国泰海通证券 6 月基金表现回顾 [Table_Authors] 魏玮(分析师) 重配 TMT、军工、有色等相关行业个股的基金表现较优 本报告导读： 2025 年 6 月，A 股上涨，债市上涨，美股上涨，油价上涨，金价调整。基金方 面，部分重配 TMT、军工、有色等相关行业个股的基金表现较优。 投资要点： 2025 年 6 月基金业绩回顾 基金研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.02 | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040123 | | | 庄梓恺(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040038 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 基 金 研 究 基 金 月 报 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月资本市场回顾 股票市场：A 股上涨，TMT、军工、有色等行业表现较优。2025 年 6 月，5 月制造业 PMI 环比上升带动 A 股上行，但受中东局势影响， 市场于月中承压调整，后在伊以宣布正式停火、央行等六部门联合 发布《关于金融支持提振 ...

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.06.23-2025.06.27。 指数层面，沪指冲上3400短期内指数方面或需震荡整固确认支撑，短期以结构性机会为主。前期 上涨较多的大金融板块动能有所减弱，不过银行板块的调整或主因季末部分风格漂移的基金进行 调仓，导致短期抛压上升，但跨月后有望扭转，仍然可视作布局机会。此外，市场情绪和活跃度 回升后，预计主题方向短期有望迎来机会，美股科技近期强势，指向科技股业绩前景仍然向好， 叠加前期成交占比回落，TMT、AI、算力、半导体、游戏等方向近期性价比上升。 权益市场， 上周，小盘成长风格重回优势；市场波动方面，大小盘风格波动下降，价值成长风格 波动略有上升。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度略有上升，成分股上涨比例大幅 提高，行业轮动速度下降；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交集中度较上期持平，前5行业成交额 占比上升。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率上升，市场换手率大幅增加。 商品市场方面 ，上周，商品市场方面，除农产品外，其余板块趋势强度均有所下降；基差 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

生物医药企业在沪办公楼租赁市场占比 从3%提升至10% 智通财经7月2日电，零售贸易制造与TMT行业企业，成为上海甲级办公市场的租赁主力。据戴德梁行 今日披露的数据，2025年二季度，上海甲级写字楼市场净吸纳量为8.53万平方米，日平均租金6.99元/平 方米。按租赁需求结构，零售贸易制造与TMT行业企业，在该季度比例分别为28%、23%，占比超过一 半。监测数据显示，金融行业租赁成交占比为15%，此外，生物医药行业租赁需求明显增加；2024年二 季度，上海写字楼租赁中，生物医药企业占比为3%；而今年二季度，因部分国内外知名药企大面积搬 迁成交，该行业企业在上海二季度办公租赁市场占比大幅提升至10%。（智通财经记者 王海春） ...

Market Overview - A-shares have resumed an upward trend after a period of consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through March highs and reaching new recent closing highs [1] - The market sentiment regarding trade conflicts has eased, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is viewed as a short-term emotional impact [1] - The low interest rate environment and rising risk appetite are supporting the A-share market's return to a slow upward trajectory [1] Sector Analysis - The innovation drug and banking sectors, which were previously popular, have resumed their upward trends after short-term adjustments [2] - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are experiencing rebounds, indicating a high-low switch among sectors as the market remains event-driven [2] - Consumer expansion and domestic demand are key tasks for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards localization, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2] Trading Activity - A-shares experienced some intraday fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with trading volume remaining stable and no signs of panic selling [3] - Leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials, while sectors like computers, retail, communications, and power equipment saw declines [3]

Core Insights - The number of IPO applications received in June reached a record high for the year, with 150 companies applying, driven by periodic financial data updates and an improving regulatory framework under the registration system [1][2][3] Group 1: IPO Application Trends - A total of 177 companies' IPO applications were accepted in the first half of the year, a significant increase from 29 in the same period last year, with June alone accounting for over 85% of the total [2][4] - The last few days of June saw a surge in applications, with 41 new IPOs accepted on June 30, including 32 by the Beijing Stock Exchange [2][7] - The increase in IPO applications is linked to the financial reporting cycle, as companies must submit applications within six months of their financial report's validity [3][4] Group 2: Industry Distribution and Market Sentiment - Manufacturing companies dominate the IPO applications, particularly in sectors like computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - The number of IPO withdrawals has decreased significantly, with only 66 withdrawals reported by June 30, compared to last year's higher figures, indicating improved market confidence among quality companies [4][6] Group 3: Support for Unprofitable Companies - The acceptance of IPO applications from unprofitable companies has increased, with four such companies applying in June, primarily in the semiconductor sector [5][6] - Notable examples include DaPuWei, which reported projected revenues of approximately 5.57 billion yuan in 2022 but incurred losses, and Zhaoxin Integrated, which focuses on high-end processors [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The A-share market is expected to see a steady increase in IPO numbers in 2025, particularly from companies in key manufacturing and strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and new energy [8]

