Group 1: Resource Expansion and Management - The company emphasizes resource expansion as a long-term strategic goal, focusing on various metal resources, particularly tin [2][3][11]. - Future plans include enhancing resource exploration in the Karafang mining area and improving the utilization of tailings resources to ensure sustainable development [2][3][11]. - The company aims to increase its resource security and sustainable development capabilities through both internal and external resource expansion efforts [2][3][11]. Group 2: Digital Transformation and Technological Innovation - The company is committed to integrating digital technologies into its tin smelting and production processes to enhance operational efficiency and management effectiveness [3][4]. - Future initiatives will focus on utilizing big data and artificial intelligence for precise production control and intelligent equipment maintenance [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning - The company acknowledges the increasing strategic importance of tin resources and anticipates that the value of tin will continue to rise due to its scarcity [5][10]. - The company is monitoring the recovery of tin production in Southeast Asia, which may alleviate current supply constraints and stabilize the tin supply chain [5][10]. - The company is exploring potential overseas resource cooperation projects, particularly in politically stable regions with rich resources [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Engagement - The company reported a 32.76% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising metal prices and effective cost control measures [9][12]. - The company is currently implementing a share repurchase plan, which is treated as a cash dividend under regulatory guidelines [7][12]. - Dividend decisions will be based on the company's operational performance and future development plans [6][7]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges related to declining tin ore grades and is working to improve recovery rates through technological advancements [3][4]. - The company is also addressing concerns regarding low profit margins in its copper business, which are influenced by raw material costs and market conditions [10][12]. - The company is committed to maintaining its strategic role in ensuring national security for tin and indium resources while enhancing its competitive position in the industry [10][12].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market indices showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.94% to 25,829.91 points, the Tech Index increasing by 3.14% to 5,825.09 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.85% to 9,248 points [2] - The Tech Index reached an intraday high of 5,847.95 points, marking the highest level since March 21 [4] Tech Sector Insights - Zheshang Securities noted that the Hang Seng Tech Index had lagged in the current market rally, impacted by the "takeout war" affecting profit expectations and the ongoing weakness of the Hong Kong dollar leading to liquidity tightening by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [6] - The liquidity in Hong Kong's banking system has returned to normal levels, with limited room for further tightening, and the Hong Kong dollar has appreciated significantly [6] - The dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting may enhance liquidity expectations for Hong Kong stocks, suggesting potential for a rebound in the Hang Seng Tech Index [6] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks surged following the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, with Zijin Mining rising by 6.28%, Lingbao Gold by 5.21%, and China Gold International by 4.95% [8] - Market expectations for a September rate cut increased from 75% to 90% after Powell's remarks, which are expected to support gold prices [9] Automotive Sector - NIO led the automotive sector with a significant increase of 15.17%, following the launch of its new ES8 model, which has a starting price of 416,800 yuan [11][12] - Other automotive stocks such as Brilliance China and GAC Group also saw notable gains of 10.34% and 8.45%, respectively [11] Renewable Energy Sector - The photovoltaic sector experienced gains, with GCL-Poly Energy rising by 14.29% after the China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for an end to cut-throat competition [13][14] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks gained traction following policy easing measures in Shanghai, with Vanke rising by 9.86%, Oceanwide Holdings by 6.78%, and Sunac China by 6.58% [15][16] Individual Stock Movements - Dongfeng Group saw a dramatic increase of 54.10% due to its announcement of privatization and delisting plans [17] - Kingstone Mining rose by 14.34% following new regulations on rare earth mining and processing [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance amid the "anti-involution" trend, with a notable increase of 5.7% in the sector index in July 2025, ranking 8th among all industries [17][18] - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms and the government's focus on promoting high-quality development, which is expected to lead to further consolidation and collaboration within the industry [4][38] - The analysis draws parallels between the current "anti-involution" movement and past supply-side reforms, suggesting that the current policies may have a more prolonged impact on the industry [4][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: Anti-Involution and Market Performance - The market in July 2025 was influenced by the "anti-involution" theme, with the non-ferrous metals sector experiencing significant gains [17] - The government has initiated measures to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [17] Section 2: Historical Comparison - The report compares the current "anti-involution" policies with the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2015, noting the different macroeconomic contexts and targets of these policies [20][26] - The non-ferrous metals index ranked first in performance during key policy announcements in 2016, indicating a strong correlation between policy actions and market performance [22] Section 3: Japanese Experience - The report examines Japan's historical approach to anti-involution in the cement industry, highlighting the importance of government intervention and industry consolidation [4][35] - Japan's experience suggests that effective policy measures can lead to improved industry concentration and higher operational efficiency [4][37] Section 4: Market Trends - The report discusses the current market dynamics for key metals such as copper and aluminum, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that supports price stability [41][42] - The analysis also notes the performance of strategic minor metals, which are experiencing a reassessment of their value in the market [41] Section 5: Policy Changes - Recent government initiatives aim to deepen the construction of a unified national market and eliminate "involution-style" competition, which is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [17][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning supply-side reforms with demand-side policies to sustain industry growth [32][38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is influenced by various factors such as Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, which increase the probability of a September interest rate cut, and trade situation changes. