他提到，当前我国资本市场估值重构，资金流入和市场向好，相互促进的良好局面已经形成，这是各方 努力的宝贵成果，也是深刻反映着全球资本对中国经济的信心和期待。吸引更多中长期资金入市需要适 宜的环境和土壤，其中也离不开金融期货等风险管理工具。"十五五"规划建议提出稳步发展期货和衍生 品，证监会也强调将丰富适配长期投资的产品和风险管理工具，这为推动金融期货市场更好服务长期资 金入市和高质量发展也指明了方向。 专题：南方财经论坛2025年会 由南方财经全媒体集团主办、21世纪数字传媒主要承办的"南方财经论坛2025年会"于12月5-6日在广州 南方财经大厦举办，主题为"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"。中国金融期货交易所党委委 员、副总经理蔡向辉出席并演讲。 谈及金融期货服务中长期资金入市，蔡向辉表示，中长期资金入市意义重大，金融期货责无旁贷。大力 推动中长期资金入市，有利于增强资本市场专业力量，推动市场生态向价值投资、长期投资转型。有利 于将社会资金转化为耐心资本，长钱长投，适配科技创新新需要，为实体经济高质量发展和国家重大战 略实施提供稳定支持。当然也有利于中长期资金充分把握长期机会，有效应对低利率时代挑战， ...

金融研究 2025年12月4日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 3 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.51%，报收 3878 点；深成指 下跌 0.78%，报收 12955.25 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3036.79 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.89%， 报收 1308.37 点。市场成交 16,836 亿元，较前日增加 763 亿元。行业板块方面，交通运输(+0.69%)， 有色金属(+0.63%)，煤炭(+0.57%)涨幅居前；传媒(-2.86%)，计算机(-2.26%)，房地产(-1.53%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,442/137/3,872。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-215、-238、89、364 亿元，分别变动-20、-121、+19、+123 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 127.07、102.56、28.85 与 11.28 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-14.14%、-11.82%、-5.13%与-3.07%，三年期 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-12-03 12 月 02 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.42%，收于 3897.71 点，成交额 6274.41 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.68%，收于 13056.7 点，成交额 9659.9 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.0%，成交额 3202.19 亿元，其中开盘价 7364.2，收盘价 7313.18，当日最高价 7364.2，最低价 7299.27； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.87%，成交额 2473.6 亿元，其中开盘价 7084.8，收盘价 7040.3，当日最高价 7085.3，最低价 7022.61； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.48%，成交额 3643.66 亿元，其中开盘价 4571.91，收盘价 4554.33，当日最高价 4575.49，最低价 4539.43； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.51%，成交额 791.66 亿元，其中开盘价 2992.38，收盘价 2978.47，当日最高价 2994.71，最低价 2970.95。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 1000 较前收盘 ...

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-11-27 一、指数走势 11 月 26 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.15%，收于 3864.18 点，成交额 7010.2 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 1.02%，收于 12907.83 点，成交额 10823.27 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.02%，成交额 3769.64 亿元，其中开盘价 7236.66，收盘价 7248.45，当日最高价 7307.2，最低价 7225.09； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.15%，成交额 2748.58 亿元，其中开盘价 6946.08，收盘价 6965.05，当日最高价 7024.88，最低价 6936.88； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅 0.61%，成交额 4273.61 亿元，其中开盘价 4490.2，收盘价 4517.63，当日最高价 4538.14，最低价 4485.7； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅 0.12%，成交额 972.58 亿元，其中开盘价 2969.78，收盘价 2971.8，当日最高价 2979.98，最低价 2968.02。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching $4,100 during the day but ultimately closing at $4,076.7 per ounce, reflecting market reactions to a strong dollar and tempered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices dropped by 0.15% to close at $4,076.7 per ounce on the COMEX [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.53%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.76% [1] Group 2: Employment Data - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The October meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve revealed significant divisions among members, with a lack of guiding data contributing to this discord [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October non-farm payroll report, incorporating the data into the November report set for release on December 16, after the Fed's final meeting of the year [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 27% probability priced in, which has negatively impacted precious metals [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

证券之星消息，11月14日多元金融板块较上一交易日下跌0.22%，瑞达期货领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3990.49，下跌0.97%。深证成指报收于13216.03，下跌1.93%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日多元金融板块主力资金净流入1008.41万元，游资资金净流出8657.8万元，散户 资金净流入7649.4万元。多元金融板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000958 | 电投产融 | 2.70 Z | 32.10% | -1.32 Z | -15.73% | -1.38 Z | -16.37% | | 603300 | 海南华铁 | 8595.07万 | 7.14% | 1295.77万 | 1.08% | -9890.84万 | -8.22% | | 000415 | 渤海租赁 | 3471.63万 | 11.53% | -2990.74万 | ...