Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy, or IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. The silver price will continue to be strong. Most metal prices will show different trends of shock, and some agricultural product prices will also fluctuate. [4][6][7] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%, etc. The total turnover of the two markets was 1286.4 billion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. [2] - The financing amount decreased by 3.116 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate rose 3.30bp to 1.411%. The 3 - year enterprise bond AA - level interest rate decreased 1.46bp to 2.9709%. The 10 - year treasury bond rate decreased 0.89bp to 1.6543%. The US 10 - year interest rate rose 11bp to 4.51%. [3] - It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended. [4] Treasury Bond - On Monday, the TL main contract rose 0.35%, the T main contract rose 0.09%, etc. In May, the CPI decreased slightly, and the core CPI increased year - on - year. China's total import and export value in the first five months of 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. [5] - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. [6] Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.18%, Shanghai silver rose 2.07%. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, COMEX silver rose 0.45%. The US economic data is weakening, and the Fed's further interest rate cut is necessary, which will drive the silver price to be strong. [7] - It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, and the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 1.01%, Shanghai copper closed at 79330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons, and the domestic social inventory was basically flat. China's copper imports in May decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level. [10] Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 1.28%, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20060 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise limitedly. [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 2.22%. The zinc ore is in surplus, and the zinc price may decline further if there is no production control. [12] Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.07%. The downstream consumption of lead is weakening, and the lead price is expected to be weak. [13] Nickel - Shanghai nickel fell 0.27%, LME nickel fell 0.81%. The nickel ore supply is tight, and the nickel price is expected to be short - term bullish but long - term bearish. [14] Tin - Shanghai tin rose 0.05%. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate. [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose 0.43%. The lithium salt production is high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16] Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.34%. The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. [17] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fell 0.32%. The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, and the price will be under pressure. [18] Black Building Materials Steel - The rebar price rose 0.201%, and the hot - rolled coil price rose 0.097%. The market is in the off - season, and the demand is weakening. [20][21] Iron Ore - The iron ore price fell 0.64%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The ore price is expected to oscillate. [22] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price fell, and the soda ash price is expected to be weak. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change. [23][24] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon rose 0.25%, ferrosilicon rose 1.37%. Both are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [25] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price rose 2.54%. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may fall further. [29] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil all rose. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [33] Methanol - The methanol price rose. The supply is high, and the price may fall further. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [34] Urea - The urea price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [35] PVC - The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are changing, and there is a risk of valuation adjustment. [38] PTA - The PTA price fell. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price will continue to decline in inventory. [39] p - Xylene - The p - xylene price fell. The supply and demand will change, and the price will oscillate at the current valuation. [40][41] Polyethylene - The polyethylene price rose. The supply pressure will ease, and the price will oscillate. [42] Polypropylene - The polypropylene price rose. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to be bearish in June. [43] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term and wait for short - selling opportunities in the far term. [45] Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish. [46] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate. [47][48] Oils and Fats - The palm oil production and export are increasing. The oil price is expected to oscillate. [49][50][51] Sugar - The sugar price fell slightly. The international supply is increasing, and the domestic sugar price may weaken. [52][53] Cotton - The cotton price rose. The supply is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. [54]

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in the US economy for the second half of the year revolves around tariff data, with a short-term focus on the direction of inflation [2]. Tariff Status and Economic Effects - After the May 12 US-China agreement, global trade uncertainty has decreased but remains at historically high levels, with the average US import tariff rate around 16% and China's rate at 27%. The suspension periods for US tariffs on China will end on July 9 and August 12 [2]. - The sectors with the highest US import tariffs as of the end of May include clothing and metals, with slow progress in tariff negotiations with other economies [2]. - The economic effects of tariffs on inflation and growth are expected to manifest over time. A surge in US container bookings indicates a new round of "import grabbing," but this may be hindered by inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand as tariff suspensions approach [2]. - Tariffs have already begun to exert upward pressure on US inflation, although the effect is not yet significant. A potential inflationary period may occur in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - Indicators such as manufacturing PMI, capital expenditure willingness, and real estate sales suggest weaker private investment, while consumer purchasing intentions have declined despite a temporary boost in household income [2]. - Employment data, including unemployment claims, show signs of deterioration, raising concerns about rising unemployment rates [2]. Dynamic Economic Impact - The impact of tariffs on the economy may shift from "stagflation" to "slowdown," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve. In the next 1-2 quarters, the market may grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation and whether to expect a slowdown or recession [3]. - By Q4 of this year, if the rate of price increases slows while economic downturns persist, the main contradictions in economic fundamentals, asset classes, and policies may transition from "stagflation" to "slowdown," with the possibility of "recession panic" [3]. Global Trade Predictions - The United Nations has revised its predictions for global trade growth rates, with a forecast of 1.5% growth in trade volume for Q2 2025, driven primarily by industrial production data [4][5]. Sector-Specific Tariff Data - As of May 2025, the highest effective import tariff rates in the US are in the textile and clothing manufacturing sectors, reaching 52.8% and 52.6%, respectively. In contrast, sectors like oil, coal, and chemicals have significantly lower tariff rates [6]. Retail Price Trends - Since March, US retail prices have increased significantly, reflecting retailers' proactive price hikes following tariff impositions. However, prices for goods from Mexico have been declining since April, indicating expectations surrounding tariff negotiations [11][12]. - A survey by the Richmond Fed indicated that 72% of surveyed companies have taken action in response to tariffs, with a majority planning to raise prices [14][15]. Investment Implications - The impact of tariffs on US investment is expected to be more pronounced than on consumer spending, as the proportion of private investment reliant on imports is significantly higher (38%) compared to consumer spending (9%) [16].

