Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges investors face during a normal valuation period, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a clear strategy and emotional discipline in the face of market fluctuations and structural rotations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Emotional Challenges in Normal Valuation Period - Investors often experience a "fear of missing out" during this phase, leading to anxiety about not participating in rising markets while holding onto their investments [6][8]. - There is also a sense of fatigue from waiting for valuations to drop, causing doubts about whether the opportunity for low valuations has passed [7][8]. - The lack of clear feedback during normal valuation periods can lead to impulsive decisions, such as chasing hot sectors or abandoning established strategies [9][10]. Group 2: Strategies for Navigating Normal Valuation Period - It is crucial to respect position discipline and avoid chasing prices or making hasty exits when valuations are not in the low range [12][16]. - Investors should shift their focus from buying logic to holding logic, assessing whether their holdings deviate from normal value ranges and if rebalancing is necessary [13][14]. - Maintaining a strategy and reducing exposure to market noise is essential, as frequent changes in sector focus can disrupt long-term plans [15][17]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective - The article emphasizes that enduring the quiet periods of normal valuations prepares investors for future opportunities during undervalued and overvalued phases [18]. - The focus should be on refining strategies and managing emotions, ensuring that when market conditions change, investors are ready to act without being swayed by short-term fluctuations [18][19].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has seen a 1.10% increase, with notable gains from companies like SenseTime-W and Oriental Selection exceeding 5% [1] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) has outperformed other indices, rising over 1% during trading [1] - The trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached 2.62 billion, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - The HSSCITI's top ten weighted stocks account for 75.01%, with major players like Kuaishou-W and SMIC leading the pack [2] - The concentration of AI leaders such as Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30% within the top-weighted stocks, highlighting a strong focus on technology [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is currently benefiting from the AI innovation wave, with historical trends suggesting potential for significant returns [2] Group 3 - Long-term trends indicate a rising premium for China's technology sector, with notable excess returns since 2005 [3] - The technology sector has shown high elasticity and sustainability during various market cycles [3] - New industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are gaining policy support, indicating a shift towards localization in core technology sectors [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF is positioned to capitalize on the "pure technology revolution" opportunities presented by the AI era [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) is experiencing positive performance, with significant gains in key component stocks, indicating a favorable market environment for technology investments in Hong Kong [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 10, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) increased by 0.10%, with notable gains in component stocks such as InnoCare Pharma rising nearly 6% and BYD Electronics and Sunny Optical Technology rising nearly 5% [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 1.88% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 24.4556 million [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the ETF reached 315 million [1]. Group 2: Index Performance - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) saw an intraday increase of 0.49%, outperforming other indices such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet and Technology indices [1]. - The latest market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF stands at 1.295 billion [1]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The HSSCITI's latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) is 21.08, which is in the 0.75 percentile over the past year, indicating that the valuation is lower than 99.25% of the time in the last year, suggesting a historical low [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of July 8, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSSCITI include Kuaishou-W, SMIC, Xiaomi Group-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, Lenovo Group, Bilibili-W, Sunny Optical Technology, and Kingdee International, collectively accounting for 75.36% of the index [2]. - Notably, the combined weight of leading AI companies Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30%, alongside core "hard tech" stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, forming a concentrated group of technology leaders [2]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - According to GF Securities, the premium center of China's technology industry is expected to continue rising, with significant excess returns observed in Hong Kong's technology sector since 2005 [2]. - The technology sector has shown high elasticity and sustainability during various market cycles, with each increase in technology premium closely linked to industrial transformations, typically occurring in approximately five-year cycles [2]. - Current core industries in technology are entering a localization phase, with new productivity sectors such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy receiving policy support [2].

