每周投资策略 产品及投资方案部 ｜2026年2月2日 中信证券财富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 | 上周环球 大类资产表现 | (1) 印度市场焦点 | (2) 英国市场焦点 | (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观环境趋稳， | 預期英伦银行 | 本周议息会议有75%概率 | | | 经济有望复苏 | 本次议息按兵不动 | 加息25个基点 | | | 股票 | 股票 | 股票 | | 本周主要地区 | 等待情绪回暖； | 估值修复驱动，盈利增速向上； | 首选澳大利亚资源股； | | 经济数据公布日程 | Eternal；Vedanta | 巴克莱 ；倫敦交易所 | Northern Star；力拓集团 | | | ETF | ETF | ETF | | | 安硕核心SENSEX印度ETF | iShares MSCI英國ETF | iShares安硕MSCI澳大利亚ETF | | 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) | | | | 1 上周环球 股市表现 特 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Shengtun Mining experienced a limit down, with a trading volume of 3.107 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 6.68% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Connect special seat bought 323 million yuan and sold 81.167 million yuan [1] - Four institutional special seats had a net sell of 391 million yuan [1]

受人工智能领域担忧情绪及贵金属市场剧烈波动冲击全球市场影响，欧洲股市本周首个交易日低开走 弱。 泛欧斯托克600指数开盘后不久下跌0.7%，各板块涨跌不一，矿业股与石油股领跌，分别下跌3%和 2.3%。 欧洲各大主要股指均低开，英国富时指数、德国DAX指数及法国CAC 40指数跌幅均超0.5%。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：李肇孚 欧洲股市周一重挫，全球市场亦同步走低。 亚太市场隔夜普跌，韩国主要股指领跌，投资者持续关注上周五大幅下挫后的黄金白银价格走势；与此 同时，美股期货周日晚间下跌，交易员密切留意周末遭遇抛售的比特币表现。 比特币周六自4月以来首次跌破8万美元关口，凸显上周五贵金属暴跌后，投资者正进一步削减风险敞 口。 过去12个月涨幅超一倍的白银，上周五暴跌约30%，创1980年以来最差单日表现；黄金同期亦下跌约 9%。 华尔街目光转向英伟达，人工智能热潮相关质疑持续发酵。据知情人士称，英伟达计划向OpenAI注资 1000亿美元的方案已陷入停滞，这家芯片巨头高管对该交易持怀疑态度。 欧洲市场今日将迎来宝盛集团财报，数据方面需关注德国零售销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a decline on February 2, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.25% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange index dropping by 0.85% due to a weak yen and external market influences [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei index closed down by 667.67 points at 52,655.18 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 30.19 points to 3,536.13 points [2]. - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, particularly in securities and commodity futures trading, mining, and banking, which experienced significant drops [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Tokyo stock market opened higher due to a weaker yen against the US dollar, but gains were not sustained [1]. - Reports of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's dominance in the Japanese House of Representatives elections initially boosted the market, but this momentum did not last [1]. - The decline in the semiconductor sector on the New York stock market last Friday negatively impacted Asian markets, leading to a sell-off in Asian tech stocks, which further affected Tokyo's semiconductor-related stocks [1].

在人工智能浪潮席卷全球的今天，我们常常聚焦于芯片、算法和算力的激烈竞争，却忽略了背后一个看 似平凡却至关重要的金属——锡。它，正悄然成为AI算力领域的"隐形冠军"，在科技与资本的交汇点 上，演绎着一场供需博弈的精彩大戏。 锡：AI算力的"基石材料" 锡，这个在地壳中储量稀少的金属，凭借其独特的物理和化学性质，成为了AI算力不可或缺的"基石材 料"。从芯片封装到PCB电路板制造，从光模块到高速连接器，锡的身影无处不在。它如同一位默默奉 献的工匠，用自己微小的身躯，支撑起了AI算力的宏伟大厦。随着AI技术的飞速发展，对算力的需求 呈指数级增长。AI服务器、数据中心等设备的性能不断提升，对锡的需求也日益旺盛。单台AI服务器 的锡用量比传统设备大幅增加，成为推动锡需求增长的重要引擎。可以说，AI算力的每一次突破，都 离不开锡的默默支持。 供应端：结构性紧俏，增量不及预期 价值逻辑重塑：稀缺资源与科技需求的深度绑定 尽管价格短期受挫，但支撑锡市长期向好的核心逻辑依然坚实。供应端的刚性约束日益凸显：全球锡矿 资源稀缺，静态储采年限有限；主要生产国政策调控趋严，新增产能释放缓慢且成本高企；全球显性库 存持续处于历史低位，为 ...

Group 1: Citadel's Entry into Industrial Metals - Citadel, a leading hedge fund based in the U.S., is entering the industrial metals market, marking a shift from its previous cautious stance towards this sector [1] - The firm has appointed Ylan Adler as a portfolio manager to oversee commodity allocations, with a focus on metal trading [1] - This move comes amid rising interest in industrial metals and precious metals trading among major investment institutions [1] Group 2: Surge in Metal Prices - Since the second half of 2025, prices for industrial metals like copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel have surged, with copper futures on the LME rising approximately 40% [2] - Gold prices have skyrocketed, with a historic increase of over 2% recently, surpassing $5000 for the first time, and achieving an 18% increase this month, potentially the largest monthly gain in 40 years [2] - Silver also experienced significant volatility, with a peak increase of over 10%, marking the largest intraday gain since the 2008 financial crisis [2] Group 3: Performance of Mining Companies - BHP Group Ltd. has regained its title as Australia's most valuable company, overtaking Commonwealth Bank of Australia, driven by the rising prices of metals [2] - The mining sector, including companies like BHP and Rio Tinto, is becoming a top choice for fund managers due to increased demand for industrial metals driven by AI and supply constraints [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has risen nearly 90% since 2025, outperforming major indices including those of semiconductor companies and global banks [3] Group 4: Citadel's Previous Success in Commodities - Citadel's commodity business has seen significant profits, earning approximately $8 billion in 2022, which has prompted competitors to follow its lead [5] - The firm has primarily focused on the energy market and has become one of the largest physical natural gas traders in the U.S. [5] - Despite previously avoiding basic metals trading, Citadel's stance has shifted due to market volatility and opportunities arising from geopolitical events [6] Group 5: Competitive Landscape in Metal Trading - Other major commodity trading firms have been expanding their metal trading operations, with competitors like Squarepoint becoming significant players in cobalt and aluminum markets [6] - The hiring spree in the metal trading sector has led to increased compensation packages for metal traders [6] - Citadel's hiring of Adler is seen as a cautious step compared to the aggressive recruitment strategies of its competitors [5]

