当地时间7月30日，美股三大股指表现分化，市场在美联储利率决议和特朗普关税政策的双重影响下震 荡。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌171.71点，跌幅0.38%，收于44461.28点；标普500指数下跌7.94点，跌幅 0.12%，报6362.92点；纳斯达克综合指数则逆势上涨31.38点，涨幅0.15%，收于21129.67点。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比2的投票结果通过了这一决议，米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒两 位理事主张降息，认为通胀受控且劳动力市场可能走弱。这是自1993年以来首次有两位理事对利率决议 投反对票，显示出美联储内部对经济前景的不确定性。 黄金、铜矿概念股大幅下挫 科技板块呈现分化，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.29%，英伟达涨超2%，苹果则跌逾1%。盘后市场因 业绩利好异动，Meta因第三季度营收展望超预期（475亿至505亿美元，中值高于预期），盘后涨超 12%；微软因云业务增长强劲（Azure第四财季销售额增39%）及AI投入加码，盘后涨超8%。 黄金与铜矿概念股成为重灾区：美国黄金跌超7%，伊格尔矿业、纽蒙特矿业等黄金股全线收跌；铜矿 板块更显颓势，自由港麦克莫兰跌近10%，近五 ...

美国梦议院通过稳定币相关法案目将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关税推升商品价格数美国6月消费端通胀6PI年率有所升高 | 初清失业金人数为21.7万低于预期和前值，但因特朗普政府持续施压绳威尔实施降息，使美联储9月降息极率有所升高但12月降息概率有所下降。 | | | --- | --- | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明锡事故而暂停运营，盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | | (Anglo Asian Minine) 旗下Denirli)阿萨持成生产使2年铜精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后铜精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨，俄罗斯Mornickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34. 3-35. 5万吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源IIIo旗 | | | 下Laa Banbas（2025年预计生产量38万金属吨）和Budbard旗下Constancia（2025年预计生产量6-9.7万金属吨）因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly drafted the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)" to address "involution - style" competition, with clear definitions of dumping, expanded scope, and new regulations on data - related price behavior [8]. - For the black sector, in the short - term (1 - 3 weeks), steel is in high - level oscillation, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), black commodities face correction pressure; in the long - term (1 - 3 quarters), the center of black commodities will rise again [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. "Today's Discovery" - The revised "Price Law" aims to address "involution - style" competition, with clearer rules on low - price dumping, expanded scope to include services, and new regulations on operators' use of data and algorithms [8]. 2. "Recommended by the Director" - **Black Sector**: - Short - term: Steel oscillates at a high level, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong. The logic is that coking coal supply has a production - cut expectation, policy stimulus is continuous, and there is a shortage of spot liquidity. Steel mills have a demand to replenish coking coal inventory. Iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and its price is over - valued [9][10]. - Medium - term: Black commodities face correction pressure due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" policy and high valuations, along with increased supply and potential spot liquidity surpluses [10]. - Long - term: The center of black commodities will rise as real estate destocking and new construction stabilize, and global manufacturing inventory replenishment boosts demand [10]. - Strategies: Gradually take profit on the 10 - 01 reverse spread of steel; hold the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore; pay attention to opportunities to narrow the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. 3. "Commodity Research Morning Report" - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates downward, and silver breaks through and rises. Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [14][19][21]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper lacks a clear driver and oscillates. Copper trend intensity is 0 [14][23][25]. - Zinc's price weakens. Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14][26][28]. - Lead's price rebound is restricted by high domestic inventory. Lead trend intensity is 0 [14][29][30]. - Tin's price is affected by floods in Wa State. Tin trend intensity is - 1 [14][32][35]. - Aluminum oscillates in the short - term, alumina's price strengthens, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [14][37][39]. - Nickel is boosted by macro - sentiment but restricted by reality; stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin and determined by fundamentals in terms of elasticity. Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [14][40][44]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate lithium may be strong in the short - term due to increased supply - side disturbances. Carbonate lithium trend intensity is 1 [14][45][47]. - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market is resilient; polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances. Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [14][49][51]. - Iron ore is supported by macro - expectations and oscillates strongly. Iron ore trend intensity is 1 [14][52][53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil oscillate widely. Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0 [14][55][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillate widely due to rising overseas ore quotes. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0 [14][59][61]. - Coke's third - round price increase is implemented, and it oscillates strongly; coking coal is also strong due to supply - policy constraints. Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 1 [14][63][65]. - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [14][67][70]. - Logs oscillate repeatedly [71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - **Soybean Oil**: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Corn**: Expected to move sideways. - **Sugar**: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - **Egg**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - **Live Pig**: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - **Peanut**: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - **Log**: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].