Group 1 - The Shanghai export container settlement price index for European routes reached 1622.81 points, an increase of 29.5% compared to the previous period [1] - Mysteel reported a total iron ore shipment of 35.104 million tons, an increase of 794,000 tons month-on-month, with Australia and Brazil contributing 29.194 million tons, an increase of 506,000 tons, and Australia alone contributing 21.699 million tons, an increase of 2.493 million tons [1] - The National Reserve announced a competitive bidding transaction for the storage of 10,000 tons of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season to be 169.27 million tons, with estimates ranging from 168.25 to 171 million tons, slightly above USDA's previous estimate of 169 million tons [2] - In Argentina, soybean production for the same period is estimated at 4.904 million tons, with a range of 4.8 to 5 million tons, consistent with USDA's prior estimate [2] - As of last Thursday, farmers in Brazil's central-southern region had harvested 1.9% of the second-season corn crop, the slowest pace since 2021, compared to 10% at the same time last year [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark price for aluminum alloy futures contracts, with prices set at 18,365 yuan per ton for contracts AD2511, AD2512, AD2601, AD2602, AD2603, AD2604, and AD2605 [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla up over 4%, Intel up over 2%, and Google and Amazon both rising over 1%. Apple and Netflix fell over 1%, while Meta experienced a slight decline [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly gained, with Kingsoft Cloud rising nearly 10%, iQIYI up over 4%, and Bilibili, Xpeng Motors, and Baidu all increasing over 3%. JD.com and NetEase rose over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed slightly lower, with the German DAX down 0.54% to 24,174.32 points, the French CAC40 down 0.17% to 7,791.47 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.06% to 8,832.28 points [1] Commodity Prices - International oil prices strengthened, with the main U.S. oil contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude oil contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 2.12% to $36.91 per ounce [1] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 57.1 basis points against the dollar to 7.1828 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, the 3-year yield down 4.27 basis points to 3.980%, the 5-year yield down 4.39 basis points to 4.079%, the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474%, and the 30-year yield down 2.99 basis points to 4.939% [1] - European bond yields generally declined, with the UK 10-year yield down 1.2 basis points to 4.630%, the French 10-year yield down 0.5 basis points to 3.238%, the German 10-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 2.562%, the Italian 10-year yield down 1.3 basis points to 3.485%, and the Spanish 10-year yield down 0.7 basis points to 3.142% [1]

1. 铜注册仓单54600吨，注销仓单67800吨，减少10000吨。 2. 铝注册仓单322000吨，注销仓单40000吨，减少2000吨。 3. 镍注册仓单171828吨，注销仓单27264吨，减少1014吨。 4. 锌注册仓单74725吨，注销仓单60875吨，减少1000吨。 5. 铅注册仓单186275吨，注销仓单93700吨，增加48700吨。 6. 锡注册仓单1810吨，注销仓单630吨，增加25吨。 LME注册及注销仓单日报 金十期货6月9日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属注册及注销仓单如下： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience volatility in the second half of the year, with a potential for stabilization followed by an upward trend, contingent on macroeconomic policies and external uncertainties [1] - The uncertainties affecting the market include tariffs, geopolitical issues, technological narratives, and macroeconomic policies, which necessitate a focus on certainty in investment strategies [1] - The recommendation is to prioritize stable investments initially, with a shift towards growth opportunities once uncertainties are alleviated, emphasizing dividend sectors and high-growth areas [1] Group 2 - The "transformation bull" market in China's stock market is becoming increasingly clear, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [2] - Investor sentiment has shifted from concerns about economic cycles to a focus on declining discount rates, particularly the reduction in risk-free rates and systemic risk awareness [2] - The Chinese government's policies aimed at debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization, along with capital market reforms and emerging business opportunities, are expected to boost long-term investor confidence [2] - Recent market activity has exceeded expectations, driven by new consumption and technology trends, although further momentum is needed to sustain the rally [2] - Suggested sectors for investment include innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, new consumption, and strong industrial demand in metals and chemicals [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.04% at 3,385.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.45% [1][6] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.15 trillion RMB, with over 2,400 stocks rising [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, the non-ferrous metals and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [1][6] - Concept sectors such as zinc metals, Tianjin Free Trade Zone, and lead metals saw significant increases [1][6] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index close down 0.48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.63% [1][6] - In the U.S., all three major stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, the S&P 500 up 1.03%, and the Nasdaq up 1.20% [1][6] - European stock indices showed mixed results, while most Asia-Pacific markets experienced gains [1][6] Important News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a seminar on high dividend returns and enhancing the value of listed companies, discussing ways to improve the valuation of high dividend and high yield companies [2][7] - The exchange emphasized the continuous improvement of the capital market system, structure, and institutional mechanisms, reinforcing confidence in Chinese assets [2][7] - Future initiatives will focus on encouraging listed companies to increase dividend payouts and frequency, utilizing tools like buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and investor communication to enhance investment value [2][7] - The product supply side will see an expansion of dividend index-related products to meet diverse market investment needs, promoting positive interactions between long-term capital, patient capital, and quality equity assets [2][7]

