Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major futures contracts opening lower on July 31, leading to substantial drops in popular products like coking coal, glass, and soda ash, with declines exceeding 5% [1][2] - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell nearly 1.5% in early trading, with notable declines in black series products and the glass sector, which saw a drop of over 8% by the end of the trading day [2][4] Group 2: Specific Commodity Performance - Coking coal futures hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while glass futures dropped 8.22% to 1117 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 6.62% [2][4] - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, experienced significant declines, with polysilicon dropping 7.81% to 49130 yuan/ton and lithium carbonate down 4.66% to 68280 yuan/ton [4][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply is stabilizing with upstream coal mine inventories at reasonable levels, while demand from coking enterprises remains strong despite current production losses [3][5] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment, with polysilicon production rates at historical lows of 30-40%, leading to an improved supply situation, while lithium carbonate faces pressure from increasing inventories despite stable domestic production [5][6] Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reiterated its commitment to "anti-involution" policies, which may support the market but have led to a cooling of speculative demand [6] - Recent adjustments by the exchange on margin requirements and trading limits for major contracts aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major declines observed in various popular products, particularly in the black series and photovoltaic industry chain products [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On July 31, domestic futures opened lower, with many popular products experiencing declines exceeding 5%, including焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and 纯碱 (soda ash) [1][2]. - The 文华商品指数 (Wenhua Commodity Index) fell nearly 1.5% in the morning session, with significant drops in焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and other black series products [2]. - By the afternoon, the index dropped over 2%, with glass and silicon iron hitting their daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Black Series Products -焦煤 (coking coal) saw its main contract hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while other black series products like焦炭 (coke) and螺纹钢 (rebar) also experienced significant declines of 4.93% and 4.19%, respectively [2]. - The supply side for焦煤 (coking coal) is stabilizing, with upstream coal mine inventories returning to reasonable levels and production recovering [3]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate), 工业硅 (industrial silicon), and 多晶硅 (polysilicon), experienced deep corrections, with declines of 6% and more [4]. - By the end of trading,多晶硅 (polysilicon) fell 7.81% to 49,130 yuan/ton, while industrial silicon and lithium carbonate also saw significant drops [4]. - The overall production of多晶硅 (polysilicon) is expected to approach 110,000 tons, with a significant increase anticipated in August [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent decline in market sentiment is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic factors, with investors awaiting further policy guidance [2][5]. - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with cautious trading strategies recommended for多晶硅 (polysilicon) and碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) due to ongoing pressures in the supply-demand balance [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to limit speculative trading in industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, which may help mitigate market risks [5][6].

需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，当前地产形势不容乐观，房地产依旧表现低迷，下游深加工订单 下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存 压力。 后市来看，五矿期货表示，短期玻璃受到宏观政策提振，但随着情绪释放出现大幅度回调，预计短期内 以震荡为主。当前玻璃库存明显下降主要是期现商拿货所致，实质上库存下降程度有限，下游房地产需 求数据暂时没有特别明显的好转。中长期来看，玻璃跟随宏观情绪波动，房地产方面若有实质性政策出 台，期价或能延续上涨趋势，但若需求继续疲软，则需要供给端持续收缩，才能有较大的上涨空间。 宏观层面，据中辉期货介绍，近期市场围绕"反内卷"政策预期交易，工信部表示钢铁、有色金属、石 化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台，市场情绪再次被点燃。 供应方面，建信期货指出，近期受到光伏玻璃企业计划减产的影响，光伏玻璃日熔量开始走低。浮法玻 璃的供应也随着日熔量的走低出现回落，因此库存压力降进一步增大，对玻璃基本面带来不小的压力。 目前，行业中游库存处于高位，成为价格上行的主要阻力，而玻璃产能去化进程缓慢，导致后期库存存 在进一步累积压力。 7月 ...

