2025 年 7 月 29 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 锰硅：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 硅铁：资金与现实博弈，弱势震荡 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2509 | 5840 | -326 | 1,218,323 | 196,312 | | 期 货 | 硅 铁2510 | 5832 | -324 | 102,425 | 40,125 | | | 锰 硅2509 | 6028 | -386 | 1,247,227 | 353,406 | | | 锰 硅2510 | 6032 | -366 | 57,825 | 22,912 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 蒙 | | 5500 | - | 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cost - end support for manganese - silicon has strengthened due to the recent increase in coking coal and manganese ore prices. Under the dual - factor support, northern factory quotes are firm, and profits are gradually recovering. Southern factories are still observing the situation where the futures market drives the spot market, and the cost - inversion situation has decreased. The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy has initially led to a relatively positive short - term macro sentiment, which is beneficial for the rise of spot prices. It is expected that the spot price of silicon - manganese will rise slightly this week; the outlook is neutral. - The spot price is 5950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 78 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; this is a bearish signal. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises in the country is 221,800 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.49 days; the outlook is neutral. - The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20; this is a bullish signal. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing; this is a bearish signal. - It is expected that the price of manganese - silicon will fluctuate this week, with the SM2509 contract oscillating between 5800 - 6100 yuan [3]. Summary by Directory Manganese - Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The report presents the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises over a long - term period [7]. - **Annual Production**: It shows the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [8]. - **Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate**: It provides data on the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese enterprises [11]. - **Regional Production**: It shows the monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Volume**: It shows the monthly purchase volume of silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., as well as the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in China [14]. - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: It presents the monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron and Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability**: It shows the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China [18]. Manganese - Silicon Import and Export - It shows the monthly import and export volume of ferromanganese - silicon in China [20]. Manganese - Silicon Inventory - It presents the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, as well as the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [22]. Manganese - Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: It shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods to China [24]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: It provides data on the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory in China [26]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: It shows the weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: It presents the daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port [29]. - **Regional Cost**: It shows the daily cost of silicon - manganese in different regions, including Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30]. Manganese - Silicon Profit - It shows the daily profit of silicon - manganese in different regions, including the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial products led by polysilicon and coking coal hit the daily limit one after another. Positive policy expectations also drove ferrosilicon and silicomanganese to hit the daily limit on Friday. However, the fundamentals changed little, with weak demand in the off - season and continuous increase in supply as enterprise profits improved. Currently, the main changes are in coal raw materials and macro - policy expectations. Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are following macro - expectations rather than industrial logic. Without demand improvement, continuous premium on the futures market is not conducive to long - term price rebounds. The industry is still advised to sell for hedging in a timely manner, and pay attention to the important meetings and policies at the end of the month [4][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - The profits of manufacturers have recovered, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a larger increase in production. The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 102,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%), and the output in June 2025 was 414,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.13%) [4][6] 3.1.2 Demand - The pig iron output is at a high level with a slight seasonal decline. The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [4][9] 3.1.3 Inventory - Manufacturers have reduced inventory for two consecutive weeks. The enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 5.38%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.25 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 days) [4][11] 3.1.4 Cost - The raw materials remained stable during the week. The prices of electricity, semi - coke small materials, anodes, iron oxide scale, silica, etc. did not change, but the profits in some regions increased significantly [12][14] 3.1.5 Basis - The basis of the ferrosilicon main contract in Ningxia quickly turned negative after the futures market hit the daily limit on Friday. The basis of the 09 contract was - 316 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 388 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 5,600. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [4] 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - The operating rates in both the northern and southern production areas have increased, and the increase in production has expanded. The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 186,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%), and the national silicomanganese output in June was 752,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1%) [22][24] 3.2.2 Demand - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the seasonal operating rate of steel mills has declined. The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 123,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 866,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.97%) [22][26] 3.2.3 Inventory - After production cuts, the inventory pressure of manufacturers has decreased. The manganese ore inventory increased last week, and oxidized ore has arrived at ports one after another. The enterprise sample inventory was 205,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.27%), and the inventory days of steel mills in July were 14.24 days (a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.19 days) [22][29] 3.2.4 Cost - The quotation of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has continued to rise. The prices of some manganese ores and chemical coke have increased, driving up the production cost of silicomanganese [33][36] 3.2.5 Basis - The futures discount has slightly narrowed. The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton [22][31] 3.2.6 Strategy Recommendation - It is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels for speculation. The lower support is around 6,000. Manufacturers should choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, prices vary by region and grade, with different daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5500, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 270 [1]. - For silicon manganese, there are also price differences across regions and varieties, and price trends are presented over different time periods [5]. Supply - The production of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises (with a capacity - share of 95%) shows different trends from 2021 - 2025, and the capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi also vary [3]. - The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided, and the procurement volume and price of silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also presented [5]. Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons) from 2021 - 2025 is shown, and the relationship between silicon iron demand and factors such as steel production is also reflected in related data [3][6]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China shows different trends from 2021 - 2025, and the inventory situation of silicon manganese also has corresponding data [4][6]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions are presented, including production costs, spot profits, and export profits [4][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodity market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the opening of coking coal contracts, coking coal contracts rose and then fell, leading to a full - scale correction in black commodities. In the current summer season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market has high expectations for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant pull - up and subsequent correction [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the market is in the off - season. Iron water production is under great pressure to decline, and the room for further increase is limited even in the peak season. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, with future arrivals expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the trade ore inventory is high. With the decline of coking coal and coke prices, iron ore is also expected to adjust, and the short - term price is likely to maintain a high - level shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Situation**: After the coking coal contract restrictions, black commodities corrected. The production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased last week, with factory inventory decreasing for the second consecutive week and social inventory increasing for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties rose, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory may rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant increase and subsequent correction [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and consider buying at low prices after a full adjustment for short - term operations. Do not chase rising or falling prices for investors with empty positions [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The closing prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan (1.88%) from the previous day and 209 yuan (6.64%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 927.08 tons, up 4.97 tons (0.54%) from the previous week; the social inventory of threaded steel was 372.97 tons, up 2.81 tons (0.76%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 211.96 tons, up 2.90 tons (1.39%) from the previous week; the hot - rolled coil production was 317.49 tons, down 3.65 tons (-1.14%) from the previous week [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: The steel mill profitability is around 60%. The iron water production of 247 steel mills is 242.1 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous week. In the off - season, iron water production is under pressure to decline, and the increase space is limited even in the peak season. The global shipment is high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade ore inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a strong rise, the futures price has been falling, and it is likely to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing rising prices, and wait patiently for a correction before buying at low prices for short - term operations [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 802.5 yuan/dry ton, up 17.5 yuan (2.23%) from the previous week; the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 766 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan (-1.16%) from the previous day but up 16 yuan (2.13%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1404.9 tons, down 165.0 tons (-10.51%) from the previous week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 833.2 tons, up 123.3 tons (17.37%) from the previous week. The northern six - port arrival volume was 1389.2 tons, up 241.3 tons (21.02%) from the previous week [4]. **III. Industry News** - At the "Seminar on Building a Healthy Ecosystem: Coping with Malicious Industry Involution" hosted by leading manganese - based enterprises, relevant enterprises reached two preliminary consensuses: 30% energy - saving and emission - reduction for high, medium, low, and micro - carbon ferromanganese production enterprises, and 40% for silicomanganese alloy production enterprises. To ensure stable production costs after production cuts, several ferroalloy production enterprises have actively increased their manganese ore reserves, locking in nearly one million tons of raw materials [6]. - The shipment of Ghanaian manganese ore has been affected by the rainy season since May. The shipments in May - July were 350,000 tons, 277,000 tons, and 380,000 tons respectively, with a reduction of 47%, 58%, and 43% compared to the monthly average output. The impact of the rainy season in Ghana is expected to last until November [6]. **IV. Steel Mill and Port Data** - For 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, flat compared to the previous week and 1.13 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but 1.20 percentage points higher than last year; the profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from the previous week and 48.49 percentage points higher than last year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4223 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from the previous week but 2.62 million tons higher than last year [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13.79038 million tons, up 51,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1515 million tons, down 75,900 tons. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14.39568 million tons, up 141,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, down 94,300 tons [7]. - Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong markets raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1420 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1770 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Steel Silver E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 7.5103 million tons, up 116,600 tons (+1.58%) from the previous week; the inventory of construction steel was 3.9746 million tons, up 42,900 tons (+1.09%) from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to be strong. The cost side strongly supported steel prices. With low inventory levels, the market is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to policy signals, especially those from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3]. - The "anti - involution" sentiment drove up the prices of some commodities, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [11][15]. - For glass, short - term prices are expected to be strong due to policy support and inventory reduction. In the long term, it depends on real estate policies and demand. For纯碱, short - term prices may be strong, but the upside is limited due to fundamental supply - demand contradictions [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.882%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3507 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton (1.475%), with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and an increase in positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supported steel prices. The supply and demand sides both had positive factors, and the low inventory level led to an expected continuous rise in the market. However, the subsequent market depends on policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (- 8.