Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of consumer behavior in China, highlighting the shift from basic survival needs to emotional and experiential consumption, driven by economic development and demographic changes [4][5][15]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The concept of "new consumption" has gained traction, with examples like a rising cosmetics brand achieving a valuation exceeding $10 billion within four years of its establishment [3]. - Consumers are increasingly focused on emotional satisfaction and self-fulfillment, moving beyond mere product functionality [4]. - The 95 post-90s generation has become a significant consumer force, with annual spending reaching approximately 8-9 trillion yuan, influencing family purchasing decisions [5]. Group 2: Emotional Consumption Dynamics - Emotional consumption has transitioned from being optional to essential, particularly in the context of the VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) era, where consumers seek to regain a sense of control [15]. - The market for emotional consumption, such as concerts, has seen substantial growth, with the gross merchandise value (GMV) of domestic concerts increasing from 12 billion yuan in 2019 to nearly 45 billion yuan by 2024 [15]. Group 3: Brand Power and Market Dynamics - The success of a consumption model is increasingly dependent on brand power, which encompasses product strength and channel effectiveness [10]. - The shift from traffic dividends to content dividends emphasizes the importance of product quality in gaining market share, as good products can achieve organic growth through word-of-mouth [12]. - The rise of domestic brands reflects a growing confidence in local products, as consumers become more discerning and less willing to pay unreasonable premiums [12]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - New consumption characteristics suggest a naturally "small circle" market, where structural growth can lead to nonlinear expansion if brands successfully break out of their niche [16]. - Assets that can be priced based on emotional value are seen as scarce growth opportunities in uncertain environments, providing a hedge against economic cycles [18]. - The long-term sustainability of brands hinges on their ability to cultivate deep consumer loyalty and transform products into cultural symbols [19].

Core Insights - The global AI revolution is at a critical juncture, with domestic large models like DeepSeek leading to a "multipolar" competitive landscape, driving a reevaluation of Chinese tech assets through technological breakthroughs, policy benefits, and capital flows [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, representing major Chinese tech companies, is attracting global attention due to its low valuation and high growth potential, especially after several constituent stocks reported better-than-expected Q1 2025 earnings [1] - The Great Wall Hang Seng Tech Index QDII fund aims to provide investors with an opportunity to invest in Chinese tech assets by tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index [1] Industry Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index consists of 30 of the largest tech companies listed in Hong Kong, primarily focused on non-essential consumer goods (54.3%) and information technology (40.7%), representing a significant cluster of China's core tech assets [1] - Many companies within the Hang Seng Tech Index are not listed on the A-share market, creating a complementary relationship with A-share tech assets, and are deeply involved in the AI industry chain across various sectors [2] - The constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index show strong growth potential, with a median revenue growth rate of 11.29% and a median net profit growth rate of 32.94% for the year 2024 [2] Investment Value - Since the "924" market rally, the Hang Seng Tech Index has experienced significant valuation recovery, rising from 3000 points to 6000 points within two quarters, despite a recent pullback [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown a 40.09% increase over the past year, outperforming major indices in Hong Kong and A-shares, indicating higher elasticity in the current tech market [3] - As of June 5, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 20.87, positioned at the 13.04% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a compelling opportunity for low-position investments [3]

每日晨报 2025年6月11日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 周二美股三大指数均上行，纳指领涨美股大 模 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 策略:稳定币概念股投资展望。稳定币概念股投资展望:(1)自中国香港《稳 定币条例草案》通过以来, [HK]稳定币指数(887779.WI)经历了先涨后跌的 行情,成交活跃度大幅提升。5月21日至6月2日,IHK]稳定币指数累计上 涨了 84.77%, 但 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日回调了 15.86%, 因此 5 月 21 日至 6 月 6 日累计上涨 55.47%。 (2) A 股稳定币指数 (8841912.WI) 行情略微滞后于 港股稳定币指数，波动幅度也小于港股。5 月 26 日至 6 月 5 日，A 股稳定币 指数累计上涨 35.51%, 6 月 6 目回调 2.83%。 (3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests adopting a "wait-and-see" approach for convertible bonds, seeking structural opportunities before the inflection point of the small and medium - cap stocks in the equity market. It also advises paying attention to changes in the liability side and taking appropriate profit - taking on some high - position varieties. Given the current situation, the style preference is elasticity > bond nature [5][27]. - Structurally, investment strategies are proposed from three aspects: option value strategy, absolute price strategy, and theme trading strategy [6][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the convertible bond market last week was positive. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has continuously risen since the end of May and has now returned to the level of late March. In terms of market capitalization style, during the four trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival, the small - cap style index outperformed the medium and large - cap varieties, showing a more trading - like market, which was also reflected in the industry sectors. Affected by factors such as the strong performance of new consumption and positive fundamentals of innovative drugs, the TMT and consumption sectors outperformed the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [5][9]. 2. Cumulative Entanglement: Spiral Rise of Price and Valuation - As the small - cap style returned to the upward range this week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index continued to rise. The median price of convertible bonds in the 90 - 110 yuan parity range has reached 122 yuan, at the upper edge of the oscillation range this year, and the valuation has exceeded 20%. However, compared with the May rebound, this round of the market shows a trend from large - cap convertible bonds to small - cap ones. For fixed - income + investors with a balanced and stable risk preference, the high - valuation environment increases the holding pressure [5][11]. 3. Using the Elimination Method: Liability - Side Emotional Changes May Be More Important 3.1 Credit Risk Impact - Localized - Since 2020, except for 2024, the number of rating downgrades each year has been within 30, and mid - to late June is the peak period for rating adjustments. As of now, the frequency of rating downgrades in 2025 is not significantly higher than the same period from 2020 - 2024, and the downgraded companies mostly face operational pressures. Except for the period since June 2024, the retracement of convertible bond varieties during the rating adjustment periods in other years was relatively controllable. Therefore, the credit risk impact on convertible bonds in 2025 may be "localized" [5][16]. 3.2 Liability - Side Changes and Valuation - Still in Entanglement - Using convertible bond ETFs as a benchmark, in the past 5 trading days, the product has shown a stable circulation scale but continuous share redemptions, indicating that the passive allocation part of convertible bonds may gradually complete profit - taking. The positions of institutions such as public funds and insurance companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have also been adjusted. The trading volume of high - turnover convertible bonds is still at a central level, and the trading has not entered an over - heated stage. Some industries in the consumption and TMT sectors have reached prices above 125 yuan. Whether the liability side will further shift from passive to active remains to be seen, and the key lies in whether the risk preference of the allocation side can increase again during the market trend establishment [5][21]. 4. Investment Strategies - **Option Value Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on new consumption sectors (e.g., Shuiyang Convertible Bond, Xianle Convertible Bond) and technology sectors (e.g., Dinglong Convertible Bond, Jingduan Convertible Bond) [6][28]. - **Absolute Price Strategy**: Bullish on bank varieties (e.g., Industrial Bank Convertible Bond) due to the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds, and pay attention to some pharmaceutical varieties with improved fundamentals (e.g., Yirui Convertible Bond, Haoyuan Convertible Bond) [6][28]. - **Theme Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to Huamao Convertible Bond catalyzed by mergers and acquisitions, and strategic sectors related to rare - earth magnetic materials such as Zhenghai Convertible Bond affected by continuous tariff disturbances [6][28].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the systemic and practical aspects of the current economic landscape, highlighting the shift in global trade dynamics due to the weakening of direct economic ties between China and the U.S. and the strengthening of China's relationships with emerging markets [1][2] - China's trade connections with emerging markets are becoming increasingly robust, while its trade ties with major U.S. allies have declined, indicating a strategic pivot in China's economic diplomacy [2] - The article suggests that the current "strategic stalemate" between China and the U.S. is a foundational expectation, with an optimistic outlook for China's strategic opportunities beginning to take root among investors [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is seen as having the potential to develop into a bull market due to increasing household asset allocation towards equities, driven by a decline in risk-free interest rates and an upcoming peak in deposit reallocations in 2025 [3][4] - Improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns are expected to elevate the return baseline for A-shares, while the encouragement of mergers and acquisitions aligns with a turning point in the primary market [4][5] - A significant supply clearing cycle is anticipated, which could lead to a long-term increase in profitability for Chinese enterprises, particularly in high-value sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The current market conditions are not yet signaling the start of a bull market, with various factors influencing demand and supply dynamics, including uncertainties in domestic fiscal policies and real estate [6][7] - The technology sector is undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with breakthroughs in foundational technologies necessary for significant advancements in AI applications [7] - New consumption trends are emerging as a separate industrial trend, but the broader economic transition towards consumption-driven growth is expected to be gradual [7][8] Group 4 - A forecast for A-share profitability in 2025 indicates a likely decline in demand in the latter half of the year, with a projected net profit growth rate of 4.6% for the entire A-share market [8] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as