光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-20 下游轮胎开工率环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14030元/吨，较前一日变动+20元/吨。NR主力合约12280元/吨，较前一日变动-50 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13880元/吨， 较前一日变动+30元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1655美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11650元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降 1.2%。 据隆众资讯了解，目前国内全钢胎企业开工稳定为主，前期个别检修企业装置运行恢复至常规水平，整体供应量 较为充足，市场对后期价格看空心态，进货积极性相对平淡，当前来看，轮胎企业出货虽有一定促销伴随，但暂 无直接降价计划，短期内根据实际销量情况，灵活调整销售测略为主。 我 ...

能源化工期权 2025-06-20 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/6/20 | | | 指标 | 5/20 | 6/12 | 6/17 | 6/18 | 6/19 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 12070 | 11035 | 11485 | 11740 | 11770 | 30 | 735 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 16991 | 21103 | 16181 | 16777 | 15134 | -1643 | -5969 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 94802 | 121876 | 111310 | 104964 | 81102 | -23862 | -40774 | | | | 仓単数量 | 10290 | 12820 | 12290 | 12290 | 6630 | -5660 | -6190 | | | | 虚实比 | 8.26 | 8.23 | 6.58 | 6.83 | 11.41 | 5 | 3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 330 | 515 | 115 ...

【原料及现货】截至6月19日，杯胶48.30（+0.65）泰铢/千克，胶乳57.75（+0.25）泰铢/千克。云南胶 水收购价13300（0）元/吨，海南新鲜胶乳14100（+200）元/吨，全乳胶上海市场14000（0）元/吨，青 岛保税区泰标1710（-10）美元/吨，泰混13850（0）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至6月19日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为71.54%，环比+1.56个百分点， 同比-8.52个百分点。半钢胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，部分企业为满足订单需求适度提产，另有个别 企业因电厂检修，生产暂停，限制周内样本企业产能利用率提升幅度。中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率 为61.39%，环比+2.69个百分点，同比-0.45个百分点。上周检修的样本企业排产逐步恢复至常规水平， 带动全钢胎企业整体产能利用率走高。 1-5月，泰国出口混合胶合计为74.7万吨，同比增55%；混合胶出口到中国合计为74.2万吨，同比增 59%。 【逻辑】供应方面，下旬海外降雨有缓和预期，利于新胶出量，月底云南替代种植指标逐渐进入，对国 内供应明显施压。需求方面，6月中下旬轮胎终端市场处于逐步恢复阶段，然周期内物流 ...

BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 08 合约报收 11765 点，上涨+135 点或 +1.16%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11700 元/吨，山东民营顺 丁报收 11600 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11600 元/吨，华南地区茂名石化 顺丁报收 11800 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11900 元/吨。山东地区 丁二烯报收 9550-9600 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 09 合约报收 14070 点，上涨+40 点或 +0.29%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 13900-14000 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 14900-15000 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 12185 点，下跌-50 点或-0.41%；新加 坡 TF 主力 09 合约报收 163.4 点，下跌-1.1 点或-0.67%。截至前日 18 时，泰标 近港船货报收 1710-1750 美元/吨，泰混近港船货报收 1700-1750 美元/吨，人民 币混合胶现货报收 13850-13870 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日 ...

