Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasizes the deepening of the construction of a unified national market, with a focus on the basic requirements of "Five Unifications and One Opening" [1][2]. Group 1: Five Unifications and One Opening - The basic requirements of "Five Unifications and One Opening" include unifying market basic systems, infrastructure, government behavior standards, market supervision and law enforcement, and resource markets, while continuously expanding domestic and international openness [2][5]. - The shift from "Five Unifications and One Breaking" to "Five Unifications and One Opening" reflects a strategic upgrade, indicating a transition from breaking down barriers to enabling openness and collaboration [3][4]. Group 2: Focus Areas and Implementation - The meeting highlights the need to focus on key challenges such as regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhancing product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [6][11]. - The establishment of foundational systems for the unified national market is underway, including the introduction of the "Fair Competition Review Regulations" to ensure equal participation in market competition [4][5]. Group 3: International Trade and Market Integration - The emphasis on expanding domestic and international openness is crucial for the construction of a unified national market, with a focus on integrating domestic and foreign trade to facilitate the flow of goods and resources [8][9]. - The meeting stresses the importance of promoting high-level openness and the integration of domestic and international markets as a pathway to enhance economic resilience [8][10].

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，由于美元走弱，伦敦金小幅回升，并收复 3300 美元关口，最终 | | 研究员：王伟 | 收涨 0.88%，收报 3302.15 美元/盎司；伦敦银最终收涨 0.36%，报 36.09 美元/盎司。受 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 0.54%，报 768.98 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.10%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 8722 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数日内震荡下行，跌破 97 关口，最终收跌 0.54%，报 96.875。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率高开低走，收报 4.23%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

Economic Growth and Industrial Development - The GDP of Fangchenggang City grew by 7.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with industrial investment increasing by 40.2% and the added value of emerging industries accounting for 35% [1] - The city is implementing a three-year action plan focusing on attracting major projects and reforming traditional industries to build a modern industrial system [1] Traditional Industry Upgrading - Guangxi Huasheng New Materials Co., Ltd. has achieved a 35% utilization rate of red mud, surpassing the industry average of 20%, contributing to the green and sustainable development of the aluminum industry [2] - The city is promoting the transformation of traditional industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals towards high-end, intelligent, and green production [2][4] - Guangxi Hongwang New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is establishing a smart manufacturing model factory for cold-rolled silicon steel, with an automation rate exceeding 90% [3] Emerging Industries Cultivation - The Fangchenggang Medical Manufacturing Industrial Park is developing rapidly, with 7 companies already reserving 40% of the factory space for biomedicine and traditional Chinese medicine production [5] - Guangxi Ganhua Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is focusing on the research and production of bioactive peptides, achieving a 40% increase in absorption rate compared to traditional products [6] - The city is fostering new industries such as marine and biomedical sectors, with projects like the Precision Medicine Research Center underway [6] Renewable Energy and Low-altitude Economy - Guangxi Huijin New Energy Co., Ltd. has launched a project for producing battery-grade manganese sulfate, utilizing by-products from copper smelting, which will consume 15,000 tons of sulfuric acid annually [7] - The city is collaborating with Guangxi Beitou Low-altitude Economy Investment Co., Ltd. to develop a low-altitude economic industry demonstration base [7] Marine Economy Development - The offshore wind power demonstration project in Fangchenggang generated 470 million kWh of electricity in Q1 2025, with advanced AI algorithms improving operational efficiency [8] - The city is enhancing its port infrastructure, with a cargo throughput of 47.93 million tons in Q1 2025, marking a 15.3% increase [8][9] - Fangchenggang is developing modern marine fisheries, with a project to raise 400,000 golden pomfret fry expected to yield 175 tons and generate approximately 65 million yuan in revenue [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It evaluates the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for each commodity based on supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic factors, and industry - specific events. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. US PMI data exceeded expectations while European PMI data was weak. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and Glencore stated that the mountain ISA smelter was difficult to continue operating. Demand showed some resilience, with premiums for flat - water copper in East and South China at 70 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the London structure at a 392 - dollar back [1]. - Trading strategy: Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 20,365 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 435 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2,559 dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: LME has forced traders holding near - month contract positions exceeding available inventory to reduce their positions to limit spot liquidity risk. Aluminum ingots have seen inventory accumulation (15,000 tons) for the first time since June. It is necessary to observe whether the inventory accumulation is continuous, and aluminum prices may come under pressure to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 2,906 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 288 yuan/ton. On June 20, India had a transaction of 30,000 tons at a price of 366 dollars/ton (the previous transaction was also at 366 dollars/ton) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production capacity continued to be released, and the operating capacity increased. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity was stable [1]. - Trading strategy: The alumina futures price encountered resistance when rising. In the medium term, the pressure of production capacity release and inventory accumulation persists, and the price may continue to operate at a low level [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 09 contract closed at 7,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 303,119 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 439 lots to 54,184 lots [1]. - Fundamentals: Last week, spot prices stopped falling. On the supply side, there was no significant contraction, and the number of open furnaces increased by 5. Weekly inventory decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and after the market decline, the visible inventory of warehouse receipts turned into invisible inventory. On the demand side, the production of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared to May, and there are plans for复产 this week. The production of organic silicon was relatively stable, and the decline in industrial chain prices widened. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [1]. - Trading strategy: If the futures price continues to rise, it may face hedging pressure, and the rebound of the market may be limited. Before there is an effective reduction in actual supply during the flood season, maintain a bearish view. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level. Consider shorting lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to the on - site sentiment at the Leshan industry conference [1]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 08 contract closed at 30,615 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 10,054 lots to 78,183 lots. The 11 contract closed at 30,030 yuan/ton. Today, the warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged at 2,600 lots (7,800 tons) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production changed little, and the industry inventory decreased slightly. There are still expectations of复产 in the future, and the market is pessimistic about the joint production cuts by leading enterprises. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, which is related to the production scheduling of some enterprises' previous orders in the third quarter due to limited quotas. The expected production schedule for the third quarter is still declining quarter - on - quarter. According to the balance sheet, inventory will start to accumulate in July [1]. - Trading strategy: The industry's复产 plan exceeded expectations. In the short term, it is recommended to go short on the 07 contract on rallies. Pay attention to the industry's production cut plan [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined, affected by favorable weather in the production area and the sharp drop in crude oil prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply from South America was abundant in the near term, and the growth of US soybeans was normal in the long term. On the demand side, South America was the main influence in the short term, US soybean exports were seasonally weak, but the US biodiesel policy was beneficial to the demand for soybean crushing [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate strongly; in China, although there will be a large arrival of soybeans later, demand will also remain high. The domestic market will follow the international cost side [2]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2509 contract corrected, and the spot price of corn declined slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: This year, the supply - demand situation has tightened marginally, and the grain rights have shifted to channels, increasing the bargaining power of channels. The expected import volume of substitutes will decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. The wheat support - price purchase has boosted the wheat price, which will also drive up the corn price. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Trading strategy: With the reduction of remaining grain and the wheat support - price purchase, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and Malaysia's production in May increased by 5% month - on - month. On the demand side, the exports from the production area improved month - on - month. ITS showed that exports，from June 1 - 20 increased by 14% month - on - month [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the volatility of palm oil will increase, affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and other factors. The trading difficulty has increased. Pay attention to crude oil and biodiesel policies [2]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2508 contract performed strongly, and the spot price was stable [2]. - Fundamentals: Due to breeding losses, the culling of old hens is expected to decrease temporarily. Supply remains high, and the hot and humid weather is not conducive to egg storage, but low prices stimulate demand. With strong supply and weak demand and cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Trading strategy: With sufficient supply and cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate [2]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig 2509 contract performed strongly, and the spot price of pigs rose [2]. - Fundamentals: Large - scale farms have been continuously reducing the weight of pigs recently, and the pressure to sell at the end of the month has decreased. Small - scale farmers, on the contrary, continue to hold back pigs to gain weight. At the end of the month, the supply from the breeding side will decrease, and the entry of second - fattening will support the price. The pig price is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium term, the supply will continue to increase, and the center of the pig price will gradually decline. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of enterprises and the trend of second - fattening [2]. - Trading strategy: With reduced supply at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Energy Chemicals PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 4,897, down 0.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: PVC was driven up by the rise in crude oil prices and then retreated. On the supply side, the plants of Wanhua, Bohua, etc. are gradually being put into production, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The upstream operating rate is 80%, and maintenance has gradually ended. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing. On June 19, the new sample of PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month and 37.97% year - on - year. India has postponed the BIS anti - dumping investigation until December, which is beneficial to exports. The carbide price is 2,400 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the future. The spot price has stopped rising, with 4,800 yuan in East China and 4,870 yuan in Inner Mongolia [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. Since there is no driving force for a rebound, consider selling call options above 4,950 [4]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX is 899 dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,430 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 5,260 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 264 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: On the cost side of PX, domestic production still has maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shandong Weilian, and the load increase is limited. Overseas, a 400,000 - ton plant of South Korea's GS has restarted, a 500,000 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos has unexpectedly shut down, plants in Iran and Israel have shut down, the restart of a Saudi plant has been postponed, and Vietnam's NSRP has reduced production. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level. For PTA, Hengli Dalian and Fuhai Chuang are implementing maintenance plans, Yisheng New Materials has briefly reduced production, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant has restarted. Overall, the supply has decreased, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. After the peripheral factors drove the market last Friday, there was concentrated replenishment at the terminal; since the weekend, downstream enterprises have mainly been digesting their stocks, with only rigid demand following up. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, both PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern [4]. - Trading strategy: Continue to hold long positions in PX. PTA has tight short - term liquidity but large medium - and long - term surplus pressure. Maintain the view of shorting the processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,007, up 0.1% [4]. - Fundamentals: The glass trading volume has been mixed, and the average price has been stable. Downstream demand is gradually improving. On the supply side, 4 production lines will resume production in July, and the supply growth rate is expected to increase by 1.2% month - on - month. The daily melting volume of glass is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8.8% year - on - year. Inventory has unexpectedly accumulated. On June 19, the upstream inventory was 69,887,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.29% month - on - month and 16.82% year - on - year. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises are 9.8 days, the operating rate is about 48%, which is lower than in previous years. In terms of valuation, losses have increased, with a large loss of 195 yuan for the natural - gas route, a profit of about 85 yuan for the coal - gas route, and a loss of 105 yuan for the petroleum - coke route. The spot prices are 1,120 yuan in North China, 1,020 yuan in Central China, 1,230 yuan in East China, and 1,280 yuan in South China [4]. - Trading strategy: The downward trend of glass prices is hard to reverse. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [4]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,597 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 78 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Plants are restarting in a concentrated manner, increasing the supply. Pay attention to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan at the end of the month. Overseas, plants in Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia have restarted, increasing the import supply. The inventory at East China ports is around 620,000 tons, at a historically low level. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, the supply - demand situation of MEG has weakened [4]. - Trading strategy: With the easing of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to take short positions [4]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,173, down 0.3% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the supply is gradually recovering. On the supply side, the Lianyungang Soda plant has reached full production, and the upstream operating rate of soda ash is 86%. Summer maintenance has gradually ended, and Qinghai Fatou Soda and Xuzhou Fengcheng Soda have maintenance plans this month. Inventory has accumulated at a high level. On June 23, the upstream inventory was 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from last Thursday, a rise of 1.69%. The number of days of pending orders for upstream manufacturers is 11 days. The inventory at delivery warehouses is 311,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,000 tons, the inventory days are 30.5 days, and the photovoltaic glass production line of China National Building Materials Yixing has blocked the kiln mouth. The soda ash price has changed little, with the delivered price around 1,250 yuan, the futures - spot quotation in Shahe at 09 contract + 20, and the factory - pickup price in Inner Mongolia at 09 contract - 160 [4][5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand of soda ash is weak on both sides, and it will oscillate at the bottom. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 for soda ash options [5].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may face tightening, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US-China relations, leading to a potential volatile market [2] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong stock market remain positive due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a favorable long-term investment value [2] Market Data Summary - The domestic new fund market is experiencing a surge with 50 new funds launched, primarily equity mixed funds, while the net value of equity funds has collectively declined [3] - Notably, the net inflow into stock ETFs reached 14.669 billion yuan, with a focus on small-cap and sci-tech boards, while large-cap ETFs saw net outflows [3] Industry Research Summary Automotive Industry - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2025, driven by advancements in reinforcement learning and large models [4] - Recommended companies include Tesla for L4 pure vision Robotaxi and suppliers like Nidec for steer-by-wire systems, along with Xpeng Motors and a focus on Li Auto and NIO [4] High-end Manufacturing - Optimus robots are set for major improvements, with a positive outlook on humanoid robotics and specific attention to high-complexity dexterous hands and rolling screw technology [5] - The engineering machinery sector is facing short-term domestic pressure but maintains a growth trend in exports, with recommended companies including Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [5] Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic air conditioning sales increased by 2.3% in May, while production fell by 1.8%, indicating potential demand weakness [6] - The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize in the short term but are expected to rise gradually with domestic stimulus policies and potential US interest rate cuts [6] Basic Chemicals - The report highlights the long-term value of leading companies in the chemical industry, with recommendations for major players in oil and gas, low-valuation chemical leaders, and new materials sectors [8] - Specific companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector [9] - Key companies to focus on include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, which are positioned for rapid development and internationalization [9] Steel Industry - The report notes a decline in the domestic alumina capacity utilization rate to a new low for 2023, with expectations for steel sector profitability to recover to historical averages [10] - The revised steel industry standards are anticipated to support this recovery [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at a high level, and attention should be paid to LME delivery risks. The borrow strategy for copper can continue to be held, and options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Alumina supply and demand are expected to return to an excess situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. After the correction, attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread for arbitrage, and options should be on the sidelines [19][20][22]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between -200 and -1000 yuan, and options should be on the sidelines [26][28][29]. - Zinc prices may decline as inventories accumulate. Consider shorting distant - month contracts on rallies, and be wary of macro - risks. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [33][34][36]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [39][40]. - Nickel prices are oscillating downward. Consider selling call options, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [44][46][48]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak and decline. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines [52][53][56]. - Tin prices face pressure at the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin mine production, and options should be on the sidelines [59][60][61]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand remain in an excess pattern. Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options and Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [66][67]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline. Short - term short positions can be considered, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [70][72][73]. - Lithium carbonate prices have limited upside. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and do not bottom - fish. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [76][77][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, up 0.14%, with the Shanghai Copper Index reducing positions by 5,943 lots to 525,200 lots [2]. - Spot: Spot premiums declined in Shanghai, Guangdong, and North China [2]. - **Important Information** - In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, down 9.55% month - on - month and 6.53% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 292,700 tons, down 2.49% month - on - month and 15.64% year - on - year [3][4]. - As of June 23, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to LME delivery risks [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [8]. - Options: On the sidelines [9] Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,906 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 4,632 lots to 430,300 lots [10]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Related Information** - In June, India had a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at an FOB price of 366 dollars/ton. - It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will reach 9.35 - 9.4 billion tons by the end of the month [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [15]. - Options: On the sidelines [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 20,365 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 18,755 lots to 665,800 lots [17]. - Spot: Spot prices in East, South, and Central China declined [17]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 92.92GW, up 388.03% year - on - year [18]. - On June 23, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 462,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last Thursday [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment after the price correction [22]. - Arbitrage: Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread [22]. - Options: On the sidelines [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,380 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 130 lots to 9,714 lots [24]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained flat [24]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also increased significantly [24]. - On June 23, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 19 tons [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference is between -200 and -1000 yuan [29]. - Options: On the sidelines [29] Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.18% to 21,780 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index increasing positions by 258 lots to 259,600 lots [31]. - Spot: Spot prices in Shanghai were stable, and the premium was stable, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,800 tons, down 1,000 tons from June 16 and 1,800 tons from June 19 [32]. - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain over the weekend, and transportation was restricted [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies for distant - month contracts, be wary of macro - risks [34]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [36]. - Options: On the sidelines [36] Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.39% to 16,930 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index reducing positions by 3,480 lots to 81,000 lots [35]. - Spot: The average price of SMM 1 lead remained flat, and the supply of recycled lead was scarce [38]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot social inventory was 55,700 tons, down about 700 tons from June 16 [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips [40]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [40]. - Options: On the sidelines [40] Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2507 fell 1,340 to 117,440 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 11,384 lots [42]. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased, while that of Russian nickel remained flat [42]. - **Related Information** - PT Gag Nickel will resume operations in West Papua. The Qing Shan Industrial Park in Indonesia will strengthen environmental compliance management [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is oscillating downward, pay attention to macro and nickel ore changes [46]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [47]. - Options: Consider selling call options [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract fell 145 to 12,390 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 25,926 lots [50]. - Spot: Cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices are given [50]. - **Related Information** - Indonesia's first professional anti - corrosion stainless - steel factory was put into operation [51]. - In May, China's stainless - steel imports from Indonesia decreased, and exports to Vietnam increased [51]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is expected to decline weakly [53]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [56]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or 0.05%, with positions decreasing by 524 lots to 49,660 lots [55]. - Spot: Spot prices declined, and the market trading was light [57]. - **Related Information** - In April 2025, the global semiconductor sales were 57 billion dollars, up 2.5% from March 2025 and 22.7% from April 2024 [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to the resumption of tin mine production [60]. - Options: On the sidelines [61] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7,420 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [62]. - Spot: Downstream procurement improved, and spot prices were stable [63]. - **Related Information** - In May, the total social electricity consumption was 809.6 billion kWh, up 4.4% year - on - year [64]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds [67]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [67]. - Arbitrage: Participate in the Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [67] Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract fell 3.33% to 30,615 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [68]. - **Related Information** - From January to May 2025, China's new - installed photovoltaic capacity was 197.85GW, up 150% year - on - year [69]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions [73]. - Options: On the sidelines [73]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract fell 460 to 59,120 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 9,340 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreasing by 1,014 to 26,779 tons [74]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [74]. - **Related Information** - In May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 605,000 tons, slightly down 2.9% month - on - month [75]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not bottom - fish [77]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [78]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [79]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]