Group 1 - The core event was the simultaneous listing of five mainland companies and one ETF on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant moment for the market [1][2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown resilience and vitality, with over 200 companies currently in the IPO queue, indicating a potential for more simultaneous listings in the future [1][3] - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong completed 42 IPOs, raising over HKD 107 billion, a 22% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, making it the leading global market for IPOs [3][4] Group 2 - The active performance of the IPO market is attributed to ongoing reforms by regulatory bodies and improved valuations and liquidity in the Hong Kong market [4] - Deloitte forecasts that by 2025, there will be 80 new listings in Hong Kong, raising HKD 200 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates [4] - Southbound capital has been a positive factor for liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with net inflows reaching HKD 211.26 billion in just five trading days in July [4][5] Group 3 - The secondary market's activity is a key driver for attracting companies to list in Hong Kong, although there has been a recent slowdown in the upward momentum of major indices [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on technology, consumer, and high-dividend opportunities in the Hong Kong market, with a particular emphasis on the pharmaceutical and discretionary consumption sectors [6]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides analysis and trading strategies for financial and commodity futures and options, suggesting that the stock index is in a bullish cycle and the bond market is expected to strengthen, while the black and building materials sectors are expected to stop falling and stabilize. Summary by Directory Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Oscillating with a bullish bias - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IM2507 - **Core Logic**: Support policies are continuously implemented, overseas tariff risks are rising, the technical form shows a potential upward trend, and market risk appetite is increasing [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds are bullish - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - position approach for T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Inter - bank liquidity is loose, and there is an increasing expectation of policy support due to weak fundamentals [3][4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Black and Building Materials Sector** - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil - **Intraday View**: Short - term shift between long and short positions, with weakening downward drivers - **Medium - term View**: Stop falling and stabilize - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in the call option RB2510 - C - 3000 and adopt a short - position strategy for the RB2510 straddle option (range: 2900 - 3200) - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure on steel raw materials is expected to ease, reducing the potential supply pressure on finished steel products [5]

Market Overview - On July 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.02%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.43%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.66%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.21%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.12% [4]. - The best-performing industries on July 7 were comprehensive (+2.57%), utilities (+1.87%), real estate (+1.68%), light industry manufacturing (+1.52%), and environmental protection (+1.1%). The worst-performing industries included coal (-2.04%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.97%), telecommunications (-0.77%), home appliances (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.67%) [4]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 7 was 1,227.1 billion yuan, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 12.067 billion Hong Kong dollars [4]. Key Insights Light Industry Manufacturing - The report emphasizes a trend in consumer growth industries, advocating for a balanced investment in value stocks [5]. - The market outlook indicates that the first half of 2025 saw insufficient national subsidies and weak overall consumption, leading to a structural growth in "new" consumption [5]. - The underlying logic of "new" consumption is attributed to generational shifts and changes in consumer attitudes during the economic transition period. Despite full pricing, mid-term performance growth is expected to digest valuations, making the second half of the year a clear investment focus for the sector [5]. - Key drivers include the sustained prosperity of new consumption and the performance turning point for traditional consumption [5]. - Recommendations include focusing on growth in consumer experience and prioritizing quality manufacturing stocks that have solidified their bottom lines [5]. Strategy Insights - The report projects that in Q3 2025, the domestic equity market may be dominated by local factors, suggesting banks as a stable investment while recommending balanced allocations in brokerage, military industry, and TMT sectors [6]. - The report notes a potential slowdown in the global trend of "de-dollarization" and emphasizes the need for rebalancing in dollar asset allocations. It suggests that U.S. stocks may show resilience beyond expectations, although caution is advised regarding potential inflationary pressures [6]. - Key factors to monitor include the expiration of the 90-day tariff exemption on China by the U.S. in mid-August and the earnings reports of U.S. stocks for Q2 2025 [7]. - The report highlights that the current dollar is likely entering a prolonged downtrend, with U.S. Treasury rates expected to remain high and volatile in Q3 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Appropriate realization and waiting for layout opportunities. Currently, the convertible bond market is facing supply - demand contradictions and high valuations. In the context of potential increased volatility in the equity market, convertible bonds may face valuation adjustment pressure. Short - term investment should focus on large - cap debt - biased varieties, avoid bonds with overly high downward - revision expectations, realize profits appropriately, maintain a flexible position, and wait for the next layout opportunity [2][45]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Appropriate Realization, Waiting for Layout Opportunities - **Market Performance in Q2**: The