短期风险对冲只能解燃眉之急，行业真正的可持续发展仍需依赖基本面的实质性改善。 当前政策预期为市场注入短期情绪动力，但要实现从"预期回暖"到"实质反转"的跨越，还需三大支撑： 政策细则的精准落地，包括老旧装置退出清单的明确、环保技改补贴的兑现；下游需求的企稳回升，既 需要房地产竣工面积的实际增长，也依赖光伏装机规模的持续扩大；产能结构的深度优化，推动高成本 产能加速出清与天然碱法替代进程。 王铭之表示，市场终将回归理性，能穿越周期的永远是务实者。"在行业洗牌中脱颖而出的企业，往往 是那些在狂热时保持冷静、在悲观时提前布局的市场主体。"他说。 "反内卷"政策为玻璃、纯碱市场注入的并非简单的价格上涨动力，而是倒逼产业升级的转型契机。这轮 由政策预期推动的市场行情，既暴露了行业长期存在的供需失衡、产能结构僵化等深层问题，也推动企 业在波动中探索更理性的生存法则。在政策预期与市场现实的持续博弈中，玻璃、纯碱企业正从短期风 险管理到长期产业转型，逐步勾勒出"反内卷"背景下的破局路径。 政策暖风下的市场波动，让风险管理成为企业生存的"必修课"。调研中期货日报记者发现，利用期货期 权等工具管理风险已成为行业共识，为企业筑起了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⿊⾊："反内卷"预期暂降温，⿊⾊价格回落 市场关注许久的重要会议尘埃落定，从定调上看虽然积极但相较于市 场趋于狂热的心态而言还是不及预期，黑色价格应声而落。不过我们 认为，在宏观大方向不变的基础上，不排除后续会议或政策再度形成 利好的可能。产业方面，尽管终端板块需求未看到明显转势，但目前 驱动核心点仍在于中间环节补库。中游心态较好，出货意愿不强， 现货价格较为坚挺。近期黑色波动加剧，宏观或仍有扰动，以低多思 路看待，后续进入旺季随着交易重心回到基本面有高位回落风险。 1、铁元素方面，从基本面来看，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到 港量下降，符合预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁水产量微 降，同比保持高位，支撑矿石需求。由于到港偏低、需求高位，铁矿 石45港小幅去库。铁矿基本面利空驱动有限，价格震荡运行。若市场 情绪再度升温，价格或震荡偏强。 2、碳元素方面，产地生产扰动仍存，供应端依然受限，整体供应缓 慢恢复。进口端，近几日蒙煤日均通关在千车以上，维持高位。焦炭 四轮提涨全面落地，焦企利润有所缓解，但仍有部分企业处于亏损状 态，产地焦企已开启第五轮提涨，同时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 31 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强 耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，基建开工有所回暖，港口货运量仍在上行。 【工业生产】工业生产表现分化。 本周，高炉开工率同比小幅回升，录得1.2%。化工链生产有所回落， 纯碱、PTA开工同比分别-3.3pct至-6.0%、-1.2pct至-1.0%。汽车半钢胎开工仍不及去年同期，同比-0.2pct 至-3.3%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比-3.9pct至-6.2%；水泥出货率仍在低 位，同比-2.6pct至-3.0%。沥青开工率有所回升，同比+1.0pct至0.3%。 【下游需求】地产成交有所回升，港口货运量仍在上行。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积偏弱，同比 +20pct至-6.1%。货运方面，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量回升，同比分别+5.2pct至 13.3%、+6.3pct至11.5% ；但集运价格延续回落、环比-3.2%。人流出行强度小幅回升，全国迁徙规模指 数同比+0.4pct至17.8%。国内执行航班架次同比+0.7pct至2.5%。 1. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows mixed trends with production indicators like power plant consumption and blast furnace operation rates having their own characteristics, while demand - side indicators such as new home sales and cement prices face challenges. Inflation presents a situation where CPI is affected by weakening pig prices and PPI is influenced by rising oil prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Near Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Consumption Oscillates at a High Level - Power plant consumption is in a high - level oscillation. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 88.21 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 218 tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15. After rainfall, with the approaching of mid - dog days, power coal consumption is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is predicted to stay between 210 - 240 tons [6][17]. - Blast furnace operation rates remain at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operation rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. The operation rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 92.0% on July 25, also unchanged from July 18. At current price levels, steel mills' profits are relatively good, so they are reluctant to reduce production even in the off - season [21]. - Tire operation rates are weakly stable. On July 24, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17, and the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, also a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operation rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region declined moderately. On July 24, the operation rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 92.1%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from July 17, and the operation rate of downstream weaving machines was 55.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from July 17 [6][24]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Near Previous Lows - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 20.1 million square meters, a 31.4% decrease from June, an 18.8% decrease from July last year, a 34.7% decrease from July 2023, and a 52.9% decrease from July 2022. By region, sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased by 27.9%, 15.9%, and 12.3% year - on - year respectively [29]. - The car market's retail sales are steadily strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year. Since February 2025, the industry replacement rate has been stable above 60%, becoming the main driving force for the passenger car market [31]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22. Steel products have had inventory accumulation for two consecutive weeks. On July 25, the inventory of five major steel products was 9.271 million tons, a 50,000 - ton increase from July 18 [36]. - Cement prices are near previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions dropping by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. The national cement market continues to operate weakly with obvious regional differentiation [39]. - Glass prices have corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22. High inventory has dragged down prices [45]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3%. Except for the European route, the freight rates of the other three major ocean routes continued to fall [49]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices are weakening. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22. Terminal consumption is suppressed by high temperatures, and the long - term supply is abundant. In July, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase month - on - month and a 16.9% decrease year - on - year [56]. - The agricultural product price index oscillates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, the price changes were in the order of eggs (up 5.1%) > fruits (up 1.7%) > mutton (up 0.9%) > vegetables (up 0.7%) > chicken (up 0.4%) > beef (down 0.02%) > pork (down 1.2%) [60]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices are rising. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22. Concerns about crude oil supply support oil prices [63]. - Copper and aluminum prices are falling. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22. Most industrial product prices increased in July, and the year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices narrowed [69][72].