Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures are experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing an upward trend, indicating a divergence in market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in different regions [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - As of August 12, domestic precious metal futures are all in the red, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, down 0.96%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 9213.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.34% [1]. - The opening price for the main Shanghai gold contract was 777.52 CNY per gram, with a high of 778.78 CNY and a low of 775.62 CNY [2]. Group 2: International Market Performance - In contrast, international precious metals are all in the green, with COMEX gold priced at 3399.30 USD per ounce, up 0.17%, and COMEX silver at 37.94 USD per ounce, up 0.78% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3399.60 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 3408.70 USD and a low of 3393.00 USD [2]. Group 3: Market Influences - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump stating "gold will not be taxed" have clarified previous confusion regarding tariffs on gold imports, which had caused a spike in gold prices [3]. - The upcoming U.S. CPI data release is anticipated to provide insights into potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could influence gold prices positively if inflation is lower than expected [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rise in US inflation in Q3 is in line with expectations. Under the dual pressure of deteriorating non - farm data and personnel changes, some Fed voting members have turned significantly dovish, and the moderate rise in inflation has limited interference with the interest - rate cut expectations. - The July non - farm data is an important turning point for market sentiment. The dominant logic is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest - rate cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest - rate cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold. It is expected that the upward trend of spot gold will be moderate below $3500, and the upward momentum may increase after breaking through this level. The movement of silver is following that of gold again, with obvious resistance at the $40 mark, and a breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][3]. 3. Summary by Section Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that President Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US, and relevant trade work is expected to be basically completed by the end of October. He also hopes that the next Fed Chairman will gain market trust and have "forward - looking thinking". - China National Rare Earth Group issued a statement clarifying that it has never cooperated, negotiated, or planned with relevant institutions or units regarding the so - called "rare - earth RMB stablecoin". The information was maliciously fabricated by lawbreakers. - The short positions in US small - cap stocks have reached the highest level since 2017. The notional value of non - commercial short contracts for the Russell 2000 index futures has exceeded $16 billion this month, and this position has doubled since May and further increased after the latest weak employment data in the US [2]. Price Logic - The decline in precious metal prices yesterday was due to two factors. Firstly, the US clarified the rumor of imposing tariffs on gold last Friday night, and the price difference between COMEX and LBMA gold narrowed significantly, weakening the sentiment in the US market. Secondly, the expected rise in the US CPI in July, with the market consensus expecting a 0.31% month - on - month increase and about 3.1% year - on - year increase in core CPI, and the simultaneous rise of the US dollar index, brought short - term downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Outlook - The expected trading range for London gold this week is between $3340 and $3500 per ounce, and for London silver, it is between $37 and $40 per ounce [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market's risk - aversion demand has declined due to progress in tariff negotiations and the ECB's reduction of the September interest - rate cut expectation, as well as the Fed's likely on - hold stance in July, which suppresses precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and the Fed's possible rate cut in August, precious metal prices may not continue to fall. Silver may run bearishly in the short - term due to the general decline in commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates within the year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Spread Information - **Price**: On July 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3358.72, London silver spot was 774.70, AU (T + D) was 3360.30, COMEX silver was 9368.00, AG (T + D) was 773.17, COMEX gold was 9365.00, AU2508 was 39.30, and AG2508 was 39.08. Compared with July 24, the price changes were - 0.2%, - 0.2%, 0.1%, - 0.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.6%, 0.1%, - 0.2% respectively [3]. - **Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1.53, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 1.95, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 82.70, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3. Compared with July 24, the spread changes were - 1.3%, - 1.7%, - 0.3%, - 2.1% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Information - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 15230.42858, 253038, 957.09 respectively; COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 311949, 58911, 85678 respectively. The gold ETF - SPDR position was 25058, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 60620 [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, 2025, SHFE silver inventory was 500320749 kg, SHFE gold inventory was 37762394 kg, COMEX silver inventory was 30258.00 ounces, and COMEX gold inventory was 1187254.00 ounces. Compared with July 24, the inventory changes were 0.39%, 0.51%, - 0.12%, 3.07% respectively [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The US July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 and the first contraction since then, far below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 62.9. The new orders index preliminary value dropped to 49.7, the lowest since December last year. However, the US July Markit services PMI preliminary value was 5.2, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the employment sub - index preliminary value rose to 52.6 [3]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary month - on - month value was + 9.3%, higher than the expected - 0.7% [3]. 3.4 Other News - Trump said he thought Powell would cut interest rates, had a good talk with Powell about interest rates, and that the economic situation was good [3]. - On July 26, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia entered the third day, causing hundreds of casualties [3]. - Trump said he would issue nearly 200 tariff letters with tariff rates of 10% or 15%, was unclear about the prospects of a US - EU agreement, and might impose tariffs on Canada directly. He also said more fine - tuning would be done on the US - UK trade agreement, but there was little room for negotiation on steel and aluminum [3]. 