Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market was previously driven by macro factors, but currently, the macro - driving force has weakened in the short term, and the fundamentals have not formed an upward drive. After digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's less - than - expected interest rate cut, the steel futures market may turn to a volatile consolidation. The iron ore market has limited price fluctuations, and the price is expected to move in a range. The coal - coke market may see an improvement in the supply - demand structure before the National Day, but the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high inventory of the upper - middle reaches restricts the price. The glass market lacks a clear trend and trading logic due to high inventory and weak demand, and the supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [3][20][33][51][62][88]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut was less than expected, and the market risk preference may be adjusted in the short term. Among the five major steel products, only rebar showed a situation of reduced supply, increased demand, and inventory turning from increase to decrease. The overall steel market is still in the inventory accumulation channel, but the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and there is a replenishment expectation before the National Day [3]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on September 19 and 18, 2025, as well as the corresponding month - spreads, basis, and spot prices [4][7][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The contradiction in the iron ore market is not significant, and the price fluctuation has narrowed. The supply has recovered to a medium - high level, and the overall demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills. The profit of steel mills has declined marginally, and the downstream steel demand is average, with inventory accumulation but a slowdown in the inventory accumulation slope [20]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Presented the price data of iron ore futures contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as daily average hot - metal output, port desilting volume, and global shipping volume [21][27]. Coal - Coke - **Market Outlook**: "Anti - involution" remains the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market participants' expectations for the future are gradually improving, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer before the National Day to improve the supply - demand structure. However, the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices [33]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Included the cost of coal - coke warehouse receipts, basis, month - spreads, and various profit ratios [38]. - **Spot Price Data**: Provided the spot prices of coking coal and coke, as well as import and export profits [39]. Ferroalloy - **Market Logic**: The trading logic of ferroalloys lies in the expectation of supply - side contraction. The production profit of ferroalloys is declining, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken [51]. - **Data**: Presented the daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including basis, month - spreads, and spot prices [52][54]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment and focus are volatile. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the demand is stable. The inventory of the upper - middle reaches is high, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided the closing prices of soda ash futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [63]. - **Spot Price Data**: Showed the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and their spreads [67]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The high inventory of the upper - middle reaches and weak demand limit the price of glass. The supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price lacks a clear trend and trading logic [88]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Presented the closing prices of glass futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [89]. - **Sales Data**: Provided the daily sales data of glass in different regions [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, supply is relatively stable, demand is limited by slow steel inventory reduction, and the cost side provides support. The slow progress of steel inventory reduction is the biggest risk point [5]. - For silicomanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5]. - The trading strategies include a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply is stable with a slight increase in production. The rumor of supply contraction was refuted. Demand is affected by poor steel inventory reduction and low profits, and there is limited room for further growth in hot metal production. The cost side is supported by strong thermal coal prices and stable - to - strong electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas [5]. - **Silicomanganese**: Supply decreases slightly, but the absolute production volume is still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand is dragged down by the continuous compression of steel profits and the decline in steel production. The cost side is supported by the relatively low manganese ore port inventory compared to last year and stable overseas mine quotes [5]. Strategies - **Single - side**: Bottom - oscillating [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis No relevant content provided. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0047 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 36.84%, unchanged from the previous week, and the weekly supply is 113,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 45.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%, and the weekly supply is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,400 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 19, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 198,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,100 tons [12]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou are 5,788 yuan/ton, 5,901 yuan/ton, 6,363 yuan/ton, and 6,102 yuan/ton respectively, all showing losses. The overall cost in the north is 5,824 yuan/ton, and in the south is 6,209 yuan/ton [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu are 5,559 yuan/ton, 5,612 yuan/ton, 5,624 yuan/ton, 5,583 yuan/ton, and 5,633 yuan/ton respectively, all in the loss - making range [41]. Other Data - **Manganese Ore Price**: The price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps are presented in the report [39]. - **Carbon and Electricity Prices**: The prices of Fugu blue charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices are shown [49][52]. - **Steel Mill Bidding Prices**: The monthly procurement prices of Hebei representative steel mills for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are included [55]. - **Monthly Output**: The monthly output and cumulative output of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in China are provided [61][63]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China are presented [68][69]. - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: The price of Fugu metal magnesium and the cumulative production of metal magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi are shown [71]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon in alloy plants and steel mills, the inventory available days of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in steel mills, and the manganese ore inventory in alloy plants, steel mills, and ports are included [74][76][77].

