东兴证券近日发布交通运输行业2026年投资策略：回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交 运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资 产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内 卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为积极的影响。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 行业回顾：反内卷带动强周期板块基本面回暖 回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显 弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航 空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为 积极的影响。 2026年展望：重视反内卷受益板块及高确定性个股 我们认为与今年下半年类似的，26年行业需要重点关注的依旧是反内卷和高确定性两条主线。今年国家 层面对反内卷的重视程度明显提升，反内卷对于行业的影响大概率会长期化，并对26年相关行业的股价 走势造成重要影响。因此我们建议持续关注受益于反内卷的相关板块，包括航空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by the Qinghai Provincial Committee emphasizes the construction of a modern infrastructure system in the region, focusing on enhancing safety, sustainability, and digital transformation of traditional infrastructure [1] Infrastructure Development - Strengthening overall planning of infrastructure, optimizing layout and structure, and promoting integration and resilience [1] - Advancing new infrastructure with a focus on 5G-A and 10G networks, and orderly deployment of sixth-generation mobile communication networks [1] - Accelerating the digital, networked, and intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure [1] Transportation Network - Promoting the construction of a modern railway network, including the electrification of the Xining to Chengdu railway and the Golmud to Lhasa railway [1] - Enhancing connectivity with the "Belt and Road" initiative and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [1] - Improving the road network to ensure smooth transportation routes, including upgrades to national and provincial roads and rural road enhancements [1] Airport and Air Traffic - Promoting the construction of a high-altitude airport cluster and orderly layout of general airports and low-altitude infrastructure [1] - Establishing a multi-level hub system centered around national comprehensive transportation hubs and regional traffic nodes [1] Water Resource Management - Accelerating the construction of a modern high-altitude water network and implementing key water resource allocation projects [1] - Researching and promoting major water diversion projects to optimize water resource allocation in key areas [1] - Strengthening flood prevention and disaster reduction systems in modern river basins [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which has seen a decline of 0.47% as of December 8, 2025, with Xiamen Bank leading the gains among constituent stocks [1] - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) has a latest scale of 47.8753 million yuan and a total of 41.1866 million shares, indicating a significant interest from investors with a net inflow of 3.4908 million yuan over the last three days [1] - The ETF closely tracks the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, selecting 100 listed companies with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends from state-owned enterprises [2] Group 2 - According to Huachuang Securities, dividend assets show value across various sectors including transportation, finance, energy, food and beverage, home appliances, real estate, metals, and publishing [2] - In the transportation sector, long-duration assets such as highways, ports, and railways exhibit defensive stability, with a recommendation for high-quality highway assets with growth potential [2] - The coal industry is experiencing enhanced profitability stability due to unexpected anti-involution policies and supply constraints, indicating a positive outlook for dividend assets amid high-quality economic development [2] Group 3 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for a total of 16.99%, with notable stocks including COSCO Shipping Holdings and Jizhong Energy [3] - The performance of the top ten stocks shows varied results, with COSCO Shipping Holdings declining by 0.47% and Jizhong Energy by 0.85%, while Lu'an Environmental Energy remained unchanged [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the oil tanker sector, indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, reaching a peak of $126,000 per day on November 21, 2025, and slightly decreasing to $122,000 per day by November 28, 2025 [1][11]. - The report anticipates sustained demand for oil transportation due to global crude oil production increases and ongoing sanctions affecting non-compliant oil trade [2][22]. - The supply-side dynamics remain stable, with stricter environmental policies countering the limited new ship deliveries [25][26]. Industry Data Tracking - In the aviation sector, domestic passenger volume increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with an average ticket price rise of 3.0% [8][27]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 12.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [43][47]. - The report notes a slight decline in the transportation sector, with a 0.5% drop in the transportation index, underperforming against the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points [62][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity and dividend value, particularly in the oil and air transport sectors [3][4]. - Specific recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [26][22].

Core Insights - Morocco's Ministry of Equipment and Water Resources plans to implement large-scale investments in the fiscal year 2026 to address challenges posed by climate change [1] - The total investment scale is projected to reach $5.87 billion, including $4.05 billion in committed funds and $1.83 billion in disbursed funds [1] Investment Allocation - Water resources are prioritized, with $1.1 billion in disbursed funds and $1.71 billion in committed funds, highlighting water security as a core national strategy [2] - The road program has the highest committed funds at $1.62 billion, with $390 million in disbursed funds, aimed at ensuring continuity in structural road projects and network expansion [2] - The port program allocates $290 million in disbursed funds and $690 million in committed funds, focusing on major port projects along the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts [2] - The meteorological program has $5.1 million in disbursed funds and $6.3 million in committed funds, aimed at modernizing forecasting and warning systems [2]

