Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products of Baocheng Futures on October 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period spreads of power coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025. The basis on September 30 was - 102.4 yuan/ton, and all inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) were 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - It provides the basis, price ratios, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities from September 24 to September 30, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on September 30 was 13.33 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on September 30 was - 730 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber was - 15 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on September 30 was 2298 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar was 54.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on September 30 was 3.95 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of rebar on September 30 was 138.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on September 30 was 80 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (42.98) [33] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on September 30 was 33 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads of various agricultural products are provided, including soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on September 30 was 1.83 [38] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 24 to September 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on September 30 was 22.69 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 9.8 [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the first trading day after the holiday, stock index futures are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On October 1st, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.18%, IH by 0.11%, IC by 0.96%, and IM by 1.16% [1]. - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 55,415 lots, IH by 38,045 lots, IC by 31,869 lots, and IM by 67,749 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 21,993 lots, IH by 14,682 lots, IC by 9,846 lots, and IM by 15,617 lots [1][2]. 3.2. Top 20 Member Positions in Stock Index Futures - The long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, in IF2510, the long - position decreased by 6,967 and the short - position decreased by 7,491; in IH2510, the long - position decreased by 4,068 and the short - position decreased by 4,615 [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.4. Important Drivers - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in the 19th issue of Qiushi Journal on October 1st, emphasizing the formation and development of the Chinese nation community [6]. - During the holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow exceeded 2 billion person - times, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The total box office of the 2025 National Day film season exceeded 1.7 billion yuan [6]. 3.5. External Factors - The US government's "shutdown" postponed the release of key economic data, bringing uncertainties. After the release of the US ADP data for September, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October rose to 99%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut by December reached 89.3% [7]. - Koike Sanae was elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to become the prime minister. Her tendency towards loose policies is beneficial to the Japanese stock market [8]. - OpenAI's video model Sora topped the application list, AMD reached a chip cooperation with OpenAI, and many multinational chip giants raised their quotes [9]. - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to contributors in the field of quantum mechanics, and the Nobel Prize in Medicine was also announced, reflecting global technological front - line trends [10]. 3.6. A - share Market Performance - On the last trading day of September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3,882.78 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index remained flat. The A - share market traded 2.2 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2.18 trillion yuan the previous day. The three major indexes have risen for five consecutive months, with the ChiNext Index rising more than 50% in the third quarter, achieving the second - best result in history [11].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On September 29, A-share major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.9% to 3862.53, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05% to 13479.43, the ChiNext Index up 2.74% to 3238.01, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.35% to 1470.41. Market turnover was 2178.1 billion yuan, an increase of 12 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In the bond market, the implied yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds showed different changes, with the 2-year up 0.8bps, the 5-year up 0.48bps, the 10-year down 3.42bps, and the 30-year up 5.89bps [3]. 2. Trading Strategies - In the medium to long term, maintain a bullish view on the economy, and recommend buying long-term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3]. - For bond futures, short-term is bullish as the implied yield of ultra-long bonds at 2.2 is cost-effective; in the medium to long term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 3. Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - Table 1 shows the performance of various index futures and spot indices, including their price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [6]. 4. Treasury Futures and Spot Market Performance - Table 2 presents the performance of various treasury futures and spot bonds, including price changes, trading volumes, and net basis [8]. 5. Short - term Funding Rate Market Changes - Table 3 shows the changes in short - term funding rates, such as SHIBOR overnight rates [12]. 6. Economic Data - High - frequency data indicates that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Group 1: Index Trends - On September 24th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83% to close at 3853.64 points, with a trading volume of 1015.708 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.8% to close at 13356.14 points, with a trading volume of 1311.076 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 1.7%, with a trading volume of 494.398 billion yuan. The opening price was 7375.91, the closing price was 7534.22, the highest price was 7534.22, and the lowest price was 7342.47 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 477.262 billion yuan. The opening price was 7140.31, the closing price was 7323.71, the highest price was 7327.02, and the lowest price was 7133.43 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.68%, with a trading volume of 157.195 billion yuan. The opening price was 2908.07, the closing price was 2939.51, the highest price was 2942.59, and the lowest price was 2908.07 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 126.15 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, computer, and power equipment significantly driving the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 143.