新华财经北京9月25日电（吴郑思） 铜矿供应紧张的老话题再添新料，全球铜价应声大涨！ 9月24日，全球第二大铜矿因遭遇不可抗力而暂时停产的消息，驱动全球铜价急涨。截至收盘，伦铜涨 超3%，创去年5月以来新高；COMEX期铜飙升超4%，刷新近两个月高点；国内沪铜和国际铜也在夜盘 时段双双涨超3%，触及六个月高位。 虽然供应紧张对铜矿而言早已不是什么新故事，但在分析人士看来，在供应紧张本就没有实时性改善的 背景下，短期大型铜矿停产将进一步加剧铜矿偏紧对市场的影响，叠加"金九银十"传统消费旺季的推 进，铜价易涨难跌的格局将进一步巩固。 全球第二大铜矿突发停产铜供应恐进一步收紧 北京时间9月24日傍晚，自由港麦克莫兰公司（Freeport）表示，其位于印尼格拉斯伯格（Grasberg）区 块洞穴矿在一场致命的泥流事故后被暂停开采，这将导致短期内的铜和黄金产量下降，但有望在2027年 恢复到事故发生前的运营水平。 根据公开资料，格拉斯伯格铜矿（又称弗瑞波特铜矿）位于印尼伊里安查亚省蒂米卡地区，为世界第二 大铜矿。该矿主要产出铜、金、银及铁矿，矿石储量约2.8亿吨。该矿体约占自由港印尼公司探明和可 能储量的一半，并贡献公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has declared force majeure due to a significant landslide, leading to a halt in production and raising concerns about long-term copper supply shortages, which has resulted in a sharp increase in copper prices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The incident at the Grasberg mine was triggered by a large landslide on September 8, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers, prompting Freeport to suspend all production activities [2][3]. - The declaration of force majeure allows Freeport to suspend supply contracts due to unforeseen disasters, which has been classified as a "black swan" event by Wall Street analysts [2][7]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures surged nearly 4%, reaching $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell in pre-market trading, contrasting with gains for competitors like Glencore and Boliden [5][6]. - Analysts noted that traders reacted instinctively to the supply panic, leading to immediate buying in the market [6]. Group 3: Supply Impact - Goldman Sachs estimates that the Grasberg mine's shutdown could result in a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12-15 months, with potential further losses of 1-2 million tons [7][10]. - The Grasberg mine contributes approximately 3.2% of global copper supply and nearly 30% of Freeport's copper production, highlighting its significance in the market [9]. Group 4: Long-term Production Outlook - Freeport has lowered its copper and gold sales guidance for Q3, expecting a reduction of 4% and 6% respectively compared to previous estimates [12]. - The company anticipates a potential 35% drop in copper and gold production for 2026, with a full recovery to pre-incident production levels not expected until 2027 [13][14][18]. Group 5: Infrastructure Damage - The landslide caused approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material to flood the underground mine, damaging essential infrastructure including railways and power systems [15][16]. - Freeport has outlined a recovery timeline, but the outlook remains bleak, with the earliest restart for unaffected areas projected for mid-Q4 2025 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China announced new national independent contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas net emissions by 7 - 10% from the peak by 2035 and increase the total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation to 36 billion kilowatts [22][24]. - The glass market's short - term trend is likely to be strong due to policy anti - involution expectations and industry meetings [8]. - The short - term volatility of the Container Freight Index (Europe Line) may increase, and different trading strategies are proposed based on whether the price increase is implemented [11]. - Copper prices have risen significantly due to supply disruptions from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight [12][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to reach new highs, with a trend strength of 0; silver is in a shock adjustment phase, with a trend strength of 1 [17][25]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of gold and silver futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [22]. 3.2 Copper - Copper prices have risen sharply due to the Grasberg mine's force majeure event, and the supply of copper raw materials is expected to tighten, with a trend strength of 2 [12][29]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [27]. 3.3 Zinc - Zinc prices show a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [17][32]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of zinc futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant news [30]. 