Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is generally weak. Although steel product prices show a slightly stronger oscillation, they are under overall pressure. With the end of the parade, steel mills in Tangshan have resumed production, and the export volume increased slightly last week but remains in a weak oscillation pattern. The demand for steel is weak in the peak season, and the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, prices may decline further. The raw material end is more stable than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron after the important nodes. The price of ferroalloys continues to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The market is gradually shifting from trading on expectations to trading on the real - world situation, and the prices will move closer to the fundamentals. For manganese silicon, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. For silicon iron, attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies [7][11][12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the supply pressure exceeding the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [15][16][18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.354%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 222,549 tons, a net increase of 896 tons. The main contract position was 1.736432 million lots, a net decrease of 18,381 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, a net decrease of 301 tons. The main contract position was 1.283425 million lots, a net increase of 34,343 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rebar apparent demand remains weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure intensifies. The hot - rolled coil production reduction is significant, the apparent demand decreases significantly month - on - month, the overall demand is moderately weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The steel price is under obvious pressure due to high production and insufficient demand. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the disk shows weak characteristics [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.87% (+14.50), and the position increased by 41,053 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 821,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.16% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has increased recently. The daily average molten iron output decreased significantly, mainly in North China. The port inventory has increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron [7]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On September 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5730 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.43% at 5496 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys continue to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The manganese silicon market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes and relevant policies. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.29% (+25). The weighted contract position decreased by 3039 lots to 481,904 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.07% (+35). The weighted contract position decreased by 3866 lots to 316,993 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with supply pressure exceeding demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and strong influence from news [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, also unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, a net increase of 484,000 weight cases (+0.77%) month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1190 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a net increase of 2800 tons (+0.15%) [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices remaining unchanged across various regions, while demand from downstream sectors is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing strategy [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in North China are at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1210-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In East China, light soda ash prices range from 1130-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - Other regional prices for light and heavy soda ash are also reported, with no significant changes noted [1]. Index Analysis - As of September 3, the light soda ash price index is at 1175.71, and the heavy soda ash price index is at 1231.43, both remaining stable compared to the previous working day [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On September 3, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1267 CNY/ton and closed at 1276 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.24% [5]. - The market is experiencing a slight rebound, but the overall fundamentals remain weak, influenced by factors such as the solar industry's internal competition and potential production halts from major manufacturers [5]. Market Outlook - Future predictions indicate that as production facilities resume operations and fewer companies plan maintenance, market activity may gradually increase [6]. - However, with weak downstream demand and a focus on essential purchases, the soda ash market is expected to continue a stable but weak trend in the short term [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass demand remains weak with high inventory and insufficient production cuts, leading to a weak price trend; soda ash supply is high and demand may weaken further with new capacity coming online, so the price is under pressure [1] - The supply - demand surplus in the ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon industries is obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release, with prices expected to follow the sector's fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Directory Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures oscillated, and downstream procurement was cautious; soda ash futures had a narrow - range oscillation, and downstream demand was mainly for replenishing inventory [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass demand is weak, high inventory pressure persists, and production cuts are insufficient; soda ash supply is high, and demand may weaken further as new capacity is put into operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass and soda ash are both expected to oscillate weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Ferrosilicon manganese futures fell 0.21% to 5732 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 5650 - 5730 yuan/ton; ferrosilicon futures fell 0.14% to 5520 yuan/ton, and the spot price was slightly reduced [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon have increased production and sales and reduced inventories, but the supply - demand surplus is still obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release [3] - **Strategy**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with both light and heavy soda ash showing significant declines compared to previous periods [1] Price Trends - As of September 3, the average ex-factory price of light soda ash in China is 1,223 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.1% decrease month-on-month and a 25.1% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average terminal price of heavy soda ash is 1,308 yuan/ton, showing a 3.5% decrease month-on-month and a 24.2% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Operations - The summer maintenance of soda ash production facilities has largely concluded, leading to a gradual increase in industry operating rates [1] - Despite the increase in operating rates, many manufacturers are currently operating at a loss due to the weak market prices [1] Market Sentiment - The futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a prevailing cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The short-term outlook for the domestic soda ash spot market remains under pressure [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume declines, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,276 yuan/ton, the basis is -101 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5-year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward; bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,267 yuan/ton | 1,165 yuan/ton | -102 yuan | | Current Value | 1,276 yuan/ton | 1,175 yuan/ton | -101 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.71% | 0.86% | -0.98% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is -48.