the accumulation of a profitable effect is necessary for public funds to re-enter the market [9][10] - The potential bull market is expected to be driven by structural trends in new economic industries, with significant catalysts needed for a broader market rally [10][12] Group 5 - The article discusses the conditions necessary for a bull market to emerge, emphasizing the importance of breaking out of the current trading range and the historical context of market behavior following bear markets [11][12] - The potential for a "Chinese-style slow bull" market is highlighted, with expectations for a longer duration of market optimism despite weaker elasticity in fundamental improvements [12][13] - Key sectors such as AI, embodied intelligence, and defense are identified as having the potential to drive structural bull trends, with a focus on high-value opportunities in the technology space [13][14] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned to lead the market rally, serving as a critical link in China's financial external circulation and benefiting from the convergence of domestic and foreign capital [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook and potential investment opportunities in the A-share market, highlighting a shift towards service industries and the implications of "anti-involution" policies for economic recovery and market performance [2][4][6]. Macroeconomic Insights - In the second half of 2025, key focus areas include "anti-involution" and "service industry," with expectations of a structural shift in major macroeconomic indicators [2][6]. - Manufacturing, which has shown strong performance, may face downward pressure due to the end of the equipment renewal cycle and intensified "anti-involution" policies, while the service sector is expected to improve and offset some of the manufacturing pressures [2][6]. - The transformation of the Chinese economy has entered a new phase, with traditional sectors like real estate contributing less to economic growth, leading to a divergence in economic indicators [4][5]. A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market has the potential to enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation and improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns [2][8]. - The anticipated bull market is expected to unfold as a "Chinese-style slow bull," with significant market improvements projected for 2026-2027 [3][9]. - The current market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase until conditions are ripe for a larger market rally, with 2025 seen as a year of preparation for a more favorable market environment in 2026 [9]. Industry Transformation - The shift towards new consumption patterns, such as experiential and self-indulgent consumption, is gaining momentum, with high-tech industries now accounting for 16.3% of industrial output [5]. - The "anti-involution" movement is characterized by higher government and industry focus, broader coverage of inefficiencies, and stronger policy-market coordination [7][6]. - The service sector is identified as a critical area for absorbing structural employment pressures, with a significant need for supply-side improvements to meet demand [7][6]. Investment Themes - Key investment themes include domestic AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries, which are expected to become core trends in structural bull markets [10]. - The article highlights the importance of high-quality sectors such as software, information technology, and new consumer goods, which are likely to maintain strong performance [11]. - Hong Kong stocks are expected to lead the market, with a trend of mainland assets listing in Hong Kong, particularly in the internet and high-dividend sectors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by "consumption upgrading" rather than simple "consumption downgrading" [1][4]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - The Chinese consumption market is transitioning from mass consumption to personalized and rational consumption, driven by the Z generation's willingness to pay for quality and emotional value [1][11]. - Overall consumption remains subdued, with per capita consumer spending and CPI below pre-2020 trends, yet new consumption hotspots are emerging, with certain sectors like tea drinks and light luxury goods experiencing significant growth [1][4]. - New consumption enterprises achieved an average revenue growth of 65% in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall resident consumption growth of 5.3% and the revenue growth of the consumer sector at 2.4% [1][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of New Consumption - The Chinese consumption market reflects a trend of "consumption upgrading," where consumers prioritize quality-price ratio and emotional value over merely seeking low prices [4][11]. - New consumption representatives have an average gross margin of 50.9%, which is substantially higher than the 23.9% of the consumer sector and 7.8% of the overall manufacturing sector [4][8]. - Key factors influencing consumer purchasing decisions include product quality, emotional value, and cost-effectiveness, with Z generation consumers particularly valuing emotional and quality aspects [7][23]. Group 3: Demographic Insights - The Z generation (ages 16-30) is becoming a driving force in the new consumption wave, showing the highest optimism about consumption prospects among all age groups [23]. - Z generation consumers exhibit a strong preference for emotional value and quality, with 40.1% prioritizing emotional value in their purchasing decisions [23][24]. - In lower-tier cities, the negative impact of real estate on consumption is diminishing, leading to a release of consumption potential, with retail growth rates in these cities surpassing those in higher-tier cities [24][25].