3.4 Lead - Lead prices are supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0 [17][33]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. 3.5 Tin - Tin prices are in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [17][40]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of tin futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant macro and industry news [36]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum shows a shock - upward trend, alumina is in a range - bound shock, and cast aluminum alloy is stronger than electrolytic aluminum, with trend strengths of 1, 0, and 1 respectively [17][43]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [41]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices are in a low - level shock due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations; stainless steel prices are in a shock operation due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost, with trend strengths of 0 for both [17][50]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot markets are presented, along with macro and industry news [44]. 3.8 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium is in a shock trend as pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end, with a trend strength of 0 [17][53]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of carbonate lithium futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [51]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon shows resistance in the market, and polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment due to upstream sudden maintenance, with trend strengths of 0 and 1 respectively [17][56]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets are presented, along with macro and industry news [54]. 3.10 Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock due to repeated expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [17][57]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [57]. 3.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a wide - range shock, with trend strengths of 0 for both [17][63]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are presented, along with macro and industry news [60]. 3.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are in a wide - range shock due to sector sentiment resonance, with trend strengths of 0 for both [64][66]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant news [65]. 3.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices are in a wide - range shock due to repeated expectations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [17][68]. - The prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are presented, along with relevant news [68]. 3.14 Logs - Log prices are in a repeated shock, but no detailed data or analysis is provided in the report [70].

一场重大矿难事故正让全球第二大铜矿陷入停产，并由此引发了全球金属市场的强烈震动。 9月24日，美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）发表声明宣布，其供应合同进入"不可抗力"状态。而这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性 为"黑天鹅事件"，点燃了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 华尔街见闻写道，事件的核心是Freeport位于印尼的Grasberg矿山。该公司确认，9月8日发生的一场大规模泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有 五人失踪。作为应对，公司已全面暂停该矿区的生产活动，并启动了不可抗力条款，该条款允许生产商在遭遇不可预见的灾难时暂停履行供应合 同。 市场的反应立竿见影。消息传出后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅。Freeport的股价在盘前交易中重挫， 而其竞争对手如嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司的股价则应声上涨。 丹麦盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen对此评论道："交易员们先买入，然后再问问题"，精准地描绘了市场在供应恐慌下的本能反应。 高盛："黑天鹅"来袭，供应缺口或达数十万吨 高盛的大宗商品团队将此次Grasberg矿山 ...

Freeport预计最早要到2027年才能恢复事故前的生产水平，2026年铜金产量较此前预期下降约35%。受供应中断预期推动，截至周三纽约尾盘时段， COMEX铜期货上涨近4%、报4.825美元/磅，嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司股价均出现上涨。 美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发生致命泥石流事故，推动全球铜价大幅上涨并引发供应链担忧。这座全球第二大铜矿因事 故暂停生产，公司已启动不可抗力条款。 Freeport确认，其位于印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿9月8日发生的泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。约80万公吨湿润物质 突然涌入矿井，波及多个作业层面，在该公司数十年开采历史中史无前例。 受供应中断预期推动，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价一度跳涨2%至每吨10172美元。Freeport股价盘前重挫9.6%，而其他铜业公司则因供应预期收紧 而大涨。欧洲市场上，Antofagasta、KGHM、英美公司、嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司股价均出现上涨。 截至周三纽约尾盘时段，COMEX铜期货上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅，逼近7月30 ...

