交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年3月24日 6、预期：郑糖节后震荡上行，k线站上长期均线，均线开始向上发散，从技术面上看有走出右侧 行情趋势。国内消费旺季即将到来，原油价格上涨，糖制乙醇价格上升，变相支撑白糖价格。白 糖走势进三退二，重心缓慢上移，盘中回落短多思路。 白糖： 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Datagro：26/27榨季糖缺口268万吨。ISO：预计25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩122万吨， 之前预估过剩163万吨。Covrig Analytics:26/27年度全球糖过剩预计缩减至140万吨，低于25/26 年度的470万吨。Green Pool：预计26/27年 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿生产相对稳定，供应端延续宽松格局。近期上游端出货情有所好转，叠加终端需 求稳步回升，市场相对活跃，煤价开始企稳反弹，中间环节贸易商和洗煤厂等拿货现象增加，矿点库存 压力有所减小，部分煤价继续向上探涨；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1240，基差-49.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦钢厂开工较为稳定，在现阶段高炉铁水产量以及需求回升带动下，原料煤刚需支撑较强。 加之钢价近期抬升，焦炭有向好预期，下游原料采购加快，对炼焦煤价格有较大的提振，预计短期焦煤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 23rd, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped by 3.52%, IH by 3.3%, IC by 4.6%, and IM by 5.28%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Multiple institutions remain optimistic about the long - term trend of A - shares [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4418, down 3.26%. Among its futures contracts, IF2604 closed at 4398, down 3.52% with a basis of - 20, IF2605 at 4385.2, down 3.80% with a basis of - 32.8, IF2606 at 4344.4, down 3.56% with a basis of - 73.6, and IF2609 at 4258.8, down 3.66% with a basis of - 159.2 [1]. - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2792.3, down 3.17%. Among its futures contracts, IH2604 closed at 2793.6, down 3.30% with a basis of 1.27, IH2605 at 2791.6, down 3.36% with a basis of - 0.73, IH2606 at 2776, down 3.43% with a basis of - 16.33, and IH2609 at 2741.2, down 3.50% with a basis of - 51.13 [1]. - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The CSI 500 index closed at 7440.8, down 4.11%. Among its futures contracts, IC2604 closed at 7387.6, down 4.60% with a basis of - 53.15, IC2605 at 7337.6, down 5.25% with a basis of - 103.2, IC2606 at 7235, down 4.88% with a basis of - 205.8, and IC2609 at 7049, down 5.13% with a basis of - 391.8 [1]. - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 7409.1, down 4.81%. Among its futures contracts, IM2604 closed at 7364, down 5.28% with a basis of - 45.11, IM2605 at 7298, down 6.13% with a basis of - 111.1, IM2606 at 7190, down 5.55% with a basis of - 219.1, and IM2609 at 6970, down 5.76% with a basis of - 439.1 [1]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 16389 lots, IH by 9616 lots, IC by 17588 lots, and IM by 34579 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF increased by 15821 lots, IH by 15894 lots, IC by 12068 lots, and IM by 22412 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2604, long positions increased by 4217 with a net change of 11416, and short positions increased by 2653 with a net change of 10103; for IF2606, long positions increased by 5627 and short positions by 5993; for IF2609, long positions increased by 1572 and short positions by 1457 [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2604, long positions increased by 5086 with a net change of 13287, and short positions increased by 5132 with a net change of 13530; for IH2606, long positions increased by 6270 and short positions by 6234; for IH2609, long positions increased by 1931 and short positions by 2164 [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2604, long positions increased by 1193 with a net change of 8447, and short positions increased by 67 with a net change of 7894; for IC2606, long positions increased by 6439 and short positions by 6844; for IC2609, long positions increased by 815 and short positions by 983 [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2604, long positions increased by 769 with a net change of 11879, and short positions increased by 365 with a net change of 11391; for IM2606, long positions increased by 11110 and short positions by 11026 [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.5 Important Drivers - Key events include China's emphasis on the development of Xiongan New Area, domestic refined oil price control, the deadlock in US - Iran negotiations, a more than 9% drop in international oil prices, sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices, and a significant decline in Asia - Pacific stock markets. A - shares and Hong Kong stocks also experienced significant drops, but multiple institutions are optimistic about the long - term trend of A - shares [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. Although there will be some device overhauls in the short term, daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between export and domestic markets has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited due to guidance. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year. There will be some device overhauls in the short term, but daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between export and domestic markets has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited due to guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 24, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.3%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 million tons (- 14.2 million tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. With high daily production year - on - year, the recovery of industrial demand, the differentiation of agricultural demand, and the depletion of inventory, it is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Urea Price - **Positive factors**: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. - **Negative factors**: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. - **Main logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3.3 Market Data - **Spot market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1860, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1870, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1860, unchanged; the FOB China price is 4910 [6]. - **Futures market**: The price of the 05 contract is 1884, up 43; the basis is - 24, down 43; the price of UR01 is 1910, up 40; the price of UR05 is 1884, up 43; the price of UR09 is 1943, up 49 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8712, up 213; the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 million tons, unchanged; the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 million tons, unchanged; the UR port inventory is 16.7 million tons, unchanged [6]. 