每经AI快讯，9月30日，港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.1%，恒生科技指数涨0.55%。芯片股大涨，华虹 半导体涨近12%，中芯国际涨3.27%。现货黄金屡创新高，黄金股走强，紫金黄金国际涨超60%，中国 白银集团涨近4%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

这一次，黄金白银彻底涨疯了！ 9月29日，贵金属资产在期货和股市双双迎来大涨行情。 今天，黄金期货主力合约成交额2874.47亿元，比上日增加了500多亿元，而白银期货主力合约成交额达到了2481.96亿元，比上日一下子大涨了近千亿，增 幅高达64%。 统计发现，今天黄金白银两大期货品种合计加权成交额高达7780亿元，对比A股全日成交2.18万亿元，已然超过了三分之一，可见现在资金有多疯狂。 从消息面来看，近期贵金属频频迎来各方面的利好驱动。 上周五，美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%，符合预期的通胀数据减少了市场对降息前景的担忧，金银开始加速上涨，白银表现更为强势。 近日美联储多位鸽派官员接连表态，明确支持"年内再降息两次、每次25个基点"，这与此前美联储点阵图暗示的宽松路径形成呼应，又进一步强化了市场 对 "宽松周期加速" 的预期。 同时，最近地缘冲突频发，尤其以黎、俄乌等战争冲突战火再燃，也引发市场的担忧。9月23日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，"俄罗斯在乌克兰漫无目的 地作战"，并称俄罗斯是'纸老虎'，乌克兰在欧盟和北约支持下，有望'赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状'。" 此外，特朗普又在半导体、设备、 ...

9月29日，贵金属价格再度走强。 现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内涨超1%。今年以来累计上涨近45%。 现货白银价格盘中也突破47美元/盎司关键关口，年内累计涨幅超60%。 近期国际金价屡创历史新高，有"新债王"之称的冈拉克预测金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司4000美元。黄金表现亮眼，背后有多重因素交织影响。 首先，短期上，受到了近期美联储放松货币政策的推动，CME联邦利率期货显示，目前市场押注美联储今年还将分别在10月和12月再降息两次，每次25 个基点。其次，长期来看，在美国经济前景急剧变化的背景下，美元走弱持续利好黄金。 来源：市场资讯 今年衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数迄今为止已下跌超10%。专家指出，未来美元还可能继续走弱。周期上，美国相较新兴市场和其他地区的经济优 势正在减弱。 （来源：永康人） 来源：每日经济新闻、央视财经等 融媒编辑：华偎兑 校对：董碧冰 一审：应栩漪 二审：应芳蒙 终审：王贻江 高盛新兴市场股票策略师苏尼尔·库尔介绍："过去10年到15年，全球投资者在美国资产和美元上的配置过多，未来我们会看到更多投资者进行对冲和多元 化配置，转向非美国股市和资产，这将推 ...

消息面上，9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元/盎司，最高触及46.62美元/盎 司，创下自2010年以来的14年新高。据悉，在过去6个月内，现货白银累计涨幅已超过30%，表现远超 多数大宗商品，年内涨幅更是达到59%，也超过黄金的43%涨幅。 中国白银集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 0.52 0.02 4.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.53 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 344万 687万 1031万 中国白银集团(00815)升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报0.53港元，成交额1354.43万港元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

9月29日，湖南白银盘中上涨2.03%，截至10:18，报7.05元/股，成交8.69亿元，换手率5.69%，总市值 199.03亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1752.95万元，特大单买入4558.85万元，占比5.25%，卖出7207.71万 元，占比8.30%；大单买入1.88亿元，占比21.59%，卖出1.79亿元，占比20.56%。 湖南白银今年以来股价涨107.96%，近5个交易日涨4.44%，近20日涨16.34%，近60日涨75.37%。 今年以来湖南白银已经3次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为9月12日，当日龙虎榜净买入2.28亿元； 买入总计4.10亿元 ，占总成交额比20.34%；卖出总计1.81亿元 ，占总成交额比9.01%。 资料显示，湖南白银股份有限公司位于湖南省郴州市苏仙区白露塘镇福城大道1号，成立日期2004年11 月8日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司主营业务涉及以银、铅、锌等有色金属矿采选、冶炼和深加工为 主,已形成"有色金属矿产资源探采选—多金属冶炼综合回收—精深加工"的一体化生产体系和全产业链 布局,并综合回收金、铋、锑、锌、铜、铟、钯等有价金属。主营业务收入 ...

