Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, experienced significant declines due to reduced market risk appetite following trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to heavy selling pressure on these assets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell to around $3370 per ounce, while silver saw a short-term decline with a daily drop of 1.00%, falling below the $39 mark [1] - The market's risk aversion diminished as the U.S. reached trade agreements, resulting in decreased attractiveness of precious metals as safe-haven assets [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The EU and the U.S. are nearing a trade agreement that would impose a 15% tariff on European imports, similar to a recent agreement between the U.S. and Japan [2] - The EU may accept "reciprocal tariffs" to avoid the threat of increased tariffs from the U.S., which could rise to 30% starting August 1 [2] - Some products, including aircraft, spirits, and medical equipment, may be exempt from tariffs under the new agreement [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is struggling to maintain above the $3400 mark, with potential further declines if it breaks below the July 16 high of $3377.17, targeting the $3350-$3330 range [3] - Silver has shown strong performance due to industrial demand and supply shortages, which may indirectly support gold prices [3] - If gold surpasses $3400 per ounce, the next resistance levels are at $3452 and the historical high of $3500; otherwise, it may drop to $3350, with further support at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages [3] Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is consolidating below $39.50 after a three-day surge, with a relative strength index around 73, indicating strong bullish momentum but potential overbought conditions [4] - The price has been moving within a defined ascending channel since early April, with significant support levels at $38.45-$38.10 and further down at the 21-day moving average of $37.59 [4] - The 50-day moving average at $36.20 provides a solid support level, reinforcing the broader upward trend in silver prices [4]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices remained stable around $3354, following a 0.35% increase last Friday due to a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties that boosted demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The decline of the dollar index by 0.5% made gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, potentially increasing its appeal [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Inflation - The U.S. dollar fell against the euro last Friday but maintained weekly gains as investors assessed expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies amid signs that tariffs might increase inflationary pressures [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise this summer due to tariff policies, which delayed expectations for potential interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal funds futures traders anticipate a total of 46 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, likely consisting of two 25 basis point cuts, with the first expected in September [4] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs but maintained that the U.S. economy is in good shape, suggesting significant rate cuts within the next 12 months [3][4] Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are facing challenges, with the U.S. aiming for nearly comprehensive tariffs on EU goods, while the EU seeks to continue negotiations to resolve the impasse before the August 1 deadline [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated potential for a "good agreement" with Japan, while discussions with Indonesia regarding a new trade deal are still in progress [4] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached new highs in recent weeks, as investor sentiment regarding the impact of Trump's tariff threats has become more complex, with reduced fears about the potential damage to the U.S. economy [5] - This week is viewed as a critical period for assessing how Trump's economic policies will affect the broader economy, with key focus on Powell's speech and the European Central Bank's decisions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The delay in the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the easing of geopolitical risks, the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Data - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by over $3 trillion. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is almost zero, but the expected timing of interest rate cuts remains in September/October/December. [3] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates 1 - 2 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May. The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. [3] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%. It may start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the end of 2025. [4] 3.2 US Debt and Financial Market Conditions - The US unpaid public debt totaled $36.58 trillion and increased compared to last week. The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion in the next decade, and the fiscal deficit may increase by $3.4 trillion. [7] - As of July 2, the Fed's bank reserve balance was $3.26 trillion, a decrease from last week; the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale was $631.1 billion, an increase from last week; and the US Treasury cash account was $372.2 billion, an increase from last week. [10] - The Fed's rediscount (seasonal) loans to commercial banks increased compared to last week. [11] - The New York Fed's survey showed that consumers' one - year inflation expectation in June decreased to 3%. However, the expected expansion of tax cuts and fiscal deficits by the Trump administration, combined with the Fed's future interest rate cut expectations, have raised the medium - and long - term inflation expectations in the US. [16] - The US medium - and long - term Treasury yields increased. The difference between the yields of long - term and medium - and short - term Treasuries also increased. [18][24] - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week. [27] - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased. [31] - The annual rate of the US Redbook commercial retail sales index was 5.90%, indicating that the US consumer industry remained prosperous. [36] - The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms in the US decreased compared to last week, causing the US MBA mortgage application activity index to increase. The number of new and existing home sales in the US in May decreased compared to the previous month. [39] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 233,000, lower than expected and the previous value, but still within a reasonable range. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.964 million, higher than expected but lower than the previous value, indicating a weakening demand for labor in the US job market. [43] 3.3 International Exchange Rates and Bond Yield Spreads - The difference in yields between US and German 10 - year Treasuries increased. [47] - The exchange rates of the euro and the pound against the US dollar began to decline. [49] 3.4 Precious Metal Market Conditions - The volatility index of US gold ETFs decreased. [53] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX gold futures increased. The holdings of SPDR gold ETF decreased compared to last week. [56][58] - The total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased compared to last week. [60] - The domestic gold futures (spot) price premium was higher than the 75th percentile of the past five years (higher than the 50th percentile of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range). It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign gold. [67] - The basis between London and COMEX gold was positive and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis between the gold exchange and SHFE was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE gold basis at low prices in the short term. [70] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and SHFE gold were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spreads of SHFE gold. [74] - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX silver futures increased. The holdings of iShare silver ETF increased compared to last week. [76][78] - The total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver decreased compared to last week. [80] - The domestic silver futures (spot) price was between the 50th - 75th percentiles of the past five years and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign silver. [86] - The basis of COMEX silver was negative and basically within a reasonable range, while the basis of Shanghai silver was negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing long positions in the SHFE silver basis at low prices in the short term. [90] - The spreads between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the near - and far - month spreads of SHFE silver. [94] - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) was slightly lower than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - silver ratio" at high prices in the short term. [97] - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) were far higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of lightly testing short positions in the "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" at high prices in the short term. [101]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is focusing on the next round of precious metal trends, with expectations that both gold and silver prices will continue to rise due to structural economic risks and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,300 per ounce, while silver is fluctuating above $36, indicating potential for further gains [1] - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott highlights increased attention on silver due to its recovering industrial demand and a declining gold-silver ratio, suggesting silver has room for a rebound [3] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 in April to below 92, indicating silver's potential for price recovery [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. fiscal deficit is a fundamental macro backdrop supporting gold and silver prices, with federal debt surpassing $37 trillion and a new budget proposal expected to add $3 trillion in deficits over the next decade [4] - Concerns over the long-term stability of the dollar are rising as the U.S. government continues to run large deficits relative to GDP, prompting a shift of capital from equities to hard assets like gold and silver [4] - Key drivers for rising gold prices include dollar depreciation, rising inflation expectations, and global liquidity excess [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the divergence between wage growth and inflation trends has led to a reassessment of "stagflation" risks [5] - Gold is viewed as a natural hedge against inflation, with its price support becoming more solid amid ongoing inflation expectations [5] - Silver, with over 60% of its demand coming from industrial sectors, is expected to benefit from the recovery in industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on Industrial Metals - The recent "Big and Beautiful" legislation in the U.S. significantly increases fiscal support for clean energy, manufacturing, and semiconductors, which will enhance demand for industrial metals like silver, copper, and platinum [6] - Silver's critical role in the photovoltaic industry is gaining market attention due to this legislative push [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize above $3,300 per ounce while silver could experience a rebound, with gold maintaining its strategic position in investment portfolios and silver serving as a tactical investment tool [8] - Key variables to monitor include Federal Reserve policy direction, U.S. inflation and employment data, global fiscal conditions, geopolitical risks, and changes in consumption and industrial cycles [8] Group 6: Investment Sentiment - The market is entering a slow bull phase driven by structural capital flows, with gold being the preferred choice due to its reserve asset attributes, while silver's dual financial and industrial characteristics present greater elasticity [9] - In the context of rising fiscal deficits, inflation risks, and complex economic data trends, both gold and silver are becoming critical options for investor asset allocation, with silver potentially emerging as a "dark horse" in the next precious metal rally [9]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of American precious metals companies has declined in pre-market trading due to gold prices falling to a one-month low [1] Group 1 - The decline in stock prices is directly linked to the drop in gold prices, indicating a strong correlation between the two [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the international gold price is under pressure due to reduced market risk aversion following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, with gold prices falling approximately 1.5% this week [1] - The easing of geopolitical risks has boosted market risk appetite, which continued into the trading session on Friday, supported by positive news regarding U.S.-China trade framework discussions [1] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have increased over 25% this year, remaining close to historical highs, with geopolitical and trade uncertainties providing significant support [1] Group 2 - Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, and expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially restarting loose monetary policy are important factors supporting gold prices [2] - As a non-yielding asset, gold holds greater allocation value in a low-interest-rate environment, with current spot gold prices around $3,330 per ounce, down approximately 0.5% on the day [2] - Palladium has shown strong performance this week with a cumulative increase of about 10%, while platinum prices have continued to rise after reaching a multi-year high [2]

Core Insights - The article analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of precious metals, specifically gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, to determine which metal is the most valuable in the current market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold remains the most sought-after precious metal, driven by its status as a safe-haven asset and its demand in jewelry and investment sectors [1] - Silver is experiencing increased industrial demand, particularly in electronics and solar panels, which is contributing to its price stability [1] - Platinum's demand is primarily influenced by the automotive industry, particularly for catalytic converters, while palladium has seen a surge in demand due to stricter emissions regulations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The article highlights that gold prices have shown resilience, with fluctuations primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [1] - Silver prices have been more volatile, reflecting its dual role as both an industrial metal and an investment asset [1] - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to remain high due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from the automotive sector [1]

