Group 1 - A total of 139 listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have received institutional research this week, with the highest frequency in the machinery equipment, electronics, and power equipment industries [1] - The defense and military industry, as well as light manufacturing, have seen an increase in institutional attention [1] - In terms of specific sectors, general equipment, semiconductors, and specialized equipment are the top three areas of institutional focus, with rising interest in optical optoelectronics and chemical pharmaceuticals [2] Group 2 - The companies with the highest number of institutional research visits include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Hai'an Group, Weichai Power, and Jereh Group, each receiving three visits [3] - The top three companies by institutional visit reception volume are Huanxu Electronics, Naipu Mining, and Daikin Heavy Industries, with 113, 113, and 109 visits respectively [5] - The market performance of gold concept stocks has been active this week, with Nankang Group focusing on gold and copper mines and avoiding high-risk greenfield projects [6] Group 3 - Shengda Resources reported that after the official production of the Honglin Mining Caiyuzi copper-gold mine, the output of gold and copper metals will increase, and the production capacity of Jinshan Mining will gradually rise to 480,000 tons per year [7] - The main products of the company's primary mining business include silver-lead concentrate, silver-zinc concentrate, and gold-silver concentrate, with the new copper-gold mixed concentrate being a key product post-production [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term positive trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a focus on low-position investment opportunities [7][12] - The zinc sector is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of "de-globalization," with improving supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [13] - The aluminum sector, particularly the electrolytic aluminum industry, is anticipated to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [14] - In the precious metals sector, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before re-entering positions, despite a long-term bullish outlook for gold [14] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Short-term market volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by ongoing demand and supply constraints in the non-ferrous metals market [12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand due to re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite current domestic construction concerns [13] - The aluminum industry is positioned to gain from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with domestic production capabilities improving [14] - Precious metals are currently experiencing high volatility, and investors are encouraged to wait for a more stable price environment before making new investments [14] 2. Steel Industry - The steel sector is facing a weak fundamental backdrop as it approaches the Chinese New Year, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [15] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, with a notable decrease in consumption [20] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are rising, indicating potential oversupply concerns [22] - Overall steel prices have experienced a slight decline, reflecting broader market trends [31] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [35] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing significant year-on-year growth [39] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown notable declines, while cobalt prices have remained stable [44]

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：羽界之家 来源：雪球 前两天，我经历了一件并不愉快、但让我思考了很久的事情。朋友突然找我，说能不能"帮帮他"。 他说他之前在茅台上割了三次，现在又买了紫金矿业被套牢，内心非常痛苦，完全无法原谅自己。他反复追问我，能不能跟着我投资。 我跟他说， 短期被套是投资里的常态 ，没有人能做到买入就涨、卖出就跌。我也跟他说，我写过很多文章，你如果能看懂、学会，其实就是在"跟 着我投资"。 但他接着说了一句话，让我非常无语，也让我警惕： "有些文章我看不懂。" 他并不是在问问题，而是在反复痛恨自己的投资失误，情绪已经完全失控，甚至说出了一些让我必须立刻拉开边界的话。 我只能明确告诉他： 如果你在一个高频犯错、情绪主导的状态里，还不断放大仓位、放大期待，那结果往往不是"学会了投资"，而是被市场反复惩罚。 二、合格的投资者，永远把风险放在第一位 我很同情他的处境，但 我帮不了他 。不是因为标的，而是因为 他的投资心态本身，就不是任何人能"带"的状态 。 而且，说得直白一点——我们只是萍水相逢，对陌生 ...

在近期黄金价格持续波动、普通投资者犹豫不定的同时，央行对于购金的热情仍不减。最新一期官方储备资产数据显示，人民银行2026年1月末黄金储备报 7419万盎司，为人民银行连续第15个月增持黄金。世界黄金协会近日公布的数据也显示，央行购金仍是2025年全球黄金需求的重要推动力。北京商报记者还 注意到，在此前经历深跌后，国际金价已连续多个交易日在5000美元附近震荡，部分境内黄金ETF的成交额也居高不下，更有产品单日成交额逼近200亿 元。多家国际化机构表示看好黄金，预计价格将在年内达到6000美元/盎司。不过，也有观点指出，没有只涨不跌或只跌不涨的资产。 虽然近期金价持续波动，但投资需求仍不减。世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创历史新 高。2025年，全球央行购金需求依然保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金。尽管全年需求未能突破此前连续三年年均超1000吨的水平，但央行购金仍是2025 年全球黄金需求的重要推动力，为整体需求提供了增量。 回顾来看，黄金价格波动上涨延续至2026年1月。其中，伦敦金现价格在1月单月涨13.01%，并首次站上5000美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran has led to a significant increase in gold prices, with spot gold rising above $4900 per ounce, benefiting the non-ferrous metal sector and related ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) saw a maximum intraday increase of 1.53%, ultimately closing up 0.18%, indicating resilience in the market [1]. - Over 10 billion yuan of main capital has flowed into the non-ferrous metal sector, with Huabao ETF attracting 40.93 million yuan in the previous two days [1]. - Key stocks in the sector include Hunan Gold, which surged over 9%, Shengxin Lithium Energy up over 6%, and Guocheng Mining rising over 5% [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The US-Iran geopolitical situation has intensified, with Iran warning it can easily access US military bases, prompting the US to advise its citizens to leave Iran [3]. - Recent US employment data fell short of expectations, increasing speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Citic Futures, the short-term outlook for precious metals is mixed due to fluctuating investor expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, but pre-holiday stocking demand may support prices [3]. - Guojin Securities highlights significant changes in the fundamentals of non-ferrous metals, with supply, demand, and inventory all undergoing important shifts [3]. - National Securities predicts that the combination of supply-demand mismatch, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades will sustain high profitability in the non-ferrous sector for 3-5 years [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metal sector [4][5]. - It is suggested to allocate 10%-20% of investment portfolios to the non-ferrous metal sector to benefit from potential price increases while diversifying risk [3].

