Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a bullish outlook on copper prices due to supply shortages at the mining level affecting the smelting sector, with expectations for continued price increases in the future [4]. Supply and Demand - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 87,430 CNY/ton, up 2.07% from November 21, while LME copper closed at 11,176 USD/ton, up 3.69% [4]. - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating tightening supply [4]. - Cable companies have seen a continuous recovery in operating rates for four weeks, with Q4 expected to benefit from seasonal demand [4]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2% [5]. - As of November 28, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 723,000 tons, up 2.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 669,000 tons as of November 24, 2025, up 6.8% from November 17 [5]. Supply - In October, copper scrap imports increased by 7% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,544 CNY/ton as of November 28, 2025, up 869 CNY/ton from November 21 [6]. Smelting - In October 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. - The current TC spot price is -42.70 USD/ton, down 0.4 USD/ton from November 21, marking the lowest level since September 2007 [7]. - In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, while exports surged by 542% [7]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rates to 66.89%, up 1.21 percentage points week-on-week [8]. - Home air conditioner production is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year in December 2025, but is projected to increase by 14% in January 2026 [8]. - Brass rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had an operating rate of 43.5% in October 2025, down 1.6 percentage points month-on-month and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 13.4% week-on-week, reaching 218,000 lots [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 43,000 lots as of October 14, 2025, up 9.1% week-on-week [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The consensus among CSPT member companies to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026 indicates a significant tightening in copper supply, which is expected to drive copper prices to new highs [4][1]. - The disruptions in copper mining in 2025, including production guidance reductions from major mines, are likely to exacerbate the supply constraints [2]. - The current low processing fees (TC) for copper smelting, coupled with reliance on by-product revenues, poses profitability challenges for smelting companies [3]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity - CSPT members account for approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of over 10 million tons per year [1]. Mining Disruptions - Significant production guidance reductions from various mines in 2025, totaling a decrease of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively, represent about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper mine production [2][19]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC) for copper smelting has reached historical lows, with spot prices at -43 USD/ton and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to depend on by-product revenues for profitability [3][11]. Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, with LME copper at 159,000 tons and COMEX at 419,000 tons, but the distribution is uneven, leading to potential tightness outside the U.S. [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to monitor Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4].

宏微观共振下铜价突破上行 沪铜周度报告·2025年12月01日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 ➢ 周度综述（11.24-11.28） ➢ 本页数据为2025.11.24-2025.11.28日期内周度数据对比 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨） | -42.32 | -42.75 | -0.43 | -1.02% | 本周铜精矿现货成交较为冷清，现货TC小幅下行，市场重点仍聚焦与长单谈判。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 2 ...

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to experience an overall upward trend in prices in 2025, with the highest price reaching 88,700 yuan/ton, influenced by multiple factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical issues, and supply-demand disturbances. Looking ahead to 2026, a widening supply-demand gap and price increases are anticipated due to sustained tight supply, optimized demand structure, and loose liquidity, highlighting the investment value of the copper industry [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Global copper mine supply is under long-term pressure, with a growth rate of only 1.77% expected in 2024, the lowest in recent years, due to declining ore grades, insufficient new discoveries, and lengthy development cycles of up to 17 years [1]. - In 2025, supply disruptions increased significantly, with incidents such as the Grasberg mine disaster in Indonesia, power outages in Chile, and mechanical failures leading to a year-on-year decrease of 134,000 tons in global copper mine output [1][2]. - The concentration of global copper production is high, with the top ten copper mines accounting for 23.96% of total output, making the supply chain vulnerable to disruptions from single mine shutdowns [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - Demand characteristics show a stable traditional demand and a high growth in new demand, with China accounting for 58% of global copper demand, supported by manufacturing and grid investments. The re-industrialization in the U.S. and India's development further opens up demand space [2]. - New energy sectors, including electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 7.83% from 2026 to 2030, significantly increasing copper consumption compared to traditional sectors [2]. - AI-related demand is surging, with AI servers using several times more copper than traditional servers, and the expected increase in copper demand from AI applications could reach 764,800 tons by 2030 [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will release liquidity, providing financial support for copper prices. Despite uncertainties in the rate cut path, copper is expected to perform well as a risk asset amid expectations of an economic soft landing [2]. - Improved Sino-U.S. relations are expected to reduce market uncertainties and lessen short-term pressure on copper prices [2]. Price Outlook - The global copper market is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap in 2026, with LME copper prices expected to reach $13,000/ton and Shanghai copper prices potentially exceeding 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear upward trend in copper prices in the long term [2]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper are expected to benefit significantly from the industry's favorable cycle due to their scale advantages and potential for capacity growth [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The copper mining output interference rate is increasing, leading to a long-term supply shortage due to insufficient exploration spending. The global copper supply is expected to decrease in the coming years, with significant reductions in output from major projects like Grasberg, Kakula, and Batu Hijau [2][4] - Demand for copper is structurally improving due to sustained investments in AI and renewable energy. Traditional demand remains stable, while new demand from AI and energy revolutions is expected to grow significantly, increasing its share of overall demand from 16% in 2023 to 22% by 2030 [2][37] - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive copper prices higher, with projections of LME copper prices reaching $13,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices exceeding ¥100,000 per ton in 2026 [2][30] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global copper mining supply is expected to decline, with a projected output of 2.35 million tons in 2025, down 13.4 million tons from 2024. Recovery in production from major mines is anticipated in 2026-2027, contributing to a gradual increase in supply [23][36] - The copper supply is highly concentrated, with the top 16 copper producers accounting for 58.87% of global output. Any production halts at these major mines could significantly impact supply [14][30] - The interference rate in copper mining supply is high, with multiple incidents in 2025 leading to production downgrades. This trend is expected to continue, affecting the recovery of production in the coming years [16][22] Price Trends - Copper prices have shown an overall upward trend since 2025, influenced by various factors including supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. The highest price reached was ¥88,700 per ton in Q4 2025 [8][24] - The TC price for copper concentrate has been declining, reaching a historical low of $42.21 per ton by mid-November 2025, which has put pressure on the smelting sector [26][30] New Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is being driven by the growth of AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sectors. The copper consumption in electric vehicles is 2-3 times higher than in traditional vehicles, and significant copper is required for solar and wind energy installations [44][45] - AI data centers are expected to significantly increase copper demand due to their high power requirements and the need for extensive wiring and cooling systems [49][53] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are a key focus, with potential rate cuts expected to influence copper prices positively. The market is currently assessing the timing and impact of these cuts on economic conditions [56][62] - Liquidity tightening has been affecting copper prices, but there are expectations for relief in December 2025 as the Fed may halt its balance sheet reduction [62][63]

