首席 点 评 ：中美双方达成基本共识 当地时间 10 月 25 日至 26 日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易 代表格里尔在马来西亚吉隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识为引领，围绕美对华海 事物流和造船业 301 措施、延长对等关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作、农产品贸易、出口管制等双方共同关心的 重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步 确定具体细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。美国 9 月 CPI 同比增长 3% ，为 2025 年 1 月以来新高，预估为 3.1% ，前 值为 2.9% ；美国 9 月 CPI 环比增长 0.3% ，预估为 0.4% ，前值为 0.4% 。美国 9 月核心 CPI 同比增长 3% ，预估为 3.1% ，前值为 3.1% ；美国 9 月核心 CPI 环比增长 0.2% ，预估为 0.3% ，前值为 0.3% 。 重点品 种 ：铜、黄金、股指 铜： 夜盘铜价小幅收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The upcoming week will focus on the APEC leaders' informal meeting and the "Super Central Bank Week," where major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decisions [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on October 30, with internal divisions among members regarding labor market risks and inflation concerns [2] - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are also anticipated to maintain current interest rates, with the Bank of Japan cautious about early tightening and the European Central Bank ruling out further rate cuts [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index for September, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with August's data showing a persistent year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. will also release third-quarter GDP data, while China will announce the official manufacturing PMI for October, with expectations of a potential rise above the previous month's 49.8% [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Reliance Industries, India's largest private oil refiner, has decided to stop purchasing Russian oil following U.S. sanctions, which previously accounted for about one-third of India's total oil imports [5][6] - The international oil market saw a rebound after hitting a five-month low, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 5% and Brent crude oil futures increasing over 7% last week [10] - The recent sanctions against Russian oil companies have heightened concerns about supply disruptions, contributing to the oil price rebound [11] - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreasing, indicating a tightening supply situation [12]

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年10月27日 —— 短期地缘利好，警惕回落风险 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场核心矛盾是短期地缘风险利好与中长期基本面利空的博弈，且天平向利空倾斜。短期美国对俄 石油公司制裁、委内瑞拉风险传闻等地缘消息，推动布油短线涨 2-3 美元，但风险仅处消息扰动阶段，未升 级为冲突或断供，参考 2025 年 1 月制裁案例，涨幅或已到位，若局势不升级，下周恐回落。中长期看，俄 罗斯可调整供油流向应对制裁，OPEC也准备好增产，供应充足，且需求端乏力，相较 7-9 月基本面利空增 强，即便短期震荡，波动重心也将下移，地缘利好难改中长期趋势。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原 ...

Core Points - The total cash dividends from 320 companies in the Shanghai market have exceeded 278 billion yuan as of October 24, with over 90 companies set to distribute an additional 280 billion yuan in cash dividends [1][2] - A record high of 414 companies have announced profit distribution plans, totaling over 560 billion yuan in cash dividends [1] - Major companies such as China Mobile and China Telecom have completed their cash distributions, amounting to 54.1 billion yuan and 16.6 billion yuan respectively, while the "Big Three" oil companies have distributed approximately 82.5 billion yuan in total [1] Company-Specific Summaries - China Petroleum has announced a cash dividend of 2.2 yuan per share, totaling 40.265 billion yuan, with 35.623 billion yuan allocated to A-share dividends [1] - Jagex has declared a cash dividend of 6.6 yuan per share, amounting to 474 million yuan, which represents 73.46% of its net profit for the period [2] - Guotai Junan plans to distribute 0.15 yuan per share, totaling 2.627 billion yuan, making it one of the leading brokerages in terms of dividend distribution [2] - Guodian Power intends to distribute 1 yuan per share, totaling 1.784 billion yuan, which is 48.38% of its net profit for the period [2] Upcoming Distributions - From October 27 to October 31, 20 companies will distribute a total of 9 billion yuan in cash dividends, including 京沪高铁 (19 billion yuan), 国泰海通 (26 billion yuan), and 国电电力 (18 billion yuan) [1][2] - There are still 74 companies that have not yet announced their dividend distribution plans, with a total amount exceeding 275 billion yuan expected to be distributed in the future [2]

·国有资产最新"家底"公布截至2024年末全国国有企业（不含金融企业）资产总额401.7万亿元 ·前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元同比增长5.2% ·强化全链条监管食品安全法实施取得积极成效 【重点关注】 ·党的二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划建议全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标 ·二十届四中全会提出建设强大国内市场加快构建新发展格局 ·何立峰：要扎实做好四季度金融工作，紧盯风险、严防"爆雷" ·王文涛：让中国大市场成为全球创新的应用场 ·央行：前三季度人民币贷款增加14.75万亿元 ·中美经贸磋商25日在马来西亚开始举行 ·欧洲主要评级机构下调美国主权信用评级因美国公共财政状况持续恶化及政府治理标准下降 【国内要闻】 ·中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行。全会由中央 政治局主持。中央委员会总书记习近平作了重要讲话。全会听取和讨论了习近平受中央政治局委托所作 的工作报告，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。习近平 就《建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标：高 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed comprehensive sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, freezing their assets in the U.S. and prohibiting American transactions with them, significantly impacting Russia's economy as these companies account for nearly 50% of Russia's total oil exports [1][3] - The sanctions are aimed at pressuring Russia to make concessions regarding the Ukraine conflict, with U.S. Treasury estimating that these companies contributed over $30 billion in tax revenue to the Russian government in 2024 [3][4] - The timing of the sanctions is notable, as they were announced shortly after a phone call between Trump and Putin, where they agreed to hold a peace summit, indicating a strategic approach to economic pressure [3][8] Group 2 - Russia's oil export structure has fundamentally changed since the Ukraine conflict began, with the EU's share of Russian oil exports dropping from 60% in 2022 to less than 5% in 2024, while China and India have become the primary importers [7] - The long-term impact of sanctions on Russia's oil industry is becoming evident, with increased production costs and delays in new oil field developments due to Western technology restrictions [7][15] - Despite the sanctions, Russia's economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth rate of 2.1% in 2024 and inflation controlled below 4.5% [4] Group 3 - The sanctions have led to a significant reduction in Russia's oil export revenue, which fell by 18% year-on-year in Q3 2025, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 3.2% of GDP [15][16] - The U.S. shale oil producers have benefited from short-term profits due to rising oil prices, but the sanctions have disrupted global energy market stability, leading to increased costs for U.S. manufacturing [15][16] - The dominance of the U.S. dollar in energy trade is being challenged, with the proportion of Russian oil trade settled in dollars dropping from 78% in 2022 to 41% in Q1 2025 [16] Group 4 - The ongoing sanctions and the energy crisis in Europe have led to reduced production in European refineries, with companies like BASF and Total Energy scaling back operations due to cost pressures [13] - The sanctions have broader implications for global energy markets, with the International Energy Agency predicting a daily oil shortfall of 3 million barrels by 2026, potentially pushing prices above $80 per barrel [13] - Emerging market countries like China and India are facing increased import costs due to rising oil prices, with China paying an additional $12 billion and India $8 billion in 2025 [13]

