智通财经APP获悉，周二，黄金概念股普涨，AngloGold Ashanti(AU.US)涨逾2%，科尔黛伦矿业 (CDE.US)、哈莫尼黄金(HMY.US)、Barrick Mining(B.US)涨逾1%。消息面上，1月13日盘中，现货黄金 触及每盎司4631.34美元的历史新高。世界黄金协会表示，从技术角度来看，黄金当前尚未被超买，只 有当金价突破4770美元/盎司时，才会进入显著超买区间。道富投资管理公司策略师在报告中指出，基 于近期的价格动能与地缘政治动态，现货黄金今年突破5000美元/盎司的概率现已超过30%。 ...

Group 1 - The company, China Gold, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 286 million to 368 million yuan for the year 2025, representing a decrease of about 450 million to 532 million yuan compared to the previous year, which is a year-on-year decline of 55% to 65% [1] - The primary reasons for the decline in net profit include impacts from the gold market and new policies, which have affected sales of both investment and consumer gold products, leading to reduced foot traffic in retail stores and temporary sales pressure [1] - Additionally, the company's gold leasing business is impacted by different accounting standards and measurement methods applied to assets and liabilities, with the speed of gold price increases outpacing inventory turnover, resulting in a temporary negative impact on profit from fair value changes [1] Group 2 - The industry is experiencing challenges, with some companies in the solar energy sector rushing to export, while others face difficulties due to surging raw material costs, such as silver, leading to complicated decision-making processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Gold (600916.SH) expects a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 286 million to 368 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 55% to 65% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The primary reason for the decline in net profit is attributed to the impact of the gold market and new policies, which have affected both investment and consumer gold product sales [1] - There has been a noticeable reduction in customer traffic at retail stores, leading to temporary sales pressure for the company [1] - The company's gold leasing business is facing challenges due to different accounting standards and measurement methods applied to assets and liabilities, resulting in a negative impact on profit from fair value changes [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The rapid increase in gold prices has outpaced inventory turnover rates, contributing to the temporary negative effects on the company's profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a range of 286 million to 368 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 55% to 65% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The primary reason for the decline in net profit is attributed to the impact of the gold market and new policies, which have adversely affected sales of both investment and consumer gold products [1] - There has been a reduction in customer traffic at retail stores, leading to temporary sales pressure for the company [1] - The company's gold leasing business is facing challenges due to the application of different accounting standards and measurement methods on the asset and liability sides of the financial statements [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The rapid increase in gold prices has outpaced the turnover speed of inventory, resulting in a temporary negative impact on profit from fair value changes [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced a correction after continuous growth, while the Hong Kong stock market showed signs of catching up, opening with a gap and closing up 0.90% with a trading volume of HKD 315.2 billion [1] - The AI sector is gaining significant attention, with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen series models achieving over 700 million downloads, making it the highest downloaded open-source AI series on the Hugging Face platform [1] - Concerns remain in the market due to geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S. urging citizens to leave Iran, which has affected investor sentiment [1] AI Sector - Several domestic AI companies, including MiniMax and Zhipu AI, have recently gone public in Hong Kong, attracting market interest, with the latest listing of Zhaoyi Innovation seeing a rise of over 40% [2] - Despite recent adjustments in the AI sector, the overall interest in high-tech companies remains strong [2] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - Merck's CEO indicated plans for aggressive acquisitions to strengthen its innovative drug pipeline before the expiration of the patent for Keytruda in 2028, which is positive news for Chinese innovative drug companies [3] - WuXi Biologics reported record high upfront and total payment amounts for research services, with potential milestone payments exceeding USD 4 billion, leading to a positive outlook for CXO companies [3] Commercial Aerospace - A number of companies in the commercial aerospace sector issued risk warnings, indicating that their aerospace business constitutes a minimal portion of their operations, with most being less than 1% [2] - Regulatory efforts appear to be aimed at cooling down the commercial aerospace hype, as evidenced by a nearly 10% drop in shares of Goldwind Technology [2] Renewable Energy and Storage - The domestic energy storage market saw a significant increase in bidding volume, with a year-on-year growth of 61% in new bidding capacity [5] - Companies like Guofeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have performed well, driven by market expectations for increased demand in the short term due to policy changes regarding export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products [4] Gold and Mining - Zijin Mining International's stock rose over 7% as gold prices reached new highs, supported by rising risk aversion among investors [7] - The company has a significant amount of gold resources and a low average acquisition cost for gold mines, which positions it favorably for future growth [8] - The company’s gold production is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% through 2025-2027, driven by both internal growth and acquisitions [8]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively adjusted, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1% and the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 49.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][9]. - A-share market has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with abundant liquidity and record-high trading volumes. Investor optimism for the first half of 2026 is supported by frequent catalysts in the technology sector, including IPOs in AI and semiconductors, and innovations in AI applications [10]. Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector led the gains today, with the Innovation Drug ETF (517110) rising by 2.69% and the Biopharmaceutical ETF (512290) increasing by 1.57%. This is attributed to several overseas innovative drug collaborations and catalysts [13][14]. - AI healthcare is experiencing global catalysts, with OpenAI integrating health dialogue features into ChatGPT, enhancing user access to health data [14]. Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices in London surpassed $4,600 per ounce, with Citigroup raising its 0-3 month target price to $5,000 per ounce. State Street indicated a greater than 30% chance of gold hitting this target this year [11]. - Geopolitical risks have increased, driving up gold's risk premium. The U.S. administration is discussing potential interventions in Iran, which could escalate conflicts in the Middle East [12][11]. Electricity and Infrastructure - The electricity sector showed relative strength, driven by the upcoming National Grid meetings and ongoing power supply issues in North America. The approval of high-voltage direct current projects has accelerated since mid-2025, indicating strong demand for electricity infrastructure [15][6]. - The global energy transition is creating a need for enhanced electricity grid construction to support renewable energy integration, particularly in underdeveloped regions [15]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider the China Securities A500 ETF (159338) for broad exposure to leading companies across various sectors, and to adopt a "dumbbell" strategy focusing on technology and dividends to balance growth and volatility [10]. - For gold investments, options include direct investment in physical gold and gold ETFs that cover the entire industry chain [12]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend due to ample liquidity and high demand in the AI sector. However, a potential phase of correction may occur following rapid market gains [10]. - The pharmaceutical sector's global competitiveness is strengthening, with upcoming earnings announcements from innovative drug companies anticipated to act as catalysts [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on January 13, with the ChiNext index dropping nearly 2%, while over 900 out of 1300 ETFs fell. However, ETFs focused on defensive sectors like electric power, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas, and gold saw gains, with several products rising over 2% [1][3]. ETF Market Performance - The overall net inflow in the ETF market was approximately 1.16 billion yuan on January 12, a significant decrease from about 16.4 billion yuan on January 9. The media, satellite aerospace, software, non-ferrous metals, and AI sectors attracted substantial net inflows, with the media ETF (512980) leading at 2.32 billion yuan [2][6]. - On January 13, ETFs focused on electric power, oil and gas, and gold sectors showed resilience against the market downturn, with the top 20 gaining ETFs primarily concentrated in these areas. The electric power ETF (561380) surged by 7.37% due to a last-minute rally, while the oil and gas ETFs also performed well, with two tracking the China Securities Oil and Gas Resources Index rising over 2% [3][4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The gold sector ETFs all recorded gains, particularly those linked to the China Securities Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index, with all six ETFs rising over 2%. In the pharmaceutical sector, ETFs focusing on Hong Kong medical, innovative drugs, and biomedicine showed strong performance, with the Hong Kong medical ETF (159137) rising by 3.44% [4]. - Conversely, several popular sector ETFs, particularly in AI and aerospace, faced significant declines, with many dropping over 8%. The leading AI ETF, Morgan's ChiNext AI ETF, saw a sharp drop of over 11% after a trading halt due to price premiums [5]. Fund Flows and Trends - Seven ETFs attracted over 1 billion yuan in net inflows, primarily in sectors like media, satellite aerospace, software, and non-ferrous metals, as well as one small-cap broad-based index ETF. The media ETF (512980) alone garnered over 2 billion yuan in net inflows on January 12 [6][7]. - Non-equity ETFs, including money market and bond funds, experienced significant net outflows, with some non-equity ETFs seeing outflows exceeding 10 billion yuan since the beginning of the year. Despite the overall upward trend in the equity market, the ETF market faced a net outflow of over 55 billion yuan year-to-date [8]. Industry Developments - 华夏基金 became the first public fund company in China to surpass 1 trillion yuan in ETF management scale, reaching 1,016.42 billion yuan as of January 12. The rapid growth of ETFs in China is notable, with the time taken to reach successive trillion yuan milestones decreasing significantly [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's metal and mining sector has shown strong performance since the beginning of 2026, continuing the upward trend from 2025, with significant contributions from gold and copper stocks [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the Hong Kong metal and mining sector index rose by 1.16%, closing at 3712.044 points [1][2]. - Leading stocks in the sector, such as Zijin Mining, China Gold International, Shandong Gold, and Jiangxi Copper, have seen notable price increases, with Zijin Mining up 2.39% to HKD 40.22 and China Gold International up 7.36% to HKD 179.40 [1][2]. Group 2: Gold and Copper Market Dynamics - Gold stocks are benefiting from their safe-haven status and expectations of interest rate cuts, while copper stocks are gaining from supply shortages and increased industrial demand [5][6]. - On January 12, 2026, spot gold prices reached a historical high of USD 4630.21 per ounce, contributing to the rise in Hong Kong gold stocks [5][6]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Supply-Demand Factors - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from USD 11,525 per ton to USD 12,750 per ton, citing low copper inventories outside the U.S. [6]. - The copper market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with projections indicating a global refined copper production of 26.9 million tons in 2026, leading to a market shortfall of 308,000 tons [8]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The strong performance of mining stocks is attributed to rising geopolitical risks, imbalances in commodity supply and demand, and shifts in global monetary policy [7][8]. - Increased geopolitical tensions and trade issues are driving up demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while industrial metals are supported by robust demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [8][9].

在邓志坚看来，2026年，科技与医疗健康两大赛道将凭借其在全球AI应用与民生需求中的核心驱动地位，仍是资产布局的 关键锚点。与此同时，投资级债券与黄金等传统避险资产的配置价值不容忽视，其在波动环境下的风险缓释作用，将有效增强 投资组合的整体抗风险韧性。 在集中度方面，当前美股前五大科技股市值占美股总市值比重达28%，高于2000年的21%，但当前科技企业的平均股权回 报率远高于过往。盈利端的坚实支撑使得投资者即便面对股价高位，也未出现恐慌性抛售，这也进一步印证了科技板块的配置 价值。 本报记者 杨洁 "2026年，我们坚持看好科技和医疗等具有长期增长趋势的行业之外，我们也建议增持亚洲区优质股、成熟市场投资级别 债券和黄金，以分散成长型资产的风险。而且，在此基础上，我们将更加重视股市对冲策略。"邓志坚说。 1月11日，星展银行举办"2026年一季度投资策略展望"专题活动，星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓志坚在会上解读了 新一年全球市场脉动，并剖析投资机遇与挑战。 （编辑 张昕） "回顾2025年，我们一直在强调世界格局正在转变。当面对挑战的时候，我们必须要坚持投资于环球发展中最关键的行业 和优质的核心资产。因为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Gold, anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to adverse market conditions affecting both investment and consumer gold product sales [1] Financial Projections - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be between 286.40 million yuan and 368.20 million yuan, representing a decrease of 45.02 million yuan to 53.20 million yuan compared to the previous year, which translates to a year-on-year decline of 55.00% to 65.00% [1] - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 246.40 million yuan and 328.20 million yuan, reflecting a reduction of 46.16 million yuan to 54.34 million yuan year-on-year, equating to a decrease of 58.44% to 68.80% [1] Market Impact - The decline in net profit is attributed to a combination of factors, including the impact of the gold market and new policies, which have adversely affected sales of both investment and consumer gold products [1] - There has been a noticeable decrease in customer traffic at retail stores, leading to temporary sales pressure for the company [1] Accounting and Financial Reporting - The company's gold leasing business is affected by different accounting standards and measurement methods applied to assets and liabilities on the financial statements [1] - The rapid increase in gold prices has outpaced inventory turnover, resulting in a temporary negative impact on profit due to fair value changes [1]