此外，2月1日印度、沙特股市均出现明显下跌。印度为预算案安排股市特别交易时段，印度Nifty 50指 数盘中一度大跌超700点，跌幅接近3%，其中金属股集体下挫，NIFTY金属指数跌幅一度超过5%，印 度斯坦铜业跌超13%，印度斯坦锌业跌近10%。同日，沙特股市创下近八个月来最大跌幅，沙特全指一 度跌近2.6%，全球金属抛售潮波及当地矿业股，原材料生产商领跌，矿业公司AMAK大跌9.93%，沙特 阿拉伯矿业公司跌9.51%。 2月2日早盘，全球多个品类资产同步出现大幅波动。贵金属市场延续此前跌势，现货白银日内跌幅一度 近8%，最低触及79美元/盎司；现货黄金同步下行，截至7:30报4718美元/盎司。上周五，贵金属市场已 出现史诗级暴跌行情。 国际原油市场同样低开，美油、布油双双跌超2%，分别报63美元/桶和67美元/桶。近期原油价格曾因市 场担忧美国可能对伊朗发动军事打击出现上涨，央视新闻报道，当地时间2月1日，"欧佩克+"成员国同 意维持暂停增产政策，3月不再提高原油产量。 加密货币主要币种持续下挫，Coinglass数据显示，截至北京时间2月2日7:10，比特币跌破77000美元关 口，报76459美元 ...

紫金矿业 20260130 摘要 有色金属回调受多重因素影响：美元指数反弹、美联储政策预期变化、 美国与伊朗危机担忧缓和以及部分金属品种库存回升，共同导致了市场 波动，其中沪铝、沪铜、沪锡分别下跌 4%、3%和 8%。 尽管短期回调，但大宗商品超级周期长期看多，预计持续 3 年以上，受 大国博弈、战略收储、供应链重构和国内反内卷等多重因素驱动，2026 年有色板块仍有较大上涨空间，即使经历 1 月涨幅 30%后的调整，仍保 持 20%以上涨幅。 紫金矿业投资价值较高，核心逻辑在于看多铜价，预计 LME 铜价将达 1.5 万美元，沪铜达 12 万元。尽管年初至今跑输有色大盘，但随着铜价 上涨，其表现将逐步改善，当前宏观环境及供给端约束下，对紫金矿业 持乐观态度。 铜的表现落后于黄金，黄金已上涨 70%。预计未来资金将逐步流入铜市 场。紫金矿业持有紫金黄金国际 87%股份，后者涨幅超 60%，若后续 大票抛压结束，紫金矿业有望迎来补涨。 Q&A 为什么今天有色金属板块出现大跌？ 今天有色金属板块大跌的核心原因是昨晚贵金属价格的剧烈波动，特别是黄金 ETF 的波动率达到了历史峰值。通常，当波动率达到峰值时，黄金价格 ...

高盛：大宗散货交易与研究团队铁矿石问答 20260131 摘要 中国港口铁矿石库存处于历史正常区间，但仅从供需基本面来看，当前 价格区间难以维持。高频数据显示中国铁水产量仍处于高位，印度出口 减少，共同作用下港口库存保持平稳。 全球铁矿石出货量持续增长，供应端表现强劲，但中国钢铁行业面临严 重的供过于求，生产商利润空间受到挤压，钢铁出口的高增速难以持续， 市场或需通过产量下降来重新平衡。 中国矿产资源集团（CMRG）限制钢厂采购必和必拓大块矿产品，减少 了钢厂可获取的铁矿石量，在春节前补库周期支撑了铁矿石指数，但长 期来看，可能导致必和必拓业绩受损。 多数基金在战争相关资产上配置资金，并部署风险敞口在空头端，配对 交易策略中，多黄金空铜策略热度超过多黄金或多金属空铁矿石策略， 反映了市场对铁矿石的谨慎态度。 生产商倾向于在 106-108 美元进行对冲操作，消费商则在 103-104 美 元买入，波动区间有限。大部分创始人仍通过空头配置，财务状况稳定， 但整体来看，市场参与者对铁矿石价格的预期分歧不大。 Q&A 尽管近几个月铁矿石市场基本面恶化，铁矿石价格为何仍维持在 100 美元以上？ 回顾过去六个月，铁矿 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant decline in the performance of non-ferrous metal stocks, with companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit down, and Northern Rare Earth dropping over 5% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs have also seen a decline of over 5% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate that not only precious metals like gold and silver have risen significantly, but industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals like cobalt and lithium, have also shown good growth, with multiple metals reaching historical or phase highs [2] - The super cycle of non-ferrous metals is attributed to three main factors: the weakening trend of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, supply-demand gaps caused by declining ore grades and rising marginal costs in major mines, and domestic policies aimed at optimizing excess capacity [2]