Core Viewpoint - Baiyin Nonferrous (601212) experienced a significant drop, hitting the daily limit down with a trading volume of 22.92 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 5.24% [2] Trading Performance - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's daily limit down list due to a price deviation of -10.58% [2] - The net selling by the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect amounted to 108 million yuan, while the total net selling from brokerage seats reached 231 million yuan [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction volume of 693 million yuan, with buying at 177 million yuan and selling at 516 million yuan, resulting in a net selling of 339 million yuan [2] Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 500 million yuan from main funds today, with large orders contributing to a net outflow of 419 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 476 million yuan [3] Margin Trading Data - As of October 17, the margin trading balance for the stock was 488 million yuan, with a financing balance of 474 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 1.39 million yuan [3] - The financing balance increased by 634,900 yuan over the past five days, reflecting a growth of 0.13%, while the securities lending balance rose by 5.25 million yuan, marking a 60.66% increase [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 44.56 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decline of 15.28%, and a net profit of -217 million yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: China's September economic data was released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" with key economic data missing, and Fed officials signaled potential interest rate cuts [4]. - Fundamentals: Market supply was becoming more relaxed. There was still a rigid - demand base on the demand side, but high copper prices significantly suppressed purchasing willingness, leading to strong market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. - Overall logic: Amid rising Sino - US trade frictions and increased market risk - aversion, in the medium term, the shortage of copper mines and the interest - rate - cut logic remained, suggesting a bullish approach [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, China's September economic data was released, the US government was in a "shutdown", and Fed officials signaled rate cuts [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained flat. In October, with the traditional peak season, the proportion of molten aluminum gradually increased, and overall demand remained stable. The cost support weakened as alumina prices continued to fall, and the overall cost of electrolytic aluminum shifted downward. After the holiday, the second - week social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again, and it was expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventories would enter a destocking trend in the second half of October [6]. - Overall logic: With little change in fundamentals, aluminum prices were expected to continue trading in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the driving impact of the macro - market [6]. Alumina - Macro: The same macro - situation as copper and electrolytic aluminum [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic alumina operating capacity was at a high level. Although a 400,000 - ton operating capacity in Shanxi was cut due to rainy - season supply issues, there was still an oversupply pressure in the domestic alumina market, and the national weekly alumina operating rate decreased slightly. Only a few northern enterprises had taken production - cut actions as the profit margin of alumina was compressed, but the industry still had an average profit compared to the net average price, and there were still long - term order delivery needs. On the demand side, as of last Thursday, the alumina raw - material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.126 million tons, a cumulative increase of 32,000 tons week - on - week. As winter storage approached, some aluminum plants' spot - purchasing enthusiasm had increased, but the overall spot market remained in a state of oversupply [8]. - Overall logic: The alumina market remained in an oversupply situation, lacking new driving factors, and was expected to operate weakly at a low level [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly price changes**: The document shows the weekly cumulative percentage changes of various metals including Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, etc., but specific values are not fully detailed in text form [15]. - **Weekly news**: News included Codelco's increase in 2026 copper premium to European customers, concerns from Japan, Spain, and South Korea about the decline in copper smelting and refining fees, changes in Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper and aluminum delivery points, LME's plan to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal premium, and the cost and profit situation of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in September 2025 [16]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Domestic inflation data**: In September, CPI同比 was - 0.3% (previous value - 0.4%), core CPI同比 was 1.0% (previous value 0.9%), and PPI同比 was - 2.3% (previous value - 2.9%). It was the first time since April 2024 that CPI and PPI both rebounded. The narrowing of the CPI decline was mainly due to the base effect, and the core CPI reached a 19 - month high [18]. - **Domestic import and export data**: In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year (previous value 4.4%), and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year (expected 1.4%, previous value 1.3%). Exports showed a pattern of "strong in Europe, weak in the US", with strong growth in emerging markets. Imports reached a 1.5 - year high, and the quarterly import growth turned positive for the first time after three consecutive quarters of negative growth [20]. - **Next - week macro - outlook**: It includes data such as China's October LPR, 1 - 9 months' national real estate development investment, September industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as events like the press conference on national economic operations and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. For the international market, it includes the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI and the US September CPI and October manufacturing PMI [22]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot market**: The copper processing fee TC remained weak [25]. - **Domestic market**: The open interest of Shanghai copper options reached a new high. The open interest of copper futures, options, and international copper futures showed different trends. The net position of the top 10 traders and the futures closing price of cathode copper were also presented [28]. - **Overseas market**: The US dollar index weakened, and the LME copper price, LME copper basis, and COMEX copper non - commercial net position were analyzed [32]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories of copper in Shanghai bonded areas, SHFE, LME, and COMEX were shown. Social inventories of copper increased week - on - week as of October 16. The weekly operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 62.5% from October 10 - 16, and it was expected to rise to 66.26% from October 17 - 23 [33][38]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic market**: The spot price of electrolytic aluminum turned to par. The A00 aluminum ingot premium, the price difference between primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots, and the social inventories of aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum were presented. The open interest of Shanghai aluminum futures declined [42][43]. - **Overseas market**: The US dollar index weakened, and the LME 3 - month aluminum price, LME aluminum basis, and LME aluminum total inventory were analyzed [47]. - **Downstream开工率**: As of October 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different trends, with some expected to rise and some to fall [48]. - **Recycled aluminum alloy**: As of October 16, the spot price of recycled aluminum alloy increased week - on - week. The supply was tight, demand recovery was less than expected, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the social inventory began to gradually destock. The import loss narrowed [52]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot market**: Alumina spot prices declined, and the prices of alumina in different regions, the average spot price index, and the prices of related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda were presented [62]. - **Futures market**: The inventory of alumina futures increased, and the basis, as well as the relationship between alumina futures prices and the prices of aluminum and caustic soda futures, were analyzed [64]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply decreased slightly as a Shanxi alumina enterprise reduced production. As of October 16, the built - in capacity of Chinese alumina was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons. Demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises remained stable, with some procurement activities [69]. - **Cost and profit**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2980.53 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 34.93 yuan/ton. Ore prices were in a stalemate, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell, and动力煤 prices increased [70].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, maintain a callback buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the mine end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is recommended to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but the potential opening of the export window, it is advisable to wait and see or focus on short - selling opportunities for LME zinc. Consider gradually taking profits on long - short spreads between domestic and foreign markets and focus on reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with weak short - term fundamentals and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with short - term macro uncertainties and potential price - supporting motives from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic risk in the macro, the tin price has a large downside space. In the medium - to - long term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market conditions are dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this round of tariffs is not higher than that of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival perturbation when LME copper dropped 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiations, and the progress of the South Korean negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream price - fixing quantity and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the downstream price - fixing psychological price has significantly increased. The copper cable and aluminum cable starts have a significant divergence, and attention should be paid to whether the start stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and bars due to the festival effect, and the de - stocking amplitude after the festival is considerable, with the apparent demand rising [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, resulting in a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and foreign markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, domestic TC further decreases, and imported TC further increases. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter has exceeded expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting side has a slight month - on - month recovery [2]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the September peak season. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing, with the visible inventory approaching the lowest level in the past two years [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. In terms of inventory, both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty has increased [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill's production schedule in October has a slight month - on - month increase. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are stable [9]. Lead - This week, the lead price oscillates slightly at a high level. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 50,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the tight supply of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate production has increased, and the high smelting profit of primary lead has led to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [11]. - On the demand side, the battery start - up rate has increased this week, but the battery finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started discharging materials [11]. Tin - This week, the tin price oscillates. On the supply side, the ore processing fee is at a low level. Although some scattered orders have tried to raise the quotation, large - scale transactions have not occurred. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was still low, but the recovery in October is highly expected, with an expected maintenance of over 600 metal tons. The export of Indonesia's PT Timah has resumed in mid - to - late September, and the Indonesian president announced that the tin ingot export will return to normal in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery during the solder peak season, mainly supported by rigid demand at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 furnaces in the east. Subsequently, the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease. In the dry season, the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 will be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, the lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly. On the raw material side, the ore end continues to support prices, and holders are reluctant to sell due to the significant reduction of previous inventories, resulting in a tight spot market [15]. - On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continue to exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and there is a de - stocking trend. In October, the de - stocking level is expected to be 8,000 - 10,000 tons. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and supply disturbances in Jiangxi [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Macro factors include tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spreads. Fundamentals show tight copper ore supply, potential smelter production cuts, and high prices suppressing downstream demand. Mid - long term, supply - demand contradictions support price increases, but short - term price spikes may limit demand. The main contract's support is at 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak with supply pressure and low demand. Its price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract in the 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton range. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton range, supported by a warm macro - environment and healthy fundamentals [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is range - bound. Cost support is strong, but supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. Demand is moderately recovering. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton range [5]. Zinc - Supply is becoming more abundant from the zinc ore to zinc ingot end. Demand is lackluster. Macro factors support prices, but the upside is limited. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, while demand is weak. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by macro factors. If Myanmar's supply recovers well, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. Macro uncertainties exist, and the industry has high production and inventory. Prices are expected to oscillate in the 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak. Overseas risks are high, domestic policies are favorable, and demand is sluggish. Prices are expected to oscillate in the 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton range [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Supply - demand gaps are expected to widen in the peak season. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main contract in the 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 84,775 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The import profit and loss is - 686 yuan/ton, up 435.77 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 68.07 million tons, up 3.11% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import profit and loss is - 2,531 yuan/ton, down 278.6 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 62.70 million tons, down 3.39% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.48 million tons, down 2.84% week - on - week [5]. - **Fundamentals**: September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21,850 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The import profit and loss is - 4,530 yuan/ton, down 70.80 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The galvanizing开工率 is 58.05%, up 11.22% week - on - week [8]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The import profit and loss is - 14,530.35 yuan/ton, down 3.89% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory is 5,691.0 tons, down 3.20% [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,350 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The futures import profit and loss is - 874 yuan/ton, up 451 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory is 34,418 tons, up 3.93% week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory is 50.18 million tons, down 0.56% week - on - week [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,350 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread is - 400 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [15].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures moved down and then fluctuated horizontally. Overseas macro events such as Sino - US trade friction, interest - rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and US bank credit crisis are uncertain, and domestic macro data is mixed. After the holiday, inventory accumulation is high, consumption improvement is limited, and supply is gradually recovering, leading to a weakening of supply - demand balance. The focus is on zinc ingot exports. If there is a certain volume of exports, it will improve the domestic oversupply expectation. In the short term, the macro direction is unclear, and fundamental support is insufficient, so zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From October 10th to October 17th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,270 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price dropped from 2984.5 dollars/ton to 2942.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.46 to 7.41; the SHFE inventory increased by 2677 tons to 109,627 tons; the LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons; the spot premium increased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main ZN2512 contract of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated downward and then consolidated horizontally. The LME0 - 3BACK structure expanded, and part of the inventory became visible. After the LME inventory increased slightly, the zinc price stabilized. The final weekly decline was 2.11%, closing at 21,830 yuan/ton. London zinc hit the bottom and rebounded, with a weekly decline of 1.41%, closing at 2942.5 dollars/ton. In the spot market, the supply of goods in circulation was limited, and the spot maintained a small premium. Downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and actual transactions were mainly among traders [6][7]. 3. Industry News - From October 10th to 17th, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, and the average imported ore processing fee increased by 0.25 dollars/dry ton to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short zinc in the next year reached 29.7%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc production will increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025 and by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026, while the demand will increase by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will expand from 85,000 tons in 2025 to 271,000 tons in 2026 [13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and London zinc, the internal - external price ratio, inventory, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates, reflecting the historical data and trends of these indicators [16][20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global aluminum supply-demand situation remains tight in the medium term, supporting the upward trend of aluminum prices. Short-term view is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the price is expected to stay at a low level, and more attention should be paid to further capacity changes [3][99]. Summary by Directory Strategy Outlook - Aluminum - **Derivatives**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3]. - **Macro**: Trump's tariff policy on China has escalated, but there are signs of potential negotiation. