1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory decline slope of copper may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the month - spread, follow - up upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1] - With the easing of the global trade tension and the decline in inventory, the aluminum price is expected to rebound. The month - spread positive arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2] - For zinc, pay attention to the turning point from inventory decline to accumulation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [5] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [8] - Lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically [10] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the medium - long term [14] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term, and there may be short - term replenishment demand from downstream [16] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 430, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 150, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,712. The LME inventory decreased by 5,275 [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelters were eager to sell under the high monthly spread, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80, the domestic alumina price increased by 30, and the Shanghai aluminum social inventory decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [1][2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots was large from January to March. The demand in May is expected to decline slightly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [2] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 975 [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic demand has general elasticity, and the export can be maintained. Overseas demand in Europe has slightly recovered [5] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,924 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level. The overall demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [6][7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of raw materials was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall consumption was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7][8][9] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the spot import profit decreased by 45.78, and the LME inventory decreased by 10 [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The African Alphamin mine has resumed production, and the supply of domestic raw materials is still disturbed. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [12] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 165, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Some factories have cut production, and the downstream demand for organic silicon and polysilicon is declining. The overall supply and demand have reached a tight balance, and the social inventory has started to decline [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 12 - 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 300, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 40 [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production has increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The downstream demand is in a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term [16]

中国有色金属建设股份有限公司监事会 关于2022年限制性股票激励计划相关事项的核查意见 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《深圳证券交易 所股票上市规则》《上市公司股权激励管理办法》等法律法规、规范性文件以及 《中国有色金属建设股份有限公司章程》的规定，中国有色金属建设股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）监事会对公司2022年限制性股票激励计划相关事项进行 核查，并发表核查意见如下： 一、关于 2022 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予部分第一个解除限售期解除 限售条件成就的核查意见 经核查，根据《上市公司股权激励管理办法》及公司《2022 年限制性股票 激励计划（草案）》的相关规定，公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予部 分第一个解除限售期解除限售条件已经成就，本次符合解除限售条件的激励对象 共 195 名，可解除限售的限制性股票数量共 685.4366 万股，占公司目前总股本 的 0.34%。监事会对本次符合解除限售条件的激励对象名单进行了核实，本次可 解除限售的激励对象主体资格合法、有效。因此，同意公司对符合解除限售条件 的股份办理解除限售事宜。 二、关于回购注销 2022 年限制性 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解镍 | 126325 | 126075 | 250 | 0.20% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇 | 127325 | 127075 | 250 | 0.20% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2100 | 2150 | -50 | -2.33% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 125375 | 125125 | 250 | 0.20% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 150 | 200 | -50 | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -196 | -194 | -2 | 0.99% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -4142 | -3657 | -485 | 13.26% | 元/肥 | | 沪伦比值 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, remaining roughly flat at $9,600/ton; SHFE copper futures gained 0.13% to CNY 78,490/ton. US inflation data was lower than expected, and the Fed's flexible attitude towards inflation was seen as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, attention should be paid to the performance of the financial market. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,381 tons. SMM's Thursday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventories increased by 0.89 million tons to 13.20 million tons, ending the continuous destocking trend. With copper prices rising and the expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season, downstream procurement was cautious, and terminal demand orders might gradually slow down. Although the macro - expectation continued to improve, the domestic copper downstream demand showed some weakness. The upward movement of copper prices might be hindered. However, the better - than - expected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations was expected to continue to boost risk appetite, and copper prices were expected to be briefly boosted, with the upward range still seen at CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. When copper prices approached the upper limit of the range, it might bring selling hedging opportunities for the mid - and upstream [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with oscillations. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 2,985/ton, up 0.17%, and the open interest increased by 13,002 lots to 338,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended weakly with oscillations. Overnight, AL2506 closed at CNY 20,220/ton, down 0.07%, and the open interest increased by 1,633 lots to 203,000 lots. The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to CNY 2,936/ton. The spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 60/ton. There were new maintenance activities in Shanxi and Guangxi's alumina. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the market was trading the expectation of ore production restrictions during the rainy season in Guinea. Aluminum ingot arrivals were low, and downstream restocking occurred after price cuts, so aluminum ingots continued to be destocked slightly. The alleviation of the Sino - US tariff situation improved the macro - sentiment. However, the decline in photovoltaic subsidies and the weakening of new export orders, along with the pressure of cost reduction, meant that the short - term strong and long - term weak pattern of aluminum prices continued. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.03% to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.16% to CNY 125,230/ton. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, while domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by CNY 50/ton. Nickel ore prices were still strong, with premiums rising in both the Philippines and Indonesia. In the stainless - steel sector, there was a slight reduction in the supply of the 300 - series, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly. In the new - energy sector, the supply of raw materials recovered, the MHP price declined, and the spot profit of nickel sulfate slightly improved, but the demand for ternary precursors in May decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestically, primary nickel inventories decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and overseas destocking was obvious. The production in May was expected to decrease slightly. In the short term, the macro - sentiment improved, and the Philippine nickel - ore event attracted market attention again, so nickel ore was relatively strong, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish. However, the nickel - iron transaction price continued to decline, and if domestic primary nickel inventories continued to accumulate, the pressure on nickel prices would gradually become prominent, and the overall trend was still oscillatory [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The macro - situation in the US showed lower - than - expected inflation data, which was regarded as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, the financial market performance was a focus. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream demand was cautious. The upward movement of copper prices might face resistance, but short - term boosts were possible due to trade negotiation progress [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices were strong, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There were new maintenance activities, and the market was trading the Guinea ore - restriction expectation. Aluminum ingots were destocked slightly. The short - term strong and long - term weak pattern continued due to various factors [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly overnight. Inventory changes were different in different regions. Nickel ore was strong, but nickel - iron prices declined. The new - energy sector had mixed signals. The overall trend was oscillatory in the short term [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the price of flat - copper decreased by CNY 180/ton, and the premium increased by CNY 40/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by CNY 100/ton, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by CNY 63/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,382 tons. The total domestic + bonded area inventories increased by 0.3 million tons [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 60/ton. The prices of lead concentrates in different regions increased by CNY 50/ton. The LME lead inventories remained unchanged, while the SHFE lead inventories increased by 2,718 tons [5]. - **Aluminum**: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased, and the spot premium increased. The price of alumina FOB increased by $11/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by CNY 20/ton. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,025 tons, and SHFE aluminum warrants increased by 1,397 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 250/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel against Wuxi increased by CNY 1,250/ton. The price of nickel ore remained stable. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, and SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.0%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by CNY 60/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premiums decreased by CNY 80/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75/ton. The SHFE zinc inventories increased by 793 tons, and the social inventories increased by 0.08 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.3%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,100/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 700/ton. The SHFE tin inventories decreased by 190 tons [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: There are charts showing the SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventories**: There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventories**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventories**: There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profits**: There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - products futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and disclosure, and provides high - quality services to listed companies [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations [48].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/16 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 -381.79 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 2025/05/13 -10 799 80705 29157 -370.77 284.15 101.0 117.0 19.17 189650 81275 2025/05/14 -35 1193 80705 50069 -227.87 527.10 100.0 115.0 14.83 185575 77650 2025/05/15 15 1100 80705 60535 -427.30 494.21 100.0 115.0 39.74 184650 76725 变化 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and it is recommended to continue the previous interval trading idea [1]. - For copper, it is suggested to take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term, and there is still optimism in the medium - and long - term [1][6]. - Zinc's rebound is under pressure. It is recommended to try short positions lightly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [1][8]. - Lead's price rebound is under pressure in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin's price rebound is under pressure as supply and demand situation is not favorable [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure. Short - term long positions at low prices can be considered for Shanghai Aluminum [1][10]. - Nickel's price rebounds and then falls. It is recommended to sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel [1][12]. - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation and is in the bottom - building stage in the medium - and long - term [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine negotiations is unclear. Gold prices are in adjustment [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US retail growth slows down, PPI drops significantly, and geopolitical issues persist. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term bull market remains [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may fluctuate after adjustment in the short term, and long - term investors should wait for stability. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8000, 8250] [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai Copper rebounds after being under pressure [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is unstable, and inventory situation is complex. There is a risk of price decline in mid - to late May [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels in the short term. Be cautious about high - level decline risk. Long - term outlook is positive. Shanghai Copper focuses on the range of [77500, 79500], and London Copper focuses on [9400, 9800] USD/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc is in a volatile adjustment under upper pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc supply increases while demand weakens as the consumption off - season begins [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly at high levels in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term. Shanghai Zinc focuses on [22300, 22900], and London Zinc focuses on [2680, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure, and alumina rebounds from a low level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, but demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in excess [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions at low prices for Shanghai Aluminum and pay attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to be stable [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel's price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases, but domestic nickel inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory removal pressure is large [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream consumption. Nickel's main contract operates in the range of [120000, 129000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 rises and then falls, testing the support of the 5 - day moving average [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: Demand is hard to exceed expectations, and lithium price is testing cost support. Supply has no significant reduction, and inventory pressure remains [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lithium carbonate is in a low - level oscillation in the range of [63750, 65102] [14].