Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize at the support levels of 3100 points for the Shanghai Composite Index and 9200 points for the Shenzhen Component Index, leading to a structural market trend favoring domestic demand, domestic substitution, and high-dividend sectors [2][5][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant adjustments due to escalating trade tensions with the United States, but showed signs of stabilization in the latter half of the week [3]. - Early in the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.34% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 9.66%, with over 5200 stocks declining and nearly 3000 hitting the daily limit down [4]. - Sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the Apple supply chain, automotive parts, and communication equipment, faced the largest declines, while technology stocks showed some recovery later in the week [4]. - The agricultural sector became a market highlight following the release of a policy aimed at advancing agricultural technology and promoting independent innovation in seed industries, leading to active stock performance in related companies [4]. - The high-speed rail sector saw significant gains, and the duty-free segment of consumption benefited from new tax refund measures aimed at attracting foreign tourists [4]. Market Outlook - In the context of overseas market declines and ongoing trade tensions, the health and stability of the A-share market are deemed crucial [5]. - Institutions such as Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin announced plans to increase their holdings in A-shares starting April 7, indicating confidence in the market [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration's announcement to adjust the regulatory ratio of insurance funds to equity assets aims to enhance support for the capital market and the real economy [5]. - A number of A-share companies have also announced stock repurchases, reflecting their confidence in future growth prospects [5]. - The resilience and potential of the Chinese economy are highlighted, with a focus on companies that are becoming globally competitive as key stabilizing forces in the market [5].

牧原股份 20250413 牧原股份在养殖行业中的竞争优势是什么？ 牧原股份在养殖行业中的竞争优势主要体现在以下几个方面： • 牧原股份 2025 年预计出栏量接近 9,000 万头，远超同行神农集团的 300 多 万头，显示其卓越的规模化运营能力。 • 尽管基数庞大，牧原股份 2025 年一季度出栏增速仍超预期，表明其在成本 控制前提下保持了强劲的增长势头。 • 2025 年一季度，牧原股份在猪价同比小幅下降的情况下依然实现盈利，规 模经济中值约为 45 亿元，利润基础稳固。 • 牧原股份预计全年平均养殖成本将降至每公斤 12 元，年底或达 11 元左右。 在周期平均猪价 15 元/公斤时，有望实现年度利润超 300 亿元。 • 牧原股份全年出栏量预计接近 9,000 万头，包含大量仔猪销售，育肥产能 约为 8,000 万头，通过分工化经营提高整体出栏水平和盈利能力。 • 牧原股份通过精细化管理持续降低养殖成本，已处于行业领先水平，并具 备进一步下降的潜力。 • 牧原股份已从高成长阶段过渡到高质量发展阶段，资本开支和负债率均呈 下降趋势，内部管理不断优化，长期配置价值凸显。 i. 成本优化：公司最新的还原成 ...

Group 1 - The agricultural sector is experiencing strong performance, with multiple stocks such as XinSai Co., WanXiang DeNong, BeiDaHuang, and QiuLe Seed Industry hitting the daily limit, while others like JinDan Technology and KangNong Seed Industry have risen over 10% [1][2] - Specific stock performance includes QiuLe Seed Industry up by 29.98% to 28.57, KangNong Seed Industry up by 23.67% to 54.66, and JinDan Technology up by 16.50% to 17.70 [2] Group 2 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council have issued a plan for building a strong agricultural nation by 2035, aiming for significant progress by 2027 and modernization of rural areas [3] - The plan emphasizes the need for advanced agricultural machinery, highlighting the demand for high-performance and intelligent agricultural equipment, particularly in grain production [3] - The plan also includes upgrading agricultural machinery and promoting the integration of agricultural machinery and agronomy to enhance efficiency and productivity [3] Group 3 - Pacific Securities highlights the defensive attributes of the agricultural sector amid trade tariffs, recommending investment in the planting industry chain related to soybeans and corn, as well as livestock sectors related to pork and poultry [4] - The investment strategy focuses on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as dairy farming and poultry farming, which are experiencing capacity reduction and price reversal expectations [4] - The pet food sector is also identified as a value investment opportunity due to its sustained high demand and overseas production capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector in light of the recent tariff increases on U.S. imports [1][5][4]. Core Views - The imposition of a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports is expected to benefit the domestic agricultural sector, particularly in the areas of feed, livestock, and seed industries [1][2][3]. - The report highlights that the increase in tariffs will likely lead to price hikes in key agricultural products such as soybean meal, corn, and beef, thereby enhancing the profitability of domestic producers [2][24][3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact Analysis - The Chinese government announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports effective April 10, 2025, which is expected to raise the import costs of key agricultural products [1][15][16]. - Major U.S. agricultural imports to China include sorghum, soybeans, cotton, beef, and corn, with soybeans and corn being particularly affected by the tariff [1][24]. Feed and Livestock Sector - The report is optimistic about companies like Haida Group and leading pig and poultry farming enterprises, which are expected to see enhanced profit margins due to better raw material management amid rising feed prices [2][3]. - The report suggests that the cost of feed, which constitutes a significant portion of livestock production costs, will rise, potentially accelerating the cycle of livestock production and benefiting leading companies in the sector [2][3]. Seed and Crop Sector - The seed industry is anticipated to benefit from a favorable price cycle and advancements in genetically modified crops, with corn prices expected to rise due to increased import costs from the U.S. tariffs [2][3]. - Companies with land resources in the planting sector are also expected to gain from rising grain prices [2][3]. Beef Industry Outlook - The domestic beef industry is projected to experience a turnaround as domestic supply decreases and U.S. beef imports shrink due to the new tariffs [3][24]. - The report indicates that the valuation of related beef companies is currently at a low point, suggesting potential for growth as market sentiment improves [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in the following sectors: 1. Pig farming: Mu Yuan, Hua Tong, Wen's, Shen Nong Group, Xin Wu Feng, Ju Xing Agricultural, Tang Ren Shen, Tian Kang Biological 2. Poultry farming: Li Hua, Yi Sheng, Sheng Nong Development 3. Feed: Haida Group 4. Seed: Quan Yin Gao Ke, Long Ping Gao Ke, Feng Le Seed Industry, Deng Hai Seed Industry, Da Bei Nong [3][4].

