上半年，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强 领导下，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，贯彻新发展 理念，构建新发展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，国民经济顶住压力稳中向好，展现较强韧性。 一、上半年经济运行平稳，三次产业协同发展 上半年，我国GDP为660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%，经济运行总体平稳。其中，第一 产业增加值31172亿元，同比增长3.7%，对经济增长的贡献率为3.6%；第二产业增加值239050亿元，同 比增长5.3%，对经济增长的贡献率为36.2%；第三产业增加值390314亿元，同比增长5.5%，对经济增长 的贡献率为60.2%。三次产业增加值占GDP的比重分别为4.7%、36.2%和59.1%。 二季度，我国GDP为341778亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。其中，第一产业增加值19459亿 元，同比增长3.8%，对经济增长的贡献率为4.6%；第二产业增加值127147亿元，同比增长4.8%，对经 济增长的贡献率为34.2%；第三产业增加值195172亿元，同比增长5.7%，对经济增 ...

中金 7 月数说资产 20250715 摘要 二季度 GDP 同比下降 1.3%，连续九个季度负增长，其中建筑业拖累显 著，出口贡献下降，投资和消费贡献上升。6 月出口改善，但内需回落， 社会零售总额增速放缓至 4.8%，固定资产投资增速降至 2.8%。 A 股近期表现强劲，突破年内高点，主要受市场情绪和资金面驱动。短 期市场可能进入震荡消化期，但中期看好，公募私募仓位低，A 股估值 具吸引力，若政策催化，下半年有望突破去年高点。 建议采取两头策略：保留红利资产作为底仓，结合中报、行业周期和产 业趋势布局，相对看好 AI 算力、创新药、军工、有色金属等行业。 解决供需失衡难度大，反内卷板块上涨主要因仓位、估值和位置低。未 来上涨需关注反内卷政策落实，而非盲目乐观。 6 月金融数据表现良好，社融和信贷超预期，反映信贷需求恢复，M1 和 M2 增速回升。三季度初信贷或回落，需关注政策性金融工具和房地产 刺激政策的影响。 6 月二手房市场同比下降 2%，房价承压，提升后续政策发力可能性。 房地产企业到位资金同比跌幅与 5 月持平，销售回款拖累明显，竣工跌 幅收窄，开发商投资意愿有限。 6 月社会消费品零售总额同比增 ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The GDP for the second quarter was 34,177.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] Industry Performance - The primary industry added value was 31.17 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary industry added value was 239.05 billion yuan, growing by 5.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 390.31 billion yuan, growing by 5.5% [2] - Industrial production increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing growing by 6.6% [4] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors saw an increase of 11.1%, while leasing and business services grew by 9.6% [4] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half, with a contribution of 52.3% in the second quarter [5] - Capital formation contributed 16.8% to economic growth in the first half, with a contribution of 24.7% in the second quarter [5] - Net exports contributed 31.2% to economic growth in the first half, with a contribution of 23.0% in the second quarter [5] New Economic Drivers - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a revenue growth of 11.4% from January to May [6] - The added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively in the first half [6] - Investment in equipment manufacturing grew by 7.5%, while high-tech service industry investment increased by 8.6% [6]

细看这份"成绩单"，一系列数据勾勒出经济高质量发展的三条主线：消费对经济增长拉动作用显著，服 务业增势向好，经济结构呈现向"优"之姿；新产业、新技术、新业态继续保持较快发展，发展动能展现 向"新"之态；经济可持续发展能力增强，再加上宏观政策协同发力，经济有望延续向"好"之势。 ◎记者 陈芳 国家统计局7月15日发布数据显示，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%，增速比去年同期和全 年均提升0.3个百分点。 "上半年经济运行总体平稳，稳中有进、稳中向好，是一份含金量非常高的'成绩单'。"国家统计局副局 长盛来运当天在国新办新闻发布会上表示，这是在二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的 情况下取得的成绩，非常不容易。 向新：新质生产力加快发展 向优：消费担当"压舱石" 上半年经济运行突出一个"稳"字。数据显示，上半年GDP达660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 5.3%。分季度看，一季度同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。从环比看，二季度GDP增长1.1%。 "整体来看，中国经济增长走势平稳，全年大概率能够完成5%的增速目标。"