Market Overview - On the first trading day of October, A-shares experienced a "red opening," with all three major indices closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.73%. The market turnover was approximately 2.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 474.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in precious metals, controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, energy metals, and wind power equipment. Conversely, sectors such as film and theater, tourism and hotels, and liquor experienced adjustments [4]. - Notable stocks in the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors included Xinyi Silver Tin (000426), Yunnan Copper (000878), Shandong Gold (600547), and Sichuan Gold (001337), all of which hit the daily limit. Leading stock Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) also reached its daily limit and achieved a historical high [4]. Luoyang Molybdenum Company Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock closed at 17.27 yuan per share, marking a historical high with a total market capitalization of 369.48 billion yuan [5]. - The company reported a copper production of 353,600 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.68%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, up 60.07% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising copper and cobalt prices and increased copper metal output [8]. - Luoyang Molybdenum recently received the Copper Mark certification for its TFM copper-cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, becoming the first mine in Africa to fully meet all Copper Mark standards. This certification is expected to enhance product recognition and achieve premium pricing [8]. Controllable Nuclear Fusion Sector - The controllable nuclear fusion sector saw significant gains, with leading stock Western Superconducting Technologies (301137) hitting the daily limit. The commercialization path for nuclear fusion technology is becoming clearer, with global investments expected to exceed $7.1 billion in 2024 [10][14]. Wind Power Sector - The wind power sector showed strength, with leading stocks such as Goldwind Technology (002202) reaching their daily limit. The International Energy Agency's report predicts that global renewable energy capacity will double in the next five years, with wind energy expected to see substantial growth, particularly in China, Europe, and India [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise of gold prices and the implications for the global monetary order, particularly focusing on the increasing role of the Chinese yuan as a potential alternative to the US dollar in international trade and finance [3][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On October 7, 2025, gold prices reached a historic high of $4000 per ounce, marking an increase of over 50% within the year [3]. - This surge is attributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts and a notable decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 10% this year [3]. - The rise in gold prices reflects a broader market sentiment seeking alternatives to the dollar amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. Group 2: Yuan's Internationalization - As of Q1 2025, the yuan accounted for 2.12% of global foreign reserves, ranking sixth, significantly lower than the dollar (57.74%) and euro (20.06) [4]. - Despite China's growing economic influence, the yuan's international status does not yet match this influence, indicating a need for a multi-faceted approach to enhance its global role [4][5]. - A notable shift is occurring, with an increasing number of enterprises opting for yuan settlements in cross-border transactions, surpassing dollar settlements for the first time in Q2 2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - A survey conducted by Renmin University revealed that 68% of enterprises used yuan for cross-border trade settlements in Q4 2024, with 71% citing asset security as the primary reason [6][9]. - The yuan's appeal is growing due to its perceived stability and usability, as companies seek to avoid reliance on the dollar [9][10]. - The influx of foreign capital into Chinese assets, particularly after the Fed's interest rate cuts, indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards the yuan [9][10]. Group 4: Infrastructure Development - The establishment of the Digital Yuan International Operation Center in Shanghai aims to enhance the yuan's usability in cross-border transactions, supporting a more integrated financial infrastructure [12][14]. - The center's launch is part of a broader strategy to create a transaction-driven infrastructure for the yuan, moving from policy-driven to market-driven adoption [12][15]. - The digital yuan's infrastructure is designed to facilitate seamless transactions, ensuring compatibility with existing systems while enhancing liquidity and efficiency [14][15]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The article emphasizes the need for a dual-driven model of "yuan + digital currency" to enhance the yuan's role in global trade and finance [18]. - The transition of the yuan from a "optional" asset to a "must-have" currency in global markets requires comprehensive financial reforms and international collaboration [18][19]. - The evolving global monetary landscape suggests that the yuan is positioned to play a significant role in reshaping future financial systems, driven by market choices rather than mere policy directives [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight gold and blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds and growth stocks, and underweight credit bonds, crude oil, and currency [5][60] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From mid - January to March 2025, due to Trump's aggressive reforms, the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds chased overseas assets. In early April, Trump's high - tariff measures triggered a global financial tsunami. After that, the Fed's rate - cut process benefits global stocks and precious metals, while the bond yields of various countries are suppressed. The commodity market remains stable overall but shows significant differentiation. Looking forward, the macro - environment is still relatively favorable for precious metals and stocks, slightly favorable for industrial commodities, but unfavorable for bonds. It is recommended to increase bond allocation while being