地缘扰动与弱美元共振，⾦银再度加速 上⾏ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-27 在地缘⻛险与美元信⽤担忧主导下，贵⾦属近期强势上⾏。⻩⾦短期延续 强势但⾼位波动⻛险放⼤，中⻓期上涨逻辑未改；⽩银凭借更强弹性短期 加速上涨后或转⼊⾼位震荡，但需警惕快速上涨后的回撤⻛险。两者均需 关注地缘局势、美联储政策变化等⻛险因素。（以上数据与新闻均来⾃万 得数据终端） 黄金观点 短期延续强势上行，地缘风险与美元信用逻辑主导，需关注高位波动 放大风险。 逻辑： 1月26日金银价格再度大幅拉升。截至国内收盘，沪金上涨3. 67%，伦敦金现日内突破5100美元/盎司，刷新历史高位。1月以来， 美国与南美、欧洲及伊朗相关冲突频繁，地缘风险持续外溢，市场对 美元信用的担忧有所升温。在美国股债汇同步走弱的背景下，贵金属 的避险与再定价属性阶段性占优，成为金价上行的重要驱动。（以上 数据及新闻均来自万得数据终端） 展望：在地缘冲突反复、美元信用叙事强化及美联储独立性风险抬升 的背景下，黄金中长期上涨逻辑未改，短期需警惕高位波动放大与情 绪过热后的技术性修正。 白银观点 短期延续 ...

周一，受不断升级的全球地缘政治紧张局势及市场动荡影响，现货黄金价格历史上首次突破每盎司5000美元重要心理关口，并进一步触及5110美 元的历史新高。在全球避险情绪的猛烈驱动下，投资者正以前所未有的规模涌入这一传统避险资产，忽视价格高位，显示出强烈的买入动能。 据金价在周一盘中一度上涨2.2%，最高触及5110.50美元。至此，本月金价涨幅已累计达到约18%，有望创下40多年来的最大单月涨幅。这一走势 延续了上周的强劲表现，当时市场对格陵兰岛局势的担忧已推动金价录得自金融危机以来最强劲的单周表现。 高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管Samantha Dart指出，黄金为投资者提供了一个"对冲货币和财政政策不确定性风险的选项"。过去几年中，许多央 行出于多元化储备的需求，持续减少对美元的依赖并增持黄金，尽管这一步伐在去年有所放缓，但整体趋势依然稳固。 市场分析指出，特朗普总统任期内的政策不确定性、美联储主席鲍威尔面临刑事调查引发的对央行独立性的担忧，以及委内瑞拉、伊朗和格陵兰 岛等地的地缘政治风险，共同构成了此轮金价暴涨的核心驱动力。盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen指出，这种由"错失恐惧症"驱动的投资 势 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver prices are continuously hitting new highs. Gold price is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, while silver price is influenced by the expanding supply gap. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly decreased, it has not affected the upward trend of gold and silver prices. The market shows a supply - demand imbalance, leading to consecutive price increases. However, as prices rise, risks also increase, so one should follow the trend while being aware of risks [2][5][7] Summary by Related Information Gold and Silver Price Performance - Last Friday, gold price rose to $4,980 per ounce, touching the psychological mark of $5,000 during the session. Silver price historically broke through the $100 - per - ounce mark, reaching $103 per ounce with a 7% daily increase. The prices of both gold and silver showed significant upward trends throughout the week [2] Geopolitical Factors - Trump stated in Davos that he would not use force to seize Greenland and withdrew the threat of taxing Europe, but he did not give up on Greenland and warned that the US would retaliate if Europe sold US assets. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems and is considering a full - scale blockade of Cuba's oil imports. Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices [2][3] US Economic Indicators - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January 2026 was 56.4, a five - month high, up 3.5 points from the previous month, higher than the initial value of 54.0 and exceeding the economists' prediction range. In November 2025, inflation - adjusted personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while real disposable personal income increased by only 1%, the smallest annual increase since 2022, and the personal savings rate dropped to a three - year low [3][5] Interest Rate Cut Expectations - After two consecutive quarters of strong economic growth in the US since 2021, the Fed does not seem to face immediate pressure to cut interest rates. The latest market average prediction is that the Fed will start cutting rates in June (previously predicted to be in March), and the second and last cut will occur in September. The expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly decreased [5] Silver Supply and Demand - In 2025, the world's annual silver production was 25,000 tons, with a shortage of nearly 100 million tons. Silver is widely used in photovoltaic production, and Musk's space - photovoltaic concept has increased the demand for silver, contributing to the upward breakthrough of silver price [5] Market Supply - Demand Imbalance - The real supply - demand imbalance in the gold and silver market, combined with the artificial imbalance caused by hoarding, has led to continuous price increases. It is difficult to end this upward cycle without external forces to change the supply - demand structure in the short term [6][7]

