Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both rebounded, with inflation expectations remaining unchanged [1][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds continues to widen [1][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with trading heat in sectors such as light industry, retail, military, textiles, communications, and real estate all above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - The volatility of major indices has generally increased, with the volatility of sectors like communications, electric power, and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Institutional Research - Research activity is concentrated in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, with an upward trend in research heat for non-ferrous metals, computers, and textiles [3][42]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases in forecasts for sectors including pharmaceuticals, coal, automobiles, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals [4][21]. - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased across the A-share market [4][17]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, continuing to net sell A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell amounts in sectors like communications, electronics, and finance has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, chemicals, and automobiles [5][31]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought sectors such as communications, machinery, and home appliances, while net selling occurred in pharmaceuticals, computers, and electronics [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level since late July 2025. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and military [6][39]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, retail, and electronics has increased [6][38]. Hot Stocks Trading - The trading volume on the "Dragon and Tiger List" has increased, with sectors like retail, light industry, and electric power showing relatively high and rising trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with significant increases in positions in sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and retail [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with mid/small-cap growth and mid-cap value has increased, while the correlation with large-cap growth and large/small-cap value has decreased [8][48]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to decline, with both active and passive fund sizes decreasing [8][50].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry continues to strengthen, with significant activity in commercial aerospace, satellite internet, and large aircraft sectors, leading to notable stock performance and ETF growth [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 15, the defense and military ETF (512810) rose by 1.54%, reaching a two-month high, and significantly outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 over the past week [1][6]. - Notable stocks such as Aerospace Electronics and Fushun Special Steel hit their daily limit, while Steel Research and Zhenray Technology saw substantial gains [1][6]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to deepen the digital transformation of the manufacturing sector and advance the development of 6G technology and satellite internet [3][8]. - The government is focusing on building information infrastructure and promoting the integration of artificial intelligence with manufacturing [3][8]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Analysts indicate that advanced military technology is spilling over into civilian sectors, creating new industries worth trillions, such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, future energy, deep-sea technology, and large aircraft [3][8]. - This spillover is expected to drive the development of new processes, materials, and devices, fostering a positive cycle of "military technology benefiting civilian applications and vice versa," which will further elevate the growth ceiling of the defense and military industry [3][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) covers various hot themes including commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, low-altitude economy, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI, making it an efficient tool for investing in core assets of the defense and military sector [3][8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, adopting a dovish stance, leading the market to shift focus towards domestic policy expectations and economic priorities for the upcoming year [1] - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a similar pattern to the previous week, characterized by two upward movements and a mid-week adjustment, closing below the 60-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index performed stronger, closing above the 60-day moving average, while the average daily trading volume in both markets increased significantly to approximately 1.9337 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] Group 2 - Market hotspots last week were primarily concentrated in the military and telecommunications sectors, with small and mid-cap stocks, as well as technology stocks, leading the gains, while large-cap blue-chip stocks experienced slight adjustments [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is in a recovery phase after a rapid adjustment in mid-November, finding support above the low point from early October, although it faced another downward adjustment after filling a gap [1]

