Core Viewpoint - The company, HaiMuxing, forecasts a significant increase in net losses for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to industry challenges such as overcapacity in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors, leading to intensified market competition and declining product prices [3]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between -9.1 billion to -8.5 billion yuan, a substantial increase in losses compared to the previous year's loss of -1.63 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company, after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is anticipated to be between -9.8 billion to -9.2 billion yuan, compared to -2.16 billion yuan in the same period last year [3]. Operational Challenges - The core reasons for the performance decline include overcapacity in the lithium battery and photovoltaic industries, increased market competition, and challenges in cost control, which have significantly pressured operations [3]. - The company has conducted impairment tests on ongoing projects and recognized corresponding impairment losses, directly impacting current profits [3]. Strategic Initiatives - To ensure long-term development, the company is increasing its strategic R&D investments and actively expanding into overseas markets, which has led to a rise in related expenses, further affecting current profit performance [4]. - Notably, the company has shown signs of improvement in its performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, with expected year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating positive results from business adjustments [4].

眉山市新能源新材料融合创新中心。雷同 摄 1月16日，成都科创生态岛眉山分岛项目推进活动在四川天府新区眉山片区举行。以陶智院士工作站为依托，这颗 嵌入天府大道科创走廊的"科创明星"，正从蓝图加速落地。 从新年第一会到市两会，眉山将"推进科技创新与产业创新深度融合，全社会研发投入总量增长15%以上"列为今 年发展主题之一，旨在聚力提升科创能力、催生新质生产力。 在高校院所和战略科技力量相对薄弱的条件下，眉山的"创新基因"从何而来？又如何推动"两新"深度融合，向新 求质？ 平台筑基 在协鑫锂电研发中心，技术人员正在进行新产品的研发测试。仁寿县委宣传部供图 企业育新 贯通"研发+转化"快车道 增强"创新基因"，眉山将突破口精准地选在科技成果从实验室走向市场的关键环节——中试转化。 "中试是对工艺系统优化、安全环保升级、市场可行性的系统性工程验证。"四川中试科技成果转化服务有限公司 总工程师叶锐说，因此被业界称为跨越创新"死亡谷"的桥梁。 打通这座桥梁，需要系统性布局。2024年9月，眉山市新能源新材料融合创新中心投运，一年多来累计引进优质中 试项目22个，其中4个已在眉山实现产业化落地。 2025年底，全球首条大规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate supply increment is expected to be between 300,000 to 500,000 tons by 2026, with prices potentially balancing between 150,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton, depending on supply increments and demand dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - The current lithium battery cycle driven by energy storage mirrors the previous solar photovoltaic cycle, with significant non-linear demand growth following the "grid parity" phase [2]. - The lithium battery price has decreased by 70%-80% over the past three years, leading to a situation where the total profit of leading companies in the entire industry chain was only 0.18 yuan/Wh [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is expected to reach a bottom of 150,000 yuan per ton, with the potential for inflation in the industry as energy storage demand surges from 2026 to 2028 [4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on critical bottleneck segments and core leading companies, particularly in the lithium carbonate sector, where prices are expected to rise in the long term [5]. - Recommended stocks in the lithium carbonate segment include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, among others [5]. - In the materials segment, companies such as Wanrun New Energy and Tinci Materials are highlighted, while in the integration and battery segments, CATL and Sungrow Power are recommended [5].

中化新网讯 近日，新余市委常委、统战部部长张志凤专程来到江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司，为该 集团所属赣锋锂电颁发"全国就业与社会保障先进民营企业"荣誉证书和奖牌，表彰其在扩容高质量就业 岗位、保障员工合法权益、强化技能人才培育等方面的突出成效。 目前，该公司已为社会提供了上万个稳定的就业岗位;同时积极构建平等、开放的就业环境，持续完善 多元的"薪酬+福利+关怀"体系，全面提升员工福祉。 此外，该公司还建立"师带徒"培养模式和内部培训线上平台，覆盖从一线技术员工、研发工程师到管理 骨干与技能专家的全岗位序列，确保每一位员工都实现与企业共同成长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment sector [5] Core Insights - Elon Musk's companies, SpaceX and Tesla, plan to build a total of 200GW of solar capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [34] - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the lithium battery sector, particularly with the expansion of LMFP production, which is expected to see a 275% year-on-year increase in output by 2025 [17] - The Southern Power Grid Company is set to invest 180 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2026, marking a continuous five-year high, with a focus on new power system construction and strategic emerging industries [25] Summary by Sections Electric Equipment Sector - The report emphasizes the continuous high investment in the electric equipment sector, with a focus on new energy and digital transformation [25] - Key companies to watch include XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and China XD Electric, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing investments [25] Lithium Battery Sector - The report notes significant expansions in LMFP production, with companies like Hunan Youneng and Xiamen Tungsten planning substantial increases in capacity [17] - The introduction of favorable policies for equipment updates and financing is expected to stimulate growth in the lithium battery sector [14] Solar Energy Sector - The report tracks the solar industry, noting stable prices for polysilicon and solar cells, while demand remains cautious due to market uncertainties [27][28] - Companies like Junda Co. are actively pursuing funding to enhance their capabilities in space solar energy, aligning with the broader trend of technological advancement in renewable energy [35] Wind Energy Sector - The report highlights upcoming offshore wind power tenders in Turkey and the Netherlands, indicating a growing international focus on wind energy [8] - Domestic wind power installations are projected to maintain high growth rates, with significant opportunities for companies involved in offshore wind projects [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the vast potential of space photovoltaic technology and the promising prospects of solid-state batteries and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) [1] - The energy storage sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase of over 60% in 2026 due to rising demand and supply constraints [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of various segments within the power equipment industry, including wind power, nuclear power, and lithium batteries, with notable price increases in lithium carbonate and other materials [3][4] Industry Trends - The energy storage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with new installations reaching 66.43 GW