3.5 Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.88% to 777.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.31% to 9392 yuan/kg [3].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：短期继续看回落；白银：上行空间基本饱和 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银中性 价格区间：760-780元/克、8800-9400元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-0.35%，伦敦银回升1.22%。金银比从前周的87.5回落至86.3，10年期TIPS回落至1.96%，10年期名义利率回升至4.4% （2年期3.91%），美元指数录得97.6。 ◆ 本周黄金出现明显回落，外盘触及到3451美元/盎司后震荡下行，符合我们前期"黄金年内高点已现，3400-3500区间内可择机做空"的 观点。本周关税政策陆续敲定，美国对日本确定15%的"对等关税"，而日本则需要向美国投资5500亿美元并 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the price of London gold rose by 2.86%, while London silver fell by -0.3%. The gold-silver ratio increased from 91.4 to 95.2, the 10-year TIPS fell to 2.13%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.41% (2-year 3.96%), and the US dollar index was 98.1 [3]. - The conflict between Iran and Israel this week was the main disturbance in the precious metals market. The report maintains its view on gold, stating that as an asset with a long - term upward trend, once there is a new driver, long - term funds are more likely to re - enter the gold market and raise the bottom support [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - For gold, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -19.25 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -20 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - For silver, this week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 widened again to -0.079 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.095 US dollars per ounce [8][12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -3.5 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was 2 yuan per gram, also at the lower end of the historical range [18][19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spreads - This week, the gold monthly spread was 4.22 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. - This week, the silver monthly spread was 36 yuan per kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [26]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - For gold, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE gold was 11.38 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying SHFE gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.45 yuan per gram [29][30]. - For silver, the total cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling SHFE silver was 133.26 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying SHFE silver December contract and selling June contract was -95.90 yuan per kilogram [31][32]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Directions of SGE Spot Gold and Silver - This week, the SGE gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [33]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.33 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 54.3%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 3.74 million ounces to 494.72 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.5%. The gold futures inventory increased by 330 tons, and the silver futures inventory increased by 92.1 tons to 1210 tons [35][37][39]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold slightly increased, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also slightly increased [41]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 4.85 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 56.55 tons [46][48]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 91.4 to 95.2 [50]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - This week, the 1M gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 4.8% [53]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [58]. 3.2.2 Other Macroeconomic Indicators - The report also presented data on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycles, financial conditions, economic surprise indices, inflation surprise indices, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability, but no specific core views were summarized for these aspects in the text [63][66][71][74][75].

Market Overview - On May 19, US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 0.32%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively [3] - Major US tech stocks mostly increased, although the Wind US Tech Seven Index fell by 0.09%. Notable individual stock movements included Microsoft rising over 1%, while Apple and Tesla fell by over 1% and 2% respectively [5][6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining by 0.17%. Among Chinese stocks, Donis rose over 19% and Hesai Technology increased by over 10% [5] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.41% to $3232.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising by 0.44% to $32.495 per ounce [9] - As of May 20, gold and silver futures showed slight declines [9] Oil Prices - International oil prices saw an increase, with ICE Brent crude rising by 0.11% and NYMEX WTI crude increasing by 0.08% [11][12] US Treasury Yields - The 30-year US Treasury yield surpassed 5% during trading on May 19, influenced by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which also affected US stock index futures. The 10-year Treasury yield also crossed 4.5% [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's upward drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it has support on the downside, with prices in a volatile pattern and volatility likely to continue to narrow; silver is in a range - bound pattern. Gold is rated as neutral, and silver is also rated as neutral. The price ranges are 770 - 808 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Increase**: London gold rose 2.3%, and London silver rose 0.46%. Among domestic and foreign futures and spot varieties, Comex gold 2506 rose 2.52%, London gold spot rose 2.65%, Comex silver 2506 rose 2.18%, and London silver spot rose 2.25%. Some domestic varieties declined, such as沪银2506 with a - 0.57% decline [3][4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volumes of沪银2506,沪金2506 decreased, while that of Comex gold 2506 increased. The open interests of沪银2506,沪金2506, Comex silver 2506, and Comex gold 2506 all decreased [4] - **Comex and ETF Open Interest Changes**: Comex silver futures and options non - commercial net long open interest increased by 47,819 hands, SLV silver ETF open interest increased by 5.65 tons. Comex gold futures and options non - commercial net long open interest decreased by 764 hands, and SPDR gold ETF open interest decreased by 6.32 tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai silver inventory increased by 3,135 kilograms, Comex silver inventory increased by 4,602,898 ounces, Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,590 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 2,121,392 ounces [4] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The silver spot - to - futures main contract price difference remained unchanged at - 18 yuan/kilogram, and the gold spot - to - futures main contract price difference increased by 2.55 yuan/gram [4] - **Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes**: The absolute value of the price difference between the December and June contracts of沪银 decreased by 2 yuan/kilogram, and that of沪金 increased by 1.9 yuan/gram [4] - **Domestic - Foreign Price Difference Changes**: The price difference between silver T + D and London silver increased by 29 yuan/kilogram, and the