消息面上，9月26日，国际白银价格强势上行，伦敦现货白银突破46美元/盎司，最高触及46.62美元/盎 司，创下自2010年以来的14年新高。据悉，在过去6个月内，现货白银累计涨幅已超过30%，表现远超 多数大宗商品，年内涨幅更是达到59%，也超过黄金的43%涨幅。 智通财经APP获悉，中国白银集团(00815)升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报0.53港元，成交额1354.43万港 元。 ...

2025年9月28日上海贵金属市场价格行情分析 风起云涌的黄金行情：价格多维，市场活跃 2025年9月28日，上海的贵金属市场呈现出活跃的交易态势，金价依旧是市场的焦点。当天，上海黄金 T D的成交价定格在每克856.8元，而沪金期货则以856.12元/克的微弱劣势紧随其后。中国黄金的基础金 价也相对稳定，报收于855.8元/克。 在琳琅满目的黄金饰品市场，价格区间显得更为宽泛，每克价格在879元至1108元之间波动，反映出不 同品牌、工艺以及设计所带来的价值差异。与此同时，各大银行的投资金条价格也各有千秋。工商银行 的"如意金条"报价为72.52元/克，而中国银行、建设银行及民生银行则分别以871.35元/克、870.20元/克 和870.20元/克的价格紧随其后。农业银行的金条价格则略显坚挺，为893.19元/克，在银行系产品中显 得更为突出。 一、 珠宝品牌足金价格概览：高端品牌价格趋同，部分产品更具性价比 深入探究各大珠宝品牌的足金价格，我们可以发现一个有趣的现象： 周大福、六福珠宝、金至尊、谢瑞麟 均以每克1108元的价格，提供纯度高达99.9%的足金产品，形成价 格联盟。 周生生 略微领先，其足金 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market possesses dual attributes as both an industrial and precious metal, with over 60% of its demand stemming from industrial uses, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector [2][4][8] - The development of the PV industry significantly impacts silver demand, necessitating close attention to applications in PV and conductive materials, as well as macroeconomic factors like central bank policies and the dollar's performance [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite recent increases in silver prices, investor sentiment remains disappointed due to silver's higher short-term volatility compared to gold and a slowdown in PV demand growth, which raises concerns about future price trajectories [2][8] - The price relationship between silver and gold remains fundamentally unchanged, indicating a strong correlation where silver has not diverged from gold's trends [2][9] - Historical patterns suggest that surges in silver prices often signal the end of a precious metals bull market and a potential hard landing for the U.S. economy, which could lead to rapid price increases following quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - The current market is viewed as being in a "catch-up" phase, where silver prices are expected to rise alongside a continuing gold bull market, albeit at a slower pace than during a full bull run [2][18] Important but Overlooked Content - The silver market has shown an upward trend despite not meeting the high expectations set for it, particularly in the context of the ongoing gold bull market, which has seen gold prices approach $3,500 [6][12] - The interplay between silver and gold prices is influenced by broader economic conditions, including the potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy and subsequent monetary policy responses [10][21] - The demand for silver in industrial applications, especially in the PV sector, is critical for its price outlook, and any shortfall in this demand could adversely affect silver prices [10][32] - The concept of "hidden inventory" in the silver market complicates price predictions, as fluctuations in this inventory do not always correlate directly with market prices [29][31] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of silver prices will depend on multiple factors, including the development of the PV industry, global macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of related precious metals markets like gold and platinum [7][21] - The potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy remains a key factor that could trigger significant price movements in silver, similar to past market behaviors [13][14] - Investors are advised to focus on the overall trend in precious metals rather than short-term fluctuations, as the long-term outlook remains positive amid ongoing gold market strength [20][22]