按照成品油调价时间表 10月27日（星期一）24时 国内成品油零售限价 根据相关机构测算 本轮油价大概率下调 机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调幅度远超50元/吨的红线要求，本轮成 品油零售限价大概率将下调，这也意味着将迎来今年以来第9次下调。 国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，国际原油价格运行重心先跌后涨，导致国内参考的原油变化率在负值范围内有所收 窄。 卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至10月23日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第9个工作日，按照最新价格计算，参 考的原油变化率为-6.93%，预计汽、柴油价格均应下调300元/吨，折合成升价后，对应的92号汽油、0号柴油价格将分 别下调0.24元/升、0.26元/升。 2025年油价怎么调？ 本年度油价调整日历 将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟表示，本轮国内成品油零售限价下调基本已是"板上钉钉"。此次成品油零售限价措施落地 后，预计将是今年以来国内成品油零售限价的第9次下调，届时消费者用油成本有望进一步降低。 2025年以来，国内成品油零售限价目前已经历二十轮调整窗口，分别为"六涨八跌六搁浅"。上轮调价后，国 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 迎接"超级央行周" 证券研究报告 海外跟踪周报 20251026 海外市场复盘（10.20-10.24） 海外权益，欧美股市普遍上涨。周一，随着贸易形势缓和，美股上涨；周 三，由于贸易紧张局势再度升温，美股三大指数收跌，大型科技股多数收 跌；周四周五，受科技股走强带动，以及 9 月 CPI 通胀数据低于预期令市 场对降息路径的信心增强，提振美股三大指数上涨、齐创新高。 外汇方面，本周美元小幅收涨。周一周二，市场对贸易协议乐观的情绪提 振美元上涨；周三回调，周四五继续上行。 利率方面，10Y 美债收益率本周收平。本周美债收益率窄幅波动。周五， 美国 CPI 低于预期，美债收益率一度大幅下行，此后受超预期的 Markit PMI 数据推动，收益率回升。 商品方面，黄金大跌、原油大涨。本周一，黄金延续上周的强势涨势，而 周二，黄金跌超过 5%，投资者因担心近期历史性的上涨令其估值过高而锁 定利润。周四黄金小幅回升，但周五再次下跌。本周原油大涨，主因美国 宣布制裁俄罗斯两大石油企业、以及特朗普重申印度将停止购买俄罗斯石 油。 海外央行动态 本周是 FOMC 会议之前的"噤声期"，美联储官员 ...

Group 1 - The EU has initiated new sanctions against Russia while simultaneously targeting four Chinese oil companies, indicating a dual approach to geopolitical tensions [3][5] - The EU is also exploring countermeasures against China regarding rare earth elements, highlighting a growing concern over dependency on Chinese exports [3][5] - European countries are facing a dilemma due to their reliance on Chinese rare earths, which has been exacerbated by their previous focus on high-value segments rather than mining and processing [7][9] Group 2 - The EU's recent actions reflect a clear hostility towards China, with calls for urgent diplomatic solutions to address the situation [5][9] - There is a recognition among European nations that their dependency on Chinese rare earths is a result of short-sighted policies, and they are now in a position where they must negotiate with China [5][7] - The current panic among Western companies to increase rare earth inventories is insufficient to mitigate the potential impact of tighter Chinese export controls [7][9]

数据来源：国家发展改革委网站 按照成品油调价时间表，10月27日（下周一）24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。 机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调幅度远超50元/吨的红 线要求，本轮成品油零售限价大概率将下调，这也意味着将迎来今年以来第九次下调。 成品油零售限价或下调 国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，国际原油价格运行重心先跌后涨，导致国内参考的原油变化率在负值范 围内有所收窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师郑明亚表示，本轮国内成品油计价周期开启后，宏观市场氛围偏谨慎，国际原油 期货价格持续在低位波动。近期，欧洲地缘局势复杂化，市场一度担忧原油进口大国将停止或减少从受 欧洲制裁的国家采购原油。由于美国原油库存和汽油库存同步下降，为原油期货价格带来了一定反弹动 力，油价因此出现回升，但这难以改变原油变化率在负值区间运行的态势，进而使得本轮成品油零售限 价下调的预期进一步增强。 卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至10月23日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第9个工作日，按照最 新价格计算，参考的原油变化率为-6.93%，预计汽、柴油价格均应下调300元/吨，折合成升价后，对应 的 ...