Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "July Rebound" phenomenon in the A-share market, highlighting its historical patterns and potential investment opportunities based on behavioral finance and market trends [1][2]. Historical Performance - Over the past 15 years (2010-2024), the average return of the A-share index in June was -1.1%, while in July it rebounded to 0.9%, indicating a typical "bottoming-out and rebound" pattern [2]. - The success rate of the July rebound over the past 15 years was only 60%, with notable exceptions such as a more than 15% decline in July 2015 due to a liquidity crisis [2]. Structural Characteristics - The July market typically exhibits structural characteristics, with high success rates in sectors like military, new energy, and resource industries such as steel, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, driven by policy expectations and industry cycles [2]. Driving Forces Behind July Rebound - The July rebound is supported by three main factors: liquidity recovery, policy signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting, and the onset of mid-year earnings reports, which can enhance market sentiment and structural opportunities [5]. Investment Opportunities - In July, focus on sectors with earnings forecast discrepancies and recovery potential, including non-US export chains, price increase chains, AI chains, and financial sectors [6]. - The military sector is expected to benefit from policy and event-driven catalysts, particularly during the transition from the 14th to the 15th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The technology sector, especially AI, is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to favorable valuations and market sentiment [6]. - Resource sectors are likely to see improvements due to seasonal demand and price increases in the third quarter [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's armed forces confirmed an attack on a Russian company involved in the production of drone warhead components, indicating ongoing military actions targeting critical defense infrastructure [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The attack was carried out on the "Applied Chemistry Research Institute" located in Sergiyev Posad, Moscow Oblast, which is currently engaged in the production of thermobaric warhead components for attack drones [1]

市场消息：德国准备订购价值250亿欧元的坦克，以增强北约部队的兵力。 ...

Group 1 - The German government is in discussions to purchase Patriot air defense systems from the United States [1] - The intention is to provide these systems to Ukraine [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese equity market, highlighting a shift in global perception of Chinese assets and the potential for A-shares to catch up with the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the coming months to a year [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recent months have shown a recovery in the Chinese market, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding quickly after initial shocks from tariff disputes [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 27.64% from September 24, 2024, to May 31, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index has risen by 19.53% during the same period, indicating a stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four key sectors are highlighted for future investment: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries [4][5]. - AI is seen as a core direction for global technological development, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and related hardware [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow, driven by advancements in research and development within Chinese companies [7]. - The consumer sector is viewed as having no clear distinction between "new" and "old" consumption, with opportunities arising from cultural exports as China continues to grow as a super economy [4]. - The power battery sector remains promising due to its vast market potential across various applications, including energy storage and robotics [5]. Group 3: Healthcare Sector Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical market is anticipated to be a long-term trend, with China's pharmaceutical capabilities aligning with global standards [7]. - Investment opportunities are focused on companies in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and high-value consumables, with a preference for firms with strong clinical and sales capabilities [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The future performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to domestic demand, which is influenced by residents' income expectations [9]. - Recent consumer subsidies in sectors like automotive and home appliances have created opportunities, and sustained policy support could further drive growth [10]. Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to play a crucial role in overcoming current economic challenges, with AI development projected to continue for decades [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in smart driving and humanoid robots, with the latter expected to see production growth in specific industries [12]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Resource Insights - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, with opportunities for Chinese brands to compete globally due to improved product performance and stability [16]. - Resource-related companies are also highlighted, as limited supply supports pricing and profitability [16]. Group 7: Financial Sector Outlook - The banking sector has shown resilience, with improved performance attributed to better-than-expected corporate conditions outside the real estate sector [18]. - As the economic outlook improves, expectations for the banking sector are also anticipated to recover [18]. Group 8: Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The white liquor industry is undergoing adjustments primarily due to inventory cycles and operational challenges, with potential for recovery as internal adjustments take place [21].

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to experience a likely upward trend with fluctuations, driven by performance support and favorable policies [1][8] - The market is currently facing uncertainties due to the approaching deadline for tariff suspensions, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1][8] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices in the A-share market rose, reaching new recent highs, with increased individual stock activity and a recovery in market profitability [4][5] - The trading volume showed some contraction, indicating a lack of strong enthusiasm from investors to chase prices [1][8] - The market is influenced by external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, particularly in U.S.-China relations [4][8] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, particularly in innovative drugs, supported by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration aimed at promoting high-quality development in innovative drugs [6] - The consumer electronics sector also saw significant gains, attributed to trade agreements affecting import tariffs on products from Vietnam, which may enhance the competitive edge of Chinese manufacturers [7] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected mid-year performance, focusing on those with anticipated improvements [9] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution to avoid overvalued speculative stocks [9] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting strategic buying during pullbacks [9]