中国社科院世经政所全球 宏观室主任肖立晟说。 从上半年经济数据 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen's total electricity consumption from January to June 2025 reached 56.93 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - The electricity consumption in the secondary industry was 26.99 billion kWh, up 2.5% year-on-year, while the tertiary industry consumed 20.95 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 6.8% [1] - Residential electricity usage was 8.96 billion kWh, showing a significant increase of 7.6% year-on-year [1] Industry Performance - Industrial electricity consumption in Shenzhen totaled 26.01 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, indicating steady industrial development and ongoing transformation [1] - The manufacturing sector accounted for 21.09 billion kWh of electricity consumption, also growing by 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Notable growth in specific manufacturing sectors included automotive manufacturing (24.5%), computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (11.4%), instrument manufacturing (8.1%), and pharmaceutical manufacturing (6.6%) [1] Tertiary Sector Dynamics - The service sector exhibited robust performance, with the top three sub-industries in electricity consumption growth being wholesale and retail (19.8%), information transmission, software, and IT services (19.8%), and leasing and business services (9.4%) [1] - The electricity consumption in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector reflects the vitality of the digital economy [1] Data Center and AI Development - Shenzhen is accelerating its development as a leading city in artificial intelligence, with data center electricity consumption growing rapidly [2] - The electricity demand from internet and related services surged by 38.2% year-on-year, with internet data services alone increasing by 42.8% [2] - The Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau is actively engaging with customers for energy-saving renovations and enhancing the green electricity share for data centers [2]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 二季度GDP同比5.2%、预期5.2%。6月，社零当月同比4.8%、预期5.6%；固定资产投资累计同比 2.8%、预期3.7%；工业增加值当月同比6.8%、预期5.5%。 核心观点：6月经济数据存在五大"异常"，经济新变化潜藏在隐秘的角落。 GDP：为何出口、工业生产超预期，但二季度GDP持平预期？建筑业生产明显走低，物价也扰动名义指 标体感。 一是建筑业明显走弱，上半年建筑业总产值同比（0.2%）明显低于一季度（2.5%）；二季度工 业增加值增速（6.3%）略低于一季度（6.5%），但第二产业增速（4.8%）大幅低于一季度（5.9%），统 计差异即是建筑业；二是物价扰动出口读数，二季度出口保持高位源于出口价格回升，但净出口对实际 GDP贡献下降0.9个百分点。 消费：为何商品零售与餐饮收入大幅下滑？电商促销错位与外卖平台补贴竞争共同扰动。 往年于6月电 商促销活动提前至5月中上旬，以限额以上商品零售的环比增速为例，2020-2024年5月、6月环比均值分 别为8.4%、17.3%，而2025年同期则为11.5% ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 15 日 6 月经济：名义 GDP 增速边际放缓，关注股债双牛兑现 ——2025 年 6 月宏观数据解读 核心观点 我们认为，6 月经济回稳势头较好，二季度 GDP 实际增长 5.2%，供给端修复斜 率显著高于需求端，6 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 6.8%，量价总体延续 背离。据我们测算，二季度名义 GDP 增速较一季度放缓 0.7 个百分点至 3.9%左 右，价格因素或拖累企业盈利改善的斜率。整体来看，二季度经济相较一季度将 有所回落，全年可能呈现前高后低的走势，需要重点关注经济的波动，我们预计 经济运行在内外部环境不确定性抬升的过程中或呈现非线性特征，供给和需求可 能呈现 K 型分化走势。我们判断，后续在出口波动的影响下，供给端大概率在抢 出口效应下保持偏强态势，但固定资产投资尤其是制造业投资方面可能受制于中 长期不确定性的约束，预计固定资产投资后续可能放缓。 6 月份服务业景气较为积极，6 月份全国服务业生产指数同比增长 6.0%。工业生 产积极对生产性服务业有带动作用。 展望未来，在工业稳增长及两新政 ...