Report Title - The report is titled “Silicon Ferrosilicon: Market Sentiment Fluctuates, Wide - Range Volatility; Manganese Silico - Manganese: Market Sentiment Fluctuates, Wide - Range Volatility” [1] Report Date - The report is dated September 19, 2025 [1] Market Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The market sentiment of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese is fluctuating, and both are in a state of wide - range volatility [1] Key Points by Section 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price is 5756, down 10 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 319,809 and an open interest of 213,520 [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2601: Closing price is 5744, up 2 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 108,408 and an open interest of 97,180 [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511: Closing price is 5948, down 14 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,839 and an open interest of 112,707 [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2601: Closing price is 5970, down 20 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 246,049 and an open interest of 335,397 [1] Spot Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia: Price is 5350 yuan/ton [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia: Price is 5730 yuan/ton [1] - Manganese Ore Mn44 block: Price is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree [1] - Semi - coke small material in Shenmu: Price is 650 yuan/ton [1] Spread Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon spot - 11 futures spread: - 406 yuan/ton, up 10 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese spot - 01 futures spread: - 240 yuan/ton, up 14 from the previous trading day [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread: 12 yuan/ton, down 12 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 - 2601 near - far month spread: - 22 yuan/ton, up 6 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 cross - variety spread: 192 yuan/ton, down 4 from the previous trading day [1] - Manganese Silico - Manganese 2601 - Silicon Ferrosilicon 2601 cross - variety spread: 226 yuan/ton, down 22 from the previous trading day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 18, the price range of 72 silicon ferrosilicon in different regions was: 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 silicon ferrosilicon was: 6000 - 6050 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton (+100) in Ningxia, 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton (+125) in Qinghai, 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton (+50) in Gansu, and Inner Mongolia did not quote. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton in the north and 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in the south [1] - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 17,000 tons of silicon manganese in September, an increase of 900 tons compared to August. The first - round inquiry price was 5800 yuan/ton, and the final price was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August [1] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferrosilicon is 0, and that of manganese silico - manganese is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate weakly. Although the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry and indirectly boost steel demand in the long - term, currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may still decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. - The supply of iron ore has increased, with overseas shipments reaching a high level in the same period. Although the demand for iron ore remains strong in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate as the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a range - bound pattern, and the operation difficulty is high. From a fundamental perspective, they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector, and the operation cost - effectiveness is relatively low [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although there is some support from the demand side, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited [14][17]. - The glass market shows a differentiated trend, with supply slightly increasing and inventory decreasing marginally. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The demand for soda ash is average, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [20][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.66%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14137 tons, and the position increased by 36313 lots. In the spot market, the prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for rebar is weak even in the traditional peak season. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13892 tons, and the position increased by 20862 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Although hot - rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly increased, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.56% (- 4.50), and the position decreased by 936 lots to 53.35 million lots. The weighted position was 84.20 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply of iron ore has increased, with the shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all rising. The demand is strong in the short - term, but the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SM601) of silicomanganese closed down 0.33% at 5970 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of silicomanganese is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 6000 yuan/ton and the support between 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 0.17% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 6 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of ferrosilicon is also in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 5800 yuan/ton and the support between 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8905 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 60). The weighted position increased by 5945 lots to 516168 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 195 yuan/ton and - 105 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although the demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity reduction and the resumption of production on the supply side [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 53205 yuan/ton, down 0.53% (- 285). The weighted position decreased by 5951 lots to 283593 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.1 yuan/kg, and 52.6 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 605 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity integration and downstream price transfer [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1208 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.11% (- 26). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1140 yuan respectively, with the former remaining unchanged and the latter increasing by 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 67.5 million cases (- 1.10%). The atmosphere in the market was bearish [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The spot market shows a differentiated trend. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has decreased marginally due to pre - holiday stocking. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1306 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.10% (- 28). The price in Shahe decreased by 23 yuan to 1216 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 4.19 million tons (- 1.10%), including a decrease of 2.84 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 1.35 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The atmosphere in the market was bullish [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for soda ash is average, and the orders before the National Day have increased, but the transaction is still based on rigid demand. The market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 18, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5970, up 0.24%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5750. The market should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. - On September 18, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5756, up 0.52%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5480, up 20 yuan/ton. The market should also be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5970 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the SM futures contract was 555,005 hands, up 8635 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SM was - 84,324 hands, down 88 hands; the SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 44 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the SM warehouse receipt was 60,996, down 346 [2]. - **Ferrosilicon (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5756 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the SF futures contract was 397,675 hands, up 6551 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 30,708 hands, up 4764 hands; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 106 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the SF warehouse receipt was 17,757, down 100 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the SM index average was 5658 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5530 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 276 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 tons, up 9.30 tons [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 47.38%, up 0.93%; the manganese - silicon supply was 214,130 