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

Market Performance - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.86% [1] - Market sentiment was low in the morning, with a brief rebound before maintaining fluctuations in the afternoon. Over 3,000 stocks fell, while 2,000 rose. The total trading volume increased to 1.13 trillion, up 163.1 billion from the previous day [1] Sector and Hotspot Analysis - The consumer sector outperformed, driven by the U.S. imposing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with cumulative tariffs on China expected to rise to 54%. This situation emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for the economy, with potential policy support for infrastructure and key industries [2] - Specific sectors like tourism, retail, liquor, and aquaculture saw significant gains, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai showing a stable annual performance (2024 revenue growth of 15.66%) boosting consumer confidence [2] - The electricity sector was positively impacted by electricity price reform policies, while real estate stocks surged due to housing development plans in Guangzhou [2] - Pharmaceutical stocks remained active, supported by expectations of innovative drug policies and performance catalysts [3] - Conversely, high export-oriented stocks plummeted, particularly in the technology sector, with significant declines in consumer electronics, photovoltaics, and AI applications [3] Market Influencing Factors - The tariff policy announced by Trump caused global market fluctuations, with the Chinese government indicating it would take countermeasures, leading to a partial recovery in market sentiment. A potential 54% tax rate could impact GDP by 1.2 percentage points, with a more significant effect on corporate profits [4] - The high tariffs may push the EU and ASEAN to strengthen cooperation with China [5] Future Tracking Points - Domestic policies aimed at expanding internal demand are expected to be intensified, with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. The first quarter GDP growth is projected at 5.2%, with a decline anticipated in the second quarter, particularly affecting exports and corporate profits [7] - Ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs are crucial, as the potential for tariff adjustments remains uncertain [7] Fund Flow and Style Shift - There is a shift in funds from high-valuation technology stocks to defensive consumer and undervalued blue-chip stocks, indicating a decrease in market risk appetite. High-dividend sectors like banking and public utilities are gaining institutional attention [8] Institutional Views and Market Outlook - Short-term market fluctuations are expected to continue, with a balanced focus on first-quarter performance stocks and policy-driven consumer and technology sectors [9] - Long-term opportunities are seen in the consumer and cyclical sectors, benefiting from policy support and low valuation advantages [10] - The technology sector may present entry opportunities following adjustments, particularly in artificial intelligence and robotics [11] Summary - The A-share market faced declines due to external tariff shocks and technology stock corrections, while defensive sectors like consumer and electricity showed resilience. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of policy implementations and first-quarter performance validations, with recommendations for balanced allocations prioritizing undervalued blue chips and high-certainty industries, while remaining cautious of policy risks for high-export companies [12]

