Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Risk sentiment for copper has slightly recovered, supporting prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,280 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 100,420 with a decrease of 0.85%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,762 with a decrease of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 443,128, an increase of 107,563 from the previous day, and the open interest was 646,503, an increase of 11,941. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 23,537, a decrease of 4,354, and the open interest was 317,000, a decrease of 8,682 [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 145,581, a decrease of 2,612, and LME Copper inventory was 159,400, an increase of 3,100. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 29.38%, a decrease of 1.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper premium was 101.84, an increase of 34.29 from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 180, a decrease of 30 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Trump mentioned Greenland as a US core security interest, reached a "framework" agreement on Greenland with NATO, and might select a new Fed Chair. He also hinted at Hasset's "exit" [1] - **Industry News**: During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, State Grid's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan". A Canadian company's copper and zinc mines achieved production targets, a Chilean copper - gold mine had a labor strike issue, and China's December 2025 copper - related imports had different trends [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-21 所长 早读 地缘风险带来市场不确定性 观点分享： 昨日市场仍出现了非常剧烈的波动，日债暴跌叠加格林兰岛的地缘冲突最终导致欧美股 债汇三杀，vix 指数飙升，贵金属再创历史新高。昨日市场对日债长债出现了非常明显的抛 售，日本提前选举预期、扩张性财政叙事、寿险资金持续减持、以及疲弱的超长期国债拍卖 互相叠加踩踏，最终导致了市场疯狂的对于日本长债的抛售，日本 40 年期长债收益率历史 性突破 4%，20 年、30 年债收益率单日飙升逾 20 个基点，在这种环境下，日债的税率飙升 直接带崩了欧洲和美国，日本作为全球最大美债持有国之一，长端利率失控的风险外溢让全 球市场都出现了巨大的震动，长端美债也遭受了抛售潮，10 年期美债收益率攀升 8 个基点至 4.293%，欧债方面德债和法债也都均出现了长端收益率的上行。债券长端收益率飙升的风险 外溢，也导致了大量股票被抛售，昨晚欧股及美股均出现不同幅度下跌，市场的恐慌情绪叠 加美国对于格林兰岛武力控制威胁和欧洲议会的反击，最终导致了市场的股债汇三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "investment copper bars" has sparked controversy and discussion, despite copper being primarily an industrial metal with limited investment value [1][6]. Group 1: Market Observation - Investment copper bars were found in the Shui Bei market, priced at 180 yuan per kilogram, with a recovery price of approximately 80 yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy [4][6]. - The price of these copper bars fluctuated, reaching up to 250 yuan before settling between 180 and 190 yuan [4]. - The market for copper bars appears to be driven by consumer interest, despite merchants advising against their purchase for investment purposes [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Copper is classified as a non-precious metal, typically priced by the ton rather than the gram, which complicates its positioning as an investment product [3][6]. - The concept of "Giffen goods" and "Veblen goods" is discussed, suggesting that copper bars may not fit neatly into these categories, as they do not serve as essential goods or luxury items [6][7]. - Behavioral economics suggests that consumers may categorize spending on copper bars as "entertainment" rather than serious investment, indicating a trend towards novelty rather than traditional investment logic [7]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Since November, copper prices have been on the rise, with significant increases noted in both domestic and international markets [11][13]. - As of January 20, copper prices reached approximately 10.12 million yuan per ton, with year-to-date increases of about 2.85% [11]. - Recent market dynamics, including potential tariffs and supply concerns, have influenced copper pricing and investment behavior, leading to a notable interest in copper-related stocks [13][14]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The rise of investment copper bars may reflect a broader trend of "consumption downgrade" in precious metal investments, as consumers seek alternative options amid rising prices of gold and silver [6][11]. - The performance of copper mining stocks has been strong, with significant price increases observed in companies like Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining [11][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House has slightly affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price has been somewhat affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation recently, the copper price may be in a temporary shock pattern, with the shock range expected to be between 99,500 yuan/ton and 125,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 19, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 101,030 yuan/ton and closed at 101,180 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,680 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to par against the current - month contract, with an average discount of 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 100,590 to 101,290 yuan/ton. The market trading was light, and the spot discount pattern may continue [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan. The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss the US tariff issue, and the EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [3] - **Mine End**: Australian copper developer Austral Resources will acquire Glencore's Lady Loretta zinc - lead mine in Queensland. Canadian First Quantum Minerals lowered its copper production guidance for the next two years [4] - **Smelting and Import**: LME copper inventory rebounded from a two - month low, SHFE copper inventory continued to rise to a nine - month high, and New York copper inventory reached a new high. In December 2025, China's unforged copper and copper products exports increased by 117.0% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 21.8% year - on - year [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,450 tons to 147,425 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 7,762 tons to 152,655 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5] 3.2 Strategy - The strategy for copper is neutral, with an expected shock range of 99,500 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [1] - The copper trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 100,770 with a daily decline of 1.75%, and the night - session closing price was 103,660 with a night - session increase of 2.87%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 12,809 with a daily decline of 2.59%. Trading volumes and open interests of both Shanghai Copper index and LME Copper 3M decreased compared to the previous day. Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 2,300 to 160,417, while LME Copper inventory increased by 2,450 to 143,575, and the LME Copper注销仓单 ratio decreased by 0.97% to 34.53% [1] - **Spot Data**: Various spot price spreads changed compared to the previous day. For example, the LME Copper premium increased by 23.92 to 61.52, while the Shanghai 1 bright copper price decreased by 400 to 89,500 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairperson has changed. Trump hopes Hassett to continue as a White House advisor, and Hassett says he will defend the Fed's independence if in charge. Trump has postponed the decision to attack Iran and is sending more troops to the Middle East [1] - **Industry**: Codelco's copper production in November decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. The US government may lift the mining ban in northern Minnesota, potentially reviving a major mining project. Codelco submitted a $1.3 - billion plan to extend the life of Radomiro Tomic copper mine to 2058. State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan". Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report offers insights and analyses on various commodities, including their current market conditions, trends, and influencing factors. It provides price data, trading volumes, inventory levels, and relevant news for each commodity, along with trend strength ratings to assist investors in making decisions. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, while the trading volume and open interest also declined. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: There are fluctuations in tariff expectations. The prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed accordingly. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: There was a significant outflow from ETFs, putting pressure on the upside. The prices of platinum futures and related spot markets showed different trends, and the trend strength is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: It follows a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [24]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of Shanghai Copper and LME Copper decreased, and the trading volume and open interest also changed. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of Shanghai Zinc and LME Zinc decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [11]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories limits the price decline. The prices of Shanghai Lead and LME Lead decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [14]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to resource stockpiling. The prices of Shanghai Tin and LME Tin decreased significantly, and the trading volume and open interest also changed. The trend strength is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: It is grinding at a high level. The prices of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [21]. - **Alumina**: It is in a resonant downward trend. The prices of Shanghai Alumina decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of the alloy decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 1 [21]. - **Nickel**: Repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices. The prices of Shanghai Nickel and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is anchored to the contradictions in the ore end, and the increase in nickel - iron prices supports the center of gravity. The prices of stainless - steel futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot purchases have increased, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances. The prices of lithium carbonate futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - selling positions should be established on rallies. The prices of industrial silicon futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of news. The prices of polysilicon futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and caution is advised when chasing the upside. The prices of iron - ore futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: It is in a repeated oscillation. The prices of rebar futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is in a repeated oscillation. The prices of hot - rolled coil futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The raw material cost has weakened, leading to wide - range oscillations. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [47]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand side has tightened slightly, leading to wide - range oscillations. The prices of manganese silicon futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [47]. - **Coke**: Downstream accidents have disturbed the market, leading to high - level oscillations. The prices of coke futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [51]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The prices of coking coal futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [51]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term. The market is affected by factors such as import volume and policy. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [55]. - **Rubber**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of rubber futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [60]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The prices of synthetic rubber futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [63]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot trading has weakened. The prices of LLDPE futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [66]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of PP futures decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [69]. - **Caustic Soda**: The near - month pressure continues. The prices of caustic soda futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trend strength is - 1 [72]. - **Pulp**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of pulp futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is - 1 [78]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [81]. - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillatory operation. The prices of methanol futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [84]. - **Urea**: It is in an oscillatory consolidation. The prices of urea futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [89]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [93]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The prices of soda ash futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [96]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward driving force. The prices of LPG futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [99]. - **Propylene**: After a rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The prices of propylene futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [99]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of PVC futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [107]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the upward trend has paused. The prices of fuel oil futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [110]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a slight rebound at night, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel oil futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [110]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is frequent news about bio - diesel, leading to increased fluctuations in the oil market. The prices of palm oil futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [138]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a lack of positive news about US soybeans, limiting the rebound height. The prices of soybean oil futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [138]. - **Soybean Meal**: With the uncertainty removed, the price may rebound. The prices of soybean meal futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is + 1 [144]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [144]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The prices of corn futures and related spot markets changed slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [147]. - **Sugar**: It is in a low - level consolidation. The prices of sugar futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [151]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for the end of the adjustment. The prices of cotton futures and related spot markets decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The trend strength is 0 [156]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of egg futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [160]. - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the confirmation of peak - season demand. The prices of live - pig futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [163]. - **Peanut**: It is in an oscillatory operation. The prices of peanut futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [168]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in a weak oscillation. The prices of container freight index futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [112]. Paper Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should be closed at an appropriate time. The prices of offset printing paper futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is - 1 [129]. Fibers - **Staple Fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillatory market, and the processing margin is at a low level. The prices of staple - fiber futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [126]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term oscillatory market. The prices of bottle - chip futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [126]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly in a short - term oscillation. The prices of pure benzene futures and related spot markets changed, and the trend strength is 0 [134].

Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending January 16, 2026, ranged from 101,855 to 103,915 CNY/ton, showing a peak and subsequent decline during the week [2][14] - LME inventory changed by 0.63 million tons to 143.6 thousand tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory changed by 3.30 million tons to 213.5 thousand tons [2][14] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) changed by 2.75 million tons to 320.9 thousand tons, and bonded zone inventory changed by 0.12 million tons to 80 thousand tons [2][14] - Comex inventory increased by 20.7 thousand short tons to 538.7 thousand short tons [2][14] Macroeconomic Insights - U.S. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair [3][15] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and the current policy stance is "well-positioned," with a projected economic growth of 2% in the short term [3][15] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and adjustments may be necessary if employment conditions do not improve [3][15] Mining Sector - The SMM import copper concentrate index reported -46.53 USD/dry ton, down 1.12 USD from the previous period [5][16] - In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [5][17] - The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile is experiencing a strike, with labor negotiations at a standstill, affecting production [5][17] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Yangshan copper premium continued to decline, with average bill of lading transaction prices at 41 USD/ton, down 4.2 USD week-on-week [6][16] - As of January 16, 2026, the market is experiencing significant divergence between buyers and sellers, with limited actual transactions due to high copper prices [6][16] Recycling and Scrap Copper - Copper prices fluctuated widely, with a recorded increase of 310 CNY/ton, but Guangdong bright copper prices fell by 100 CNY to 89,500 CNY/ton [7][18] - The recycled copper raw material market remains relatively firm, but downstream enterprises face dual pressures of raw material sourcing difficulties and weak sales [7][18] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%, a week-on-week increase of 9.65 percentage points [8][19] - The operating rate for copper wire and cable enterprises was 55.99%, slightly down by 0.59 percentage points week-on-week [8][19] - The U.S. administration announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors and related products starting January 15, which may impact demand for non-ferrous metals, including copper [8][19] Strategy Outlook - The current outlook for copper is neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate between 99,500 CNY/ton and 125,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [10][20]

Index Performance - HSI closed at 26,924, down 0.3% daily and up 5.0% YTD [2] - HSCEI closed at 9,267, down 0.5% daily and up 4.0% YTD [2] - HSCCI closed at 4,154, up 0.4% daily and up 3.4% YTD [2] - MSCI HK closed at 14,490, up 0.3% daily and up 5.9% YTD [2] - MSCI CHINA closed at 87, down 1.0% daily and up 5.0% YTD [2] - FTSE CHINA A50 closed at 15,340, unchanged daily and up 0.2% YTD [2] - CSI 300 closed at 4,751, up 0.2% daily and up 2.6% YTD [2] - TWSE closed at 30,811, down 0.4% daily and up 6.4% YTD [2] - SENSEX closed at 83,628, down 0.3% daily and down 1.9% YTD [2] - NIKKEI 225 closed at 54,111, down 0.4% daily and up 7.5% YTD [2] - KOSPI closed at 4,798, up 1.6% daily and up 13.8% YTD [2] - ASX 200 closed at 8,821, down 0.1% daily and up 1.7% YTD [2] - DJIA closed at 49,442, up 0.6% daily and up 2.9% YTD [2] - S&P 500 closed at 6,944, up 0.3% daily and up 1.4% YTD [2] - FTSE 100 closed at 10,239, up 0.5% daily and up 3.1% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude closed at US$64/bbl, down 4.1% daily and up 4.8% YTD [3] - Gold closed at US$4,616/oz, down 0.2% daily and up 6.9% YTD [3] - Copper closed at US$13,189/t, up 0.2% daily and up 6.2% YTD [3] - Aluminum closed at US$3,203/t, down 0.5% daily and up 7.9% YTD [3] - Nickel closed at US$18,495/t, up 5.8% daily and up 12.1% YTD [3] - CH domestic steel rebar 25 closed at RMB3,244/t, up 0.1% daily and up 0.1% YTD [3] - CH domestic high speed wire closed at RMB3,700/t, unchanged daily and up 0.3% YTD [3] - CH domestic hot rolled steel closed at RMB3,287/t, down 0.1% daily and up 0.5% YTD [3] - CH domestic cold rolled steel closed at RMB3,800/t, down 0.1% daily and down 0.1% YTD [3] - BDI closed at 1,608, unchanged daily and down 14.3% YTD [3] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - China's Retail Sales