Core Viewpoint - China is accelerating the improvement of its modern comprehensive transportation system during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to build a strong transportation nation by 2035, with significant investments in key projects like the Pinglu Canal and various technological innovations [1][2]. Group 1: Transportation Infrastructure Development - The Pinglu Canal, a landmark project with an investment of 72.7 billion yuan, is set to be completed by the end of 2026, enhancing connectivity from Nanning to the Beibu Gulf [3]. - China's high-speed rail and highway networks are the largest in the world, covering 99% of cities with over 200,000 people and 97% of cities with over 500,000 people, respectively [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a comprehensive transportation network, focusing on optimizing the "6 axes, 7 corridors, and 8 channels" framework [5]. Group 2: Logistics and Cost Reduction - The importance of transportation logistics has been elevated, with new specialized planning being developed by transportation management departments for the first time [7]. - The goal is to reduce the logistics cost-to-GDP ratio to around 13.5% by 2027, compared to the current 14.0%, which is already the lowest level recorded [8][9]. - The plan includes optimizing transportation structures, increasing the share of rail freight, and enhancing intermodal transport efficiency [9][10]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Six major innovative projects, including intelligent driving for freight trucks and autonomous navigation for inland cargo ships, will be fully deployed during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [12]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in transportation is being promoted, with over 100 pilot projects planned to enhance smart logistics and safety [13][15]. - The development of a unified system for multimodal transport is underway, aiming to streamline operations and reduce costs through standardized practices [10][11].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares indices opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.35%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.03%, and ChiNext Index up 1.79% [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities continues to recommend cyclical sectors such as aviation, oil transportation, and road infrastructure, citing improved industrial production and export conditions, as well as a moderate recovery in consumer data [2] - The aviation sector is expected to see continued recovery in revenue levels due to low supply growth, industry self-regulation, and a low base effect [2] - The oil transportation sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+/Americas production increases and low oil prices [2] - The road infrastructure sector is seen as having upward potential due to attractive dividend yields and increased insurance fund allocations [2] Group 3: Industry Focus - CITIC Construction Investment is optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry, expecting demand to recover by year-end and improvements in fundamentals and valuations [3] - The blood products sector is highlighted for its focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma station construction and industry consolidation [3] - The vaccine industry is monitored for sales improvements of key products and progress in innovative pipelines, with policies and international expansion expected to drive further development [3] - The pharmaceutical retail sector is undergoing steady transformation, with attention on multi-faceted catalysts for growth [3] - The pharmaceutical distribution sector shows stable revenue growth, with a focus on receivables and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations yesterday, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closing in the green. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion, a decrease of 200.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the highest gains included precious metals, military industry, and aquaculture, while sectors such as Hainan, gas, and film and television box office experienced declines. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.25% [1]. Investment Recommendations Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities continues to recommend cyclical aviation, trading in oil transportation, and allocation in highways. The firm notes that external uncertainties have settled, leading to a recovery in industrial production and export sentiment, along with a mild rebound in consumer data. Specifically, they expect: 1. Aviation: October ticket prices continue to improve, supported by low supply growth and a low base, indicating a sustained recovery in industry profitability. 2. Oil Transportation: Multiple favorable factors, including OPEC+/U.S. production increases and low oil prices, are expected to maintain high activity levels in the oil transportation sector. 3. Highways: With insurance funds beginning year-end allocations, the highway sector is anticipated to have upward potential due to attractive dividend yields [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine industry, anticipating a recovery in demand by year-end and subsequent improvements in fundamentals and valuations. They highlight: - The easing of short-term base pressure and accelerated channel inventory clearance. - The potential for innovative areas to create a second growth curve, with significant brand extension opportunities for Chinese medicine consumer goods. - Attention to the blood products sector regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan" for plasma stations and industry consolidation, as well as the vaccine sector's product sales and innovation pipeline [3]. Tianfeng Securities - Tianfeng Securities suggests focusing on the recovery opportunities in the liquor sector, noting a "volume increase, price drop" trend during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival. Key points include: - Traditional e-commerce platforms saw major liquor prices fall below critical levels due to inventory pressures, while emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin experienced growth. - Liquor companies are actively combating counterfeiting and stabilizing prices through authorized and unauthorized listings. - The industry is shifting from price wars to value reconstruction, emphasizing high-quality products and refined channel operations. The current dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [4].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，华泰证券研报表示，近期外部不确定性落地，工业生产及出口景气度回升，消费数据温 和回暖，看好：1. 航空：10月票价延续改善趋势，考虑到供给低增速+行业反内卷+低基数，行业收益 水平的回暖有望延续。2. 油运：OPEC+/美洲增产+跨区域油价差套利+低油价带动补库+地缘事件扰动 等多重利好共振下，油运板块高景气有望延续。3. 公路：保险资金年末开启配置"开门红"，市场风险偏 好有所震荡，叠加AH公路股息率均有吸引力，板块仍有上行空间。此外，持续推荐具备自身Alpha的部 分个股。 ...

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to continue its recovery trend in ticket prices due to low supply growth, industry self-regulation, and a low base effect [1] - The overall revenue levels in the aviation sector are anticipated to improve [1] Group 2: Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation sector is projected to maintain high prosperity driven by multiple factors including OPEC+/U.S. production increases, cross-regional price arbitrage, low oil prices boosting inventory replenishment, and geopolitical disturbances [1] Group 3: Highway Sector - The highway sector is expected to have upward potential as insurance funds begin year-end allocations, and the market's risk appetite experiences fluctuations [1] - The attractive dividend yields of AH highway stocks contribute to the sector's appeal [1] Group 4: Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with traditional e-commerce platforms seeing prices fall below critical levels due to dealer inventory pressures and platform subsidies [2] - Emerging channels like instant retail and Douyin are showing growth, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards "buy now, drink now" [2] - Major liquor companies are initiating anti-counterfeiting actions to stabilize prices and balance online and offline channel interests [2] Group 5: Traditional Chinese Medicine Sector - The traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to see demand recovery by year-end, with inventory levels clearing up [3] - There are opportunities for fundamental and valuation improvements in the sector [3] - The innovation sector is seen as a potential second growth curve for traditional Chinese medicine companies [3] Group 6: Blood Products and Vaccine Industries - The blood products sector is focused on the "14th Five-Year" plan for plasma station construction and industry consolidation [3] - The vaccine industry is monitoring sales improvements of key products and progress in innovative pipelines, with policies and international expansion expected to drive further development [3]