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3475.24 | 10540.00 | 1426.61 | | +14.09 +0.41% | +5.42 +0.05% -15.56 -1.08% | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 984.02 | 2168.03 | 5345.71 | | -0.93 -0.09% | +3.95 +0.18% | +5.57 +0.10% | 7月4日早盘，三大指数窄幅震荡。截至午间收盘，沪指报3475.24点，涨0.41%，深成指报 10540.0点，涨0.05%，创业板指报2168.03点，涨0.18%。 总体来看，盘面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3700只个股下跌。 从板块来看，游戏股走强，稳定币概念股活跃，脑机接口、银行、电力板块涨幅居前；军工板块调 整，固态电池、贵金属板块走低。 半日主力资金流向 主力资金早间净流入银行、医药生物、计算机等板块，净流出电力设备、有色金属等板块。 具体到个股来看，沃尔核材、协鑫能科、数据港获净流入22.85亿元、9.93亿元、9.64亿元。 2025.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities anticipates an improvement in the military industry sector's performance in the second quarter of 2025, driven by increased orders and favorable financial results from mid to upstream companies [1] Short-term Outlook - The second quarter earnings season is expected to show improvement due to the release of first-quarter orders and high inventory levels, which may enhance the performance of certain mid to upstream enterprises, gradually benefiting downstream companies [1] - Orders for military components are projected to reverse the downward trend by June, with order growth expected to turn positive in the second half of the year as secondary demand is released [1] Mid-term Outlook - The year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, which is expected to bring more industry catalysts in the third quarter, alongside positive earnings expectations from some companies in the second quarter, creating structural investment opportunities [1] Long-term Outlook - The ongoing India-Pakistan conflict is enhancing the visibility of China's military industry, leading to a significant moment for military trade, with domestic demand and military trade resonating to open up demand for military equipment [1] - The centenary of the military establishment in 2027 is approaching, suggesting a sustained period of high prosperity for the industry over the next three years [1]

Group 1 - The surge in the consumer electronics sector is driven by government subsidy policies and advancements in AI technology, leading to increased sales of smartphones and tablets [3] - Companies like Water Crystal Optoelectronics are capitalizing on the demand for smartphone camera filters, indicating a significant market opportunity [3] - The AI hardware market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of AI smartphones doubling and smart glasses sales increasing sevenfold, driven by breakthroughs in edge AI chips [3] Group 2 - The market is currently in a phase of reduced trading volume, indicating a period of consolidation and caution among investors, which may present opportunities for long-term investments [4] - The military industry is undergoing adjustments, with companies like China Shipbuilding Emergency Management experiencing significant declines, as capital shifts towards more certain sectors like consumer electronics and AI [4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the military sector remains positive due to ongoing trends in national defense modernization [4] Group 3 - Overall market activity is lively, but there is a need for a long-term perspective, especially regarding the potential overheating in consumer electronics and AI hardware sectors [5] - The current reduction in trading volume allows for more in-depth research into company fundamentals, rather than focusing solely on short-term market movements [5] - The adjustment in the military sector provides a chance to evaluate companies with solid orders and technology, suggesting a potential rebound post-adjustment [5]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 削减支出方面，参议院加大医疗等福利支出削减力度、加快退出风电等新能源补贴。 医疗补助削减规模 从8000亿美元扩大到9300亿美元，或使1030万名低收入人群失去保障；食品券支出收紧；9月30日起取消 新能源购车抵免；为安抚农村票仓，新增250亿农村医院基金。 报告正文 2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。法案包括哪些内容？《美丽大 法案》的经济影响有多大？ 一、《美丽大法案》立法进展？参议院投票通过，立法进入冲刺阶段 《美丽大法案》已通过参议院投票环节，立法进入冲刺阶段。 北京时间2025年7月2日，《美丽大法案》 在参议院以51比50的微弱优势获得通过。三名共和党参议员柯林斯、蒂利斯、保罗因医保支出、债务上 限等问题与47名民主党人共同投票反对，副总统万斯投出关键一票。 流程上，法案仍需众议院审核，法案内容存在进一步修改的可能。 后续立法流程为：众议院规则委员会 审议→辩论→众议院投票→总统签署生效。预计众议院最早于美国时间7月2日上午审议该法案。若众议 院否决参议院的修改，则可能需进一步谈 ...