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2%, slightly above market expectations of 5.1%[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 3.9% due to low inflation[2] - The economic growth forecast for the second half of the year is maintained at around 4%[10] Domestic Demand - June data showed a significant decline in domestic demand, with retail sales growth dropping from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, below the expected 5.3%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth fell by 0.9 percentage points to 2.8%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.6%[5] - Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, with property sales down 5.5% in June compared to May's 3.8%[7] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production growth increased by 1 percentage point to 6.8%, exceeding market expectations of 5.6%[5] - Exports maintained a robust growth rate, with a trade surplus growth of 24.5% year-on-year in Q2, although lower than Q1's 49%[9] Inflation and Employment - The CPI turned positive in June at 0.1%, ending four months of negative readings, while the core CPI rose slightly to 0.7%[8] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, consistent with expectations[5] Policy Outlook - The upcoming political bureau economic meeting is unlikely to introduce significant new policies, but attention will be on potential real estate support measures and "anti-involution" strategies[11] - Fiscal policy may see an acceleration in government bond issuance, with 2.3 trillion yuan of local government special bonds remaining for the second half of the year[12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth trends in China's retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production for June 2025, indicating a mixed economic recovery with varying performance across sectors and regions [1][6][14]. Retail Sales - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5] - Urban retail sales amounted to 36,559 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while rural retail sales were 5,728 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [2] - For the first half of 2025, total retail sales were 245,458 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase, with non-automobile retail sales growing by 5.5% [5] Fixed Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [7] - The investment in the primary industry was 4,816 billion yuan (up 6.5%), while the secondary industry saw an investment of 88,294 billion yuan (up 10.2%), and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 1.1% with 155,543 billion yuan [8] - The eastern region's investment decreased by 0.8%, while the central and western regions saw increases of 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively [11] Industrial Production - In June 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.50% [15] - The manufacturing sector showed a growth of 7.4%, while the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector grew by 1.8% [16] - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in coal mining (6.5%), chemical manufacturing (7.5%), and automotive manufacturing (11.4%) [17] Online Retail - In the first half of 2025, online retail sales reached 74,295 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth, with physical goods online retail sales at 61,191 billion yuan (up 6.0%) [4] - The share of physical goods online retail sales in total retail sales was 24.9%, with food, clothing, and daily necessities growing by 15.7%, 1.4%, and 5.3%, respectively [4] Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale industries in the second quarter of 2025 was 74.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [21] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization was 74.3%, while the mining sector was at 72.7% [22]

Group 1 - The core index of the A-share market, the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index, closed at 4595.61 points, showing mixed performance among the three major indices [1] - The CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index has increased by 2.41% in the past month, 5.35% in the past three months, and 4.51% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 1000 index series selects liquid and representative securities from each industry to form 10 industry indices, providing investors with diversified investment options [2] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index include: Silver Wheel Holdings (3.34%), Longxin General (2.85%), Shuanglin Shares (2.65%), Qianli Technology (2.61%), Wancheng Group (2.53%), Fulim Precision (2.27%), Kids Wang (1.93%), Weifu High-Tech (1.92%), Huamao Technology (1.86%), and Jihua Group (1.80%) [2] - The market capitalization distribution of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index shows that the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 60.41%, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 39.59% [2] - The industry composition of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index includes: Passenger vehicles and parts (54.82%), Durable consumer goods (15.94%), Retail (14.06%), Textiles, clothing, and jewelry (10.36%), and Consumer services (4.82%) [2] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes mergers, acquisitions, or splits [3] - When the CSI 1000 index adjusts its samples, the corresponding adjustments will also be made to the CSI 1000 industry indices [3]