Group 1 - Over 60% of actively managed equity funds have recovered their net asset values to pre-April 7 levels as of June 9, driven by sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, gold, and AI [1][2] - Funds heavily invested in innovative pharmaceuticals, such as Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Select A and Zhonghang Preferred Navigation A, have rebounded over 30% in the last two months, with some funds achieving returns exceeding 70% year-to-date [2][3] - AI-themed funds have also seen significant recovery, with several funds gaining over 10% from June 3 to June 9, indicating a strong performance in the AI sector [4][6] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a style shift, with recent adjustments in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors, prompting discussions about potential short-term corrections [1][6] - The upcoming dividend distribution period for dividend assets may create selling pressure, potentially benefiting aggressive technology sectors if funds flow out of defensive assets [6][7] - There is a focus on technology stocks, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, as they are expected to perform well due to favorable market conditions and industry catalysts [6][7]

Group 1 - The core theme of the Nomura Orient International Securities 2025 Mid-term Strategy Conference is to explore certainty in the context of geopolitical risks and increasing uncertainty, focusing on how to grasp the certainty of industries and assets, as well as market trends and investment strategies [1] - The external environment in the first half of the year shows that the euro, which accounts for over 60% of the dollar index, has appreciated against the dollar since March, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal from dollar assets [1] - Non-dollar assets received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international capital favoring European bonds, European stocks, and the Hang Seng Technology Index [1] Group 2 - Nomura Orient International Securities believes that the market has fully priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the US economy (strong reality, weak expectations) and the Chinese economy (weak reality, strong expectations) [2] - The firm anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical juncture for market direction, with the potential for increased volatility as expectations and realities align over time [1][2] - The firm projects that the revenue growth rate for the CSI 300 will be 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 2.8% and 6.7% [2] Group 3 - The stable dividend yield of dividend stocks and segmented technology growth sectors (military, new energy, and new consumption) are expected to be more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [2] - The firm notes that the static valuation of the CSI 300 is still undervalued from an ERP perspective, being 25.6% lower than the ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic allocation funds [2] - The comparison of market performance post-trade friction easing in 2018 with the current market performance since May 10, 2025, suggests that domestic consumption and technology sectors may still have significant upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics surrounding innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, highlighting the contrasting performance of leading companies and the underlying risks associated with investor sentiment and institutional behavior [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations prompting discussions about potential upward trends [1]. - Leading companies in the innovative drug sector, such as Innovent Biologics, are compared to consumer sector leaders like Pop Mart, indicating a shift in investment focus [1]. - The article raises questions about the sustainability of high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios in the innovative drug sector, drawing parallels with past performance in technology and consumer stocks [1]. Group 2: Behavioral Finance Insights - The concept of "inertia thinking" is discussed, where investors rely on past experiences, such as the historical PE ratios of Moutai, to make decisions about innovative pharmaceuticals [3]. - Institutional investors are portrayed as adept at manipulating market sentiment, often leading retail investors to follow trends without understanding the underlying dynamics [3][4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing institutional trading behaviors, as they significantly influence stock prices and market movements [10]. Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - The use of quantitative models is suggested as a means to identify institutional trading characteristics, which can provide insights into market trends [6]. - Specific examples, such as the performance of Tianyoude liquor, illustrate how institutional involvement can lead to price increases, despite overall sector weakness [6][8]. - The article notes that when "instant inventory" data exceeds 3,600 stocks, it indicates significant institutional participation, often leading to positive market performance [11][13].