（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 格隆汇10月15日｜瑞银发表报告，将2026至28年各年铜价预测分别上调8%、19%及11%，至每吨11464 美元、13095美元及12809美元，以反映行业基本面收紧，主要因印尼Grasberg矿场下调产量指引，以及 刚果(金)Kamoa Kakula和智利El Teniente发生事故，加上今年秘鲁发生抗议，可能加剧矿场供应的短期 风险。该行预计2026年精炼铜需求将增长3%，而相应供应仅增长不足1%，将推动市场转入短缺状态， 并导致库存下降，从而支持铜价持续上行。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The change in Sino-US trade relations has led to an increase in risk aversion demand, with significant fluctuations in risk assets. The performance within the non-ferrous metals sector is relatively differentiated, with copper showing relatively large fluctuations, while other non-ferrous metals tend to be more cautious in consolidation [12]. - For different non-ferrous metals, specific market conditions and investment suggestions are provided, such as for copper, it is recommended to gradually go long on dips; for zinc, pay attention to the opening of the export window; for aluminum and its industrial chain, adopt a short - selling approach, etc. [4][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: Sino - US trade relations have increased risk aversion demand, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. Non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having larger fluctuations and others being more cautious [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: The supply pressure cannot be relieved, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton [4][14]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the opening of the export window. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with an upper pressure around 22,500 - 22,600 and a lower support around 21,800 - 22,000 [5][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Adopt a short - selling approach, with different pressure and support ranges for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and consider buying out - of - the - money options for protection [6][15]. - **Tin**: Maintain a short - selling operation, with an upper pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 and a lower support range of 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Consider a wide - range option double - selling strategy, with a support at 16,500 - 16,600 and a pressure at 17,000 - 17,200 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a consolidation trend, with an upper pressure of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan and a lower support of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. Stainless steel is in a weak - fluctuating range, with a support at 12,500 - 12,600 and a pressure at 13,000 - 13,200 [9]. Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as copper closing at 84,410 yuan with a - 0.83% change, zinc at 22,220 yuan with a - 0.16% change, etc. [18][19] Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metal futures contracts are shown, including沪金(AU2512),沪银(AG2512), etc. [20] Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price at 86,060 yuan/ton with a 1.06% change, and the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 22,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change [21][23] Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For different non - ferrous metals, relevant industry chain data charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price comparisons, such as copper exchange inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, etc. [25][28] Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related data charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [57][59] Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Option - related data charts for non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of options, such as copper option historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, etc. [73][75]

Group 1: Current Trade Dynamics - The likelihood of an escalation in the tariff war is low, as the Trump administration prioritizes reaching a deal rather than unnecessary escalation[1] - The market has developed a "TACO" learning effect, reducing panic compared to the initial trade friction in April[1] - The focus of the current trade friction is on supply chain security, with both sides preparing for negotiations using both incentives and countermeasures[3] Group 2: Recent Developments and Measures - On October 10, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all products from China starting November 1, in response to China's export controls on rare earth minerals[3] - The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) introduced the "50% rule," extending export control restrictions to non-U.S. subsidiaries with 50% or more ownership by listed entities[4] - China retaliated with a "0.1% long-arm jurisdiction" rule, requiring licenses for any product containing even a trace of Chinese rare earth elements[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - China's exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, surpassing Bloomberg's median forecast of 6.6%[8] - The correlation between market movements and trade tensions has diminished, with the primary drivers now being U.S. fiscal expansion and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts[19] - The U.S. economy's growth in the first half of 2025 was entirely attributed to private investment in information processing and software, which grew at an annualized rate of 28.3%[20] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected escalation of trade tensions, a possible AI bubble burst leading to systemic financial risks, and Trump's emotional decision-making influenced by domestic political pressures[27] - The current market environment suggests a shift towards a pragmatic resolution of trade issues, with a focus on structural agreements rather than further escalation[19]

