Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on December 23, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report provides the basis data of power coal from December 16 to December 22, 2025. During this period, the basis values were - 74.4, - 83.4, - 90.4, - 98.4, and - 106.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It shows the basis, price ratio, and other data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from December 16 to December 22, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 22 was 34.10 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 22 was - 405 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rubber was - 40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 22 was 1693 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on December 22 was 194.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9(10) - month - 1 - month, and 9(10) - month - 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of rebar was - 2.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 22 was 4.00 [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 22 was - 510 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit - loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 6.58 [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 22 was - 85 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - month - 1 - month, 9 - month - 1 - month, and 9 - month - 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - month - 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 49 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc. from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on December 22 was 1.87 [41]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 16 to December 22, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 22 was 46.82 [52]. - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 15.2 [52].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 国债期货周报 经济内生动能偏弱，期债阶段性修复 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对性措施，着力 扩大有效投资。要扩大新兴产业有效投资，保持合理政府投资力度，研究调整地方政府专项债券项目"自审自发"试点范围；2、商务部会同财 政部召开"三新"试点工作部署推进会。会议强调，各试点城市要进一步完善实施方案，建立健全工作推进和保障机制，抓紧出台试点资金 （项目）管理办法，紧扣"三新"试点支持方向，精心筛选支持项目，强化项目动态管理；3、市场监管总局强调，要加力推进全国统一大市场 建设，强化公平竞争治理，推动经济循环畅通。要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，推动形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%；规模以上工业增加值同 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 19, 2025, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as thermal coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - Basis data from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows a continuous decline, from - 56.40 yuan/ton on December 12 to - 90.40 yuan/ton on December 18 [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Provides basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [7]. (2) Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows different trends for each commodity [9]. - Inter - month spread data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [10]. - Inter - commodity spread data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [10]. III. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows significant fluctuations [20]. - Inter - month spread data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [18]. - Inter - commodity spread data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [18]. IV. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 12 to December 18, 2025, shows different trends [28]. (2) London Market - LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 18, 2025 [33]. V. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [39]. - Inter - month spread data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [39]. - Inter - commodity spread data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 12 to December 16, 2025 [39]. VI. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [50]. - Inter - month spread data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads [50].

Core Viewpoint - The 11th "CFFEX Cup" National College Student Financial Knowledge Competition successfully concluded, attracting a record number of participants and highlighting the importance of financial education and talent cultivation in China [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The competition lasted for two and a half months and was co-hosted by CFFEX and the China Futures Association, with a total of 69,814 university students participating from over 2,730 universities globally, setting historical records for both participation and coverage since its inception in 2014 [1]. - A total of 1,331 outstanding students were awarded various prizes, including special awards, first, second, third prizes, and merit awards, contributing to the construction of a strong financial nation [1]. Group 2: Educational Impact - The event introduced an innovative dual-track mechanism comprising a "financial knowledge quiz" and a "simulated trading track," aimed at enhancing both theoretical foundations and practical skills for students from diverse academic backgrounds [2]. - Participants included students from top comprehensive universities, key financial institutions, and local特色高校, promoting the integration of education and industry while fostering a diverse talent pool in finance [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - CFFEX plans to deepen the collaborative education mechanism under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, focusing on the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and enhancing the political and public nature of capital market work [3]. - The competition aims to upgrade financial knowledge dissemination from mere knowledge transfer to capability development, contributing to the establishment of a safe, regulated, transparent, and vibrant capital market [3].

中金所表示，未来将牢牢践行资本市场工作的政治性、人民性，持续深化"局所校协"协同育人机制，推 动金融知识普及从"知识灌输"向"能力塑造"升级，为加快构建安全、规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧 性的资本市场，源源不断输送德才兼备的后备军，为金融强国建设贡献青春力量。 记者从中国金融期货交易所（以下简称"中金所"）获悉，历经两个半月的激烈角逐与层层选拔，由中金 所、中国期货业协会联合主办的第十一届"中金所杯"全国大学生金融知识大赛于近日圆满落幕。 本届赛事创新构建"金融知识答题赛道"与"模拟交易赛道"并行机制，既深挖理论根基，又锤炼实战能 力，为财经专业学子与跨学科人才搭建多元成长平台。参赛者涵盖顶尖综合性大学、重点财经院校，以 及地方特色高校，真正为各类高校探索"产教融合"培养金融复合型后备人才提供来自国家金融基础设施 和行业协会的服务合力。参赛选手专业背景从金融工程到计算机、数学、法学等多个专业，学子们以多 元视角共绘金融知识图谱，激发学金融、懂金融、用金融的热潮。学生们踊跃参与的背后，是国家对高 素质金融人才的迫切呼唤，更是新时代青年主动担当、投身金融强国建设的坚定回应。 作为连接校园与金融期货市场的桥梁纽带 ...