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, with some expected to be bullish and others facing supply - demand imbalances and uncertainties [3][6][9] - In the short term, most sectors are expected to have volatile trends, and investors should pay attention to both macro - level policies and industry - specific supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][9] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities and break through key core technologies; a new management method for rare earths is released; the photovoltaic industry association advocates against malicious competition; Fed Chair Powell shows a dovish stance on interest rates [2] - **Trading Logic**: After continuous recent rises, the market may experience intensified short - term fluctuations, but the overall strategy is to buy on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month. On Friday, the central bank conducted 361.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 123.2 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to remain loose. Interest rates may have downward space, but the stock - bond seesaw effect should be noted, and the bond market may enter a short - term shock pattern [5] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold and silver prices fell. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6] - **Outlook**: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting indicates the start of a new interest rate cut cycle. The market prices in a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and further cuts in December. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose. Inventory in the three major exchanges decreased by 0.04 million tons. The spot import window opened, and the premium for foreign copper increased. The discount of LME's Cash/3M narrowed, and the domestic spot had a premium over futures [9] - **Outlook**: With the Fed's dovish stance increasing the probability of a September rate cut, and considering the tight supply of copper raw materials and the approaching peak season, copper prices are expected to rise gradually [9] Aluminum - **Market**: Fed Chair's dovish remarks and the cancellation of some tariffs led to a strong performance of aluminum prices. The weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee for aluminum rods declined [10] - **Outlook**: With the increasing expectation of a September rate cut and the approaching peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [10] Zinc - **Market**: On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, production restrictions are imposed in Tianjin [11] - **Outlook**: The zinc mine inventory is rising, and the import of zinc concentrate is increasing. Although the mid - term oversupply situation remains, the dovish remarks of the Fed strengthen the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [11][12] Lead - **Market**: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly. Near the National Day parade, recycling and production of lead are affected [13] - **Outlook**: The supply of lead is increasing marginally, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is still a downward risk in the medium term due to terminal consumption pressure [13] Nickel - **Market**: Last week, nickel prices continued to fluctuate. The price of nickel ore is weak due to the release of quotas and weak demand. The supply of nickel intermediate products is tight, and the coefficient price has increased slightly [14] - **Outlook**: Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply of refined nickel is still in surplus, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [14] Tin - **Market**: Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin is low due to the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand is weak due to the sluggish downstream industries. The social inventory decreased significantly last week [15][16] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of tin is weak, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with reference price ranges provided [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2511 contract also decreased significantly. The oversupply sentiment has cooled down, and the support level for lithium prices has increased [17] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to overseas supply and domestic supply gaps. The reference price range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2511 contract is provided [17] Alumina - **Market**: On August 22, the alumina index rose. The spot price in Shandong had a premium over the 09 contract. The overseas price remained stable, and the import window was closed. The futures warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Outlook**: With continuous supply disturbances in domestic and overseas ore markets and the Fed's dovish stance, the downward space for alumina futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [18] Stainless Steel - **Market**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract declined. The spot price in Foshan remained stable, while that in Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the futures inventory decreased. The social inventory increased [19][20] - **Outlook**: Although low - priced resources impact the spot price, steel mills have the intention to support prices, and stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: On Friday, the AD2511 contract rose. The weighted contract's open interest decreased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [21] - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and the cost is strongly supported, casting aluminum alloy prices may continue to rise, but the large difference between futures and spot prices will limit the upward space [21] Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: On Friday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The registered warehouse receipts of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The spot prices of both decreased [23] - **Outlook**: The overall demand for steel products is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the steel mill's profit is shrinking. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [24] Iron Ore - **Market**: On Friday, the main contract of iron ore declined slightly. The overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline, and the port inventory increased slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply pressure is not significant, but the iron - water increase may be limited due to weak terminal demand. With the Fed's dovish stance, iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of Tangshan's production restrictions [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained stable. The total inventory of glass increased slightly, and the inventory days increased. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but the long - term trend depends on policy and demand changes [27] - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price rose slightly. The supply decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: On August 22, the manganese - silicon main contract declined slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose slightly. After Powell's dovish speech, the commodity market rebounded, and there is a risk of a follow - up rise in the ferroalloy market [29] - **Outlook**: Manganese - silicon's price has broken through the support line, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. Ferrosilicon's price is in a narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the support level [29][30] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market**: On Friday, the industrial - silicon futures main contract rose. The spot prices remained stable. Although the price has rebounded, the problem of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand remains. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited [32][33] - **Outlook**: With the Fed's dovish stance, industrial - silicon prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to potential industry policies [33] - **Polysilicon Market**: On Friday, the polysilicon futures main contract declined slightly. The spot prices remained stable. The production is increasing, and the warehouse receipts are rising rapidly. There are positive feedback effects in the industrial chain, and the price is expected to be volatile [34] - **Outlook**: In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, polysilicon prices are resilient and are expected to maintain high volatility. Attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on the price [34] Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU first declined and then rebounded. The long - and short - term views on rubber prices differ. The long - term view is based on seasonal expectations and demand improvement, while the short - term view is based on weak demand [36][37] - **Outlook**: The opening rate of all - steel tires increased. The rubber price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 positions is suggested [38][40] Crude Oil - **Market**: As of Friday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all rose. The gasoline, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories in Europe decreased, while the diesel and aviation kerosene inventories increased [41] - **Outlook**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and not to chase the price [42] Methanol - **Market**: On August 22, the 01 contract of methanol declined. The coal price rose, the cost increased, and the domestic production started to increase. The overseas production is at a medium - high level, and imports are expected to increase rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is weak, and the inventory is rising [43] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity in the inter - month spread when supply and demand improve [43] Urea - **Market**: On August 22, the 01 contract of urea declined. The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is weak, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export is advancing, and the port inventory is rising [44][45] - **Outlook**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - and - demand situation. It is recommended to buy on dips considering the rising coal price and low production profit [45] Styrene - **Market**: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The macro - environment is positive, and the cost is supported. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is rising, and the demand is improving [46] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and styrene prices may rebound after the inventory reaches a turning point [46] PVC - **Market**: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide increased, and the overall production start - up rate decreased. The demand is weak, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [48] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see as the price follows the black - building materials market [48] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG01 contract rose. The supply increased, and the downstream load also increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. The profit of different production methods varies, and the cost of ethylene remained stable while the coal price rose [49][50] - **Outlook**: Although the downstream demand is recovering from the off - season, the supply is still excessive. The inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The downstream and terminal start - up rates improved, and the processing fee increased [51] - **Outlook**: The PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair, and it is recommended to follow PX and buy on dips considering the improvement in the downstream peak season [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX11 contract rose. The domestic and Asian production start - up rates increased. The PTA production start - up rate decreased due to unexpected maintenance. The import increased, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Outlook**: With high PX production and low PTA production, PX is expected to maintain low inventory. It is recommended to follow crude oil and buy on dips considering the improving downstream situation [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The futures price of PE rose. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. The cost is supported, the inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stock up [53] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and PE prices are expected to rise gradually [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The futures price of PP declined. The profit of Shandong refineries rebounded, and the production start - up rate may increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [55] - **Outlook**: In the context of weak supply and demand, it is recommended to buy the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices were stable with some local increases. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while southern farmers are waiting and seeing [57] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is excessive, but policies may support prices. The far - month contracts are recommended to be in a reverse - spread strategy [57] Eggs - **Market**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable with some local increases. The supply is sufficient, especially for small and medium - sized eggs. The demand is slow, but it may improve later [58] - **Outlook**: The negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. It is recommended to reduce short positions or wait for a rebound to short [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: On Friday night, US soybeans rose slightly. The cost of soybean imports decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose slightly over the weekend, and the trading volume was average while the pickup was good [59] - **Outlook**: The cost of soybean imports is expected to be stable. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to buy on dips within the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure and profit at high prices [60] Edible Oils - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil exports increased in August, and the production also increased slightly. The EPA approved some exemptions for small - scale refineries. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase [61] - **Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy, the limited production potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and low inventories support the price of edible oils. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter if the demand and production remain stable [63] Sugar - **Market**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased [64] - **Outlook**: With increasing production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere, and increasing domestic imports, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64] Cotton - **Market**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price increased slightly. The downstream start - up rates increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65] - **Outlook**: The Fed's dovish stance is positive for the commodity market. Considering the approaching peak season and low inventory, Zhengzhou cotton prices may have upward momentum in the short term [66]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Global central bank meeting, Powell's dovish speech, market's Fed rate - cut expectation heats up, boosting risk appetite and affecting multiple asset prices [13][17][58] - Multiple commodities are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events, showing different trends and investment opportunities [26][32][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and Powell hints at a September rate cut [12][13] - Gold price rose about 1% on Friday. Market priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. But current positives can't break gold out of the consolidation [13] - Investment advice: Gold price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Iran's supreme leader rules out direct talks with the US, and the US vice - president says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [15][16] - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting is dovish. The Fed's policy focus shifts to the labor market, and the US dollar index trends weaker [17] - Investment advice: The US dollar trends weaker [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell signals a rate cut, and Canada cancels some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [19][20] - Market sentiment turns cautious initially, then risk appetite recovers after Powell's dovish speech. US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [21] - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to rate - cut expectations. Pay attention to Nvidia's earnings report and July PCE data next week [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Chinese leaders attend the SCO Summit - related events, and the State Council studies measures to release sports consumption potential [22][23] - A - shares are strong with increasing trading volume, showing a short - term bullish pattern. But beware of the test of mid - year reports [24] - Investment advice: Suggest balanced long positions in stock index futures [25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity is 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [26] - Coal price ends its rising trend and enters a weak consolidation. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan in the future [26][27] - Investment advice: Coal price may decline slightly with the season. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [27] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Guangxi acquires 20,000 existing commercial housing units [28] - Iron ore price continues to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are slightly weak, and the market sentiment is divided. It is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern [28][29] - Investment advice: Iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The downside is limited, and it is expected to remain in a consolidation pattern [29] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The WTO supports Indonesia in the biodiesel tariff dispute, and the Trump administration makes decisions on SRE applications [30][31] - The negative impact of SRE is less than expected, and US soybean oil price rebounds. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate [32] - Investment advice: After last week's adjustment, US biofuel policies drive up US soybean oil price. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate, with palm oil having the largest increase [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton mills destock, Brazil's cotton exports reach a record high, and US cotton export contracts are poor [33][34][35] - US cotton export contracts are still weak, and ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [35][36] - Investment advice: ICE cotton price has limited upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Pay continuous attention to demand [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory decreases, a large - scale sugar shipment is made to China, and sugar production estimates are lowered [37][38][40] - International sugar production may be lower than expected, supporting sugar price. Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be long - entry opportunities on dips [41][42] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar price has limited downside and is expected to fluctuate. Wait for long - entry opportunities on dips for the January contract [42] 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel mills' iron - making capacity utilization and iron - water output are at a certain level, and the automobile industry's inventory decreases [43][44] - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory, and steel price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to actual demand release in mid - to late September [44][45] - Investment advice: Steel price fluctuates. Wait for market dips [46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Pro Farmer predicts US soybean yield [47][48] - CBOT soybean price rises due to demand. China's soybean imports in Q4 to next Q1 affect soybean meal supply. Long positions on dips are recommended [49] - Investment advice: Long soybean meal on dips but don't chase highs. Pay continuous attention to Sino - US relations [49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Cassava starch port inventory decreases slightly, and the price difference with corn starch widens slightly [50][51] - Corn starch inventory pressure is high, and the CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [51][52][53] - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [53] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn price in North China is weakening, and the market is bearish as new grain approaches [54] - Corn futures price may fluctuate widely around 2150. Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads [54] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads. Pay attention to weather and policies [54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore plans to produce 1 million tons of copper in Argentina, and Freeport Indonesia will accelerate copper concentrate exports [55][56] - Powell's dovish speech supports copper price. Copper price is expected to turn to a fluctuating - strong pattern in the short - term [58][59] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term long - biased strategy for copper futures. Take profits on domestic - foreign reverse spreads and turn to observation [59] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The "capacity clearance" document is confirmed, and a phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry meeting is held [60] - Short - term de - stocking provides support, and there are opportunities for long positions on dips and positive spreads [61] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips and positive spreads [61] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry advocates fair competition, and Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic module procurement is bid [62][64] - Component prices are expected to rise, driving up upstream prices. Polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term [65][66] - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for polysilicon futures. Consider 11 - 12 reverse spreads around - 2000 yuan/ton [66] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of industrial silicon's main production areas increases [67] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are slightly weakening. Its price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilan Lithium [69] - Powell's dovish speech may boost nickel price in the short - term. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs [70][71] - Investment advice: Short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs for nickel [71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead shows a discount, and lead's supply - demand is weak [72] - Lead price has cost support, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [72][73] - Investment advice: Observe in the short - term for lead [73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc shows a discount, and a Peruvian zinc mine resumes operation [74] - Zinc price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] - Investment advice: Observe for zinc in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EUA's closing price is 72.53 euros/ton, and carbon price is affected by energy and geopolitics [76] - EU carbon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [76][77] - Investment advice: EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count decreases [78] - Oil price rises slightly and is expected to fluctuate in a range, waiting for new drivers [78][79] - Investment advice: Oil price will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [79] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [80][81] - Caustic soda price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] - Investment advice: The 9.3 military parade may disrupt supply. The spot price may have limited upside. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of pulp in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [82][84] - Pulp price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85] - Investment advice: Pulp price will fluctuate in the short - term [85] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC powder price is narrowly sorted, with weak downstream procurement and some good export orders [86] - PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] - Investment advice: PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes change little, and domestic prices increase [88][89] - Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Its price follows polyester raw materials [89] - Investment advice: Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Pay attention to the pressure from device restart and new capacity [89] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash market in Shahe fluctuates, with prices slightly rising and stable basis [90] - Soda ash price rises slightly, with stable fundamentals. Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs [90] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs for soda ash. Pay attention to supply disturbances [90] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass price in Shahe is stable, with different factory shipment situations [91] - Glass price rises slightly. Be cautious with single - side operations and focus on arbitrage [92] - Investment advice: Be cautious with single - side operations for float glass. Focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy when the spread widens [92] 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A shipping company halts a new - shipbuilding plan due to high costs [93] - SCFI index declines. Container freight rate is expected to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Look for short - entry opportunities on highs [93][94] - Investment advice: Look for short - entry opportunities on highs for container freight rate futures. The October contract tests the 1300 support level [94]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - The overall non - ferrous commodities show signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened. Despite potential consumption growth, the supply pressure remains, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in China. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.33 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, up 80 yuan, with a premium of -70 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan, with a premium of -60 yuan per ton [1]. - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan per ton, closed at 22,240 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 85,851 lots, and the open interest was 110,426 lots. The intraday high was 22,330 yuan per ton, and the low was 22,230 yuan per ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Trend**: Non - ferrous commodities are showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened [4]. - **Cost**: The imported TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, maintaining an upward trend [4]. - **Smelting**: The smelting profit, including by - product revenue, remains above 1,000 yuan per ton, so smelting enthusiasm persists, and the current and expected supply - side pressure remains unchanged [4]. - **Consumption**: Consumption was strong during the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season. However, even if the peak season is strong, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in China, and the social inventory exceeds the historical average. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data in August showed mixed results. The manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded unexpectedly, but the initial jobless claims increased more than expected. The inflation pressure rose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products had different trends. For example, the price of动力煤was expected to be stable in the short - term, while the price of豆粕was affected by the US harvest and China's purchase policy [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The services PMI and the composite PMI also showed good performance [12]. - The Fed's Hammack indicated that the FOMC might not cut interest rates in September. The gold price fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price remained in a range - bound state [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The proportion of new energy increased significantly [15]. - A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan might be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate long positions in various stock indexes evenly [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU took further measures to finalize the trade agreement, including plans to reduce US tariffs on European cars [19]. - The Atlanta Fed President still expected one interest rate cut this year and paid attention to the labor market [20]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since 2022, which supported the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short - term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The services PMI also performed well [23]. - The Fed's Collins said that if the labor market deteriorated, it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short - term. Hammack did not support an interest rate cut in September [24][25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction, as the fundamental data remains resilient [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 253 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on August 21, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [27]. - Investment advice: If the short - term increase is high, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - hedging strategy [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of the week ending August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations [29]. - The Pro Farmer field inspection indicated a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans. The market focused on whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [30]. - Investment advice: The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US field inspection results and China's purchase policy [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian importers started to buy palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala at a large discount [31]. - The Trump administration was expected to make a ruling on the exemption of small refineries [32]. - The palm oil export volume in Indonesia increased in June, and the inventory decreased slightly [33]. - Investment advice: After the adjustment, the US biodiesel policy might boost the price of the oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang were about to enter the sugar - increasing period. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose slightly [34][35]. - Investment advice: Due to the uncertainty of the new - season production, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the pre - festival stocking in the main sales areas [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises were affected by equipment maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased slightly [36]. - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread was expected to strengthen when the new - season production was determined [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 250,700 tons week - on - week as of August 21. The rebar inventory increased significantly [38]. - Investment advice: The steel price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait for the market to correct [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processed corn decreased, and the consumption also decreased [40]. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts of corn futures were expected to decline. Hold short positions and pay attention to the weather [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social electricity consumption in July increased by 8.6% year - on - year [42]. - Investment advice: The peak of the coal price was expected to have passed, and the price was expected to be stable in the short - term [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The import of recycled steel raw materials in July was 21,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03% [44]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In July, China's cotton product export volume increased, but the export value decreased [45]. - India temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [46]. - The Indian Cotton Association expected that the cotton production in 2025/26 would increase despite the decrease in the planting area [47]. - Investment advice: Before the new cotton was listed in China, the supply was tight, which supported the price in the short - term. However, the price was expected to be under pressure in the fourth quarter [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Trump reiterated that the US would not approve new photovoltaic or wind power projects [50]. - Investment advice: The futures price of polysilicon had strong support at 49,000 yuan/ton. It was recommended to take a bullish view on pull - backs and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity [51][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export volume of primary polysiloxane in July decreased [53]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $39.48/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $9.33/ton. The domestic zinc inventory decreased [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium project in Africa made a major breakthrough [59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips and conduct positive arbitrage [60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Codelco in Chile lowered its 2025 copper production guidance [61]. - The S3 expansion project of First Quantum Minerals in Zambia was put into operation [62]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons on August 21 [64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On August 21, the closing price of CEA was 70.92 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PG price was expected to be strong