长江期货贵金属周报 2026/1/26 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 2026/01/02 格陵兰岛问题持续升级，地缘紧张局势升温，避险情绪 升温，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五，美黄金报收 4983美元/盎司，周内上涨8.3%，关注上方压力位5100， 下方支撑位4900。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0000 67.0000 77.0000 87.0000 97.0000 107.0000 2021/01/01 202 /01/01 20 ...

周一（1月26日）亚市早盘，贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻，现货黄金历史首次突破5000美元/盎司整数大 关，距离其首次突破4000美元关口（2025年10月8日）仅过去100余日，本月累涨730美元。现货白银同 步刷新纪录，银价首次突破107美元/盎司关口，日内涨幅扩大至3.6%，本月累涨超35美元。 现货铂金上涨逾3%，首次站上2800美元/盎司，今年首月累涨约37%，或755美元，将历史新高刷新至 2862美元/盎司附近。 沪银主力合约日内暴涨14.00%，现报27639.00元/千克。纽约期银日内暴涨6.00%，现报107.43美元/盎 司。铂主力合约日内涨幅扩大至12.00%，现报760.85元/克。钯主力合约日内涨幅达8.00%，现报539.00 元/克。 投资者在地缘政治紧张局势加剧之际，纷纷寻求避险资产。美国与北约盟友就格陵兰岛问题不断升级的 摩擦，进一步推高了今年以来的金价，原因是市场预期未来金融和地缘政治的不确定性将进一步加剧。 受美国宽松货币政策、各国央行需求以及ETF资金流入创纪录等因素支撑，黄金价格在2025年上涨逾 64%。 目前COMEX金银比价已下行至48，为近50年的低位。当前地缘 ...

2026.01. 26 本文字数：2170，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 随着地缘政治紧张局势高烧不退、全球财政风险忧虑卷土重来，投资者当地时间26日开盘再次涌向 贵金属寻求避险。 截至第一财经发稿时，纽约商品交易所2月交割的COMEX黄金期货上涨超2%，突破5100美元关口， 2月白银期货日内飙升超6%，一度站上108美元/盎司，或创下史上最大月涨幅纪录。 黄金再迎里程碑 近期从格陵兰岛、委内瑞拉到中东的多个冲突热点都推高了地缘政治风险，进一步凸显黄金对冲不确 定性的属性，成为这一贵金属价格飙升的重要原因。上周末，美国总统特朗普威胁对加拿大加征 100%关税，再次引发外界对全球经济不确定性担忧。 汇丰银行在最新研报中表示："黄金和白银价格近期的进一步上涨，与地缘经济问题密切相关。" 与此同时，美元弱势也提振了大宗商品市场，投资者关注可能再次到来的政府停摆。26日盘初，美 元指数下跌0.4%，报97.11，创近四个月新低。23日日本政府表态将采取措施应对日元回落波动背后 的市场投机行为，并警告称已做好干预准备，此后投资者将持续密切关注日本股市与日元走势。巴克 莱银行认为："干预预期升温推动日 ...