Core Insights - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold, silver, and platinum all returning over 20%, significantly outperforming traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [1] - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to heightened risk aversion, concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, and a shift towards de-dollarization by foreign central banks amid changing political dynamics following Trump's return to the White House [1] - Gold has risen approximately 27% since 2025, while U.S. Treasuries have failed to provide traditional safe-haven benefits, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [1] Precious Metals Performance - Gold, silver, and platinum have all significantly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets, with platinum seeing a year-to-date increase of over 35% [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust have seen inflows exceeding $11 billion this year, with SPDR Gold Trust ranking 13th in the ETF industry with nearly $7 billion in assets [1] Silver and Platinum Opportunities - Investment opportunities in silver and platinum are highlighted, with silver recently surpassing $37 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, yet still below its historical peak of $50 per ounce in 2011 [2] - The gold-silver ratio has recently decreased from 100:1 but remains above the long-term average of 60:1, indicating potential for silver investment [2] - Silver's dual role as an industrial and safe-haven asset positions it uniquely, with demand driven by applications in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [2] Market Trends and Demand - The demand for platinum is also on the rise due to supply shortages and increased demand for platinum jewelry, driven by high gold prices [3] - The slowdown in electric vehicle adoption is expected to prolong the presence of internal combustion engines, increasing the demand for platinum and palladium in catalytic converters [3]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.2 to settle at $3406.5 per ounce, with a gain of 0.06% on the 17th [1] - Gold prices faced profit-taking pressure from investors this week, but geopolitical tensions provided support, leading to a temporary stabilization after a significant drop in the previous trading day [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.9% month-over-month decline in retail sales for May, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.5% drop, following a revision of April's data to a 0.1% decrease [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's "Annual Central Bank Gold Survey" revealed that 95% of surveyed central banks expect an increase in global gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 43% planning to increase their official gold holdings this year, up from 29% in the previous survey [1] - Over the past three years, global central banks have purchased more than 3000 tons of gold, indicating a strong demand for gold reserves [1] Group 3 - Silver prices surged on the 17th, with July futures rising by $0.81 to $37.180 per ounce, marking a 2.23% increase and reaching the highest level since 2012 [2] - Citibank noted that the silver market is facing several years of supply shortages, with inventory holders being highly sensitive to price changes and strong investment demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Short-term geopolitical risks support the upward trend of precious metals, and the long-term positive logic remains unchanged. Gold may continue its strong performance in the short term, while silver will maintain a consolidation trend due to industrial demand constraints [3][4][5] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased, and the market should focus on short-term geopolitical changes and policy signals from the upcoming FOMC meeting [3][17][19] - Central banks' gold purchases are expected to drive up gold prices, and funds from central banks are expected to maintain a net inflow [3][45] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3,450 mark, while silver consolidated at a high level with a slight decline, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded [5] - US inflation data cooled down comprehensively, and employment data weakened, pushing up the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which supported the rise of precious metals [5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East escalated sharply, and the risk aversion mood pushed up the premium of gold [5] Macro - Financial Factors - **Dollar Index**: This week, the dollar index continued to weaken, reaching a low of 97.60. On Friday, due to the sudden change in the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the dollar index ended its continuous decline [3][15] - **Fed Interest Rate**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in July is 23.1%, and the probability in September has risen to 71.3%, with an expectation of two rate cuts within the year [3][17][19] - **US Economic Indicators**: US manufacturing and service industries showed signs of weakness. The employment market also showed signs of softening, and inflation data was lower than expected [24][28][31] Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025 due to limited mine production increases and low recycling rates [4] - **Demand**: Central banks, especially the Chinese central bank, have resumed increasing their gold holdings, and it is expected that funds from central banks will continue to flow in. The demand from central banks is expected to support gold prices [3][45] Asset Attributes - **Monetary Attribute**: The weakening of the dollar index and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates support the rise of precious metals [3][15] - **Financial Attribute**: The increase in the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates and the central banks' gold - buying behavior are positive for gold prices [3][17] - **Commodity Attribute**: The gold SPDR持仓量 increased slightly, and the silver SLV持仓量 changed little. The silver market is in short supply, and the inventory situation of gold and silver varies [3][4][46] Operation Suggestions - **Gold**: In the short term, supported by geopolitical risks, the trend is strong. In the long - term, the positive logic remains unchanged. If there is a correction to the lower integer pressure level, one can consider building long - term positions through the option ratio spread structure [3] - **Silver**: After breaking through a new high this week, it entered an adjustment phase. In the short term, there is still a supplementary increase structure. In the medium - term, pay attention to the balance between the safe - haven attribute and industrial demand under the Middle East conflict. Long positions in silver can use the bear spread structure to hedge against correction risks. If the short - term volatility and price continue to rise significantly, one can build a call option selling position above to lock in profits [4] Other Key Information - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As the price of gold rose this week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly. If the gold - silver ratio drops significantly in the short term, one can consider going long [70]