bullish on stocks [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 1 - 9 Months Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed overseas. In early April, Trump's tariff measures caused a global financial shock. After that, the international trade situation eased, and the Fed's rate - cut benefited global stocks and precious metals. The commodity market was stable with differentiation [7] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's Domestic Demand Continues to Weaken - In August 2025, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade disputes. The full - year economic growth target of about 5% is expected to be achieved. In terms of investment, from January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, especially in real estate. Consumption growth also declined. Industrial output growth slowed, and there was a large deflationary pressure. The real - estate market showed supply - demand deterioration and price decline, but the overall situation was slightly better than in Q3 2024. Inflation showed a decline in overall CPI and a narrowing of PPI decline. Exports were affected by the US and other factors, but still showed resilience. Fiscal expenditure showed a marginal weakening, and financial data showed that new social financing was mainly supported by fiscal means. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and new policy - based financial tools were launched [8][10][15] 3.2.2 US Economic Recovery but Weak Employment - In the first half of 2025, the US economy fluctuated due to Trump's reforms. In the second half, the growth momentum recovered. Employment data showed a shortage of new non - farm jobs, a low growth rate of salaries, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but no recession risk. Inflation showed a stable recovery, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [27][29][33] 3.2.3 The Fed Restarts the Rate - cut Process - On September 16 - 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP. The decision was due to the weakening of US economic growth momentum, the slowdown of employment growth, and the balance between employment and inflation risks. The Fed's economic outlook is more optimistic, and it is expected to cut interest rates two more times in 2025 and less frequently in 2026 and 2027. The Fed's rate - cut is a risk - management measure, and the second - stage rate - cut process will be step - by - step [37][40][45] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury yields showed a downward - rebound - downward - rebound trend. It is expected to run weakly in the second half of 2025. US Treasury yields were high - fluctuating, and it is predicted to continue high - running. The US dollar index is expected to be weak first and then strong. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Global stock indices have risen, and the A - share market is expected to be strong, but the contradiction between high risk - appetite and weak corporate profits is increasing. The commodity market is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock [47][49][54] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to September 2025, stocks rose, bonds fell, and commodities were under pressure. The international trade situation and domestic policies affected asset performance. It is recommended to underweight currency, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds, underweight credit bonds, overweight blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate growth stocks, underweight crude oil, and overweight gold [58][60]

重要的消息有哪些 美国参议院10月8日当天对众议院通过的共和党版本短期拨款法案及民主党替代方案进行表决，均未通过。美联邦政府继续"停摆"。 9月30日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告显示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年10月9日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 国家外汇管理局10月7日公布的数据显示，截至9月末中国外汇储备规模为33387亿美元，较8月末环比上升165亿美元。另据央行统计数据，9月末央行黄金 储备达7406万盎司，环比8月增加4万盎司，为连续11个月增持黄金。 当地时间4日下午，日本执政党自民党举行总裁选举投计票。在第二轮投票中，前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗获得多数选票，当选自民党新任总裁， 大概率将成为新一任日本首相。 美联储会议纪要显示，多数官员表示今年进一步放松政策可能是合适的，少数官员本可能支持9月份不降息。 中国科学院金属研究所日前消息，该所科研团队在固态锂电池领域取得突破，为解决固态电池界面阻抗大、离子传输效率低的关键难题提供了新路径。该 研究成果已于近日发表在国际学术期刊《先 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements of China's financial sector during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the deepening of financial reforms and the enhancement of international competitiveness and influence [2][5]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, focusing on internal and external balance while implementing moderately loose monetary policies to foster economic recovery and stabilize financial markets [3][4]. - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasizes the importance of counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual function of monetary policy tools to support stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [3][4]. Financial Market Development - As of June 2023, China's banking sector total assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, with stock and bond markets also holding significant positions [5]. - The international status of the Renminbi (RMB) has been steadily rising, with RMB becoming the largest settlement currency for China's external payments and the third-largest trade financing currency globally [6]. Cross-Border Financial Integration - The establishment of a diversified cross-border payment system has significantly improved the convenience of cross-border trade and investment, with ongoing reforms in cross-border RMB and foreign exchange management [7][8]. - The PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries and regions, enhancing the RMB's international usage and promoting offshore RMB market development [6][7]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The PBOC is focused on balancing economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial risk prevention, with significant progress made in reducing risks associated with local government financing platforms [9][10]. - Measures have been taken to support the real estate sector and mitigate risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with a notable reduction in the number of high-risk small banks [10][11]. Regulatory Enhancements - The regulatory framework for the foreign exchange market has been strengthened, with a dual management approach that combines macro-prudential and micro-regulatory measures to enhance resilience against external shocks [11][12].