铜周报 鸽派立场渐浓，铜价止跌反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因满足COMEX关税截止日期前的套 利窗口正在关闭致使部分货源回流LME，造成美铜溢价估 值向下修复，6月美国CPI温和上行，关税影响并未完全显 现，目前美联储鹰鸽两派分歧加剧，鹰派官员认为需要紧 缩的货币政策来遏制通胀升温的势头，而仍有部分官员认 为今年仍应降息两次，虽然全球贸易局势干扰加剧，但降 息预期的升温令资本市场风险偏好回升。基本面来看，海 外矿端紧缺事实不变，LME库存持续回升，海外精铜供应 逐渐趋松，主流矿企二季报已增产为主，国内社会库存小 幅增加，近月B结构转向平水。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 整体来看，因美联储内部鹰鸽两派分歧较大令9月降息扑 朔迷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impending 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the U.S. government is causing significant anxiety in the market, particularly among major copper producers and industrial users [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025, as stated by President Trump [1]. - Maximo Pacheco, chairman of Chile's state copper company, warns that this tariff is creating market uncertainty [1][3]. - There is ambiguity regarding whether the tariff applies to refined copper, semi-finished products, or copper ore, leading to confusion among mining companies and industrial users [3]. Group 2: Industry Concerns and Economic Impact - Executives express concern over the tariff's implications, with potential negative effects on key U.S. industries such as electric vehicles, data centers, and defense [3]. - Analysts warn that the tariff could lead to significant cost increases across various sectors, as copper is widely used in electronics, automotive, construction, and data centers [4]. - The U.S. consumes nearly half of its copper from imports, primarily from Chile, making the economy vulnerable to tariff-induced cost pressures [4].

Core Insights - Peru's copper production in May decreased by 4.6% year-on-year, totaling 220,849 metric tons [1] Industry Summary - The decline in copper production may indicate potential challenges in the mining sector, affecting supply dynamics and pricing in the global market [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Suspended [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the expansion of the Comex - LME spread under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to the decline of copper prices in non - US markets. The domestic copper price is temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory has increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude for now [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,960 yuan/ton and closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,950 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 95 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 77,970 - 78,150 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, but the regional price difference may widen [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: The US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Trump showed a draft letter to fire the Fed Chairman Powell. Traders believe the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 50%. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 - trillion - dollar) budget plan. China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year [3]. - Mine end: On July 16, Antofagasta's Q2 2025 copper production was 160,100 tons, up 3% quarter - on - quarter, and gold production was 48,300 ounces, up 13% quarter - on - quarter [4]. - Smelting and import: In May 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3775 million tons, with a supply surplus of 84,200 tons. Freeport Indonesia expects 2025 copper concentrate production to be 2.964 million tons, lower than the previous forecast [5]. - Consumption: On July 16, the copper rod order volume of 31 domestic copper rod producers and 6 traders was 14,000 tons, down 9.38% from the previous day [6]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 850 tons to 121,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 109 tons to 50,242 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,600 tons [6]. 2. Strategy - Copper: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait and see for now [7]. - Arbitrage: Suspend operations [7]. - Options: Suspend operations [7]. 3. Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profitability, and price ratios over different time periods (July 17, 2025; July 16, 2025; July 10, 2025; June 17, 2025) [26][27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Suspended [6] Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a volatile downward trend, mainly due to the widening spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in non-US market copper prices. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and domestic social inventories have increased. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,040 yuan/ton and closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was stable. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 78,370 - 78,540 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The market supply was sufficient, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery was average. It is expected that today's quotes will remain firm [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia-Ukraine conflict agreement is not reached within 50 days, and also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Brazil will announce counter - tariff measures against the US, and the EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. The European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week [3]. - **Mine End**: Rio Tinto is optimistic about the US government's push for domestic key mineral production and hopes to increase investment in US copper mining. Mercuria Energy Group and a Zambian state - owned company will ship copper ore for the first time. In Peru, protests by informal miners may affect the production of two major copper mines [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: As of the week of July 8, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds continued to increase to 39,604 lots. The US tariff policy on imported copper led to a sharp rise in US copper prices and increased fund bulls' confidence [3]. - **Consumption**: - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The operating rate last week rebounded to 67%, but was still lower than expected. It is expected to rise to 74.57% next week, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected [4]. - **Copper Cable Industry**: The operating rate reached 71.52%, an unexpected rebound. However, due to terminal capital pressure, it is expected to fall to 70.57% next week [4][5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 109,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 11,072 tons to 34,379 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 14 was 14.76 million tons, changing by 0.39 million tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to take a neutral stance and wait - and - see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to suspend operations [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Supply - side policy uncertainties are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment remains cautious before the US tariff is implemented. Demand is dominated by the off - season, with only the new energy sector providing some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 11, the SHFE main copper contract rose slightly by 50 yuan to 78,470 yuan/ton. Spot discounts continued to widen, with the premiums of premium copper and flat - water copper dropping to 0 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount was 0.95 dollars/ton, increasing the pressure on near - term spot. LME copper inventories surged by 1,578 tons to 23,307 tons, a recent high, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, highlighting inventory pressure. Although the LME copper price rebounded slightly to 9,682 dollars, trading volume and open interest both contracted, indicating a decline in market activity [2] 2. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: Supply from major mines in Chile and around the world shows significant differentiation. The US plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper increases the uncertainty of Chile's exports. Overall, the supply side is marginally looser, but policy risks are rising [3] - **Demand Side**: The off - season characteristics are significant, and structural differentiation is intensifying. The growth of copper consumption in the photovoltaic industry is expected to slow down after the over - demand in the first half of the year. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which increased by over 40% year - on - year, still support copper prices. Downstream industries generally maintain just - in - time procurement [3] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories continue to accumulate. LME inventories increased by 1,971 tons compared to July 7, and SHFE and COMEX inventories also rose, reflecting a loose supply - demand pattern in the off - season [3] 3. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. Policy uncertainties on the supply side are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment is cautious before the US tariff is implemented. The off - season dominates demand, and only the new energy sector provides some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On July 11, 2025, the price of SMM 1 copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%) from the previous day. The SHFE price was 78,470 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.06%). The LME price was 9,663 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars (- 0.20%) [6] - **Inventory Changes**: LME inventories increased by 1,578 tons (7.26%) to 23,307 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 625 tons (0.58%) to 108,725 tons, and COMEX inventories increased by 3,061 short tons (1.32%) to 234,204 short tons [6] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 11, Antofagasta's CEO saw opportunities in US copper projects under the 50% tariff. Chile's mining minister said the government had no exact information on tariff implementation [7] - On July 11, data showed that Codelco's copper production in May increased by about 16.5% year - on - year to 13.01 tons, and BHP's Escondida mine production surged by about 24.4% to 13.2 tons, while Collahuasi's production decreased by 16.9% to 38,400 tons [7] - On July 11, it was reported that on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. Chile, supplying about 70% of US copper imports in 2024, is at the center of this trade storm [8] - On July 11, Canadian copper producer Hudbay Minerals temporarily stopped Snow Lake's operations due to wildfires [8] - In Q2 2025, Kamoa - Kakula's Phase I, II, and III concentrators processed 362 tons of ore, producing 11.2 tons of copper, a 11% year - on - year increase. The western area of the Kakula mine restarted mining in early June, and by mid - June, the mining capacity had reached 30 tons per month [9] 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [10][12][16]