Group 1: Siling Co., Ltd. (斯菱股份) - Siling Co., Ltd. is enhancing equipment utilization and product quality through differentiated product manufacturing, a complete supply chain system, and flexible production lines, covering mainstream global vehicle models [1] - The company plans to establish a robotics components division in 2024, focusing on the research and mass production of harmonic reducers, with core equipment already in place and a second production line planned [1] - Siling's Thailand factory has obtained origin certification and is expanding capacity with a third-phase investment, while its North American operations utilize an FOB model, minimizing tariff impacts on customers [1] Group 2: Yongli Co., Ltd. (永利股份) - Yongli Co., Ltd. possesses strong market responsiveness and industry-leading technical research capabilities in the lightweight conveyor belt sector, with a comprehensive product range [2] - The company is transitioning from a lightweight conveyor belt manufacturer to a solution provider, leveraging the advantages of electric rollers, which are simple in structure, easy to install, and energy-efficient [2] - In 2024, overseas sales are projected to account for 54.19% of total revenue, with plans to strengthen global business development and brand building [2] Group 3: Huatai Fund (汇添富基金) - Huatai Fund, established in 2005, has an asset management scale of 904.883 billion yuan, ranking 10th among 210 firms [3] - The fund manages 710 public funds and has 96 fund managers, ranking 7th in both categories [3] - The best-performing public fund in the past year is the Huatai North Exchange Innovation Selected Two-Year Open Mixed A, with a net value of 1.66 and a growth of 130.81% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of global IPO markets in the first half of 2025, with Hong Kong leading in IPO financing [1][7] - Deloitte's report indicates that Hong Kong's IPO financing reached 102.1 billion HKD, a significant increase of 673% compared to the previous year [7][9] - The A-share market also saw growth, with 50 new IPOs raising 37.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 14% increase in both the number of IPOs and financing compared to the previous year [3][6] Group 2 - Zhejiang province had two companies among the top five A-share IPOs, with Zhongce Rubber leading at 4.1 billion RMB [4][6] - The report anticipates that the A-share market will become more active in the second half of the year, particularly for high-tech companies, due to new policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [6][9] - Hong Kong's IPO market is expected to attract more companies, with over 170 listing applications in process, and a projected total financing of 200 billion HKD for the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongding Company (SZ000887) reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and profit for the year 2024, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 18.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.33% compared to 2023 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.25 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.63% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.08 billion yuan, up by 10.06% from the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.95 yuan, an increase of 10.47% compared to 2023 [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 22.82%, an increase of 1.10% year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin was 6.62%, up by 0.17% from the previous year [2] Expense Management - Total operating expenses for 2024 were 2.57 billion yuan, an increase of 138 million yuan compared to the previous year [2] - The expense ratio was 13.63%, a decrease of 0.47% year-on-year [2] - Sales expenses decreased by 9.57%, while management, R&D, and financial expenses increased by 7.16%, 7.97%, and 30.30% respectively [2] Employee Statistics - The total number of employees at the end of 2024 was 22,935, a slight decrease of 248 from the previous year [3][4] Executive Compensation - Total compensation for directors, supervisors, and senior management in 2024 amounted to 10.80 million yuan [6] - The highest-paid executive, Chairman and CEO Xia Ying Song, received 1.62 million yuan, a slight decrease from 1.65 million yuan in the previous year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Nengzhiguang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Nengzhiguang") has successfully passed the IPO review on the Beijing Stock Exchange, aiming to raise 160 million yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance - Nengzhiguang's revenue from 2021 to 2024 was 529 million yuan, 556 million yuan, 569 million yuan, and 611 million yuan respectively, with net profits showing significant fluctuations [5][6]. - The company reported a substantial increase in net profit in 2023, reaching 50.8 million yuan, a 173.31% increase compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The gross profit margins for the years 2021 to 2024 were 12.29%, 12.03%, 16.85%, and 17.05%, indicating a notable increase in 2023 [7][8]. Regulatory Scrutiny - The regulatory body has raised concerns regarding the authenticity and sustainability of Nengzhiguang's reported performance, particularly focusing on the significant increase in gross profit margins and net profits in 2023 [5][9]. - The company was asked to provide detailed analyses of its top 20 customers, including revenue, gross profit, and gross margin changes, as well as the reasons behind the increase in high-margin product sales [4][12]. Customer Base and Revenue Recognition - Nengzhiguang has a diverse customer base, with the top five customers accounting for 23.05%, 22.87%, 22.30%, and 19.36% of revenue from 2021 to 2024, indicating a low concentration of revenue [14][15]. - The company confirmed that it does not engage in practices such as premature revenue recognition and has robust internal controls for revenue recognition [15][17]. Raw Material Costs and Pricing - The primary raw materials for Nengzhiguang include PP, PE, and POE, which account for over 80% of total costs, making the company vulnerable to fluctuations in the petrochemical industry [7][9]. - The company stated that it generally adopts a "market price + negotiation" approach for raw material procurement, ensuring that procurement prices are fair and aligned with market trends [9][10].