3.4 Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption has also been increasing, with consumption growth rates of 12.8% in 2019, 17.9% in 2020, 2.6% in 2021, 0.3% in 2022, 5.9% in 2023, and 8.4% in 2024 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber, considering that the Middle - East situation has triggered bullish sentiment, but the natural rubber market has entered a bearish season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are as follows: the spot is relatively strong; the inventory in Qingdao is accumulating, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, which is neutral. The basis is - 145 with the spot price at 16000, which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is neutral. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on March 23. The US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is mentioned but no value is given [8] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently. The inventory in Qingdao is accumulating. The import volume has declined. The production and sales of automobiles have declined, while the tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [14][17][20][23][29][32] - **Base Difference**: The basis weakened on March 23 [35] 3.3 Multiple - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2605 is expected to be a volatile rebound. The previous trading day saw a volatile decline in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and a reduction in both long and short positions, with more short positions being reduced. Technically, the price is below the moving - average system, and short - term indicators show signs of alleviating oversold conditions while the trend indicator indicates an increase in both long and short forces, with the short - side advantage expanding [2][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November 2025, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,730, and the basis is - 70, which is a neutral factor [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 500 tons to 117,175 tons compared to the previous day. On the same day, the zinc inventory warrants of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,911 tons to 100,598 tons compared to the previous day, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile decline, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main players hold net long positions, with a reduction in long positions, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 23 - The quotes of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months are provided, including previous settlement prices, opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 23 - The spot TC of domestic zinc ore is 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc ore is 20 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang is also provided, along with price changes [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/12 - 2026/3/23) - The inventory of zinc ingots in main markets such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, etc. from March 12, 2025, to March 23, 2026, is presented. The total inventory on March 23, 2026, is 2.195 million tons, showing a decrease compared to March 16 and March 19 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 23 - The zinc warrant situation in different regions and warehouses is reported, with a total of 100,598 tons, a decrease of 1,911 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 23 - The distribution and changes of LME zinc inventory in major global warehouses are provided, with a total inventory of 117,175 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 23 - The prices and price changes of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi are provided, with a price drop of 200 yuan in all regions [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 23 - The price quotes of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Torch, Huludao Zinc Industry, and Zhongquan Lingnan are provided, with a price drop of 240 yuan for all [11]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February is 468,700 tons, the actual production is 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The production plan for March is 490,200 tons [13]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 23 - The zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions, including the minimum, maximum, and average prices, are provided, with domestic prices ranging from 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton and the imported price being 20 US dollars/dry ton [15]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on March 23 - The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume rankings of different members, as well as their respective changes, are provided. The total trading volume is 186,200, the total long - position volume is 70,946 with a decrease of 96, and the total short - position volume is 70,993 with a decrease of 2,999 [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities, including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand situations, and price movements of different commodities based on fundamental and technical factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies and future outlooks [11][13][22]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Information - President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized its function as the concentrated承载 area for relocating non - capital functions of Beijing [6]. - US President Trump claimed to have "strong" dialogues with Iran and form the outline of an agreement, but Iran denied the claim. There are still many uncertainties in the US - Iran relationship [6]. - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island, and Iran will take counter - measures if attacked [7]. - China implemented temporary regulation on refined oil prices for the first time in 13 years. The actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices was less than the calculated increase [7]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 will be held from March 24th to 27th [7]. - Beijing's three departments约谈ed 12 platform companies and put forward rectification requirements [8]. - 20 listed companies disclosed share repurchase plans or progress due to recent capital market fluctuations [8]. - The US Vice - President and Israeli Prime Minister discussed the negotiation with Iran, and Israel continued to attack Iran and Lebanon [9]. - The Chicago Fed President said inflation is the main risk in the US economy, and there is a possibility of interest rate hikes, but also a chance of rate cuts later this year if the Iran conflict is resolved [9]. - Japan's largest labor union achieved an average salary increase of 5.26%, which increased the market's expectation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to consider right - side trial long positions. The stock market declined significantly, and the decline was related to the Middle East conflict and inflation expectations. The current position has certain odds, and short - term winning probability may increase [11]. 