- The report highlights the monthly performance of strong stocks, indicating that despite the adjustment of heavyweight stocks, small-cap stocks provided a hedge, but the overall market profitability was weak, with total market turnover dropping from 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.16 trillion yuan on February 6[6] - The top 20 stocks with the highest gains in February are listed, including sectors such as space photovoltaics, batteries, copper connections, innovative drugs, real estate, and more, with the highest gain reaching 80.52% for *ST立方[6] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the maximum gains in various sectors since the start of the bull market, with telecommunications and metal materials/mining sectors achieving the highest gains of 218% and 217%, respectively, from February 5, 2024, to February 7, 2026[9]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with a shift in investment strategies from long-term allocation to short-term trading, leading institutions to warn of an impending consolidation phase in the coming weeks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The past week saw extreme fluctuations in the precious metals market, with London gold spot prices showing a maximum intraday price difference of around $300 per ounce, and silver experiencing 11 instances of over 5% volatility within seven trading days, resulting in a monthly volatility rate exceeding 100% [2]. - Gold ETFs faced substantial redemptions, with seven ETFs linked to the SGE gold 9999 index shrinking by over 22 billion yuan in total during the week [2][3]. - Speculative positions in COMEX gold futures decreased significantly, with net long positions dropping by 27,983 contracts to 93,438 contracts, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Market Sentiment - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for silver futures seven times since December 2025, with the latest increase on February 5, reflecting heightened volatility and signaling potential market turning points [4]. - Analysts from various institutions have lowered short-term expectations for precious metals, warning investors of potential further sell-offs, particularly in gold and silver [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, supported by limited supply and ongoing increases in central bank gold reserves, with China's official gold reserves rising to 74.19 million ounces as of January 2026 [7]. - Factors such as de-globalization, a weakening dollar, and continuous accumulation of gold by global central banks provide structural support for gold prices in the long run [7].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]

来源：@央视财经微博 【#中国黄金提示理性投资黄金##中国黄金调整回购业务规则#】近日，中国黄金发布公告指出，近期受 多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确定性持续上升。公司提示广大消费者理性看待贵金属市 场波动，提高风险防范意识，理性投资黄金。自2026年2月7日起，在周六、周日及法定节假日等上海黄 金交易所非交易日期间，暂停办理贵金属回购业务。自2026年2月7日起，在业务办理时间内，对回购业 务实施限额管理，包括但不限于单一客户单日累计回购上限、单笔回购总量上限等，并实施预约制。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a decrease in prices, with LME copper down 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton and Shanghai copper down 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton. Supply-side indicators show an increase in copper inventory and a decrease in processing fees, while demand remains stable due to ongoing orders from major clients [1][14] - The aluminum market has seen LME aluminum prices drop by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with domestic aluminum rod inventory increasing. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing has decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] - Gold prices have risen by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is showing strong volatility, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and inflation concerns [3][16] - The rare earth sector is witnessing price increases, particularly in praseodymium and neodymium, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton, reflecting a decline in production and market adjustments. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] - Cobalt prices have decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term due to structural shortages [5][53] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, with an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in processing fees. The operating rate for copper processing is expected to decline as the industry approaches the Chinese New Year [1][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, with an increase in aluminum rod inventory. The overall operating rate for aluminum processing decreased, indicating a mixed demand scenario [2][15] Precious Metals - Gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. The market is experiencing strong volatility [3][16] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium increased, with exports showing signs of recovery. The report suggests a positive outlook for demand and pricing in this sector [4][35] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased significantly, supported by tight supply conditions and strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. The report indicates a bullish outlook for tungsten prices [4][38] Lithium - Lithium prices decreased, with carbonate lithium averaging ¥148,000 per ton. The report notes a potential turning point in the lithium market [4][52] Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, with market conditions remaining stable but facing supply concerns. The report anticipates upward pressure on prices in the long term [5][53]