Group 1: Index Trends - On December 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.11% to close at 3824.81 points, with a trading volume of 733.294 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.51% to 12914.67 points, with a trading volume of 990.879 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.74% with a trading volume of 361.622 billion yuan, opening at 7302.16, closing at 7181.62, reaching a high of 7302.16 and a low of 7143.61 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 1.58% with a trading volume of 284.969 billion yuan, opening at 7101.67, closing at 7001.32, reaching a high of 7102.77 and a low of 6962.65 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped by 1.08% with a trading volume of 103.324 billion yuan, opening at 2980.94, closing at 2954.79, reaching a high of 2986.08 and a low of 2946.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped by 1.08% with a trading volume of 103.324 billion yuan, opening at 2980.94, closing at 2954.79, reaching a high of 2986.08 and a low of 2946.6 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 127.46 points from the previous close, with sectors such as non - ferrous metals, machinery, and power equipment significantly pulling the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 fell 112.64 points from the previous close, with non - ferrous metals, power equipment, and electronics sectors having a notable downward pull [2]. - The SSE 300 decreased 54.51 points from the previous close, and sectors like electronics, communication, and power equipment pulled the index down [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 32.28 points from the previous close, with pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors having a negative impact [2]. Group 3: Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For the IM series, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 4.47, IM01 of - 75.84, IM02 of - 234.12, and IM03 of - 475.0 [10]. - For the IC series, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 6.25, IC01 of - 60.11, IC02 of - 177.2, and IC03 of - 374.84 [10]. - For the IF series, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 10.05, IF01 of - 26.66, IF02 of - 54.69, and IF03 of - 98.76 [10]. - For the IH series, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 8.35, IH01 of - 13.44, IH02 of - 15.38, and IH03 of - 29.46 [10]. Group 4: Report Information - The report was written by the Macro - Finance Group of Everbright Futures Research Institute [19]. - The financial engineering analyst is Wang Dongying, with futures qualification number F03087149 and trading consultation number Z0019537 [19]. - The macro - finance team members include Zhu Jintao, Yu Jie, Zhao Fuchu, and Wang Dongying, each with their respective educational backgrounds, positions, and professional qualification numbers [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Carbon Emission Rights**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - **Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - **Zinc**: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - **Synthetic Materials** - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **Basic Chemicals** - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: December 16, 2025 [1] - Report issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Market Performance A-share Market - On December 15, the four major A-share indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% to 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.1% to 13112.09 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.77% to 3137.8 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 2.22% to 1318.91 points. Market turnover was 1.7944 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-bank finance (+1.59%), commerce and trade retail (+1.49%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.24%) led the gains, while electronics (-2.42%), communication (-1.89%), and media (-1.63%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2313/176/2965 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -16.8 billion, -19.2 billion, 3.8 billion, and 32.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -14 billion, -13.1 billion, +16.2 billion, and +10.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 73.88, 53.16, 24.26, and 8.47 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -10.99%, -8.12%, -5.79%, and -3.08% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 36%, 30%, 20%, and 26% respectively [3]. Bond Futures - On December 15, interest - rate bonds performed weakly. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF dropped 0.03%, T declined 0.12%, and TL decreased 0.99% [3]. Short - term Capital Market - In open - market operations, the central bank injected 130.9 billion yuan and withdrew 122.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 8.6 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. Bond Futures - In the medium - to - long term, with the upward shift of risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. Group 4: Market Data Tables Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows detailed data such as the code, name, change percentage, current price, trading volume, and basis of various stock index futures and spot products [6]. Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents data including the code, name, change percentage, current price, trading volume, and net basis of various bond futures and spot products [8]. Short - term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago of SHIBOR overnight [11]. Group 5: Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, and social activities is currently lower than in previous periods, and further observation is needed [11].

金融期货 2026 年年报 金融期货和期权：半江瑟瑟半江红 ——2025 年金融期货市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 宏观金融与航运团队 李彦森 Z0013871 摘要： 2025 年股指呈现持续震荡向上走势，以及明显的三阶段走势特征。国内经济稳经 济政策、"反内卷"带来经济修复预期、贸易冲突中中国经济的韧性等，是带动市 场情绪改善、支持指数上行的主要原因，并叠加有新质生产力行业预期改善、中美 贸易冲突暂停、A 股市场机制改革、美联储降息等阶段性利好因素影响，但指数受到 经济基本面支持有限。债市今年逻辑与此前相比有所变化，受"资产荒"影响明显 下降，受政策扩张、通缩改善影响上升，整体呈现出价格回落、利率反弹走势，且 曲线逐步陡峭化。我们预计 2026 年宏观政策、新质生产力行业仍是股指的主要带动， 同时经济基本面支持将逐步上升，叠加依然存在的地缘政治风险看，股指仍将继续 宽幅震荡、中枢抬升的走势。债市则依然将面临通缩转向通胀、名义增速修复的风 险。而财政政策大概率加速扩张，对净供给也有不利影。但货币政策宽松支持下， 利率上方有顶。曲线则继续陡峭化步伐不变。 预计 2026 年股指均为震荡上行、 ...