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is -58 yuan/ton. The soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, and the operating rate has declined seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 719,100 tons, including 383,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacities of 6.4 million tons in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned new production capacity of 7.5 million tons in 2025 (with 1 million tons actually put into production) [22]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - For downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate of 75.49% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [28][34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market has entered a new downward trend, with a decline of over 8% in the 2601 contract since August 15, 2023, despite a temporary easing of supply pressure due to seasonal maintenance [1] Supply Analysis - The traditional maintenance season for soda ash is in summer, leading to a significant decline in domestic supply recently. However, long-term supply pressure remains due to high weekly production levels, the resumption of previously maintained facilities, and new production plans [1] - As of August 28, 2023, weekly soda ash production was 719,100 tons, a decrease of 6.78% month-on-month but an increase of 6.77% year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate was 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points month-on-month but up 1.68 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Short-term production is expected to increase due to higher operating rates at natural soda ash plants, although some previously maintained facilities face high production costs and challenges in resuming operations. Overall, supply is expected to continue growing in the short term, while medium to long-term supply pressure remains significant due to reduced maintenance in the fall and steady new capacity additions [1] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - Since the beginning of the year, production costs for soda ash have decreased. From 2025 onwards, the price of raw salt has significantly dropped, with a 25% decline noted in early September [2] - The theoretical production costs for soda ash in East and North China are between 1,250 to 1,270 RMB per ton, with current spot prices nearing the cost line. Earlier in the year, soda ash futures prices fell below the production cost line, reaching a low of 1,147 RMB per ton, but recent policy changes may provide some support to production costs [2] Demand Outlook - The solar photovoltaic industry has indicated a need for better industry regulation and quality standards, which may support future demand for soda ash used in solar glass production. Additionally, the float glass sector has seen increased production capacity, which could further drive soda ash demand [3] - As of September 1, 2023, total inventory of soda ash in domestic manufacturers was 1,819,300 tons, a decrease of 4,820 tons week-on-week, indicating a potential for reduced inventory levels [3] - The overall shipment volume of soda ash was 762,300 tons last week, reflecting a 1.06% increase month-on-month, with an overall shipment rate of 106.02%, up 8.23 percentage points [3] - In the short term, demand for soda ash is expected to improve, supported by cost stabilization, while in the medium to long term, the industry remains in an expansion phase, leading to ongoing supply and inventory pressures [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure overall, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term soda ash main contract. - The glass market is expected to continue consolidating. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract. The glass supply remains at a low level, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory reduction trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of a restocking market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1276 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; glass main contract closing price: 1135 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 141 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1420969 lots, down 10459 lots from the previous day; glass main contract open interest: 1324537 lots, down 3230 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 295010 lots, down 16840 lots from the previous day; glass top 20 net open interest: - 203082 lots, down 350 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 5082 tons, down 118 tons from the previous day; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2026 tons, down 5 tons from the previous day. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 3 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; glass September - January contract spread: - 195 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash basis: - 102 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; glass basis: - 79 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1165 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Central China light soda ash: 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Shahe glass sheets: 1056 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day; Central China glass sheets: 1090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points from the previous week; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points from the previous week. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged from the previous week; glass in - production production lines: 224, up 1 from the previous week. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 181.93 tons, down 4.82 tons from the previous week; glass enterprise inventory: 6256.6 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 104 ten - thousand weight boxes from the previous week [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new construction area in real estate: 352060000 square meters, up 48416800 square meters; cumulative value of real estate completion area: 250340000 square meters, up 24673900 square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple soda ash production enterprises have reduced production, shut down for maintenance, or reduced their loads, including Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical, Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical, etc. - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure. The inventory reduction process may be repeated. - Glass: Supply remains at a low level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory reduction trend remains unchanged. There is a possibility of a restocking market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].