今年6月，自然资源部办公厅印发《"十四五"矿产资源规划总结评估及"十五五"规划编制工作的通 知》，对"十五五"全国矿产资源规划编制提出具体要求。 "短短几个月，省级技术规程与市县级编制指南就同步出台，凸显规划体系'上下衔接、压茬推进'的紧 迫性。"业内专家对第一财经记者表示，这份覆盖省、市、县三级的编制框架，国家矿产资源管理在安 全保障、绿色发展、机制创新三大领域的战略导向越发清晰，也体现出国家推进矿业新质生产力发展与 全球资源布局的深层考量。 专家表示，"把资源安全置于国家安全体系的突出位置"这一顶层设计在两份文件中得到系统性落实。 《技术规程》明确，立足"国家所需、地方所能"的总体要求，根据经济社会发展对地质矿产的需求，合 图为湖北某地正在对矿山进行生态修复。摄影/章轲 自然资源部正指导省级、市县级"十五五"矿产资源规划编制，以加强部省衔接，落实全国矿产资源规划 的相应目标任务，提高地方矿规的科学性、合理性和可操作性，切实提升规划编制质量。 理确定规划目标指标和部署重点工作任务，明确准入要求。《编制指南》提出，"重点落实全国重点矿 产资源勘查开采项目和省级矿产资源勘查开采项目"。 自然资源部研究制定的《" ...

我国为什么对澳大利亚"动真格"？迫使澳大利亚踢开美元又意味着什么呢？ 按道理来说，我国作为全球最大的铁矿石进口国，澳大利亚在与我国展开合作的过程中，应当努力把握住我国这个大客户才是，主导权应当在我们这边才 对，但现实情况却并非如此。长期以来，我国在铁矿石贸易领域都一直处于被动状态，不仅有外国矿企通过垄断来操控价格，还有一些还试图采取不正当的 手段，窃取我国钢企数据来左右市场预期。面对这种情况，我国显然不可能眼见自身的利益被不断地剥削，同时交易还要受到美元的影响，打破这种不利局 面是迟早的事。于是便在9月底，我国下定决心重新和澳方铁矿石企业展开谈判，明确要求日后出口到中国的铁矿石，必须以人民币进行结算。 对此，澳大利亚方面肯定是不愿意的。在这之前，"必和必拓"公司还曾准备与我国就这么僵持下去，摆出一副绝不退让的架势。但事实证明，它的这种强硬 姿态并没有维持多久，在意识到我国这次是动真格的后，便开始主动服软了，不仅一脚踢开了美元，同时还让我国拿到了铁矿石的定价权。 那为什么澳企一见我国动真格的就服软了呢？简单分析来看，至少有两方面的原因：首先，目前放眼全球范围内只有中国的市场体量能消化掉澳洲的铁矿石 出口量，而铁 ...