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session will study the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. - **Industry Supply**: Overseas, the first - phase of Indonesia's Juwon project with 250,000 - ton capacity is in production. In China, some projects are expected to start production by the end of the year, while others may face delays [3]. - **Industry Demand**: The average weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. Different sub - industries show varying degrees of change in operating rates [3][64]. - **Inventory**: After the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot inventories increased seasonally but then decreased due to price adjustments. Overall inventory is expected to remain above 600,000 tons in the short term [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The panic caused by tariffs has improved, and the tight supply - demand situation supports the upward trend of aluminum prices. Short - term strategy is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices; arbitrage and options are temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Strategy Outlook - Alumina - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina will become more prominent after the downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some producers have started minor production cuts, but it will take time to restore the supply - demand balance. The price is expected to stay at a low level [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Alumina price is expected to stay at a low level, and more attention should be paid to further capacity changes. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [100]. LME Market Performance - Includes data on aluminum ingot import and export profits, LME aluminum speculative fund net positions, LME aluminum price trends, overseas mainstream consumption area spot trade premiums, LME aluminum spot premiums and discounts, and LME aluminum inventories [5][7][9]. Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Inventory Performance - Covers aluminum ingot social inventories, aluminum rod social inventories, bonded area aluminum ingot inventories, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod weekly outbound volumes, and LME aluminum inventory seasonal charts [18][19][21]. Spread Situation - Analyzes price differences such as the Shanghai - Guangdong spread, mainstream consumption area basis, and differences between Shandong and East China aluminum prices [23]. Aluminum Primary Processing Product Processing Fees - Discusses processing fees for products like aluminum rods and aluminum plates in different regions, as well as the scrap - refined aluminum price difference [31][33][37]. Recycled Aluminum Alloy Market Situation - Covers waste aluminum production, ADC12 price, recycled aluminum alloy production, and related price differences and inventories [40][45][48]. Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - Analyzes China's electrolytic aluminum supply volume, production profit, net import volume, and the expected changes in domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity [52][54][58]. Aluminum Processing Operating Rate Situation - The average weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, with different trends in various sub - industries [64]. Photovoltaic Component Production - In October, the expected photovoltaic component production is 51 - 52GW, with domestic production decreasing and overseas production remaining stable [68]. Automobile Sales - In 2025, China's total automobile sales are expected to reach 32.9 million, with significant growth in new energy vehicles, which will drive aluminum consumption [72]. Real Estate Completion - From January to August, the national housing completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year, indicating a weak real estate market [74]. Power Investment and Cable Consumption - As of September 2025, the domestic aluminum rod sample production capacity has expanded rapidly. Orders are expected to be saturated in the fourth quarter and next year, and the weekly operating rate in October is expected to remain stable or slightly increase [86]. Home Appliance Production Scheduling - In September 2025, the total production scheduling of three major white - goods decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the production scheduling of air conditioners is expected to decline in the future [90]. Export Trends - In August, the total export of aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although the impact of tariffs has eased, the export volume is expected to decline this year [94]. Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - Forecasts the global and Chinese aluminum supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2027, including production, demand, and balance [95]. Alumina - Strategy Outlook - **Raw Material**: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is restricted by rain, while imported bauxite supply is increasing but the price remains stable [99]. - **Supply**: Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan have carried out maintenance or production cuts. The national alumina operating capacity has decreased, and the import window has been open [99]. Alumina - Cost and Profit - In September 2025, the average profit of the alumina industry decreased. The profits of enterprises in different regions vary, and some high - cost regions are close to cash - cost losses [105][106]. Alumina - Production Capacity - The operating capacity of alumina has decreased marginally, with some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan adjusting production [110]. Alumina - Overseas Market - The overseas alumina transaction price is decreasing, and the import window remains open. More imported alumina is expected to arrive at ports by the end of the month [114]. Alumina - Futures Inventory - Alumina futures inventories continue to increase, with different inventory changes in various regions [118]. Bauxite - The price of bauxite remains stagnant. Domestic supply is affected by weather, and imported supply is increasing, but the price shows little change [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the uncertain Sino - US trade negotiations with marginal improvement in sentiment, tight copper raw material supply, and improved downstream consumption as prices fall [2][3]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term. Although Sino - US trade tensions are uncertain, sentiment is warming up. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are decreasing, and copper price increases also support aluminum prices [5][6]. - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term as lead ore port inventories rise, smelting开工率 remains high, and downstream demand improves, leading to continuous inventory reduction [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Domestic zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc ingot inventories are rising, and the export window affects the price [10][11]. - Tin prices may remain high and oscillate in the short - term. Supply is tight due to slow tin mine复产 and government crackdown on illegal mining, and demand is improving marginally in the peak season [13][14]. - Nickel prices may be affected in the short - term by Sino - US trade frictions, but in the long - term, they are supported by factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies. Short - term watch is recommended, and bargain - hunting can be considered if prices fall enough [15][16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a high range in the short - term. There is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and social inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be watched in the short - term. Although the current price is close to the cost line and there are expectations of production cuts, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel boosts market confidence, but downstream demand may not support continuous price increases [25][26]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward potential in the short - term. Although sentiment may improve and cost support becomes stronger, the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is large due to increasing warehouse receipts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **行情资讯**: On October 18, LME copper closed down 0.12% to $10,607/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 84,890 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 225 to 137,225 tons. Domestic copper spot import losses narrowed, and the refined - scrap spread decreased [2]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may be strong. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment is improving. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption has improved [3]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On October 18, LME aluminum closed down 0.63% to $2,778/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,925 yuan/ton. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the market was cautious [5]. - **策略观点**: Short - term aluminum prices may oscillate strongly. Sino - US trade tensions may ease, inventories are decreasing, and copper price increases support aluminum prices [6]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On October 18, SHFE lead index closed down 0.19% to 17,083 yuan/ton. Various lead - related prices and inventory data are provided [8]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong. Lead ore port inventories are rising, smelting开工率 is high, and downstream demand is improving, leading to inventory reduction [9]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On October 18, SHFE zinc index closed down 0.59% to 21,836 yuan/ton. Various zinc - related prices and inventory data are provided, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [10]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak. Domestic zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc ingot inventories are rising, and the export window affects the price [11]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On October 17, SHFE tin closed down 0.21% to 280,750 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to slow tin mine复产 in Myanmar and government crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some areas is improving marginally [13]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate. Supply is tight, and demand is improving marginally in the peak season. It is recommended to watch [14]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On October 18, SHFE nickel closed down 0.09% to 121,160 yuan/ton. Nickel iron prices are weak, and refined nickel inventories are high [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term nickel prices may be affected by Sino - US trade frictions, but in the long - term, they are supported by factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies. Short - term watch is recommended, and bargain - hunting can be considered if prices fall enough [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: On October 17, the MMLC spot index rose 2.75%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and lithium concentrate prices also rose [19]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a high range. There is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and social inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery [20]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On October 17, the alumina index rose 0.36% to 2,809 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong decreased, and the import window is closed. Futures inventories decreased [22]. - **策略观点**: Short - term alumina prices are recommended to be watched. Although the current price is close to the cost line and there are expectations of production cuts, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On October 18, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw material prices changed slightly. Social inventories decreased [25]. - **策略观点**: Short - term stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate. The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel boosts market confidence, but downstream demand may not support continuous price increases [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: On October 18, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.49% to 20,390 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream prices were stable, and inventories decreased slightly [28]. - **策略观点**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward potential in the short - term. Although sentiment may improve and cost support becomes stronger, the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is large due to increasing warehouse receipts [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - As of October 18, 2025, 117 listed companies have disclosed their Q3 earnings forecasts, the lowest in the past five years. About 84% of them announced positive news, similar to 2024. Most companies issued pre - increase announcements (60% of all forecasts). Only 10 convertible bond companies disclosed Q3 earnings forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery industries had more positive news. The non - ferrous metals and media industries showed significant improvement compared to 2024. Seven non - ferrous metal companies announced pre - increase, and 2 announced turnaround; 1 media company announced turnaround and 1 pre - increase [2][8]. - Four convertible bond listed companies, Luxshare, Limin, Bojun, and Downtow, reported positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years. Luxshare expects a 20% - 25% net profit increase in Q3, Limin may see a year - on - year net profit increase of over 600%, Bojun expects a 50% - 80% net profit increase, and Downtow's Q3 profit may increase by over 30% [2][13][14]. - The market style may be switching, and geopolitical uncertainties increase market volatility. The risk appetite in the convertible bond market may have declined. Selecting high - quality convertible bonds during the earnings season may be a key strategy, especially those with consistently excellent performance [2][14]. Summaries by Directory 1. Q3 Earnings Forecasts: How to View the Convertible Bond Market - The number of listed companies disclosing Q3 earnings forecasts in 2025 is the lowest in the past five years, with a similar structure to 2024. The proportion of companies with positive news is about 84%, the same as in 2024. In the convertible bond market, only 10 companies disclosed forecasts, half the number of 2024, with 9 announcing positive news [2][6][14]. - Basic chemicals, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and machinery are industries with more positive news. Non - ferrous metals and media industries improved significantly compared to 2024. 