向阳花开，乘势而上——2026 年 A 股年度策略 20251214 摘要 2025 年市场由流动性驱动，万得全 A 指数上涨 25%，估值提升贡献 20%，盈利支撑仅占 5%，主要受益于国家队支撑、险资流入及居民存 款转移等增量资金。 预计 2026 年 PPI 将回升，中性预期下年底或达-0.7 左右，与全 A 非金 融企业盈利增速和 ROE 一致，盈利增速有望达 10%左右。 PPI 弱回升情境下，沪深 300 指数 ERP 可能降至负一倍标准差，对应指 数涨幅约 10%，即从 4,000 点涨至 4,500 点左右。 微观流动性依赖外资和居民存款搬家，外资回流受限，需依赖银行理财 到期及收益率下行吸引居民资金入市，券商启动是关键。 券商板块对引导散户资金入市至关重要，券商股短期快速上涨通常伴随 市场中小单净流入量占比提升，预计 2026 年一季度可能重现。 2026 年一季度是全年确定性最强窗口，政策发力、经济预期乐观、流 动性宽松及事件催化，是布局净值最佳时机，下半年市场或震荡。 春季躁动行情或提前至 2025 年底至 2026 年 1 月上旬，成长风格胜率 高，关注软件、传媒中的游戏、机器人、创新 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16% [1] - Key sectors such as CPO, energy metals, and lithium mining saw significant declines [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3865.40, down 0.62%, with a trading volume of 81.74 billion [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 13150.43, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 120.77 billion [2] - ChiNext Index: 3157.32, down 1.16%, with a trading volume of 55.12 billion [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that copper should be the next major commodity following gold and silver, highlighting the strong performance of precious metals and the complex economic factors influencing the U.S. economy [3] - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of policy dividends and economic trends for investment opportunities, focusing on sectors like AI, new energy, and aerospace [4] - Open Source Securities believes the recent market correction has ended, recommending early positioning for spring trading, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [5] - Huatai Securities advises attention to AI computing power and other sectors, suggesting a shift towards seasonal and policy-driven themes while reducing exposure to cyclical consumer sectors [6] - Industrial growth in technology is expected to lead the market, with a focus on AI applications and semiconductor industries as key areas for investment [7]

3. 中信建投：跨年行情蓄势待发 A股上涨的底层逻辑并未改变，目前市场已经基本完成调整，跨年有望迎来新一波行情。中期行业配置 方面，重点关注具有一定景气催化的有色金属和AI算力板块;主题投资方面，商业航天为主线，可控核 聚变和人形机器人也可适当关注。此外，港股市场中的潜在热点主要集中在互联网巨头、创新药两大方 向。 上周A股市场风格分化，成长风格整体走强。主要指数中，沪指累跌0.34%，深证成指累涨0.84%，创业 板指累涨2.74%。通信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨;煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产板块下跌。 后市市场将如何演绎?且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 中信证券：内外兼顾，寻求交集 从中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心，定位和去年相似。但对于股票市场而言，内需品 种和外需品种的预期和定价与去年存在巨大差异：去年底投资者对外需普遍谨慎，对内需充满期待，但 最终外需的表现大超预期;今年是重仓布局外需敞口品种，预期相对充分，但对内需品种欠缺信心;实际 上，明年外需继续超预期的难度在加大，但内需可期待的因素在增多。从这些角度来看，海外敞口品种 业绩兑现力强，但估值继续提升难度大;内需敞口品种景气度一般 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference has set the tone for 2026 economic work, with expectations for a "cross-year market" and "spring excitement" rising among broker reports [1] - The policy focus on "expanding domestic demand and countering involution" is expected to lead the market out of deflation, with technology sectors like AI computing power and commercial aerospace being key offensive directions [1][4] - There is a growing preference for low-volatility, high-dividend assets, indicating a potential market style switch [1][3] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests seeking intersection in configurations, focusing on products with overseas exposure and positive changes in domestic demand as catalysts [2] - The report emphasizes that while external demand products have been validated, the potential for exceeding expectations is limited, and investors' low expectations could lead to valuation elasticity if domestic demand surprises positively [2] - The focus remains on industries where China has a global share advantage, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, with an emphasis on companies that can enhance global pricing power [3] Group 3 - The market is expected to enter a new phase of recovery, with significant support from previous price levels and a shift in investor sentiment following recent adjustments [5] - Structural risks are emerging, which could hinder the sustained strength of advantageous themes, as indicated by high transaction concentration [5][6] - The focus on low-volatility and stable return assets is increasing, with potential interest in service consumption sectors like aviation, duty-free, and hotels [3][12] Group 4 - The central economic work conference has highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and addressing involution, clarifying the path out of deflation [7][19] - The emphasis on enhancing the income of middle and low-income groups and stimulating private investment indicates a shift towards endogenous growth drivers [7] - The conference also pointed out the need for a unified national market and the deepening of anti-involution measures, which are crucial for the recovery of corporate profits and subsequent improvements in resident income [8] Group 5 - The new policy deployment is expected to support the A-share market's cross-year performance, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [9] - The historical performance of the A-share market during the start of the "13th Five-Year" and "14th Five-Year" plans suggests a positive outlook for 2026 [9] - The report indicates that the market may experience fluctuations due to various domestic and international events, but the overall economic policy is expected to remain supportive [9] Group 6 - The AI industry is characterized by a competition in full-stack capabilities and deep penetration into various application scenarios [10][11] - Domestic firms are focusing on building a full-stack system in the computing hardware sector, with significant advancements in AI solutions and infrastructure [11] - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to drive growth in related sectors, including telecommunications and high-spec data centers [11][16] Group 7 - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a period of heightened activity, supported by new policies and government initiatives [17] - The establishment of a national commercial aerospace development fund aims to attract private investment and enhance the capabilities of commercial companies [17] - Recent advancements in satellite internet and frequent launches are expected to benefit the entire aerospace industry chain [17]

人民财讯12月15日电，华泰证券研报称，上周，美联储FOMC会议与中央经济工作会议先后落地，国内 出口、通胀、金融数据先后发布，总量级别的突破或尚需等待，产业线索是投资者交易的重点。11月下 旬以来，AI链带动科技成长整体反弹，而内需顺周期资产调整是对前述变化的"预定价"，上周市场整体 波澜不惊。展望看，华泰证券认为，当前仍处于春季躁动的布局窗口，布局思路做微调，增配季节性/ 产业性/政策性主题品种，减配内需型顺周期。对应地，行业上，建议关注AI算力(关注市场对利空因素 的定价反馈)、锂电/储能、军工、部分化工品、铜、家电(抢出口主题的高胜率行业)。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - The defense and military industry has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market indices. The Shenyuan Defense Military Index increased by 2.80%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.34% during the same period [1][15]. - The report highlights significant individual stock performances, with top gainers including Xibu Materials (+40.98%) and Zhongci Electronics (+40.65%) [2][19]. - Key announcements from companies in the sector include expected daily related transactions by AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group totaling approximately CNY 23.04 billion for 2026 [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The Shenyuan Defense Military Index rose to 1,785.95 points, marking a 2.80% increase from the previous week. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,889.35 points, a decrease of 0.34% [1][15]. - The defense military sector ranked 2nd among 31 sectors in terms of performance during this period [15][16]. 2. Stock Performance - The top ten performing stocks in the defense military sector for the week included Xibu Materials (+40.98%) and Zhongci Electronics (+40.65%), while the bottom performers included ST Aowei (-16.09%) and ST Wanfang (-10.20%) [2][19][20]. 3. Key Company Announcements - AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group announced expected related transactions totaling CNY 23.04 billion for 2026 [3][21]. - Super卓航科 released a draft for a restricted stock incentive plan, proposing to grant 330,000 shares to 11 individuals, representing 0.37% of the company's total share capital [3][21]. -航宇科技 issued a technology innovation bond with a total issuance amount of CNY 100 million [3][21]. 4. Industry News - The report includes significant industry news such as the first inclusion of the KJ-500A in the Sino-Russian joint air force strategic patrols [11][22]. - Germany plans to deploy long-range firepower in 2026, including advanced missile systems, as part of an agreement with the United States [11][22].

本周，A股三大指数震荡，科技成长板块表现突出，创业板指全周上涨近3%。 展望后市行情，业内机构认为，临近年底，市场震荡的结构特征或将延续，行情轮动速度较快，重点关 注明年政策红利与景气方向的布局机会；短期和长期来看，科技占优的条件依然未变，部分超跌成长行 业的机会已经有所显现。 影响后市投资大事件 央行：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具 深市指数样本重要调整，下周一生效 12月15日起，深证成指、创业板指、深证100、创业板50等深市指数样本调整将生效。其中，深证成指 调入德明利、沃尔核材、拓维信息等，创业板指调入双林股份、常山药业、富临精工等，深证100指数 调入藏格矿业、国货航、东山精密等，创业板50指数调入常山药业、菲利华、协创数据等。本次调整进 一步强化了指数对新兴产业的表征性，实现"质效焕新"。 机构后市投资观点 中国银河：重点关注明年政策红利与景气方向机会 短期来看，临近年底，市场震荡结构特征或将延续，行情轮动速度较快，重点关注明年政策红利与景气 方向的布局机会，看好四个方向：一是人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚变、量子科技、航空航 天等政策提及重点领域；二是"反内卷"政策温和推进，制造 ...