Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions. Gold is supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, expected Fed rate - cuts, geopolitical situations, and long - term strategic allocation needs. Silver benefits from rate - cuts, strong demand, and limited supply growth [1]. - Copper recommends holding long positions, with some profit - taking. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][8]. - Zinc is expected to face pressure in its rebound. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][12]. - Lead, tin, and nickel are expected to face pressure in their rebounds, affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance, supply - demand imbalances, and inventory changes [1]. - Aluminum is expected to be relatively strong, with stable overseas bauxite supply, inventory reduction, and increased downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a rebound, with fundamental pressure but policy support [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a high - level shock, with improved fundamentals and limited upward drivers in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a rebound, with increasing production but also increasing inventory reduction, indicating strong terminal demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold has reached a new all - time high, and the market has priced in at least three rate - cuts [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US economic data supports rate - cuts. The retail sales growth may slow down. The market expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points, and a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have escalated. In the short - term, geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, gold may have a long - term bull market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for gold and silver, but beware of "selling on the news" trading. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has risen and then fallen. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The processing fee TC is still in deep inversion. The production of electrolytic copper may decrease in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and the annual supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market has fully priced in the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, with some profit - taking. Beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The recommended trading ranges are [79,500, 82,500] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has faced pressure and declined, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic zinc concentrate TC has decreased, and SMM's imported zinc concentrate index has increased. In September, domestic smelter maintenance has increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased, while overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed rate - cut is almost certain. London zinc is approaching the 3,000 - dollar level, while domestic zinc ingot inventory increase has dragged down Shanghai zinc. In the long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. The recommended trading ranges are [22,000, 22,500] for Shanghai zinc and [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has stabilized at a low level [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. In September, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. For alumina, the supply of Guinea's bauxite is abundant, but the arrival volume in September may be affected by the rainy season. The domestic alumina operating rate has increased, and the supply pressure has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price has faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel has rebounded [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. The supply of refined nickel in China has a large surplus pressure, and the domestic pure nickel social inventory has continued to increase slightly. For stainless steel, the downstream consumption peak - season expectation still exists. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decrease, and the production volume in September is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel with light positions in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, with the late - session gain falling below 2% [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to release incremental production, with weekly production and operating rate at historical highs. The terminal demand peak - season is obvious, with high - level energy storage demand and a warming power battery market. The downstream material factory's production schedule has continued to increase, and the inventory has been replenished for 10 consecutive weeks. The total inventory reduction of lithium carbonate production has increased, and the smelter inventory is below the median level, providing support for the price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to whether it can stand firm on the 60 - day moving average [72,500 - 74,500] [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term trading liquidity is loose, and the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate upward, reaching 81,500 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is almost certain, but the continuous boost to copper prices is limited, and the "stagflation - like" environment restricts the scope of interest rate cuts. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, with medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions providing bottom support. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price showed a low - level oscillating trend. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand pull is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the short - term price will oscillate around the peak - season expectation and actual consumption realization, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of the price rising and then falling if demand improvement is less than expected [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated at a high level. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, and the demand has a slight recovery. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of improved interest rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, but Shanghai zinc is relatively weak. The supply is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market is generally strong. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the interest rate cut rhythm remains unchanged, and domestic policies are favorable. Industrially, the stainless steel demand is weak, while the price of nickel sulfate is rising. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated upward. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and domestic policies are positive. The supply pressure exists, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Policy windows boost the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually clear, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract price center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1.89% to 54% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The regenerated aluminum alloy operating rate decreased by 0.35% to 53.41% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing operating rate increased by 5.98% to 56.06% [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel product was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 478,100 tons [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 72,450 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as economic indicators, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation. Spot copper rose to 80,940 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong on the last trading day being 80 and 20 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap price difference widened to 2,000 yuan. SMM copper social inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 154,200 tons over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium fluctuations of the call option with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected today, with the spot discount widening in various regions. The downstream start - up continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with oversupply and falling prices [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 50,500 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $30.17 per ton. London zinc rebounded to the high - level range at the beginning of the year. Shanghai zinc is still dragged down by weak fundamentals and fluctuates narrowly above 22,000 yuan. The import loss of zinc compared to the spot exceeds 3,300 yuan per ton, and the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening [3] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a low level. The short - covering retreat was triggered by the speculation of interest - rate cut expectations. The upstream price support of nickel has rebounded slightly, and the price level of the nickel industry chain has been pushed up. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons [6] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a positive line oscillation, with the spot tin price dropping to 273,300 yuan. Overseas, although the positions are still relatively concentrated, the position - volume risk has decreased. Domestic leading production capacity is under maintenance. Technically, there is resistance at 275,000 yuan for the domestic market and $35,000 for the overseas market. It is not recommended to chase long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. The price of lithium carbonate has a low - level support, and a short - term bullish view is taken [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by coal - related news, reaching 9,000 yuan per ton during the day and then falling back to close at 8,800 yuan per ton. In September, the supply - side output is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, while the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are expected to have a slight decline in output. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile operation [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closed slightly down at 53,500 yuan per ton. Only a few enterprises have implemented production cuts, and the reduction range is limited. The main contract of polysilicon can be expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan per ton [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The macro situation indicates that a September interest rate cut is certain, but the long - term impact on copper prices is limited. The fundamental situation shows "weak reality + stable expectations". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, and prices will at least remain volatile. The main reference range is 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate around the peak - season expectations and actual consumption this week, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures followed the rise of aluminum prices last week. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short - term, prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is strengthening. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - In the short - term, there is limited unilateral driving force. It is expected that the market will adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 80,755 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 264.49 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; in July, the import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.77% to 21,020 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 134.8 yuan/ton to - 1374 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM East China ADC12 price increased by 0.48% to 21,050 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 6.98% to 1,432 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.23% to 22,230 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 135.84 yuan/ton to - 2805 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%; in July, the import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% to 27.00 US dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.15% to 122,850 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; the import volume was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Yuantong Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% to 450 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%; the import volume was 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.55% to 72,450 yuan/ton; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.24% to 842 US dollars/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%; the total inventory was 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - **Important News**: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - **Important News**: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - **Important News**: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - **Important News**: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - **Important News**: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - **Important News**: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - **Important News**: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided. - **Important News**: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - **Important News**: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals released on September 15, 2025, covering multiple non - ferrous metal varieties including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall macro - environment shows that the market has increased expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year due to factors such as the US CPI in August and weak non - farm payroll data. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper supply is tight, while alumina is in an oversupply situation. [8] Group 4: Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 1,572 lots to 520,900 lots. The spot market showed weakening procurement sentiment, with different regions having different changes in spot premiums. [2] Key Information - As of September 15, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 tons to 15.42 tons. The planned merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources may create the world's largest copper mine in the early 2030s. China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The average export benchmark price of copper concentrate in Indonesia in the second half of September increased by 2.29% compared to the first half. [3][4][5] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, copper supply is tight due to production accidents and policies, and consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. [8] Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider laying out long positions after a pull - back and pay attention to the support level of $10,000/ton. Hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions and stay on the sidelines for options. [8] Group 5: Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2601 contract rose by 13 yuan to 2,935 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [10] Key Information - India postponed the approval of an alumina project, which may delay the second - phase project of a factory. The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased, and the industry average profit increased. The national alumina production capacity and inventory situation changed. [11][12][14] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply and demand remain in an oversupply situation, with a weak fundamental trend, but beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices. [15] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading is expected to continue the weak operation pattern. Stay on the sidelines for both arbitrage and options trading. [16][17] Group 6: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose by 5 yuan to 21,025 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [19] Key Information - From January to August, real estate development data showed a decline. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments. [19][21] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts, and overseas and domestic fundamentals support the price. Although there may be short - term inventory fluctuations, the annual supply - demand shortage pattern remains. [22] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and continue to be bullish on pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [23][24] Group 7: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 25 to 20,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions increased. [26] Key Information - The policy of standardizing investment promotion affects the recycled aluminum industry, with some regions having more obvious impacts. The weighted average full cost of the ADC12 industry increased, and the theoretical profit expanded. The exchange will start the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures. [26][29][30] Logic Analysis - The policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and downstream demand is increasing. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and strong. [31] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Follow the upward trend of aluminum prices, and be bullish after pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [32][33] Group 8: Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.13% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1,484 lots to 221,800 lots. The spot market had stable quotes and weak downstream demand. [35] Key Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and Peru's zinc concentrate production in July 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. [36] Logic Analysis - In September, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and consumption is weak. Overseas, LME inventory is decreasing, which supports the LME zinc price. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may rise. [39] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, and consider laying out short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [40] Group 9: Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2510 rose 1.15% to 17,160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 3,021 lots to 91,400 lots. The spot market had different trading situations. [42] Key Information - Domestic lead ingot inventory increased, and the price of imported lead ore was at a loss. Some domestic smelters may advance winter storage plans. [43][44] Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelters are reducing production due to losses, and downstream pre - holiday stocking may support prices. However, if the lead ingot import window opens, prices may fall. [45] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The Shanghai lead price is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of price drops after the inflow of imported lead ingots. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [47] Group 10: Nickel Market Review - The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2510 rose 1,390 to 122,580 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 690 lots. Spot premiums changed slightly. [49] Key Information - The land seizure incident in Indonesia had no major impact on nickel production. Vale Indonesia is in talks for three nickel smelter projects, and Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is ramping up. [50] Logic Analysis - The market is concerned about the interest rate cut amplitude. Although it is the peak demand season, supply also increases, and LME inventory is rising, putting pressure on prices. [51] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [53] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2511 contract rose 155 to 13,070 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,671 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given. [55] Key Information - Many stainless steel enterprises are carrying out low - carbon emission transformation, and global green trade rules are being reconstructed. [56] Logic Analysis - Macro - factors and the rise in nickel prices support stainless steel prices. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [56] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [57][58] Group 12: Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan/ton or 0.41%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the terminal consumption situation was different in different industries. [60] Key Information - China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. Indonesia's refined tin export volume in August decreased by 49% year - on - year. [61][62] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Tin ore supply is tight, and demand may be postponed. LME and domestic inventories are increasing. [63] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the increase in inventory restricts the upward space. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [64] Group 13: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 0.86% to 8,800 yuan/ton after an intraday high - low fluctuation. Spot prices in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable. [65][66] Key Information - An important article will be published emphasizing the construction of a unified national market. The production and inventory data of industrial silicon and its downstream products are given. [67][69] Logic Analysis - As leading manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon will change from tight balance to slight surplus. Although the price may pull back, the cost increase and low inventory will limit the decline. [69] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Buy on pull - backs. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options after a pull - back. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11 and 12 contracts. [70] Group 14: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices had a certain range. [71] Key Information - The same important article about the unified national market construction is mentioned. The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are short - term multi - empty factors. [72] Logic Analysis - The long - term price of polysilicon is likely to rise, but in the short term, there are factors such as the cancellation of 11 - contract warehouse receipts that may cause a deep pull - back. [74] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Fluctuate in the short term and buy on pull - backs in the medium - to - long term. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Hold sold out - of - the - money put options. [75] Group 15: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract rose 1,640 to 72,680 yuan/ton, the index reduced positions by 652 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 338 to 38,963 tons. Spot prices remained stable. [76] Key Information - The Ministry of Commerce promotes automobile consumption, and Zijin Mining's lithium project in Argentina is put into production. The Brazilian federal prosecutor's office requires the review of lithium mining licenses. [77][78] Logic Analysis - The overall atmosphere is optimistic with the Fed's possible interest rate cut. Although demand is strong, long - term supply is also increasing, and prices need to fluctuate and consolidate. [81] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [82][83] Group 16: Price and Related Data - Multiple tables show the daily data of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, industry profits, and inventory data from September 9 to September 15, 2025, as well as the comparison with the previous weekend and the end of the previous month. [85][86][87] Group 17: Charts - There are many charts showing the historical trends of various indicators of non - ferrous metals such as spot premiums, term structures, import and export profits, and inventory, providing visual references for price analysis. [96][100][104]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The fundamentals of gold remain strong. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut weakens the US dollar, boosts the demand for gold from non - US currency holders. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases, geopolitical risks, the long - term de - dollarization trend, and policy - game uncertainties support the upward movement of gold prices. The exchange - rate factor amplifies the domestic increase, and SHFE gold performs better than international gold [3]. - Copper: In the next week, copper prices may remain at 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease as investors have consistent expectations for the Fed's September and October interest - rate decisions. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with the tight supply problem remaining unresolved in the short term and demand remaining weak. Overall, copper prices will be in a volatile state [18]. - Aluminum: Last week, SHFE aluminum prices rose significantly, mainly due to the strengthening expectation of interest - rate cuts and the improvement of fundamentals. However, at high prices, the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak, and it is uncertain whether the inventory - reduction inflection point has arrived. In the future, inventory will be an important factor determining aluminum prices. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus, and its price may be weak in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy may be volatile and strong, and the subsequent focus is on the supply of scrap aluminum [37][38][39]. - Zinc: The supply of zinc is in a surplus state. The price advantage of domestic zinc ore is obvious, and overseas zinc ore is in a loose situation. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the LME inventory is continuously decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will be volatile [64]. - Nickel: The takeover of some nickel mines in Indonesia by the forestry working group has caused concerns about supply. The benchmark price of nickel ore in September has declined, but the premium is firm. The supply of nickel salt is tight, and the price of nickel iron is stable and strong. Stainless steel has limited downward space due to cost support, but high - price transactions are weak [80]. - Tin: The impact of monetary policy on tin prices may decrease. The short - term pattern of tight supply in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on prices. Tin prices may continue to fluctuate [95]. - Lithium Carbonate: Policy support is expected to extend the peak - season cycle of the new - energy industry to the end of the year. If the downstream material enterprises experience a prosperous market after the "National Day" holiday, the current restocking demand may last until the end of the year. The downside space of lithium - carbonate spot prices is limited [106]. - Silicon: The market of industrial silicon is characterized by "strong expectation and weak reality". The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may be volatile and weak in the short term. The polysilicon market is under pressure, with increasing supply and inventory, but the policy expectation is strong, and it may be in a state of shock adjustment [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price - influencing factors: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and de - dollarization trend support gold prices [3]. - Market performance: SHFE gold performs better than international gold due to exchange - rate factors [3]. Copper - Price forecast: Remain at 81,000 yuan per ton in the next week, with the impact of monetary policy decreasing and a volatile trend [18]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data are presented in detail, showing the current supply - demand situation and price trends [18][23][33]. Aluminum - Aluminum: Rose last week, but downstream acceptance is weak at high prices, and inventory is a key factor for future price trends [37]. - Alumina: In a supply - surplus state, with prices likely to be weak in the short term [38]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: May be volatile and strong, with scrap - aluminum supply being the focus [39]. Zinc - Supply - demand situation: Supply is in surplus, and demand for the peak season is generally expected. The LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [64]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data, and basis data are provided [65][71][76]. Nickel - Supply - demand situation: The takeover of mines in Indonesia causes supply concerns. Nickel - ore prices are affected by nickel - price adjustments, and the supply of nickel salt is tight. Nickel - iron prices are stable and strong, and stainless - steel transactions are weak at high prices [80]. - Market data: Futures prices, inventory data, and downstream - profit data are presented [81][86][90]. Tin - Price forecast: May continue to fluctuate as the impact of monetary policy decreases and the supply is tight in the short term [95]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data, and processing - fee data are shown [96][100][102]. Lithium Carbonate - Policy impact: Policy support is expected to extend the peak - season cycle, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [106]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data are provided [107][109][113]. Silicon - Industrial Silicon: The market is characterized by "strong expectation and weak reality", with increasing supply and accumulating inventory, and prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [115]. - Polysilicon: Under pressure with increasing supply and inventory, but with strong policy expectations, and may be in a state of shock adjustment [115]. - Market data: Spot and futures prices, production, inventory, and price - difference data are presented [116][117][131].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, the continuous improvement of interest - rate cut expectations boosts copper prices, but the long - term impact is limited. The "stagflation - like" environment restricts the space for interest - rate cuts. The fundamentals are in a state of "weak reality + stable expectations". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, and the price will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the short - term macro boost to the price is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the peak - season expectations and actual consumption, with the main contract in the range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures followed the upward trend of aluminum prices last week. With the arrival of the peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is gradually being transmitted to the smelting end, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand in the peak season is fair, with a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The upward space of Shanghai zinc is limited, and the short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of nickel is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel is supported by raw materials, but the peak - season demand has not been effectively realized. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply path of lithium carbonate is becoming clearer, and the upward trading expectation is weakening. However, strong demand provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the price center in the range of 70,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,755 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.84% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 270 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic social inventory increased by 2.63% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. The import loss was 1,374 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM East China ADC12 price rose to 21,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.48%. The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,230 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.23%. The import loss was 2,805 yuan/ton [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 3.56% week - on - week [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 271,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 55.74% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.15%. The futures import loss was 1,248 yuan/ton [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread was - 180 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Yuantong Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,150 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot - futures price difference increased by 11.11% [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread was - 90 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in August was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% week - on - week [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased to 72,450 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.55%. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.24% [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2511 spread was 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% [18].

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and fundamentals, with a forecast range of 80,500-82,000 CNY/ton and 10,000-10,250 USD/ton [1] - The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is concern over high prices leading to weak transaction volumes [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices have shown a slight increase, averaging 20,740 CNY, with a rise of 0.32% [1] - The market is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with stable supply and a slight recovery in demand [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high range, with an average around 20,800 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Lead - Lead prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with no significant changes in spot prices [2] - The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision [2] - If the expected 25 basis point rate cut occurs, it may boost sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector [2] Group 4: Zinc - The zinc market faces ongoing supply pressure, with weak demand during the peak season affecting prices [2] - There is a positive outlook for zinc prices in the short term, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and domestic policy responses [2] - The expected price range for zinc is between 22,000-22,800 CNY/ton [2] Group 5: Tin - Refined tin prices have experienced a decline, with a cumulative drop of 1,000 CNY/ton [2] - The market is influenced by weak labor market data and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Tin prices are anticipated to show a strong fluctuation, with a focus on a range of 265,000-280,000 CNY/ton [2] Group 6: Nickel - The average price of nickel is reported at 122,230 CNY/ton, down by 1,140 CNY or 0.92% [3] - Concerns over the resumption of Indonesian mines and weak macroeconomic data are pressuring prices [3] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels, with a forecast range of 118,000-123,000 CNY/ton [3]