in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. Trump's statement on not approving new wind and photovoltaic projects might affect the demand for natural gas [74]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of August 21, the inventory of urea at Chinese ports increased by 37,000 tons week - on - week [76]. - Investment advice: The urea price was expected to be in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the new Indian tender and domestic demand [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - Two PTA plants in South China were planned to be shut down for maintenance [77]. - Investment advice: The PTA price was expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 21, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted locally [80]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price was expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the price [81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market continued to be weak [82]. - Investment advice: The pulp price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly stronger [86]. - Investment advice: The PVC price was expected to be weak in the short - term due to India's anti - dumping ruling [86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - An East China styrene plant with a capacity of 320,000 tons/year was planned to be shut down for maintenance in September [87]. - Investment advice: The styrene price was expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand were expected to be balanced in September, but there was a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories mostly increased [89]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new plant commissioning in late August and September [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of August 21, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.9108 million tons, with a 0.71% increase [92]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to short the soda ash price on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions [92]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On August 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased [93]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [94]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The global container ship order volume reached a record high, and the over - supply of shipping capacity was expected to last until 2029 [95]. - Investment advice: The container freight rate was expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [97].

Group 1: Zhongtong Express (中通快递) - Profitability under pressure, adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 26.8% YoY, with a single ticket net profit of 0.21 CNY, down 12 cents YoY [2][7][10] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 11.8 billion CNY, a 10.3% increase YoY, while H1 2025 revenue was 22.7 billion CNY, up 9.8% YoY [7][9] - Market share increased to 19.5% in Q2 2025, with a package volume of 9.85 billion pieces, up 16.5% YoY [9][10] - Capital expenditure for 2025 expected to remain flat or slightly decrease, with H1 2025 capital expenditure at 3.1 billion CNY [9][10] - Mid-term dividend of 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [9][10] Group 2: Yuanda Pharmaceutical (远大医药) - Revenue for H1 2025 was 6.107 billion HKD, a 1.0% increase YoY, with net profit of 1.169 billion HKD, slightly down by 5.9% YoY [3][12] - The nuclear medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 105.5% YoY, contributing significantly to overall growth [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.254 billion, 13.376 billion, and 14.779 billion HKD, with net profits of 2.185 billion, 2.462 billion, and 2.706 billion HKD respectively [14] Group 3: Yuandong Bio (苑东生物) - H1 2025 revenue was 654 million CNY, down 2.3% YoY, with net profit of 137 million CNY, down 6.8% YoY [4][16] - The company is focusing on self-research and strategic investments to accelerate innovation [16][17] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.501 billion, 1.795 billion, and 2.202 billion CNY, with net profits of 282 million, 345 million, and 431 million CNY respectively [18] Group 4: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - H1 2025 revenue reached 13.876 billion CNY, a 204.4% increase YoY, with net profit of 4.574 billion CNY, up 396.5% YoY [19][20] - The company is expanding its global presence, with significant growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions [19][20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.128 billion, 15.332 billion, and 20.295 billion CNY, with substantial YoY growth rates [21] Group 5: Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 28.944 billion CNY, down 14.06% YoY, while net profit increased by 18.63% to 1.463 billion CNY [23][24] - High-end products contributed significantly to profit, with advanced steel materials accounting for 29.77% of total sales [24] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, including a new coke production base in Indonesia [24] Group 6: Huayang Group (华阳集团) - H1 2025 revenue was 5.311 billion CNY, a 26.65% increase YoY, with net profit of 341 million CNY, up 18.98% YoY [26][27] - The automotive electronics and precision die-casting segments are driving growth, with significant new orders from major global clients [26][27] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.71 billion, 15.89 billion, and 19.17 billion CNY, with net profits of 870 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.43 billion CNY respectively [27] Group 7: Shenhuo Co. (神火股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 20.428 billion CNY, up 12.12% YoY, while net profit decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [29][30] - The aluminum business is the main contributor to revenue, while coal business faced significant price declines [30][31] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.41, 2.67, and 2.96 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [31] Group 8: Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) - H1 2025 revenue was 13.558 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.29% YoY, with net profit down 12.85% [33][34] - The gypsum board business is under pressure, while waterproof and paint businesses are showing growth [34][35] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.935 billion, 4.464 billion, and 4.952 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.33, 2.64, and 2.93 CNY [35]

Group 1 - The company, Electric Power Investment Energy, announced the convening of its eighth board meeting on August 20, 2025, to discuss the election of new committee members [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Electric Power Investment Energy is as follows: non-ferrous metal smelting accounts for 53.22%, coal industry 35.45%, coal power and thermal power industry 5.8%, and renewable energy generation industry 5.53% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Electric Power Investment Energy is 44.3 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]