国债发行计划变化、制造业 PMI 成色和海外资产涨跌。 投资要点： 通 用 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 总量研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.08 | | 0755-23976753 tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 杜润琛(研究助理) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880123090079 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 总 量 研 究 国庆前后，需着重关注的三件事 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.9.19-9.30） 2025.10.07 地方债利差小幅走阔，新增地方债发行进度 83.6% 2025.10.05 收益率整体上行，期限利差走阔 2025.10.05 T、TL 机构行为因子分化，T 合约多头力量增强 20250929 2025.09.29 跨季前后的阶段性平台期 2025.09.28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% in September 2025 marks the first rate cut since December 2024, with expectations of two more cuts within the year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction, reshaping global capital flows and diminishing the influence of the dollar tide [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Capital Flow - The high-interest era in the U.S. attracted global capital, creating a financial leverage model that maintained U.S. financial resilience but also led to significant market bubbles. The onset of the rate cut cycle is causing a decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting institutions to liquidate assets to avoid future yield shrinkage, thus redistributing global liquidity [4][6]. - The current complex global geopolitical environment is driving capital towards markets with higher safety margins, with China emerging as a key alternative due to its stable development environment and undervalued asset prices. The "Belt and Road" initiative is guiding foreign investment into the real economy, making it harder for short-term dollar flows to withdraw easily [6][19]. Group 2: Impact on Currency and Asset Pricing - The increase in dollar supply is weakening its exchange rate, with the RMB/USD exchange rate surpassing 7.1 in September 2025 and maintaining at 7.1195 on October 3. This appreciation reduces import costs and enhances the international pricing of domestic assets, with gold prices rising over 40% this year, reflecting a reassessment of dollar credit and increased attractiveness of RMB assets [9][12]. - Foreign capital is accelerating its investment in the Chinese market, despite short-term fluctuations in the bond market. The improvement in the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to attract more foreign investment in Chinese bonds [10][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are showing upward trends, with a favorable financing environment for quality enterprises, particularly in coastal economic zones and "Belt and Road" regions, creating new wealth opportunities. However, the current monetary circulation shows a high multiplier effect, leading to cash flow challenges for businesses and individuals [12][14]. - Short-term speculative capital may disrupt local markets and inflate asset bubbles, while the real economy still faces financing disparities, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises. The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate cut pace could complicate capital flows further [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Opportunities and Recommendations - China's monetary policy needs to balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks." The focus should remain on targeted monetary easing without large-scale loosening, with 10-year government bond yields expected to fluctuate between 1.70% and 1.90% [15][17]. - Key indicators to monitor include the Fed's rate cut schedule and domestic monetary policy actions, which will directly influence market expectations. Companies should optimize debt structures and reduce reliance on short-term borrowing, while individuals should manage leverage and prioritize emergency fund reserves [17][20].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with spot gold hitting $3920.77 per ounce and COMEX gold reaching $3945.2 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 49% [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill has led to a government shutdown, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - The decline in the U.S. dollar index and treasury yields has created a favorable environment for precious metals, with the government shutdown acting as a new driver for gold's rebound [3]. Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points has further supported the logic for rising gold prices [4]. - Market expectations indicate a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 84.9% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [4]. Investment Trends - Gold ETF net inflows surged to $13.6 billion over the past four weeks, with total inflows exceeding $60 billion since 2025, marking a record high [4]. - Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their price targets for gold, predicting potential increases to $4000 or even $5000 per ounce [4]. Consumer Behavior - The surge in gold prices has led to increased foot traffic in jewelry stores in Shenzhen, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook seeing prices for gold jewelry surpassing 1100 yuan per gram [5]. - Wedding-related gold products have become popular, with many brands raising prices for fixed-price items, reflecting consumer demand for convenience and budget adherence [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government spends $1.2 trillion annually on debt interest, exceeding the GDP of over half the world's countries, averaging $3,500 per American to support Wall Street [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the first reduction in nine months, significantly altering the global capital landscape [2][3] - The high U.S. interest rates previously attracted global capital, but the recent rate cut has led to a rapid outflow of funds seeking new investment opportunities [3] Group 2 - China has emerged as a favored destination for capital, with hedge funds rapidly increasing their purchases of Chinese stocks, as evidenced by a net inflow of $1.2 billion in June and $2.7 billion in July [5] - China's stable environment, lower asset prices compared to the U.S. and Europe, and the anchoring effect of the Belt and Road Initiative are key factors attracting foreign investment [5] - The capital influx has opened three significant doors for China: increased monetary policy autonomy, appreciation of RMB assets, and revitalization of market activity, with the A-share market surpassing 3,800 points [7] Group 3 - Despite the influx of capital, there are concerns about the domestic money supply, with M2 totaling 326 trillion yuan but only 15.74 trillion yuan available for spending, indicating a potential liquidity issue [7] - The risk of hot money inflating asset prices and creating bubbles is highlighted, especially if the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies fluctuate [7] - Investors are advised to focus on tangible investments in manufacturing and Belt and Road projects, while being cautious of short-term high-yield financial products that may pose risks [9]

Core Insights - The total amount of cross-border payments in RMB has reached a historical high, with the dollar's share dropping to 62%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a potential shift in currency preference among businesses [1] - Discussions around RMB's internationalization have intensified, with some questioning whether it could replace the dollar, despite RMB's international settlement share only being 3.5%, significantly lower than the euro and far from the dollar's dominance [3] - Regulatory changes, such as the recent easing of restrictions for foreign institutions to trade A-shares, have sparked debates about the attractiveness of RMB assets [3] - There is a notable increase in cross-border payments in RMB, particularly in Southeast Asia, where orders using RMB have doubled, reflecting a growing acceptance of the currency [3] - Foreign capital inflow into China's bond market has increased by 12% year-on-year, but 70% of this capital is directed towards short-term government bonds, indicating cautious long-term investment sentiment [3] - The lack of a "super anchor" asset and trust in the RMB are seen as major obstacles to its internationalization, with comparisons drawn to the dollar's established status in global trade [5] - Recent developments, such as Argentina's central bank renewing a currency swap agreement with China, highlight the mixed signals in RMB's international acceptance, as other countries like Chile reaffirm their preference for the dollar [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizes that RMB internationalization is a gradual process, requiring time and effort to build trust and establish a stable capital market [5] - Market volatility in A-shares has raised concerns about foreign capital's willingness to invest, with fears of policy changes and information asymmetry contributing to a cautious approach [5] - The ongoing dialogue about RMB's internationalization and capital market opening reflects a complex interplay of market psychology and regulatory dynamics, with no clear resolution in sight [7] - The impact of RMB internationalization on ordinary people's financial interests is highlighted, as it affects their ability to access reliable assets and manage currency risks during international travel [9] - The gradual evolution of the RMB's role in global finance is likened to a marathon, with significant challenges remaining before it can rival the dollar's dominance [9]