5%左右放大了不少。 我们翻了2025年以来的白银走势数据这一年里共出现12次"单日涨超3%"的情况，其中8次都是"短期资金集中进场"带来的脉冲式上涨——比如去年7 月那次，单日涨3.2%后，后续2天震荡调整了0.8%，和这次的节奏很像。 这种"单日急涨后震荡"，其实是贵金属行情里的常见波动，咱们不用因为一次大涨就过度兴奋，对吗？ 第二大点内外盘联动但节奏有差，这是国内市场的独特特征？ 今天伦敦银现只涨了0.14%，但沪银期货涨了3.17%，国内银价 ...

美国1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，突袭委首都加拉加斯等地，强行控制马杜罗夫妇并将 他们带至美国。 特朗普1月4日宣称，美国已"掌控"委内瑞拉。马杜罗夫妇5日在纽约一家联邦地区法院出庭，拒绝美方 所谓"犯罪"指控。国际社会广泛谴责美国严重侵犯委内瑞拉主权。委内瑞拉最高法院1月3日命令时任副 总统罗德里格斯担任代理总统。1月5日，罗德里格斯在委内瑞拉全国代表大会宣誓就任代总统。 今日周六，白银市场休市。本周白银价格走势呈现倒"v"形式，在芝商所上调保证金引发抛售后，银价 持续承压。周四更是一度暴跌超5%，关键趋势线面临失守风险，周五在连续两天下跌后小幅上涨。长 期来看白银在工业和战略资源储备属性的加持下"牛市"格局并未改变。 【要闻速递】 作为新年的开端，本周地缘方面突降重磅消息，美国对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，强行控制马杜罗 夫妇并将他们带到美国。地缘局势剧烈动荡，"黑天鹅"一度引发了市场避险需求激增，白银价格在周一 暴走涨超5%。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 目前存在的风险是，看涨势头可能不够强劲，不足以在更大的回调之前将白银推至新的趋势高点。一旦 趋势的新峰值达到84.03美元，抛售压力大大增加 ...

投资需求方面，美联储宽松预期持续增强，美元走弱、美国国债收益率回落，将推动贵金属整体需求回 升。白银与黄金同属避险资产，在低利率环境下具有配置价值。 智通财经APP获悉，周五，白银概念上涨，Endeavour Silver(EXK.US)涨超8%，First Majestic Silver(AG.US)涨超4%，Silvercorp Metals(SVM.US)涨超2%。消息面上，现货白银大涨近3%，逼近80美 元。展望2026年，市场观点普遍认为白银具备较强的上涨逻辑支撑：工业领域对白银的需求，尤其是在 太阳能电池板、电子产品和电动汽车方面的需求，叠加当前白银库存短缺，短期内供需矛盾难以缓解， 为价格提供有力支撑。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

贵金属2026年报 ——贵金属仍处上行通道， 拐点关注美联储政策变化与美国经济改善 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-12-31 02 宏观面 目录 01 后市研判 03 基本面 后市PA研RT判01 Ø 2025年贵金属市场表现亮眼，黄金和白银均呈现加速上涨格局，不断突破历史新高。年内国际金价从2600美元/盎司上涨至最高4550美元/盎司 以上，涨幅70%以上；国际银价从29美元/盎司上涨至最高82美元/盎司上方，涨幅高达180%以上。2025年贵金属价格上涨的逻辑不断切换，从 上半年市场交易对等关税及美国经济衰退担忧带来的避险需求，到下半年交易降息预期带来的流动性宽松预期，叠加白银实物供需紧缺驱动 资金流入贵金属市场，价格加速上行，波动显著放大。在金价上涨的过程中，白银涨幅遥遥领先，实现了金银比的修复回归。 Ø 展望2026年，当前支撑贵金属价格上涨的逻辑并没有发生改变，贵金属仍处上行通道。美国财政货币双宽松的背景下，美元信用持续受损， 去美元化加速资产储备的多元化，全球央行延续购金将继续支撑金价，重点关注中国央行购金行为；而流动性宽松仍将是2026年 ...