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Core Insights - The prices of precious metals, particularly copper, have surged significantly, attracting global attention, with LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper contracts reaching historical highs [1] - The rising costs of copper raw materials have led to substantial pressure on downstream industries, with a reported 18% reduction in production among small and medium enterprises in the copper supply chain [2] - The copper industry is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as geopolitical events and currency fluctuations, alongside traditional demand stagnation [5][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs, with significant volatility impacting different segments of the industry [3] - The supply side is under pressure, with global copper mine supply growth at only 1.6%, while smelting capacity is expanding rapidly, leading to a potential supply shortage [6] - The demand for copper is being driven by new applications in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to offset declines in traditional demand from construction and manufacturing [5][7] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Many copper smelting plants are facing operational challenges due to depleting raw material inventories and declining by-product prices, leading to increased production cuts [2][4] - The high volatility in copper prices is causing significant operational risks for midstream companies, with many opting to reduce inventory levels and even halt production temporarily [4] - The transition towards aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, which may impact long-term copper demand [2][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish on copper prices in the medium to long term, driven by structural supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies [7][8] - The copper market is expected to experience a short-term balance but may face a structural shortage by 2026, with prices potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton [7] - The copper industry is transitioning towards higher quality production and efficiency, moving away from previous expansion strategies, which may lead to increased competitiveness and innovation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market will likely maintain high - level oscillations, with the SHFE main contract in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton [2]. Tin - In the short term, although macro fluctuations are large, considering the limited supply recovery this year and the strong fundamentals, a bullish stance on tin price corrections is maintained. The focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [4]. Zinc - The zinc market is likely to oscillate. The price has limited downward space in the short term, but the fundamentals also provide limited impetus for continuous upward movement. The main contract reference range is 22200 - 22800 [6]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87800, with attention on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and other macro drivers [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 12200 - 12600. The focus is on steel - mill production cuts and ferronickel prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market may first decline and then oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market is expected to have low - level oscillations, with the main price fluctuation range likely between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. For trading strategies, try to go long around 50,000 on the futures side; hold/sell put options on the options side, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 21380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss was 1798 yuan/ton, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.63 [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a 2.39% increase; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a 3.52% increase [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price dropped to 21350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 4.48% [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a 2.42% decrease; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a 1.06% increase [2]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price dropped to 291300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import loss was 16328.60 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, a 15.13% decrease. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, a 53.09% increase [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The import loss was 4165 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a 2.85% increase; imports were 1.88 million tons, a 16.94% decrease [6]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference was 2675 yuan/ton, a 12.75% decrease [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a 2.62% decrease; imports were 28.21 million tons, a 15.61% decrease [8]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 116700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a 0.84% increase; imports were 38164 tons, a 124.36% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price dropped to 891 yuan/nickel point, a 0.39% decrease [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a 0.38% increase; exports were 35.81 million tons, a 14.43% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 92300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price dropped to 6807 dollars/ton, a 2.51% decrease [15]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a 5.73% increase; demand was 126961 tons, an 8.70% increase [15]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained at 9550 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 monthly spread increased by 200% [17]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a 7.46% increase; exports were 4.51 million tons, a 35.82% decrease [17]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The N - type re - feedstock average price remained at 52300 yuan/ton. The main contract price rose to 53360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% [18]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production was 2.71 million tons, a 1.12% increase; monthly production was 13.40 million tons, a 3.08% increase [18].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]