黄金迎来5100美元里程碑。 随着地缘政治紧张局势高烧不退、全球财政风险忧虑卷土重来，投资者当地时间26日开盘再次涌向贵金 属寻求避险。 瑞士联合私人银行认为，机构与零售投资者的持续买盘推动了金银价格上涨。该行表示："预计黄金将 迎来又一个强势年份，这反映出各国央行和零售端的投资需求仍在持续，我们将黄金年末目标价定为每 盎司5200美元。" 高盛集团认为，黄金的需求基础已突破传统渠道。2025年初以来，西方黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的 持仓量增加了约500吨；同时，高净值家族实物购金等对冲宏观政策风险的新型投资方式，正成为黄金 需求日益重要的来源。高盛近期将2026年12月黄金价格预期从先前的每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元， 理由是，市场对全球宏观与政策风险的对冲需求已具备"粘性"，这一趋势实质性抬高了今年黄金价格的 起点。 各国央行的黄金购买量依旧保持高位。高盛估算，当前全球央行月均购金量约为60吨，远高于2022年之 前月均17吨的水平，尤其是新兴市场央行仍在持续将外汇储备转向黄金资产。值得一提的是，高盛认 为，市场对财政可持续性等全球宏观政策风险的对冲需求将持续至2026年，这与2024年末美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. The strong performance of gold and silver prices this week drove the strong performance of platinum group metals. The suspension of tariffs did not ease the tight spot market of platinum group metals. The overseas platinum group metal lease rates remained high. Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [10][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce [10][9]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week. The CME palladium inventory rose 166 kilograms to 6.73 tons [9]. - **Lease Rates**: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [9]. 3.2. Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 79009 lots. As of January 23, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 681.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly rebounded [17][23]. - **Palladium Price**: The price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 19167 lots [20]. - **Lease Rates**: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62% [24]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: In the week of January 20, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds decreased from 7536 lots to 4906 lots. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 255 lots [27][30]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - **Platinum ETF Position**: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas platinum ETFs was 76.02 tons [41]. - **Palladium ETF Position**: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas palladium ETFs was 15.56 tons [44]. - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week [48]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory continued to rise, reaching 6.73 tons as of January 23 [53]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production forecast of the world's top 15 mines shows that the platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease from 127.47 tons in 2025 [59]. - **Palladium Supply**: The production data of the world's top 10 palladium mines shows that the production of the top 10 palladium mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease from 149.37 tons in 2025 [61]. - **Platinum Imports in China**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [64]. - **Palladium Imports in China**: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [67]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX platinum, such as the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 7 spread, 7 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread [83][85]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX palladium, such as the 3 - 6 spread, 6 - 9 spread, 9 - 12 spread, and 12 - 3 spread [92][96]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: Charts show the price differences between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price [97].

| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业 | 49098.71 | -0.58% | | DJI.GI | | | | 纳斯达克指 | 23501.24 | 0.28% | | IXIC.GI | | | | 标普500 | 6915.61 | 0.03% | | SPX.GI | | | 科技股涨跌不一，微软（MSFT）、奈飞（NFLX）涨超3%，AMD、亚马逊（AMZN）涨超2%；英特尔（INTC）跌超17%，创2024年8月以来最大单日跌 幅。 隔夜美股盘中走弱。截至收盘，美股三大指数涨跌不一，道指（DJI）跌0.58%，纳指涨0.28%，标普500（SPX）指数涨0.03%。 1月23日周五，全球贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻。在地缘政治不确定性持续发酵、以及市场对美联储年内降息预期升温的背景下，避险资金大举涌入黄金 与白银市场。现货白银价格盘中史上首次突破100美元/盎司关口，黄金同步刷新历史高位，逼近5000美元/盎司。 当地时间1月23日，截至收盘，ICE布油、NYMEX WTI原油均涨逾3%。 现货黄金价格逼近5000美元/盎司，高盛将2026年12 ...

往后看，影响黄金的主要因素及增量信息主要有： 事实上，岁末年初黄金等贵金属市场迎来一次大利空。2025年12月29日—2026年1月2日四个交易日中， 黄金和白银因全球大宗商品重要指数权重的调整而大幅震荡。2025年末，彭博大宗商品指数 （Bloomberg Commodity Index）发布了年度权重调整公告，黄金的目标权重从14.29%调至14.90%，白 银则从4.49%降至3.94%。根据WIND数据，2025年黄金的实际权重为20.49%，若2026年目标权重下调至 14.9%，相当于将黄金的实际权重下调5.59个百分点；而2025年白银的实际权重为9.73%，若按照2026年 的目标权重下调至3.94%，则白银的实际权重将下调5.79个百分点。作为全球大宗商品市场的重要基准 指数，目前彭博大宗商品指数追踪的被动型基金、ETF以及挂钩衍生品的资产管理总规模（AUM）约 为1000亿至1100亿美元之间。若黄金的实际权重下调5.59个百分点，白银实际权重下调5.79个百分点， 则对应黄金和白银的被动再平衡资金规模大约为58.7亿美元和60.8亿美元，白银的调整规模高于黄金。 权重调整公告之后，由于前 ...