晚间（1月8日），美国三大股指集体下跌，纳指更是在开盘后跳水，截至收盘，道指收盘上涨270.03 点，涨幅为0.55%，报49266.11点；纳指跌104.26点，跌幅为0.44%，报23480.02点；标普500指数涨0.52 点，涨幅为0.01%，报6921.45点。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数在低开后爆发，截至收盘，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数涨1.09%。哔哩哔哩涨逾6%，腾讯音乐、阿里巴巴涨超5%，金山云、小鹏汽车等涨超3%，京 东、唯品会等涨超2%，中通快递、富途控股等涨超1%。 另外值得注意的是黄金与白银，截至发稿，现货黄金跌超0.6%，白银更是暴跌逾5%。 世界黄金协会发布公告称，黄金在2025年12月份录得4%的涨幅，推动全年同比增长率达67%，创下数 十年来的最高年度回报纪录。2025年12月贵金属（包括白银和铂金）的飙升以及大宗商品指数再平衡， 可能在短期内引发市场波动。 据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，当前经济若要进一步走强，唯一欠缺的因素是美联储更大幅度的降息。 美联储理事米兰表示，他期望2026年降息150个基点，以提振劳动力市场。米兰在描述货币政策具有限 制性时表 ...

周四，A股15连阳，不过今日实际小幅收跌。根据交易所数据，上证指数跌0.07%报4082.98点，深证成指跌0.51%，创业板指跌0.82%，沪深300跌0.82%，科 创50涨0.82%。 沪深两市3533股上涨，1514股下跌，136股持平，合计成交额2.80万亿元，较前一交易日缩量约538.34亿元；大盘主力资金净流出536.40亿元，航天航空主力 资金净流入46.53亿元居首，通信设备主力资金净流出95.05亿元居首。 题材板块中，太空算力、船舶制造、相控阵天线、深海科技、低轨卫星等涨幅居前，白银、能源金属、钨、保险、券商等跌幅居前。 针对当前市况，资深市场人士徐小明指出，上证指数连红15个交易日，这是近好多年的连红纪录，虽然涨幅加起来不大。 徐小明分析，在这里六大指数日线都有过顶部钝化，目前除了上证指数、还有中证500和上证50钝化消失，深成指、创业板指数、沪深300指数钝化还在，并 且级别较大，大概率有顶部结构。指数之间的分化代表了分歧，分歧很难形成大的高点或低点。 "今天的分时图也出现分化，除了指数之间的分化，指数和个股也明显分化，今天下午最低迷的时候，上涨家数接近下跌家数的两倍，指数跌了很多但 ...

资料显示，湖南白银股份有限公司位于湖南省郴州市苏仙区白露塘镇福城大道1号，成立日期2004年11 月8日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司主营业务涉及以银、铅、锌等有色金属矿采选、冶炼和深加工为 主,已形成"有色金属矿产资源探采选—多金属冶炼综合回收—精深加工"的一体化生产体系和全产业链 布局,并综合回收金、铋、锑、锌、铜、铟、钯等有价金属。主营业务收入构成为：有色金属及其制品 99.87%，其他(补充)0.13%。 湖南白银所属申万行业为：有色金属-贵金属-白银。所属概念板块包括：国资改革、稀缺资源、增持回 购、融资融券、有色铜等。 1月8日，湖南白银盘中下跌2.13%，截至11:18，报7.82元/股，成交12.49亿元，换手率6.76%，总市值 220.77亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1.13亿元，特大单买入1.23亿元，占比9.85%，卖出1.79亿元，占比 14.33%；大单买入2.30亿元，占比18.41%，卖出2.87亿元，占比22.98%。 湖南白银今年以来股价涨13.01%，近5个交易日涨11.87%，近20日涨25.12%，近60日涨2.49%。 分红方面，湖南白银A股上市后累计 ...

美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.1%，标普500指数涨0.03%，纳指涨0.02%。黄金、白银股走弱，赫克 拉矿业、First Majestic Silver跌超5%。 (本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 ...