equity market showed a deep "V" trend in Q2. The convertible bond index rose 3.4%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. The low - price index rose 2.7%, and the equal - weighted index rose over 4% [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: In Q2, convertible bond supply accelerated, with 11 new issues and a scale of 8 billion yuan. However, due to maturities and forced redemptions, the total scale decreased by over 55 billion yuan compared to Q1. The short - term supply supplement is limited. On the demand side, it first decreased and then increased. In June, there was a large - scale capital inflow [13][21]. - **Valuation Analysis**: The valuation of balanced convertible bonds rose significantly at the end of June, breaking through the annual high. The valuation of debt - biased convertible bonds reached a historical high, while the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds remained at a low level [39][40]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Equity Market: Index Continued to Rise Strongly - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rose 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The market trading volume rebounded, and the theme hotspots rotated actively [47]. - **Style and Sector Performance**: Industries such as steel and building materials led the rise, while the banking sector reached a new high for the year. Some sectors such as computer and non - bank finance declined [47]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of all A - shares was 15.76X, and the PE (TTM) of the ChiNext was 36.38X, both showing an upward trend [48]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Market: Valuation Continued to Rise - **Index and Trading Volume**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 447.46, rising 1.21%. The average daily trading volume was 64.766 billion yuan, a 11.85% increase from the previous period [54]. - **Individual Bond Performance**: Dianhua, Saili, and Anke led the gains, while Jinji, Sanyang, and Jingduan led the losses [54]. - **Valuation**: The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity of 90 - 110 was 26.42%, and the average YTM of convertible bonds with a parity below 80 was - 0.27%, indicating a significant increase in valuation [56]. 3. Convertible Bond Investment Strategy 3.1 Stock Market - In the short term, the external uncertainty has increased significantly, and the index volatility may intensify. The broad - based index will be in a volatile state, and investors can focus on sectors such as innovative drugs, self - controllability, AI +, and solid - state batteries, as well as industries with improved prosperity [3]. 3.2 Convertible Bonds - The overall view is neutral and cautious, preferring structural individual bond opportunities. Specific areas to focus on include TMT, robotics, low - altitude areas, innovative drugs, debt - resolution directions, price - rising cyclical sectors, bottom - position bonds, and newly - listed bonds [4]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - Last week, 2 new convertible bonds were issued, 1 convertible bond was approved by the shareholders' meeting, and 1 convertible bond issuance was accepted by the exchange [5][68].

Core Insights - Strong demand from technology companies is driving the recovery of Beijing's office market [1] - The overall new leasing transaction area in Beijing increased by 33% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The net absorption of office space in Beijing reached 255,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 110% [2] Supply and Demand - Two new projects delivered in Q2 added 148,000 square meters of office space, contributing to a total of 180,000 square meters of new supply in the first half, achieving 83% of the annual target [1] - The vacancy rate for Beijing's office market decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 20.2% in the first half of the year [3] - The vacancy rate in key technology districts like Zhongguancun dropped to single digits at 8.9% [3] Rental Trends - Average rental prices in Beijing's office market decreased by 5.5% to 241.7 yuan per square meter per month [3] - The competition among landlords remains intense due to the overall supply still being ample compared to the recovery speed of demand [3] - The government’s recent initiatives to optimize the business environment are expected to positively impact demand from headquarters, R&D, and foreign investments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the GF Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed ETF (code: 159262) provides an efficient tool for investors to access core technology assets in the Hong Kong stock market, with a fundraising scale of 1.337 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past 1.5 years for Hong Kong-related ETFs [1]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The ETF closely tracks the Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index, which focuses on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, specifically excluding non-technology industries such as pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles [1]. - The index consists of 30 pure technology companies that are tradable via the Hong Kong Stock Connect, ensuring a focused investment logic that directs funds towards cutting-edge sectors like AI computing power, large models, and domestic chip production [1]. Group 2: Index Composition and Performance - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 76% of its weight, with leading AI companies like Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent collectively representing over 30% [1]. - As of July 4, 2025, the total market capitalization of the index's constituent stocks exceeds 10.5 trillion HKD, approximately 13% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks [1]. - The Hangseng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Themed Index has recorded a 27.62% increase over the past three years, significantly outperforming the Hangseng Index (+9.40%) and the Hangseng Technology Index (+7.02%) [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Insights - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached 731.193 billion HKD, a historical high for the period, indicating strong confidence and demand for quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - Analysts suggest focusing on technology giants benefiting from AI industry catalysts, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumer directions driven by technological advancements, and high-dividend assets in sectors like banking and utilities [5].