and 189.48 GWh in 2025 [3] - The report notes that the U.S. energy storage market is also booming, with a projected installation of 80 GWh in 2026, driven by AI and data center demands [7] - The report indicates that the wind power sector is expected to grow significantly, with domestic offshore wind capacity projected to exceed 8 GW in 2025 [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others are expected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, with Ningde Times projected to achieve a net profit of 11.5-14 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 93.75%-135.87% [3][4] - The report highlights several companies with strong growth potential, including Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and others, which are positioned well in the energy storage and electric vehicle markets [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on energy storage, solid-state batteries, and AIDC technologies, with recommendations for leading companies in these sectors [4][6] - It emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with strong technological advantages and overseas market access, particularly in the context of rising global demand for energy storage solutions [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is cautiously bullish, driven by both supply and demand factors. The supply is tight due to issues with mining licenses and year - end maintenance, while the demand is expected to increase as downstream enterprises may start stockpiling before the Spring Festival and the export tax - rebate policy adjustment may lead to a "non - off - season" for material manufacturers [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In China, the industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 6.8% year - on - year, 0.6% faster than the previous month. The social consumer goods retail总额 in December increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The export amount in December reached $357.75 billion, a record high for a single month, with a year - on - year growth of 6.6% and a 0.7% increase in the growth rate compared to the previous month. Real estate investment in December decreased by 35.8% year - on - year. The CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI in December decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3%. In the US, the initial estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter showed an annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 3.3%, far exceeding the expected 2%. The core PCE index in December increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production decreased slightly. Issues with mining licenses at the ore end continued to intensify, and some enterprises carried out year - end maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. As of January 23, the lithium carbonate production was 24,150 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.8%, a 1.5% week - on - week decline. The lithium hydroxide supply was also tight, with a production of 6,715 tons as of January 16, a week - on - week increase of 325 tons, and an enterprise operating rate of 36.99%, a 1.79% week - on - week increase [3][10][12]. 3.3 Demand Side - From January 1 to 18, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 312,000 units, a 16% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. The wholesale volume was 348,000 units, a 23% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared to the same period of the previous month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises may start stockpiling, and the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy will promote material manufacturers to have a "non - off - season" feature, with the production of lithium iron phosphate returning to an upward trend [4][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the ore - end prices increased significantly. The African SC 5% was priced at $1,850 per ton, a $100 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $2,325 per ton, a $75 per - ton increase compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 6,500 yuan per ton, a 450 - yuan per - ton increase compared to last week. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 36,139 yuan per ton, a 3,529 - yuan decrease compared to last week. The lithium hydroxide industry profit expanded, with a profit of 40,022 yuan per ton as of January 16, a 11,047 - yuan increase compared to last week. However, the downstream lithium iron phosphate industry was still in a loss - making state, with a loss of 2,259 yuan per ton as of January 23, a 29 - yuan per - ton decrease compared to last week [4][49][54]. 3.5 Inventory - As of January 22, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 tons, a 783 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 19,834 tons, a 107 - ton increase compared to last week. The total inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased, with a total inventory of 29,299 tons as of January 23, a 1,487 - ton decrease compared to last week. However, the inventory of the ternary material industry increased [33][36][38]. 3.6 Market Price - As of January 23, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 closed at 181,520 yuan per ton, a 24.2% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan per ton, an 8% increase compared to last week. Most lithium - related products' prices increased, such as lithium iron phosphate, whose storage - type price increased by 5.73% and power - type price increased by 5.35% [7][6]. 3.7 Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate futures and spot price basis was generally stable. The lithium carbonate main contract is expected to remain strong under the drive of continuous supply disturbances and resilient demand, as the supply is expected to remain tight and the downstream demand for restocking is strong [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery industries marks a significant turning point in the sector, transitioning from "universal subsidies" to "high-quality guidance" in China's new energy industry support logic [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy adjustment reflects a dual embodiment of national industrial development strategy and optimization of fiscal resource allocation, as the export tax rebate system has supported the rapid establishment of a leading global photovoltaic and lithium battery industry chain since 2013 [1] - China's global production share of photovoltaic polysilicon, battery cells, and modules exceeds 85%, with leading lithium battery companies holding nearly 70% of the global market share, indicating a shift in the environment for high export tax rebates [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The adjustment