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 101.37 million hands. The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 28.73 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The daily average pig iron output remained high, and both port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - economic conditions [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6414 yuan/ton, up 7.83%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6166 yuan/ton, up 7.16% [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment dominated the price increase, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there are issues of over - supply and weakening demand [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9725 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment drove up prices, but there are risks of a decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there is a problem of over - supply and insufficient demand [13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. With policy support and inventory reduction, short - term prices are expected to be strong, and long - term prices depend on real estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. Short - term prices may be strong due to market sentiment and cost factors, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand contradictions [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon - manganese, the fundamentals have relatively limited contradictions. The strengthening of coal at the cost - end strongly supports the alloy price. Driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. The short - term market fluctuates greatly, and cautious operation is recommended. The reference range for the main contract is [6155, 6675] [3][4] - For ferrosilicon, this week's fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. Currently, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, the price may still have room to rise. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5955, 6375] [52][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manganese - Silicon 1.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 6414 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 6090 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 324 yuan/ton [7] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 50 - 170 yuan/ton [8] 1.2 Supply - As of July 25, the total national silicon - manganese output was 186,480 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,640 tons; the operating rate was 41.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. Inner Mongolia's daily average output increased by 150 tons/day; Yunnan's daily average output increased by 160 tons/day, and the operating rate increased to 85.38% [13] 1.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for silicon - manganese was 123,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 289 tons. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 million tons; the weekly output of rebar was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [17] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for silicon - manganese alloy in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 14,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared with June [21] 1.4 Inventory - The total inventory of alloy plants was 205,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,300 tons [22] 1.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,736.34 yuan/ton and 6,240.59 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 56.34 yuan/ton and - 540.59 yuan/ton respectively [27] 1.6 Manganese Ore - As of July 25, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port increased slightly. South32's August manganese ore quotes to China showed some price adjustments [29][33] - The shipping and arrival volumes decreased month - on - month, and the decline in the port clearance volume slowed down. The port inventory was expected to remain at a low level in the short term [4] - As of July 18, the total national port inventory was 4.285 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42,000 tons; Tianjin Port's inventory was 3.42 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 64,000 tons [38] - The average available days of manganese ore inventory in alloy plants was 13 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.36% [41] 1.7 Other Costs - The power price in the production area remained stable, and the ex - factory price of chemical coke in Ningxia was 1,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with last week [44] 2. Ferrosilicon 2.1 Market Review - As of July 25, the closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract was 6,166 yuan/ton, the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,900 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 266 yuan/ton [56] - Spot prices in the main production areas increased by 250 - 300 yuan/ton [57] 2.2 Supply - As of July 25, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; the operating rate was 32.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88% [60] 2.3 Demand - As of July 25, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 20,065.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52 tons [63] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group's procurement price for ferrosilicon alloy in July was 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with June; the procurement volume was 2,700 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with June [66] - In June, the output of magnesium ingots decreased month - on - month, and the export volume of ferrosilicon continued to decline month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of ferrosilicon was 200,047 tons, a decrease of 22,498 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [69] 2.4 Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [70] 2.5 Cost and Profit - The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,421 yuan/ton and 5,274 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were 79 yuan/ton and 226 yuan/ton respectively [74] - The price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi was 540 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared with last week [74]

硅铁&锰硅观点：情绪冲击盘面，合金博弈加剧 | 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 | | --- | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint n 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，周五市场上受到锰铁企业会议信息的影响，情绪冲击盘面价格，使得价格走势涨停。 n 宏观：国家发展改革委修订印发《固定资产投资项目节能审查和碳排放评价办法》，对项目用能和碳排放情况进行综合审查评价；锰铁相关会议召开，提出锰系工厂 开展节能计划，减少污染排放等相关内容。海外：美国与贸易对手关税谈判进度加快，本周与日本、印尼、菲律宾关税政策落地，第三轮中美贸易谈判将于下周一、 二举行，全球不确定性缓和，进一步提升市场风险偏好。 n 微观：铁水产量环比微缩，但日产量仍高于240万 ...

反内卷资金轮动 合金短线偏强 银河期货大宗商品研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 9 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 1 套利：多硅铁空锰硅止盈离场； 期权：观望。 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端，随着近期价格上涨，硅铁、锰硅产量均有小幅回升，未来或还有进一步上行动力，但需要关注龙头企 业会议后是否对产量进行控制。需求方面，钢材需求表现仍有韧性，钢联样本五大品种钢材表需基本平稳，247家钢厂铁水 产量环比略有下降，总量保持高位，对合金存在刚需支撑。成本端方面，本周电价总体平稳，港口锰矿价格小幅上涨。总体 来看，合金呈现供需双增格局，基本面总体较为健康。 市场情绪方面，锰硅头部企业准备召开"反内卷"会议，商讨产量控制以应对行业竞争。商品市场目前本就以反内卷为交易 主线，受此消息提振，硅铁、锰硅期价大幅增仓后双双涨停 ...