金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。 市场普遍分析认为，随着关税政策的调整，全球贸易格局面临重塑，金属市场的供应链稳定性受到冲击。投资者为了规避可能的风险，将资金转移至相对 稳定且具有避险属性的贵金属市场，白银作为其中的重要一员，自然成了资金流入的方向。这种基于宏观政策变动引发的市场行为，直接推动了白银价格 近日，贵金属市场上演了一场令人瞩目的行情。 现货白银价格大幅飙升，一度涨幅超过4.5%，突破关键的36美元/盎司整数关口，达到了自2012年2月以来的最高水平。尽管在收盘时价格有所回落，但仍 收报于35.63美元/盎司。 今年以来，现货白银累计涨幅已达约24%，展现出强劲的上升势头。投资白银的时机到了吗？后市会怎么走？ 白银价格涨幅超过黄金 市场数据显示，本周现货黄金价格累计上涨约0.6%，而现货白银的累计涨幅却超过9%，站上35美元/盎司关口，其间更是一度突破36美元/盎司关口，为 2012年2月以来首次。 有分析人士表示，这种分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所致。最近一段时间，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当于1盎司 黄金可以换100盎司白银，已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白 ...

Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: US economic data in May, including ADP employment growth, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI, were below expectations and previous values. The OECD cut the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" outlook. However, consumer confidence improved after the tariff truce, with increased spending intentions and lower inflation expectations [5]. - Domestic macro: Amid the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI showed resilience. China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than expected. From January to April, industrial enterprise profits were 21170.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. The May manufacturing PMI rebounded due to trade friction easing and policy support [5]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, Trump's tariffs won't solve the US deficit problem. In China, stable - growth policies focus on existing resources. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, while stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - **Financial markets**: Index futures showed different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.25%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%. Interest rates, foreign exchange, and other financial indicators also had their respective fluctuations [2]. - **Domestic commodities**: Most commodities showed varying degrees of price changes. Alumina had a significant daily decline of 3.92%, while gold had a daily increase of 0.17%. Different sectors such as shipping, precious metals, and energy had their own trends [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.95% daily, and COMEX gold increased by 0.61% daily. Various overseas commodities in energy, precious metals, and agriculture also had different performance [2]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Overseas**: US economic data was weak in May, but consumer confidence improved. The OECD cut the global and US growth forecasts, and the Fed warned of economic uncertainties [5]. - **Domestic**: Manufacturing showed resilience under policies. May's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year from January to April [5]. 3. Asset Views - **Overall**: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [5]. - **Domestic**: Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven stocks [5]. 4. Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas, stagflation trading cools down; in China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [7]. - **Financial**: Stock index futures have rising gaming sentiment but also concerns; index options have a slightly warm sentiment; treasury bond futures may be affected by capital and policy expectations [7]. - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver may adjust short - term due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The shipping market's sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the loading rate increase in June [7]. - **Black building materials**: Coal and coke supply contraction expectations increase, and black prices generally rebound, but different varieties have different trends [7]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: De - stocking slows down, and non - ferrous metals maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Demand growth is lower than expected, and the sector's performance is weak, with different trends for each variety [9]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have a positive impact on cotton prices, and different agricultural products have their own market situations [9].

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（6月6日） 4. 布宜诺斯艾利斯交易所在一份周报中表示："尽管收割延迟，但我们仍然看到单产高于最初预期，特 别是在南部农业区和布宜诺斯艾利斯省西部。"该交易所称，目前本年度大豆已收割完成约88.7%。该 交易所预计阿根廷2024/25年度将收获约5000万吨大豆和4900万吨玉米。 5. USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周 为17%，去年同期为1%。约21%的美国玉米种植区域受到干旱影响，而此前一周为23%，去年同期为 2%。 6. 据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新数据，截至5月30日，美棉ON-call未点价卖出订单51536 手，环比增加1657手；未点价买入订单96452手，环比增加4064手。 7. 据隆众资讯，截止到2025年6月5日，国内纯碱厂家总库存162.70万吨，较上周四增加0.27万吨，涨幅 0.17%。其中轻质纯碱79万吨，环比减少2.83万吨，重质纯碱83.7万吨，环比增加3.10万吨。 8. 智利海关公布的数据显示，智利5月铜出口量为181234吨，当月对中国出口铜32721吨。智 ...