Core Insights - The public fund market showed significant profitability in the first half of 2025, with 87% of funds achieving positive returns, highlighting a strong market recovery [1][9][10] - The top-performing funds were dominated by innovative drug and North Exchange theme funds, indicating a trend towards specialized investment strategies [2][3][4][5] Fund Performance - The best-performing fund was Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selection A, with a net value growth of 86.48%, followed closely by CITIC Securities North Exchange Selection with 82.45% and Great Wall Pharmaceutical Industry Selection A with 75.18% [3][4] - Seven out of the top ten funds were heavily invested in innovative drugs, while two were focused on North Exchange themes, showcasing the effectiveness of concentrated investment strategies [4][5] Market Trends - The first half of 2025 saw a notable performance from sectors such as innovative drugs, North Exchange, humanoid robots, and new consumption, with these themes alternating in prominence [2][3][10] - Analysts predict that the positive trends for innovative drugs and North Exchange themes are likely to continue into the second half of the year, supported by structural opportunities in these sectors [7][8] Overall Market Dynamics - A total of 12,571 funds were analyzed, with 10,949 achieving positive returns, reflecting a broad-based recovery in the public fund market [9] - The market exhibited a "barbell" characteristic, with both high-growth technology stocks and low-valuation, high-dividend stocks performing well, particularly in the banking sector [10] Sector Performance - Certain sectors, such as real estate and food and beverage, underperformed, leading to lower returns for funds heavily invested in these areas [11] - The bond market transitioned from a bull market to a more volatile environment, resulting in weaker performance for fixed-income funds [11]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 风险因子：1）微盘股踩踏；2）美元流动性恶化；3）期权市场流动 性不及预期；4）关税超预期；5）供给超预期；6）货币宽松超预期 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-01 股市情绪偏暖，债市延续震荡 股指期货：情绪偏暖，多空良性换⼿ 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：短期预计债市延续震荡 股指期货方面，情绪偏暖，多空良性换手。大盘股资金拥挤后回撤， 伴随券商板块换手率降低，非银、银行、交运领跌，而资金外流至强热点 小盘股，军工、TMT行业领涨，出现行情扩散。同时，IM出现多空良性换 手，当日IM持仓大降超1.9万手，配合日内贴水走阔，特别是尾盘15分钟 贴水迅速加深，应是上周追涨的多单逐步止盈，且小盘股超额收益改善， 中性策略配合增加对冲空单持仓。另外，地缘风险缓和、关税节点后延， 宏观风险平息，而中报预告临近，市场转向关注内部盈利改善，万得预增 指数创新高。情绪偏暖环境下，保留多头配置，操作上，继续配置IM多 单。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。期权方面，虽然情绪指标跟随标的上 行，但期权市场成交额出现明显回落，交易流动性不及预期。在流动性低 迷的衍 ...

首先，外部环境边际改善，国内市场风险偏好继续回升。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边 际改善。美联储降息预期较之前有所上升，推动全球资本市场总体反弹。国内市场风险偏好同样明显回 升，沪指上周创出年内新高，深圳成分指数亦有所反弹。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司的中报将 成为影响行情的重要影响因素，投资者宜根据最新信息，相机抉择。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 其次，两市震荡，成交略降。周一，两市小幅低开后，逐级向上反弹，沪指收盘于全天高点附近， 并收回五天均线。深圳成指继续反弹，近期表现强于沪市。两市量能 1.4 万亿元左右，较上周五有所下 降。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停股票数量较多。当天市场热点主要集中在国防军工和 TMT 行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，重心上移一个台阶。沪指上周突破了五、 六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。当然，去年四季度的成交密集区仍有 较强技术阻力，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就得向上突破。 ...

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，但去年四季度高点附近压力仍大。沪指上 周一举突破了五、六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。但是，去年四季度 的成交密集区仍有较强技术阻力，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就得向上突破。 首先，中东地缘事件缓和，市场风险偏好回升。上周，以色列和伊朗的军事冲突有所缓和，交战各 方约定停战止戈。全球资本市场总体呈现回升状态，国内市场风险偏好明显回升，沪指创出年内新高。 此外，美联储降息预期在上周有所加强，亦对反弹行情有所助推。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司 的中报将成为影响行情的重要影响因素。 上周，两市震荡反弹，日均成交明显增加。沪指上周一路反弹，周中高点冲破年内高点，周五有所 回落，收盘略低于五天均线。深圳成指上周持续反弹，周五收盘重新站上半年线。量能方面，上周两市 日均量能超过 14000 亿，较上周出现明显增加。上周市场热点主要集中在军工、TMT 和非银金融行 业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 ...