Mergers and Acquisitions - Anyuan Coal Industry's controlling shareholder plans to swap 57% of Jiang Jinhui's magnetic separation shares with the company's coal business, which is expected to constitute a significant asset restructuring [1] - *ST Zhongji intends to acquire 100% equity of New Energy Chemical [1] Equity Transfer, Buyback, and Increase - Kingsoft Office's shareholder is inquiring about the transfer of 7.7618 million shares [2] - Shenhuo Co. plans to repurchase shares for between 250 million to 450 million yuan [2] - Glodon Company intends to repurchase shares for between 105 million to 210 million yuan [2] - Lite Optoelectronics plans to repurchase shares for between 50 million to 100 million yuan [2] - Hengtong Group, the controlling shareholder of Hengtong Co., plans to increase its stake by 150 million to 300 million yuan [2] External Investment and Daily Operations - Jinlongyu plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in the construction of a solid-state battery material project [3] - Guangxin Materials' fundraising project "11,300t/a self-made resin and 7,000t/a inner layer ink" has begun trial production [3] - WuXi AppTec sold 50.8 million shares of WuXi AppTec Holdings, with an investment return of approximately 1.847 billion yuan [3] - Shanghai Environment intends to acquire 50% equity of Shanghai Chengbo Lian Industrial Co., Ltd. for 582 million yuan [3] - Taicheng Light signed a global patent licensing agreement with US Conec Ltd., allowing for mass production and sales of MDC fiber optic connectors [3] Performance Changes - New Hope expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 122.23% to 125.85% in the first quarter of 2025, with a reduction in losses from pig farming and an increase in both volume and profit in the feed business [4] - Haili Heavy Industry anticipates a year-on-year net profit growth of 50.00% to 65.00% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by improved order quality and a higher proportion of high-margin product orders, resulting in increased sales gross margin [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of avian influenza on breeding restrictions, particularly focusing on white feather chickens [2] - The report indicates a short-term supply-demand game in pig farming, emphasizing the need to monitor weight feedback [22] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the aquaculture sector, noting stable prices in the aquatic products market [58] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector increased by 0.56% this week, ranking second among the Shenwan first-level industries [13] - The animal husbandry and veterinary sectors showed an upward trend, with notable stock performances [16] 2. Livestock Farming - **Pig Farming**: The average price of live pigs is 14.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.07% and a two-week increase of 0.31%. The average price of piglets is 647 CNY/head, with a week-on-week increase of 2.70% [22] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of white feather meat chickens is 7.48 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.05%. The price of meat chicks is 2.98 CNY/chick, with a week-on-week increase of 2.41% [33] - **Aquaculture**: Prices for various aquatic products remain stable, with carp priced at 18.00 CNY/kg and shrimp at 300.00 CNY/kg [58] 3. Investment Recommendations - For pig farming, recommended companies include Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Shennong Group. For white feather chicken, focus on companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biotechnology [4] - The report anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance in the first half of 2025, suggesting significant performance improvement potential in the post-cycle sector [4] 4. Industry Events - The report notes that over 35 million acres of grain have been sown nationwide, with a focus on improving yields through modern agricultural practices [69] - Central government support for pig farming is highlighted, particularly in terms of subsidies for breeding sows and fattening pigs [69]

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile trading day with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.05%, and ChiNext Index down 0.26% [1] - Sectors such as chemical fiber, electric machinery, and photovoltaic equipment saw significant gains, while shipbuilding, banking, and mining sectors faced declines [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Industry Insights - According to Zhongtai Securities, rare earth prices are at a cyclical bottom, with import mineral controls tightening, leading to a more concentrated supply structure and potential price increases [2] - The anticipated production of humanoid robots starting in 2025 could create a demand for 200,000 to 400,000 tons of rare earths, equivalent to recreating a rare earth permanent magnet market [2] - Guojin Securities suggests that the overall downward trend in rare earth prices for 2024 may limit quota growth in 2025, but new demand from humanoid robots and low-altitude economy could boost the sector [2] Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Developments - Caixin Securities forecasts a price recovery in the photovoltaic industry chain driven by demand surges and low inventory replenishment in Q2 [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the upcoming installation rush in the photovoltaic sector, with significant price recovery expected in the mid and downstream segments [3] - The current photovoltaic sector is seen as having a triple bottom in terms of performance, sentiment, and attention, with key recommendations focusing on glass, battery cells, new technologies, and large storage [3] Group 4: Livestock Industry Trends - Guohai Securities notes that the pressure on pig supply is easing, with demand showing marginal improvement, leading to an expected gradual increase in pig prices [4] - The period of maximum downward pressure on pig prices has passed, and there is potential for a seasonal price increase in Q2-Q3 of 2025 due to a supply gap [4] - The overall increase in pig supply is expected to lead to a bottoming out of the industry, with opportunities for strategic positioning [5]