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 46.29 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and computer significantly driving the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 20.0 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as electronics and non - banking finance significantly driving the index up, while the banking sector pulled the index down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 77.26, IM01 had - 162.97, IM02 had - 245.25, and IM03 had - 458.47 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 64.91, IC01 had - 135.65, IC02 had - 194.16, and IC03 had - 370.82 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.42, IF01 had - 24.74, IF02 had - 33.98, and IF03 had - 62.97 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.28, IH01 had - 0.36, IH02 had 0.56, and IH03 had 0.71 [12]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on IM roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, IM00 - 02 was - 259.4522, etc. [23]. - Data on IC roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222, IC00 - 02 was - 225.568, etc. [24]. - Data on IF roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678, IF00 - 02 was - 41.14122, etc. [25]. - Data on IH roll - over point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707, IH00 - 02 was 1.4593333, etc. [22]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Wang Ying (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0016367) [2] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: Securities Regulatory Permission [2011] No. 1290 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The stock market oscillated upward today, with small and medium - cap stocks rising significantly, mainly driven by Alibaba's positive news which led to the overall upward movement of the science and technology sector. The main contracts of IC and IM index futures corresponding to small and medium - cap indexes both rose by more than 3%. The basis increased significantly, and there was a phenomenon of short - sellers leaving the market considering the open interest. The overall stock index was still running below the previous high. [5] - Today, the total trading volume of the two markets narrowed to about 2.3 trillion yuan. In a market with shrinking volume driven by structural factors, the sustainability of the stock index rebound remains to be seen. It is not advisable to enter the market aggressively to chase the high before the holiday. Considering the previous day's market, there is still optimistic sentiment supporting the short - term market. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate around the previous high central point. The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [5] Market Review Summary - Today, the stock index trended upward. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.02%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 16.7598 billion yuan. In the futures market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume. [3] Important Information Summary - On September 24, at the 2025 Hangzhou Yunqi Conference, Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA reached a cooperation in the Physical AI field. Alibaba Cloud's artificial intelligence platform PAI will integrate NVIDIA's Physical AI software stack, providing enterprise users with full - link platform services such as data pre - processing, simulation data generation, model training and evaluation, robot reinforcement learning, and simulation testing, further shortening the development cycle of applications such as embodied intelligence and assisted driving. [4] - Alibaba Cloud announced the launch of Qwen3 - Max, the largest and most powerful model developed by the Tongyi Qianwen team to date. [4] Index Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Intraday Percentage Change (%) | 1.69 | 0.94 | 3.90 | 3.21 | | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | 14.6745 | 6.2124 | 17.718 | 29.362 | | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.4218 | - 0.9047 | - 0.4626 | - 3.5404 | | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | 26.37 | 9.8305 | 25.5972 | 36.5491 | | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.314 | - 0.3523 | - 0.589 | - 2.7949 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Percentage Change (%) | 0.83 | | Shenzhen Component Index Percentage Change (%) | 1.80 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 5.18 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23267.84 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1675.98 | [7]

Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the stock market on September 22, including the performance of major indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis of stock index futures, and the points difference and annualized cost of futures contract roll - over. Summary by Section Index Trends - On September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to close at 3828.58 points with a trading volume of 941.8 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to close at 13157.97 points with a trading volume of 1179.683 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.69% with a trading volume of 440.515 billion yuan, opening at 7457.89, closing at 7489.48, with a high of 7489.48 and a low of 7418.46 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.76% with a trading volume of 421.916 billion yuan, opening at 7182.89, closing at 7225.13, with a high of 7225.86 and a low of 7143.08 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 156.401 billion yuan, opening at 2911.02, closing at 2922.18, with a high of 2929.52 and a low of 2901.12 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.46% with a trading volume of 563.149 billion yuan, opening at 4512.03, closing at 4522.61, with a high of 4523.87 and a low of 4487.13 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 51.29 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, computers, and machinery having a significant upward pull on the index [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 54.78 points from the previous close, with electronics, computers, and power