15 companies mentioned AI contributions in their earnings forecasts, with 14 reporting positive results and most planning to increase AI investment [2][8][11]. - Four convertible bond listed companies had positive Q3 earnings for two consecutive years, with specific reasons for profit growth provided for each company [2][13][14]. 2. One - Week Market Performance - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.47% for the week; the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 474.22, down 2.35% for the week. The top - three rising industries in the stock market were banks (+4.99%), coal (+4.27%), and food and beverages (+0.85%), while electronics (-7.10%), media (-6.28%), and automobiles (-6.24%) declined [15]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 45 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 11%. The top - five and bottom - five in terms of price changes are listed. 266 convertible bonds' conversion premium rates increased, accounting for 64%, and the top - five and bottom - five in terms of valuation changes are also listed [17]. 3. Major Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reductions - Nanjing Pharmaceutical announced a convertible bond reduction this week. A table shows the convertible bonds with high major shareholder holding ratios and their reduction status [25][26][27]. 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - The primary - market approval process remains fast. Zhongqi Co., Ltd. (1.039 billion yuan), Mankun Technology (760 million yuan), and Huatong Cable (800 million yuan) have board proposals. Haitian Co., Ltd. (801 million yuan) has passed the shareholders' meeting, and Tianzhun Technology (872 million yuan) has received CSRC approval [27][28]. 5. Private EB Project Updates There were no progress updates on private EB projects this week [28]. 6. Style & Strategy: Large - Scale High - Rating Bonds Prevailed This Week - Using month - end rebalancing for back - testing and excluding bonds rated below A - and those with announced forced redemptions, large - scale high - rating convertible bonds prevailed this week. High - rating bonds had a 2.63pct excess return over low - rating bonds, large - scale bonds had a 1.89pct excess return over small - scale bonds, and equity - biased bonds had a - 8.24pct excess return over debt - biased bonds [29]. 7. One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Convertible Bond Valuations Declined - The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate declined. As of the last trading day of the week, it closed at 29.31%, down 0.29% from the previous week, at the 86.5% historical percentile in the past six months and 93.6% in the past year. The median full - scope conversion premium rate increased by 0.78pct to 28.61%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) increased by 1.69pct to 41.46% [40]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium rate closed at 10.58%, down 1.12pct from the previous week, at the 80.6% historical percentile in the past six months. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium rate closed at 10.78%, down 1.43pct from the previous week, at the 71.4% historical percentile in the past six months [40]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of the week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 0 below the bond floor, and 2 with a YTM greater than 3, at the 9.2%, 0%, and 6.7% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively. The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 3.97%, 5.84pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield; the median YTM of AA - to AA+ debt - biased convertible bonds was - 1.48%, 3.59pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [44]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium rate remained flat. After excluding factors such as bond nature and remaining term, it was at the 84.3% historical percentile in the past six months and 68.9% since 2018. Considering only the bond floor, it was at the 82.6% historical percentile in the past six months and 34.8% since 2018 [56].

Group 1 - China's M2 growth in September reached 8.4% year-on-year, with M1 growth at 7.2%, resulting in a record low "scissor difference" for the year [2] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the previous year [2] - The recent inflow of over 20 billion yuan into metal-related ETFs indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the sector, with leading stocks like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting new highs [2] Group 2 - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced a comprehensive push for the reform of medical insurance fund instant settlement, aiming for nationwide implementation by the end of 2025 [3] - The first batch of fund reports for Q3 shows that AI-themed funds continue to perform well, with the Huafu CSI AI Industry ETF yielding 69.31% year-to-date, significantly outperforming other indices [3][4] - 41 equity funds have achieved positive returns for five consecutive years, with Huashang Fund leading in the number of such funds [4] Group 3 - International gold prices have surpassed 4,300 USD per ounce for the first time, marking a historical high, while the World Gold Council notes that overall gold holdings remain low [7] - The Nobel Foundation's investment strategy aims for an average annual return of at least 3% after inflation adjustments, emphasizing balanced financial risk management [7] Group 4 - Recent global stock market performance has been mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining by 1.47% and 4.99% respectively [8] - In the bond market, the yield on 1-year Chinese government bonds rose by 7.43 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points [10] Group 5 - In the recent week, gold prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold up 6.69% and silver up 7.15%, while international oil prices fell by 2.22% [14] - The bank wealth management market is dominated by fixed-income and pure debt funds, reflecting investors' preference for stable returns [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, announced its production targets for gold and silver for 2025, indicating a focus on maintaining operational stability and meeting production goals [1] Group 1 - The company expects to produce 19.13 tons of gold in 2025 [1] - The silver production target for 2025 is set at 542 tons [1] - The company is currently organizing its production and operational activities as planned [1]