tons, up 1295 tons; the manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 166,800 tons, up 6300 tons; the national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 122,314 tons, down 1354 tons [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, down 1.50%; the ferrosilicon supply was 113,000 tons, down 2000 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 69,940 tons, up 3380 tons; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,737.40 tons, down 338.70 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.20%, up 4.43%; the crude steel output was 7736.86 tons, down 228.96 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the First Meeting of the Third - Session Standing Council of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Tangshan, Hebei. Relevant proposals and initiatives were reviewed and passed. - In August, China's rebar output was 15.412 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; from January to August, the cumulative output was 128.678 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasizing employment downside risks, believing that inflation has risen, and expecting two more interest rate cuts this year and one next year [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Situation - **Manganese Silicon**: The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 60 yuan/ton; the Ningxia spot profit was - 200 yuan/ton. Steel mills' price - squeezing sentiment was strong in September's steel procurement, but factories also had a strong sentiment to hold prices [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: After the previous profit improvement, the output rebounded rapidly. The cost support was enhanced due to the increase in semi - coke and Ningxia electricity costs. The downstream steel was expected to have some demand release before the festival. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 200 yuan/ton; the Ningxia spot profit was - 250 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS for 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy Daily) [2] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closing price 5756, daily change -10, weekly change 130, trading volume 319809, daily change 154140, open interest 207907, daily change 5613 [4] - SM main contract: closing price 5970, daily change -20, weekly change 132, trading volume 246049, daily change 76765, open interest 335397, daily change 8548 [4] Spot - Silicon ferro - different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., 72%FeSi Inner Mongolia 5450 (0 daily, 40 weekly) [4] - Manganese silicon - different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., silicon manganese 6517 Inner Mongolia 5730 (0 daily, 50 weekly) [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro basis and spreads: Inner Mongolia - main contract -306 (10 daily, -90 weekly), SF - SM spread -214 (10 daily, -2 weekly) [4] - Manganese silicon basis and spreads: Inner Mongolia - main contract -240 (20 daily, -82 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump 40.2 (0.2 daily, 0.4 weekly), South African semi - carbonate 34.3 (0 daily, 0.3 weekly), Gabon lump 40 (0 daily, 0 weekly) [4] - Blue charcoal small materials: different regions' prices and their daily/weekly changes are presented, e.g., Shaanxi 660 (0 daily, 10 weekly) [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Sell straddle option combinations [7] Silicon Ferro - On September 18, the spot price was stable. Supply rumors were false, and the supply remained high. Demand had rigid support from steel production. Market sentiment was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic asset price adjustments, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [6] Manganese Silicon - On September 18, manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the manganese silicon spot price was stable. Supply was high, demand was affected by reduced rebar production, and the cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore. It was in a short - term bottom - oscillating state [6] Group 4: Important Information - On September 18, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.02% was quoted at 34.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump Mn47% at 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian lump Mn41.7% at 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate block at 4.05 US dollars/ton degree (unchanged) [9] Group 5: Related Attachments Figures - Figures show ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, spreads, production costs, and profits in different regions and time periods, such as silicon ferro and manganese silicon monthly spreads, cost - profit analysis in various regions [10][14][16][21][26] Cost - Profit Tables - Silicon ferro cost - profit table shows production costs and profits in regions like Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu [21] - Manganese silicon cost - profit table shows production costs and profits in regions like Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron (72), prices in different regions vary: Ningxia is 5350, Inner Mongolia is 5350, Qinghai is 5370, Shaanxi is 5350, Jiangsu is 5550, and Tianjin is 5750 [1] - For silicon manganese (6517), prices in different regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia is 5730, Ningxia is 5700, Guangxi is 5750, Guizhou is 5700, and Yunnan is 5700 [1] - The closing price of the main contract of CZCE silicon manganese shows fluctuations from 2021 - 2025 [5] Supply - The production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (weekly, with a capacity share of 95%) shows trends from 2021 - 2025 [3] - The production of silicon manganese in China (weekly) ranges from 5500 - 9000 from 2021 - 2025 [5] Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's caliber) shows an upward trend from 12 - 28 from 2021 - 2025 [3][6] - The procurement volume and price of silicon - iron (FeSi75 - B) by Hebei Iron and Steel Group have changed over the years from 2021 - 2025 [3] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China (weekly) ranges from 30000 - 110000 from 2021 - 2025 [4] - The inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) ranges from 6500 - 10000 from 2021 - 2025 [6] Cost and Profit - The electricity prices for ferroalloys in different regions (Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) fluctuate from 2021 - 2025 [4] - The production cost and profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia show different trends from 2021 - 2025 [4] - The profit of silicon - manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North and South regions) has changed from 2021 - 2025 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5990, up 0.47%. For the spot market, Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5750. The market should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. [2] - On September 17, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5766, up 0.24%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5460. The market should also be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,766 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest was 546,370 lots, down 6,931 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 391,124 lots, down 7,322 lots [2] - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest was - 84,236 lots, down 1,479 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest was - 35,472 lots, up 2,789 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 34 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 104 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - SM warehouse receipts were 61,342, up 1,350; SF warehouse receipts were 17,857, up 820 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese - silicon index average was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 306 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis was - 240 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium grade in Shenmu) was 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, up 9.30 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 47.38%, up 0.93%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, down 1.50% [2] - Manganese - silicon supply was 214,130 tons, up 1,295 tons; Ferrosilicon supply was 113,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 166,800 tons, up 6,300 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 69,940 tons, up 3,380 tons [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2] - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 122,314 tons, down 1,354 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand was 19,737.40 tons, down 338.70 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.85%, up 3.47%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43% [2] - Crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau ordered 15 coal mines to suspend production due to exceeding the approved capacity, with an over - capacity of over 10% in H1 2025 [2] - US Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut from now to the end of the year [2] - US media reported that the US asked allies to impose high tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil, and Japan refused [2] - Trump hinted at trade concessions to the UK, and US tech companies like Microsoft and OpenAI promised to invest over $40 billion in the UK, while the UK shelved the US steel zero - tariff plan [2] - Russian oil pipeline operator warned producers to cut output due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key export ports and refineries [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].