price difference between gold T + D and London gold increased by 3.48 yuan/gram [4] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.38%, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNH spot) rose 0.40%, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.46%, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.27%, and the British pound against the US dollar rose 0.27% [4] 3.2 Trading Aspects (Price, Price Difference, Inventory, Capital, and Open Interest) - **Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 2.64 US dollars/ounce, and the price difference between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.8 US dollars/ounce. The price difference between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to - 0.163 US dollars/ounce, and the price difference between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.43 US dollars/ounce [8][9][12] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference**: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 3.12 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot price difference was - 18 yuan/kilogram, also at the lower end of the historical range [15][18] - **Inter - month Price Difference**: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.24 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver inter - month price difference was 64 yuan/kilogram, at the lower end of the historical range [22][26] - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost**: The total cost of buying TD and selling沪金 for cross - month positive arbitrage was 13.83 yuan/gram; the total cost of buying沪金12 months and selling 6 months was - 8.90 yuan/gram. The total cost of buying TD and selling沪银 for cross - month positive arbitrage was 151.72 yuan/kilogram; the total cost of buying沪银12 months and selling 6 months was - 87.53 yuan/kilogram [29][30][31][32] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold and Silver Spot Deferred Fee Payment Direction**: This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid by shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power; the silver deferred fee was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [33] - **Gold and Silver Inventory and Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.12 million ounces to 39.15 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.3%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 4.06 million ounces to 503.58 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 33.3%. Shanghai gold futures inventory increased by 1,590 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 3.14 tons to 934 tons [35][38][40] - **CFTC Gold and Silver Non - commercial Open Interest**: This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long open interest in gold declined significantly, while that in silver increased slightly [42] - **ETF Open Interest**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 7.47 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 51.04 tons [46][48] - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 100 last week to 102 [51] - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53] 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58] - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not specifically summarized in the text - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The document provides the rate - cut probabilities of different regions and time points, such as the US, Canada, Europe, Asia - Pacific, and Latin America [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is experiencing a volatile decline with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver sees a recovery in risk appetite. The strength analysis shows neutrality for both gold and silver, with price ranges of 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8300 yuan/kilogram for silver. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5 this week. The long - term narrative of gold remains unchanged, but it has entered an overbought zone technically. The reversal of Trump's stance on trade and the Fed's independence has alleviated market concerns and interrupted the upward trend of gold. The first risk point of gold price decline (end of Sino - US trade friction) has slightly eased, increasing the trading difficulty of gold. It is recommended to consider using option tools for trading allocation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: This week, London gold fell by - 0.86%, and London silver rose by 3.17%. Among domestic varieties, the closing prices and weekly price changes of various gold and silver futures contracts are as follows: for example, the closing price of Shanghai silver 2506 was 8,280 yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.47%; the closing price of Shanghai gold 2506 was 787.20 yuan, with a weekly decrease of - 0.48% [3][4]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai silver 2506 increased by 66,534 hands compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 31,143 hands; the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2506 increased by 321,047 hands, and the position decreased by 29,998 hands. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver futures and options increased by 41,063 hands, while those of COMEX gold decreased by 21,132 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.5 million ounces to 41.71 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 49.8%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.2 million ounces to 497.91 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 30 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 13.62 tons to 923 tons [35][37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: The overseas spot - futures spreads of gold and silver, domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads all showed certain changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold main contract spread fell to - 11.44 US dollars/ounce, and the domestic gold spot - futures spread was - 2.27 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [9][16]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [58]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, and retail and food service sales, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [63]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [66]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis content is provided in the report. - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report provides the Fed's rate - cut probability data at different time points, showing that the market expects a high probability of rate cuts in the future [74]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 6.02 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 159.84 tons [46][48]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [53].

当地时间4月24日，美股三大股指集体上涨，大型科技股上涨成为重要推手之一。纳斯达克中国金龙指 数迎来四连阳，热门中概股多数上涨。 COMEX黄金期货价格重拾涨势。截至北京时间4月25日5:55，COMEX黄金期货价格涨逾2%，收复3300 美元/盎司。在机构看来，短线黄金有整理需求，但中长期维持多头观点不变，美元信用收缩是长期利 多黄金的核心支撑。 美股大型科技股上涨 当地时间4月24日， 美股三大股指开盘后持续拉升 ，道指收复40000点关口，纳指、标普500指数双双涨 逾2%。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指涨1.23%，纳指涨2.74%，标普500指数涨2.03%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数低开高走 ，截至收盘涨0.68%，日线迎来四连阳。热门中概股多数上涨，小马智 行涨近40%。 图片来源： Wind 国际金价上涨 图片来源：Wind 行业板块及个股方面，美股大型科技股上涨。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨2.82%，英伟达以3.62%的涨 幅领涨。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 45729.08 1252.18 2.82% ...