经济观察网盛屯矿业（600711）10月14日晚公告，公司全资下属公司盛屯黄金安大略拟以每股1.38加元 的价格，现金方式收购加拿大Loncor公司现有全部已发行且流通的普通股及待稀释股份。本次收购的交 易金额约为2.61亿加元，约合1.9亿美元，人民币约13.5亿元，收购资金来源为公司自有或自筹资金。收 购完成后，公司将持有Loncor公司100%股权。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the decline in the stock price of Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver Tin Mining Co., Ltd., which fell by 5.03% to 33.21 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.079 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 58.969 billion CNY [1] - The company was established on August 23, 1996, and listed on August 28, 1996, focusing on the mining and smelting of non-ferrous and ferrous metal resources [1] - The main business revenue composition includes: silver mining 34.80%, tin mining 30.81%, zinc mining 19.32%, lead mining 5.12%, iron mining 3.34%, antimony mining 2.90%, copper mining 2.01%, others 0.72%, gold mining 0.66%, and bismuth mining 0.32% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, Southern Fund's Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) increased its holdings by 2.4763 million shares in the second quarter, holding a total of 18.4623 million shares, which accounts for 1.04% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for the Southern CSI 500 ETF today is approximately 32.4936 million CNY [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was established on February 6, 2013, with a latest scale of 113.438 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 27.41%, ranking 1733 out of 4220 in its category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience despite recent external disturbances, with a potential for long-term upward trends supported by policy planning and favorable industry fundamentals [1] Market Performance - The three major stock indices opened lower but rebounded, with the CSI A500 index slightly up. As of 10:20 AM, the A500 ETF (512050) rose by 0.61% [1] - Notable component stocks included Zijin Mining up 1.63%, CATL up 1.44%, and Ping An Insurance up 0.89%, while Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and Dongfang Fortune also saw slight increases [1] Investor Sentiment - Recent market adjustments have led to increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, but the sell-off is not panic-driven, indicating market resilience [1] - Multiple investment institutions suggest that while risk assets may face short-term pressure, the long-term positive trend for A-shares remains intact [1] Analyst Insights - According to Li Qiusuo, Chief Analyst of Domestic Strategy at CICC, the recent events may impact risk appetite in the short term, but the foundation for market growth remains strong [1] - Upcoming policy frameworks such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the ongoing positive trends in technology sectors contribute to a favorable outlook for A-shares [1] - The overall valuation range of A-shares is considered reasonable, suggesting that any irrational short-term adjustments could present good reallocation opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation to create new growth points [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announces sanctions against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. as part of countermeasures [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology holds a meeting to promote industrial structure optimization and the application of artificial intelligence in manufacturing [4] Group 2 - The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance reports a total battery production of 151.2 GWh in September, with a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [6] - The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand to reach approximately 1.75 billion tons in 2025 [7] - JD.com announces a collaboration with CATL and GAC Group to launch a new vehicle on November 9 [9] Group 3 - Several companies report significant year-on-year profit increases for the first three quarters, including: - Yahua Group: net profit expected to increase by 107%-133% [11] - Ruixin Microelectronics: net profit expected to increase by 116%-127% [11] - Shenghe Resources: net profit expected to increase by 697%-783% [11] - Shandong Gold: net profit expected to increase by 84%-99% [11] - Xinda Co.: net profit expected to increase by 2808%-3212% [11] Group 4 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth to slow to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 3.1% in 2026 [15] - Goldman Sachs revises the global data center electricity demand forecast for 2030, expecting a significant increase of 175% compared to 2023 [16] - Stellantis plans to invest $13 billion to expand operations in the U.S., increasing production capacity by 50% [21]

Core Argument - The article emphasizes that the U.S. cannot achieve mineral independence solely through domestic mining efforts, highlighting the structural challenges in the supply chain for critical minerals essential for modern economy and national security [3][4][13]. Domestic Supply Challenges - Even in the most optimistic growth scenarios, by 2035, U.S. domestic production will only meet the projected demand for zinc and molybdenum, while significant reliance on imports will remain for copper, graphite, lithium, silver, nickel, and manganese [3][4]. - The U.S. is projected to have a 62% dependency on copper imports and a staggering 282% shortfall in lithium supply by 2035, indicating fundamental flaws in a purely domestic mining strategy [3][4]. - Geological limitations and high production costs hinder the U.S. from becoming self-sufficient in critical minerals, with existing copper production costs exceeding the global average by 8% [3][4][6]. Processing and Refining Bottlenecks - The U.S. faces significant capacity gaps in the midstream processing of minerals, particularly in copper smelting, where competition from China has severely impacted Western firms' profitability [4][6]. - Current U.S. smelting capacity is insufficient to process all domestically mined ores, necessitating reliance on foreign processing, particularly in China [6][7]. Policy and Strategic Recommendations - The article advocates for a mixed strategy combining "onshoring" and "friendshoring" to build a resilient and diversified global supply chain for critical minerals [8][9]. - A coherent national strategy is essential, moving beyond tariffs and fragmented subsidies to establish a public-private partnership that fosters innovation and competitiveness in the mining sector [11][12]. - The report suggests implementing a price guarantee mechanism, such as "Contract for Difference," to provide price certainty for high-cost domestic mining projects, thereby attracting private investment [12]. Priority Minerals and International Cooperation - Nickel and cobalt are identified as critical for high-performance batteries, with Australia and Canada being reliable partners for supply [10]. - Lithium, graphite, and manganese are highlighted as essential materials for battery manufacturing, necessitating strategic partnerships with countries like Australia, Canada, and those in South America [14]. - The U.S. must establish stable supply relationships with traditional silver-producing countries in Latin America to meet the increasing demand from the solar industry [14].