directly addresses the core issue of "internal competition externalization," where the increase in volume and decrease in price of photovoltaic products have led to a situation where domestic fiscal subsidies are used to compete in overseas markets, resulting in profit loss for companies and increased international trade friction [2] - The policy aims to cut reliance on low-price competition, forcing the industry to return to value-based competition, which is a necessary choice for building a healthy industrial ecosystem [2] Group 3: Short-term Effects - In the short term, the 2-3 month rebate window has triggered a noticeable "export rush," with some previously halted photovoltaic companies resuming production and battery companies accelerating order deliveries, leading to a potential increase in demand for upstream raw materials like lithium carbonate [2] - However, there is a risk of a phase of demand decline following the "export rush," particularly in the mid and downstream segments of the photovoltaic industry, where competition pressure may intensify due to temporary overcapacity [2] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The policy is expected to drive three structural changes in the industry: 1. The competition logic will shift from "price competition" to "capability competition," leading to the exit of smaller companies with weak cost control and technology, concentrating resources in leading firms [3] 2. The industrial layout will evolve from "product output" to "global layout," with leading companies accelerating overseas capacity establishment to mitigate trade barriers and cost pressures [3] 3. The development motivation will transition from "policy-driven" to "innovation-driven," as companies increase R&D investments in high-efficiency battery technology, energy storage applications, and green manufacturing [3] Group 5: Industry Transition - The export tax rebate policy adjustment represents a necessary "coming of age" for the new energy industry, which must now rely on core technological strength rather than short-term policy benefits to compete globally [4] - Companies should seize the transitional window to accelerate technological upgrades and global layouts, while the market should focus on the long-term value of industrial structure optimization amidst short-term fluctuations [4]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report highlights the geopolitical shifts impacting asset pricing, particularly focusing on the U.S. involvement in Greenland as a strategic move for national security and resource control [8][9] - The report indicates that the EU's response to U.S. policies is limited due to its economic dependencies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and energy [8] - The analysis suggests a structural change in global asset pricing, with a shift towards hard assets and scarce resources as the new safety net for investments [9] Fixed Income Research - The public fund's convertible bond holdings decreased by 83 billion to 3,083 billion, a decline of 2.6%, which is less than the overall market contraction of 7% [16] - The average return for convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.86%, outperforming other active fund types, indicating a strong performance in a volatile market [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term bonds, with trading activity in this segment becoming notably active [27][28] Industry and Company Insights - The aerospace industry report emphasizes the potential for commercial space ventures, particularly in rocket recovery, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The chemical industry analysis points to a tightening supply-demand situation in the potassium chloride market, with expectations for demand and prices to exceed forecasts in 2026 [3] - The real estate sector commentary reflects a downturn in 2025 but anticipates positive signals in early 2026, suggesting a potential recovery [3] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report indicates a trend of funds shifting from passive to active management, with a notable increase in the allocation to sectors like banking and military [17] - The report highlights the performance of various funds, with a median net value growth of 11.04% for top-performing convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 [18] Market Trends - The macroeconomic weekly report shows a GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with a notable slowdown in Q4 to 4.5%, but signs of recovery are emerging [11] - The report on the short-term pure bond funds indicates a reversal in asset growth, with total assets rising to 1,082.1 billion, reflecting a resilient market despite broader economic challenges [21][22]

Group 1 - Tencent and Baidu announced their Spring Festival red envelope distribution plans, with Tencent distributing 1 billion yuan and Baidu 500 million yuan [1] - The performance of gold mining companies is expected to increase significantly due to rising gold prices, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Hunan Gold announcing substantial earnings growth for 2025 [3][18] - The stock price of Pop Mart rebounded nearly 23% from January 19 to 23, recovering its market value to 294.6 billion HKD after a four-month decline [4][19] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China is shifting its focus on short-term interest rates, with the overnight rate potentially becoming a new benchmark, indicating a clearer approach to monetary policy [5][21] - Beijing's GDP is projected to grow around 5% in 2026, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and developing high-tech industries [6][22] - The IPO signals from three companies in the embodied intelligence sector suggest a potential boom in listings for this industry in 2026 [7][23] Group 3 - The global stock market ended 2025 strongly, with major indices rising over 20%, driven by technology and resource sectors [8][24] - The US dollar index fell nearly 2%, while gold prices surged, nearing 5,000 USD per ounce, marking a significant shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [9][25] - The new regulations on mutual fund performance benchmarks have been officially implemented, providing a practical reference for investors [10][26] Group 4 - The Beijing Stock Exchange saw its new stock subscription funds exceed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating growing investor interest [11][27] - Insurance companies have begun cautiously investing in gold, but overall allocation remains limited due to high prices and the need for careful exploration [12][28] - The international silver price reached a historic high, with a significant increase of 44.38% since the beginning of 2026 [15][31]