3. Black Commodities - **Steel**: The demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils has a certain decline. The supply side has a small increase in iron - water production. The cost side has strong support, but high inventory suppresses prices. The short - term is expected to rebound but with limited space [13][14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The price increase is affected by the energy substitution logic due to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the emotional premium fades, the price may fall back [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are deteriorating, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. 4. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. In the medium - to - long term, the supply of copper concentrate is tight, which provides marginal support [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly bearish with small rebounds [25]. - **Lead**: The inventory has stopped rising, and the price is expected to be volatile. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelters' reluctance to sell at low prices and the increase in downstream procurement may reduce the inventory pressure [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [29]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and opportunities to sell call options can be considered after a rebound. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile, and caution is needed in operation [30]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a high - level volatile state due to external conflicts and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The future trend is affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand changes, and weather [33][34]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is under pressure from supply and fluctuates in a range. The global sugar supply situation is controversial, and the domestic sugar price is affected by supply pressure and import cost [35][36]. - **Eggs**: The recent consumption recovery supports the egg price, but the supply pressure is large. The futures near - month contract has upward pressure, and the second - half - year contract is suppressed by normal replenishment [37][38]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple sources may continue to be strong, and the price is expected to be strong. The market is affected by the inventory level and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [39][40]. - **Corn**: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and consider rolling 5 - 7 reverse spreads. The price is supported by low inventory in the short term but may be suppressed by policy regulation and the substitution of wheat [40]. - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the price is affected by the sales rhythm and the mentality of purchasers [41]. - **Pigs**: For futures, consider selling out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is limited, but the live - stock inventory may start to decline [42]. 6. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have weakened, but there are still many uncertainties. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the oil price may return to fundamental trading. If no agreement is reached, the oil price may continue to rise [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level. The key is the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [45][46]. - **Plastic**: The price is supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East and the reduction of upstream production. The short - term is expected to be slightly stronger, and the long - term depends on the end of the war [47]. - **Rubber**: Be cautious about chasing long positions. Pay attention to the opening of the domestic Yunnan production area and the impact of the conflict on tire exports [48]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is driven by the cost side and may have upward space, but be cautious about chasing the rise [49]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may be slightly stronger due to geopolitical factors, but it may回调 if the war eases. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there are uncertainties [50][51]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is affected by the increase in coal prices, supply reduction, and export growth, as well as the high futures premium. The long - and short - term logics are clear [52]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a state of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the impact of the oil price and raw material import risks is dominant [53]. - **PVC**: The price may be slightly stronger in the short term due to the reduction of upstream production, but there is a risk of回调 if the market sentiment turns bad [54]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The cost side is weakening, but the supply contraction provides support. Appropriate reduction of long positions is recommended. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact, device maintenance, and demand recovery [55][56]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Geopolitical risks have weakened, but there are still uncertainties. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, it may return to fundamental trading. The price is expected to weaken but may be relatively stronger than crude oil [57]. - **Paper Pulp**: Pay attention to the impact of macro and commodity sentiment. The price may be supported by the low valuation and the improvement of the fundamentals [58]. - **Log**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity sentiment. The demand is recovering, and the cost provides support. The fundamentals may stabilize if the demand can keep up with the increase in supply [59]. - **Urea**: The far - month contract is affected by coal and chemical futures, and the near - month contract should follow the policy [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - COMEX gold futures dropped 3.60% to $4410.40 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 0.49% to $69.32 per ounce, Shanghai gold's main contract declined 1.3% to 980 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 3.47% to 17,246 yuan per kilogram [1] - The market treated the news of the US-Iran dialogue as positive, leading to a fall in international crude oil prices, a rise in US stocks, and a decline in US bond prices [1] - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 3.60% to $4410.40 per ounce, COMEX silver futures declined 0.49% to $69.32 per ounce, Shanghai gold's main contract dropped 1.3% to 980 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 3.47% to 17,246 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 23, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 4.286 tons to 1052.705 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 264.76 tons to 15513.67 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 92.8%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate hike is 9.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate hike is 0.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 90.7% [1] - Trump said there were productive dialogues with Iran in the past two days and would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for five days, but Iran denied the negotiation, saying Trump aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for military plans [1] Market Logic - The market treated the news of the US - Iran dialogue as positive, causing international crude oil prices to fall, US stocks to rise, and US bond prices to decline [1] - COMEX gold rebounded strongly after hitting a low of $4100 per ounce and closed above $4400 per ounce, and COMEX silver rebounded above $69 per ounce after hitting a low near $61 per ounce [1] - The US has shown some intention for peace talks, but the positions of the US and Iran differ greatly, and the future development needs continuous attention [1] Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and liquidity may be the key factor. The TACO trading may drive a short - term market rebound, but the market may still face pressure later. The key lies in whether liquidity increases. If the two - market stabilizes without a liquidity recovery, it may be a bull trap [1][10]. - **Stock Index Options**: The risk - aversion sentiment has escalated, and volatility has risen rapidly. In the context of long - term risk pricing of external events, one should be wary of the risk of secondary amplification of volatility caused by liquidity transmission. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense in the short term [2][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The geopolitical situation has escalated, and most of the bond market has declined. One needs to pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The short - end is relatively well - supported, while the long - end may be volatile [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the stock market adjusted again. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 4.31%, and the China Securities 1000 Index fell 4.81%. Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and technology stocks were under pressure, and small - cap stocks led the decline [1][10]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Israel - Iran conflict heated up again over the weekend. The market is worried that the geopolitical risk may not end in the short term, and the impact of energy disturbances on inflation may be underestimated. Trump postponed the strike on Iran for 5 days after the market closed yesterday, leading to a rebound in crude oil and the US dollar index after a decline, and a weak stabilization of US and European stocks [1][10]. - **Outlook**: TACO trading may drive a short - term market rebound, but the market may still face pressure later. The key lies in whether liquidity increases. Reasons include: multi - asset resonance due to geopolitical conflicts, low trading volume in the past three days, and possible liquidity踩踏 caused by retail investors and hot money stopping losses [1][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [10]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the underlying market declined throughout the day, and the total single - day trading volume of financial options soared to 21.83 billion yuan. The IV of each variety rose rapidly, reaching a relatively high level in the past quarter, and the position PCR declined rapidly, indicating that the implied risk is still being released [2][10]. - **Structural Features**: The upward volatility intensity of the call side of the 50 and 300 options is greater than that of the small - and medium - cap options, indicating that the market expects the former to be relatively more resistant to decline [2][10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of long - term risk pricing of external events, be wary of the risk of secondary amplification of volatility caused by liquidity transmission. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense in the short term [2][10]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were divided. The price of the TL contract rose, while the prices of other varieties of contracts fell. The T main contract fluctuated downward after opening [3][11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US - Iran situation escalated over the weekend, increasing the market's expectation of rising oil prices. At the same time, due to the decline in the stock market, some funds may have redemption on the liability side, leading to the net selling of spot bonds by some funds and a weakening of the treasury bond futures market [3][11]. - **Outlook**: One needs to pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The short - end is relatively well - supported under the relatively loose capital situation, while the long - end may be volatile [3][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: volatile. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - side hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage at the ultra - long end. Curve strategy: the short - term curve may be steeper [11].