YoY in January 19th actual was 1.3%, higher than the consensus of 1.1% [4] - China's Industrial Production YoY in January 19th actual was 4.8%, lower than the consensus of 5.0% [4] - China's Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -2.6%, higher than the consensus of -3.1% [4] - China's Property Investment YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -15.9%, higher than the consensus of -16.5% [4] - China's Residential Property Sales YTD YoY in January 19th actual was -11.2% [4] - China's Surveyed Jobless Rate in January 19th actual was 5.1%, lower than the consensus of 5.2% [4] - China's GDP YoY in January 19th actual was 4.8%, higher than the consensus of 4.5% [4] - China's GDP YTD YoY in January 19th actual was 5.2%, higher than the consensus of 5.0% [4] - China's 1-Year Loan Prime Rate on January 20th remained at 3.0% as expected [4] - China's 5-Year Loan Prime Rate on January 20th remained at 3.5% as expected [4] - US PCE Price Index YoY in January 22nd actual was 2.8% [4] - US Core PCE Price Index YoY in January 22nd actual was 2.8%, in line with the consensus [4] - US Personal Income MoM in January 22nd actual was 0.4%, in line with the consensus [4] - US Personal Spending MoM in January 22nd actual was 0.4%, lower than the consensus of 0.5% [4] - US GDP Annualized QoQ in January 22nd actual was 4.3%, in line with the consensus [4] - US S&P Global US Services PMI in January 23rd actual was 52.5%, lower than the consensus of 52.8% [4] - US U. of Mich. Sentiment in January 23rd actual was 54.0%, in line with the consensus [4] - US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI in January 23rd actual was 51.8%, lower than the consensus of 52.0% [4] - BOJ Target Rate in January 23rd actual was 0.8%, in line with the consensus [4] New Loans and Monetary Policy - In December, new loans reached RMB910bn, down RMB80bn YoY, narrowing the YoY decline from -32.8% in November to -8.1% [6][8] - Corporate short - term, medium - and long - term loans, and bond financing bounced up YoY in December, while household sector credit demand remained sluggish [6][8] - Monetary policymakers announced incremental loosening policies of structural monetary tools and signaled room for further RRR and policy rate cuts [7][8] TSMC - Rating: BUY (TT & ADR). TSMC's 4Q25 EPS was 8% above consensus, and 1Q26 sales/margins are ahead of expectations [9][13] - The 2026 outlook projects sales growing close to 30% YoY with US$52 - 56bn CAPEX [9][13] - Management lifted long - term guidance, targeting 25% / mid - to - high 50s Group / AI sales CAGR (2024 - 29) and a 56% gross margin [10][13] - Target prices are raised to NT$2,420 / US$445 based on 24x 2026 - 27 P/E and a 16% premium [11][14] Li Ning - Rating: HOLD. Li Ning's 4Q25 retail sell - through was down LSD YoY, affected by weak consumer sentiment [15][17] - The full - year 2025 results were in line with guidance, with revenue achieving marginal growth and NPM approaching the upper end of HSD [15][17] - The inflection point may take longer due to athleisure adjustment and Olympic marketing investment lag [16][17] - The current 2025/2026 P/E valuation of 17x/16x appears full [16][17] Uranium Sector - Uranium spot price rose to US$83.5/lb, and major uranium ETFs rallied 22% YTD [18][20] - The White House's proclamation on critical materials may lead to supportive policies for uranium [19][20] - Positive outlook for the uranium sector in 2026, with top pick Kazatomprom, also recommending CGN Mining and Cameco [19][20] CMOC Group - Rating: HOLD. CMOC expects 2025 net profit of RMB20.0 - 20.8bn, up 48 - 54%, and 2025 copper output grew 14% YoY to 741k tonnes [21][23] - 2025 profit was 4 - 8% below forecast, though copper output was 5% above forecast; 2026 copper output target is 6 - 14% above forecast [22][23] - Forecasts and HOLD rating remain unchanged, and the market may react positively to output guidance [22][23]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-15 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-14，沪铜主力合约开于 103780元/吨，收于 104120元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 104350元/吨，收于 103660元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.44%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为平水至升水280元/吨，均价升水140元，较昨日上涨 80元。现货价格区间为103500-104330元/吨。期铜主力合约早盘高开后探低回升，开盘自103150元小幅下行至102900 元后强势反弹，盘中两度触及104850元以上，最终收于104290元。隔月Contango价差在440-330元/吨，当月进口亏 损约1940-2070元/吨。早间平水铜报贴水10元至升水30元，好铜与湿法货源紧张，市场报价稀少。金冠早盘报升水 30元后上调至50元，豫光、中条山等平水成交，JCC、祥光报升水100元。午后金冠因成交活跃升至70元，紫金等 平水维持，金川isa以升水30元成交。今日为2601合约最后交易日，已有持货商对次月报贴水200元。预 ...