equipment sectors having a significant upward pull [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 20.69 points from the previous close, with electronics, computers, and non - bank finance sectors having an upward pull, while food and beverage, and banking sectors had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 12.44 points from the previous close, with electronics, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals sectors having an upward pull, while food and beverage, and banking sectors had a downward pull [3]. Basis of Stock Index Futures and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 95.65, IM01 had - 178.8, IM02 had - 260.61, and IM03 had - 471.29 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 81.87, IC01 had - 148.19, IC02 had - 210.53, and IC03 had - 380.13 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 14.2, IF01 had - 27.64, IF02 had - 39.11, and IF03 had - 64.45 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.33, IH01 had 0.79, IH02 had 1.54, and IH03 had 4.06 [12]. Points Difference in Futures Contract Roll - over and Annualized Costs - Detailed data on the points difference in contract roll - over and their annualized costs are provided for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23][25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Category 1. Power Coal - Recorded the daily basis and spread data of power coal from September 15 - 19, 2025, with the basis gradually increasing from -115.4 yuan/ton to -97.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 remaining at 0.0 [1][2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Presented the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 15 - 19, 2025, including the basis of fuel oil and INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - Showed the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of chemical products. The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from September 15 - 19, 2025 were given, as well as the inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for multiple chemicals and the inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. [9][11] 3. Black Metals - Displayed the inter - period spreads and inter - commodity spreads of black metals. The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided, along with the inter - commodity spreads like the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc. from September 15 - 19, 2025 [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Recorded the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [28] (2) London Market - Presented the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals on September 19, 2025 [34] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads of agricultural products. The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from September 15 - 19, 2025 were shown, as well as the inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products and the inter - commodity spreads such as the ratio of soybeans to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc. [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - Recorded the basis and inter - period spreads of stock index futures. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 15 - 19, 2025 were presented, along with the inter - period spreads of the next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter for different stock indices [51]

Group 1: Macro and Market Overview - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, and the market is now focused on the future interest - rate path and economic data, especially the labor market [1][2][4] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][2][4] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to oscillate around the current level, and the policy guidance signal of the RMB central parity rate needs to be closely watched [2] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures declined due to the fulfillment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but the overall upward trend remains unchanged due to the interest - rate cut cycles in both China and the US [4] - The small - and medium - cap stock index futures are relatively stronger in the short term, with limited downside space [4] Group 3: Treasury Bonds - The Treasury bond futures closed down, and the yield of most spot bonds rose. The market is waiting for the central bank's attitude [5] - The new 2Y and 7Y bonds issued last week have been included in the deliverable bonds, but have not significantly affected the futures price [5] Group 4: Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures prices oscillated slightly downward. The near - month contracts have fallen to a relatively appropriate level, but may continue to decline [6][7] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and wait and see, and look for low - buying opportunities in the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [7] Group 5: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are in a high - level oscillation stage after the Fed's interest - rate cut. The market focus is on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and tariff policies [8] - It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [9] Group 6: Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price declined due to the Fed's interest - rate decision. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia had a production reduction due to a mudslide [11] - The trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [11] Zinc - The zinc price was weak. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see for the internal - external reverse arbitrage or sell out - of - the - money call options [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by the market and were weak. The fundamentals have no obvious changes [14][15] Tin - The tin price declined slightly. The supply is tight in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [15][16] Lead - The lead price was in a high - level oscillation. The supply is relatively weak compared to the demand, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillation in the short term [16][17] Group 7: Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were weak. The overall steel market is still in the process of inventory reduction, and the price is expected to oscillate after digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut [18] Iron Ore - The iron ore price oscillated around 800. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate based on fundamentals [19][20] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal price stopped falling and rebounded, and the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented. It is not recommended to short coking coal, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities at low basis [21] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices were affected by the news of the increase in the standard of submerged arc furnaces in the metallurgical industry. The short - term price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to try long positions [22] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price fell slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range in the short term, and the probability of a short - term correction has increased [24][25] LPG - The LPG price declined. The supply is controllable, and the demand is lack of clear drivers, so it is expected to oscillate [25][26] PTA - PX - The PX - PTA prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The polyester demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the PTA processing fee repair is limited [27][28][29] Methanol - The methanol price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [29][30] PP - The PP price is supported by the cost side, but the demand is in the "peak season without peak" situation. The downward space is limited, and a rebound may occur if the device shutdown increases [31][32] PE - The PE price is in a weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upward drivers and limited downward space, and is expected to oscillate [34][35] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices are weak, with high inventory and low valuation. They are expected to oscillate and follow the cost side [36][37] Fuel Oil - It is recommended to short the cracking profit of fuel oil. The export volume is decreasing, and the demand is stable [37][38] Asphalt - The asphalt price is affected by the increase in supply and the inability to release demand. The inventory structure is improving. It may have a last chance to rise this year [39] Rubber and 20 - Rubber - The rubber prices fell. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is stable in the short term. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [40][41][42] Group 9: Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The soda ash price is under pressure due to the high - level supply expectation. The demand is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand [43] Glass - The glass price lacks a clear trend. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand in the near term, and factors such as supply ignition and coal price need to be followed [44][45] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak in the spot market. The downstream demand is stable, and the supply fluctuates due to maintenance [46] Group 10: Pulp - The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The macro - level interest - rate cut has a positive impact, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers [46][47] Group 11: Propylene - The propylene price declined. The supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price followed the decline of PP [49][50] Group 12: Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The live pig price declined. The supply is still high in September, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51] Oilseeds - The soybean market is affected by Sino - US negotiations. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the downstream demand is stable [51][53] Vegetable Oils - The vegetable oil prices declined due to the uncertainty of the US bio - fuel policy. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53][54] Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 futures price rebounded slightly. The new - season soybean price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short - hedge positions [54] Corn and Starch - The corn and starch prices are expected to be weak as new grains are gradually coming onto the market [53][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It also presents forecasts on global and regional soybean production, trade, and consumption, as well as the impact of weather on crops [1][7]. Summary by Section 01 & 02 Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products are presented, along with currency exchange rates and basis data for some futures contracts [1][2]. - For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil for December is 4439.00, with a previous -day decline of 0.89% and an overnight decline of 0.11% [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook for major soybean - producing states in the US from September 23 - 27 shows higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation near to below the median in the Midwest [3]. - The high temperature in the Midwest and rainfall in the west are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvesting, but may help reduce drought and supply water to the Mississippi River [5]. - International Supply and Demand - - IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons, and the trade volume in 2024/25 will increase by 2 million tons month - on - month [7]. - As of September 16, about 36% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 22% the previous week [8]. - As of September 11, US soybean export sales increased by 925,300 tons, meeting expectations, and the export shipment volume increased by 31% compared to the previous week [8]. - CONAB estimates that Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons [10]. - The EU and UK's rapeseed production in 2025 is expected to be 21.6 million tons, higher than the June forecast [10]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - - On September 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 380 tons (2%) compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On September 18, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 99,200 tons compared to the previous day, and the national oil - mill operating rate decreased by 1.13% [14]. - China's August imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the cumulative imports from January - August showed different trends [14]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9% [17]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on November 5 regarding the legality of Trump's large - scale global tariff collection [17]. - Domestic News - - On September 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1085, up 72 points (yuan depreciation) [19]. - On September 18, the Chinese central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 18, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 10.858 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.128 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 16.653 billion yuan and bond futures had a net inflow of 390 million yuan [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.