预防式降息开启，铜价高位震荡 沪铜周度报告·2025年9月22日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -41.3 | -40.8 | 0.50 | 1.21% | 矿端供应扰动持续 ，Grasberg铜矿仍处于暂停状态 原料供应仍偏紧 现货市场成交 ， ， 活跃度降低 成交结果仍显清淡 现货TC小幅反弹 ， ， 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 1734 | 1917 | 183 | 10.55% | 美联储降息落地叠加鲍威尔意外放鹰 后续降息路径仍偏保守 市场乐观情绪降温 ， ， ， 铜价高位回调 精废价差因此收窄 ， 。 | | | 南方粗铜加工费（元/ 吨 ） | 700 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates as expected but made a hawkish statement. The short - term sentiment is under pressure, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment is not expected to be significantly suppressed. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight. Although the peak - season demand is mediocre currently, as the long holiday approaches, the downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. The short - term price may rise in a volatile manner. This week, the operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is expected to operate between 9,850 - 10,150 US dollars/ton[12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates rebounded slightly, the processing fee for blister copper remained flat, and the supply of scrap copper remained tight. Ivanhoe Mines started the second phase of the dewatering plan for the Kakula copper mine and postponed the release of its copper production guidance for the next two years[11]. - **Inventory**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 11,000 tons week - on - week. The SHFE inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 106,000 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 148,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 287,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased slightly. The spot premium in Shanghai on Friday was 70 yuan/ton over the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 64.9 US dollars/ton[11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. In August 2025, China's refined copper imports were 307,000 tons, with a net import of 270,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 2.53 million tons, and the net imports were 2.071 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%[11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market was relatively mediocre. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly[11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices rose and then fell. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.42% for the week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.68% to 9,996 US dollars/ton[20]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous price of electrolytic copper was 80,050 yuan on September 19, 2025[23]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Domestic copper prices rose and then fell, and spot transactions were relatively average. On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The LME inventory decreased, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 64.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. Last week, the spot import loss of domestic electrolytic copper first widened and then narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) fluctuated upwards[26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profits**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates rebounded slightly to - 40.8 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China declined, but still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue[34]. - **Import - Export Ratios and Profits and Losses**: The import - export ratio data was presented in relevant charts. The spot import loss of copper first widened and then narrowed[39]. - **Inventory**: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 106,000 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 148,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 6,000 tons to 287,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 77,000 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased. The number of copper warrants increased by 6,278 to 31,838 tons. The LME inventory decrease came from Asian and European warehouses, while the inventory in North American warehouses increased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants declined[42][45][48]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in August 2025 declined slightly month - on - month, and the decline in September is expected to widen to 40,000 - 50,000 tons. According to NBS data, the domestic refined copper output in August 2025 was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%[53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In August 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 3.536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The imports of anode copper in August were 62,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 528,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.1%. The exports of refined copper in August were 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper processing trade exports rebounded. The imports of recycled copper in August were 179,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.515 million tons, a year - on - year slight decrease[56][59][62][68][71]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The consumption structures of global and Chinese electrolytic copper were presented in relevant charts[75]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI and Caixin manufacturing PMI both rebounded in August, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI rising above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The manufacturing sentiment of major overseas economies improved marginally, with the manufacturing PMIs of the US, the Eurozone, Japan, and India all rising[78]. - **Output Data of Downstream Industries**: In August, the year - on - year output of some copper downstream industries such as automobiles, air conditioners, refrigerators, and power generation equipment increased, while that of color TVs, washing machines, AC motors, and freezers decreased. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased[81]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to August, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all showing year - on - year declines, and the declines all widened. The national real estate climate index continued to decline in August[84]. - **Operating Rates of Downstream Enterprises**: The operating rates of downstream copper enterprises showed different trends. For example, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in August rebounded and is expected to continue to rise in September; the operating rate of scrap copper rod enterprises declined in August and is expected to continue to decline in September[87]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reporting 1,752 yuan/ton on Friday[99]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 86,984 to 958,062 lots (bilateral), among which the positions of the near - month 2510 contract were 233,104 lots (bilateral)[104]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of September 16, CFTC fund positions remained net long, with the net long ratio rising to 12.6%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds rebounded (as of September 12)[107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Since the Fed's interest rate meeting, copper prices have declined due to the implementation of interest rate cuts, but other fundamental factors have not changed significantly. In the long term, the Fed may continue to cut interest rates, so copper prices are expected to strengthen again in the future. It is recommended to conduct buy hedging on dips around the 79,000 - 79,300 yuan/ton level. Arbitrage should be postponed, and short put options at 78,000 yuan/ton are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 79,620 yuan/ton, a -1.17% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,680 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized. The average price of SMM 1 copper was 79,880 - 80,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton (unchanged) over the main contract. The buying and selling sentiment both improved. It is expected that downstream procurement will continue on Friday, and the premium may remain stable [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary - **Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. However, the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3]. - **Industrial Dynamics**: The US government is promoting a $5 - billion mineral investment fund. If established, it will be the US government's first direct participation in large - scale mineral transactions [3]. 3.3 Mine - End Situation - In August 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.76 million tons, a 7.81% month - on - month increase and a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The import value was $7.50821 billion, an 8.39% month - on - month increase and an 18.00% year - on - year increase [4]. - Canadian copper company Ivanhoe Mines agreed to a $500 - million investment from Qatar, giving the Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund a 4% stake in the company [4]. 3.4 Smelting and Import Situation - In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 112,916 tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The cumulative exports from January to August were 1.046963 million tons, a 9.7% year - on - year increase [5]. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 430,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to August were 3.54 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In August 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.301 million tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. In September, due to maintenance and anode copper supply shortages, production is expected to decline significantly [5]. 3.5 Consumption Situation In August 2025, China's copper product output was 2.222 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to August was 16.598 million tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Situation - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,175 tons to 148,875 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons to 32,469 tons [6]. - On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,900 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.7 Price and Basis Data The report provides data on spot premiums, different types of copper prices, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis spreads, and arbitrage ratios from September 12, August 20 to September 19, 2025 [26][27][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium of copper has rebounded, limiting the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,580, down 1.22% during the day and up 0.10% at night to 79660. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,946, down 0.28% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,310, an increase of 27,376 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,604, a decrease of 6,478. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,733, a decrease of 12,807, and the open interest was 290,000, a decrease of 2,734 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 32,469, a decrease of 822, and the inventory of LME Copper was 148,875, a decrease of 900. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Copper was 9.03%, a decrease of 0.61% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes. For example, the spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 10 to 70 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][3]. - **Industry News**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia owned by Freeport McMoRan remains shut down as it continues to rescue seven workers trapped underground. Panama plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the复产 of the Cobre Panamá copper mine, with negotiations expected to start at the end of this year or early next year. In July, the copper production of Codelco and BHP's Escondida mine increased year - on - year, with Codelco producing 118,500 tons (up 6.4%) and Escondida producing 114,800 tons (up 7.8%). Chinese copper production increased slightly in August but is expected to decline in September due to routine maintenance and a shortage of anode copper supply. Ivanhoe Mines will announce the copper production guidance for Kamoa - Kakula in 2026 and 2027 after greater progress in the second - stage water - pumping work [1][3]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Anglo American have signed a formal agreement to jointly develop the Los Bronces and Andina copper mines, expected to produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper over 21 years starting in 2030 [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The joint mining plan will be implemented starting in 2030 and will last for 21 years [1] - A new operating company will be established, with both companies holding a 50% stake, to coordinate the joint mining plan and optimize processing capacity [1] - The agreement is expected to generate at least $5 billion in pre-tax net present value, which will be evenly distributed between the two companies [1] Group 2: Production and Cost Efficiency - The two mines are projected to increase annual refined copper production by approximately 120,000 tons, with unit costs expected to be 15% lower than independent operations [1] - In 2024, the combined output from the Andina and Los Bronces mines is estimated to be around 350,000 tons per year, positioning them among the top ten copper mines globally [1] - With the anticipated annual increase of 120,000 tons from the joint plan, the mines could rank among the top five globally [1]