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265000 | 262100 | 2900 | 1.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 800 | 800 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 265500 | 262600 | 2900 | 1.10% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -18.50 | 15.00 | -33.50 | -223.33% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 我们 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -11580.58 | -11526.88 | -53.70 | -0.47% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.12 | 8.10 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, overnight LME copper rose slightly and then declined. The domestic demand orders may gradually slow down as the peak season turns to the off - season. The Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost copper prices in the short term. Copper prices are expected to reach the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance and potential price fluctuations [1]. - For aluminum, alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Aluminum ingots continue to show a slight de - stocking state. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [1][2]. - For nickel, macro sentiment has improved, and the Philippine nickel ore event has attracted market attention. In the short term, nickel ore is relatively strong, but the overall trend is still oscillating. If domestic primary nickel continues to accumulate inventory, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Trump pressured the Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, and the dollar's V - shaped trend restricted copper price increases. China's April social financing and new RMB loans data and M2 - M1 spread changes were reported. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,075 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 1,749 tons. Domestic demand orders are relatively stable but may slow down. Sino - US trade progress is expected to boost copper prices, with prices expected to reach 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, but attention should be paid to downstream acceptance and potential price drops [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum are oscillating strongly. Alumina AO2509 closed at 2,979 yuan/ton with a 3.51% increase, and AL2506 closed at 20,255 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase. Aluminum ingot prices changed from a discount to a premium. Some downstream processing fees changed. Aluminum ingots continued to de - stock slightly. The short - strong and long - weak pattern of aluminum prices continues, and attention should be paid to inventory - consumption and tariff negotiations [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel rose 0.35%, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.92%. LME inventory decreased by 84 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 398 tons. Nickel ore prices are strong, and some stainless steel production has decreased, but demand - side inventory has increased. In the new energy sector, raw material supply has recovered, and the demand for ternary precursors has decreased slightly. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, but overall, it is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes of various copper products such as flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products were reported. LME and COMEX inventory changes, as well as other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss, were also provided [3]. - **Lead**: The average price and other indicators of lead remained stable, with some minor changes in lead ore prices and processing fees. LME and SHFE inventory changes and import profit and loss were also reported [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices, raw material prices, downstream processing fees, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported. Import profit and loss and other indicators were also provided [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes of various nickel products, including electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, nickel ore, stainless steel, and new energy products, were reported. Inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, as well as import profit and loss, were also provided [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices, including the main settlement price, spot price, and alloy price, increased. TC remained stable, and inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories were reported [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price of tin increased, and the price of tin concentrate also rose. Inventory changes in LME and SHFE, as well as import profit and loss, were reported [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [7][8][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 were presented [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [20][22][23]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [25][27][29]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 were presented [31][33][35]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 were presented [38][40][42]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: Holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. Has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines [45]. - **王珩**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. Focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research and new energy industry chain dynamics [45]. - **朱希**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK. Serves as a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks new energy industry chain dynamics [46].

◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 14 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 1.36%至 78940 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成相关贸易协议，全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解。美通 胀数据低于市场预期，美元走软，隔夜有色金属普涨，铜价小幅上行。 现货市场，日内铜价重心下移，BACK 结构月差有所扩张，下游企业入 市接货情绪难有提振同时由于交割换月临近，持货商大贴水出货情绪有 限。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价回归基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼产出后续存在下滑趋势，不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然 较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小消费表现依然稳中有进，但高 月差抑制了近期消费表现。低库存背景下，铜价或继续维持高位偏强震 荡。技术上看，沪铜短期维持偏强震荡。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 14 日收盘，沪铝主力 06 合约上涨 1.4%至 20275 元/吨。氧 化铝运行产能周度环比减少 55 万吨至 8675 万吨，全国氧化铝库存较节 前减少 13.5 万吨至 328.8 万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在 继续，市场处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。有媒体报道北方某大型氧 化铝企业氧化铝产能或存在违规建设，带动市场情绪 ...