Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed. With high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market, the overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but recently, farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a relatively tight effective supply. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises have rigid demand, while traders are willing to store high - quality grain [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - **Market News and Key Data**: - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2754 yuan/ton, a change of - 9 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2329 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.52%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal was 3060 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 3030 yuan/ton, a change of + 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2540 yuan/ton, a change of + 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report: The estimated soybean production in the US for the 2025/26 season is 4.253 billion bushels, the sown area is 81.1 million acres, the harvested area is 80.3 million acres, the yield per acre is 53 bushels, the export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 290 million bushels. Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.33 million tons and soybean meal exports will be 1.83 million tons [2] - **Market Analysis**: The current supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation. The price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] Corn - **Market News and Key Data**: - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2241 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton (+ 0.22%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2532 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.40%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] - US Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report: The estimated corn production in the US for the 2025/26 season is 16.752 billion bushels, the sown area is 98.7 million acres, the harvested area is 90 million acres, the yield per acre is 186 bushels, the export volume is 3.2 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 2.029 billion bushels [4] - **Market Analysis**: In China, on the supply side, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to tight supply. As the price rises and holidays approach, the grain - selling progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises have rigid demand, while traders are willing to store high - quality grain [5][6]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

2025年12月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251211 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：已提前交易冬至预期，仓单增量 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 12 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,542 | 涨跌幅 -1.23% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,662 | 涨跌幅 1.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term prices of soybean - related futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern, with far - month contracts being weaker. The short - term price of palm oil futures has turned to weakly oscillating. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [5] - **Core Logic**: Last night, the price of US soybean futures rebounded from a low level due to improved export demand. Argentina's reduction of export tariffs on soybeans and their products may enhance its export competitiveness and squeeze the market share of US soybeans. Despite the USDA report keeping the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels, there are still concerns about South American supply pressure. The domestic market shows conflicting signals. Spot prices have stopped falling, but the expectation of accelerated customs clearance for imported soybeans has intensified the expectation of loose long - term supply. Near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline, while the cost support for far - month contracts is significantly weakened. [5][6] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: weakly oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly oscillating; Reference view: weakly oscillating. [7] - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of November soared 13% month - on - month to 2.84 million tons, far exceeding market expectations and reaching a six - and - a - half - year high, mainly due to a cliff - like 28.1% decline in exports to 1.213 million tons. Domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated to 719,000 tons due to increased imports and weakening demand. Overall demand is lower than expected, with the growth rate of catering consumption slowing down and the procurement volume of small - package oils down 15% year - on - year. The narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread to 500 yuan/ton has suppressed the blending demand for palm oil. The domestic palm oil market is currently in a stage dominated by "weak reality", and the process of destocking high inventory determines the price movement center. The sentiment in the oil market has weakened. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy trends and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [7]

新华财经纽约12月10日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价10日涨跌不一。 天气预报显示，本周末阿根廷降雨概率有所提高，12月21日至25日期间还将再次迎来降雨。巴西中部和 北部地区每日将出现典型的热带阵雨。马托格罗索州部分地区长期存在的降水不足问题将在10天内得到 缓解。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国农业部当日宣布，美国出口商向中国出口了136,000吨大豆，向未知目的地出口了331,000吨大豆， 向波兰出口了120,000吨豆粕。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.44美元，比前一交易日 下跌3.75美分，跌幅为0.84%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.3美元，比前一交易日下跌5美分，跌 幅为0.94%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳10.91美元，比前一交易日上涨4美分，涨幅为0.37%。 美国能源信息署10日发布的数据显示，截至12月5日当周，美国乙醇产量3.25亿加仑，与前一周持平， 同比增长3%；乙醇库存维持在9.45亿加仑不变，与2024年同期基本持平；上周美国汽油日消耗量为846 万桶，同比下降 4%，连续第二周同比大幅下 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月10日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货涨0.44%报1092.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.89%报444.00美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.98%报 529.25美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of peanuts is expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term, with supply increasing and downstream demand remaining weak. The peanut futures will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the PK01 contract still has room to decline [3][7] - The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. Oil mills have good theoretical profit margins [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 8030, up 18 (0.22%), with a trading volume of 70,538 (up 4.79%) and an open interest of 29,799 (up 6.23%); PK510 closed at 8220, down 2 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 101 (up 53.03%) and an open interest of 805 (up 5.23%); PK601 closed at 8088, up 18 (0.22%), with a trading volume of 17,941 (down 21.37%) and an open interest of 52,878 (down 7.99%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7800, 8200, and 8200 respectively, with no change; the price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3250, and Rizhao soybean meal was 3030 (up 20); the price of peanut oil was 14380, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8440, both with no change [1] - **Import Price**: The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, and Senegalese peanuts was 7600, both with no change [1] - **Spread**: PK01 - PK04 spread was 58 (no change), PK04 - PK10 spread was 20, and PK10 - PK01 spread was 132 (down 20) [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.8 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.75 yuan/jin; the price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.75 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 3.4 yuan/jin. The price of imported peanuts was also stable [3] - Some peanut oil mills raised their purchase prices, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 6900 - 7600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills was 7860 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [3][5] - The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3030 yuan/ton. The unit protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term [5] Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Peanuts in contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a high level. Short - sell PK01 on rallies [8] - **Calendar Spread**: Reverse - spread the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [9] - **Options**: Sell PK603 - P - 8200 on rallies [10] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][17][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bearish pressure on the meal market has been mostly reflected, and the market is experiencing a phased rebound. The international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively stable, with limited price changes expected. The US soybean market has some support but still faces export - related pressure. The Brazilian soybean market may face price pressure in the medium - term. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, but the supply may tighten in the future. The monthly spread of soybean meal shows a strong operation trend, and that of rapeseed meal follows suit [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market fluctuated after the monthly supply - demand report, with limited changes. The domestic soybean meal market stabilized after a sharp decline, and the rapeseed meal market rebounded under the influence of soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean has obvious downward pressure due to large export pressure. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress has accelerated but is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest in Brazil, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil have strong export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and its recent crushing and export have increased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate remains high, with sufficient supply and increasing提货 volume. The inventory is at a high level. The market demand is increasing, but there is still uncertainty about future supply. As of December 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, the operating rate was 56.55%, the soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons (down 184,400 tons or 2.51% from last week, up 1.6849 million tons or 30.80% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons (down 41,300 tons or 3.43% from last week, up 481,400 tons or 70.74% year - on - year). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. As of December 5, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 0 tons (unchanged from last week), and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons (up 0.01 million tons from last week) [5] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to face some pressure due to slow exports, but the decline depth is limited as the price has already reflected most of the bearish factors, and it will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The short - term weather in Brazil has improved, putting pressure on the market. The domestic soybean meal supply may tighten in the future, and there is still price pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The rapeseed meal supply pressure remains obvious. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be strongly supported [6] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Participate in laying out a small number of long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The table shows the soybean pressing profit data from Brazil with different shipping dates on December 10, 2025, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and changes in pressing profit [8]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [3][4][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The market lacks obvious drivers, and each commodity sector is experiencing overall fluctuations. The prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions [1][2][3][6][7] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,740 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,843 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1103, a change of +6 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,999 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1259, a change of +0 from the previous day [1] - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and a month-on-month increase of 7.22%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with large short-term supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak. In the long term, the US cotton is in a low-valued range, with limited further downward space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to continue to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the cotton production forecast has risen again. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging orders. On the demand side, the downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity, the domestic cotton consumption has increased, and the supply and demand in the new season are not expected to be too loose. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5343 yuan/ton, a change of +6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 67, a change of -6 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5345 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 2, a change of -6 from the previous day [3] - Brazil exported 817,500 tons of sugar in the first week of December, with an average daily export volume of 163,500 tons, a 21% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 134,900 tons in December of the previous year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar production surplus continues to suppress the market, but the current negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. In the short term, the downward space of the international sugar price is limited, but there is no sign of a reversal. In the long term, it depends on the weather and the policies of major producing countries next year [3] - Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started to crush sugar, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota is still high, and the import volume from July to October has increased, increasing the supply pressure [3] Strategy - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the crushing season. The short-term downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the capital side to the market, and there is a possibility of a new low [4][5] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5386 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 114, a change of +6 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5005 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 381, a change of +6 from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some showing a weakening trend. The trading in the market was light, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there have been continuous news about overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased significantly in October, indicating some improvement in demand. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand has been insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is not high, and the overall output of finished paper has not increased significantly. The raw material procurement mentality of downstream paper mills is cautious, and the procurement willingness is generally low, resulting in the domestic port inventory still being at a historical high [7] Strategy - Due to the previous negative factors being gradually digested by the market, affected by short-covering and overseas supply disturbances, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply and demand situation, the upward space of the pulp price may be limited. Attention should also be paid to the disturbance of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts to the market [8]