Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to systematically address the challenges of red mud utilization, promoting industrial green transformation and circular economy development in Henan Province [1] Group 1: Overview of Red Mud Utilization - Red mud is a major solid waste from the alumina industry, with significant production and storage volumes, making its comprehensive utilization crucial for ecological protection and resource efficiency [1] - The plan sets phased goals: by 2027, achieve a 15% increase in red mud utilization rate; by 2030, reach a 25% utilization rate with a mature innovation system [1] Group 2: Action Plans - Four major actions with 11 specific tasks are outlined to achieve the goals [2] - "Source Control Action" aims to reduce red mud output through clean production and technological upgrades, targeting a reduction of at least 5% in output by 2030 compared to 2024 [2] - "Comprehensive Utilization Expansion Action" focuses on expanding existing utilization, supporting applications in iron extraction, building materials, and new material development in various sectors [2] - "Technological Innovation Enhancement Action" emphasizes key technologies for reducing red mud generation and improving utilization efficiency, alongside building platforms for innovation and commercialization [2] - "Industrial Collaborative Development Action" encourages regional coordination in red mud utilization, promoting cross-industry collaboration and information sharing [2]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's alumina production, indicating a significant increase in output and projecting future trends in the industry [1]. Industry Overview - As of September 2025, China's alumina production reached 8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total alumina production in China was 68.56 million tons, with an overall increase of 8.4% compared to the previous year [1]. Companies Involved - Listed companies in the alumina sector include China Aluminum (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Hongchuang Holdings (002379), Minfa Aluminum (002578), and Ningbo Fubang (600768) [1]. Research and Analysis - The report titled "Analysis of Development Models and Future Prospects of China's Alumina Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been dedicated to industry research for over a decade, providing comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the alumina market is experiencing a decline in prices due to oversupply and limited demand, but recent production adjustments by some companies may provide short-term support for prices [1][2][10] - As of November 14, 2025, the average spot price of alumina in China was 2832.95 CNY/ton, down 38.45 CNY/ton from October 31, reflecting a decline of 1.34% [1] - The operating capacity of alumina production in China is at 75.19%, with a slight decrease of 0.40 percentage points compared to the previous period, indicating some production adjustments [2] Group 2 - New alumina production capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2025, with a total built capacity of 11465 million tons and an additional 1380 million tons added during the year, primarily in Shandong, Guangxi, Hebei, and Gansu [4] - The alumina market is under pressure due to stable output from new capacities and the expectation of further capacity additions in 2026, which may exacerbate oversupply [6] - The demand for alumina remains stable, with 95% of alumina used for electrolytic aluminum production, but actual demand growth is limited due to constraints in electrolytic aluminum capacity [6] Group 3 - The price of bauxite, a key raw material for alumina production, has decreased significantly, leading to reduced production costs for companies, although profit margins are still under pressure due to falling alumina prices [7] - Recent macroeconomic factors, such as US-China tariff negotiations and interest rate cuts, have positively influenced aluminum prices, which in turn may support alumina prices [9] - Overall, while some alumina companies are facing slight losses and production adjustments are being made, the market remains oversupplied, and prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines in the near term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit [3] - The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other, and the supply pressure in the domestic market increases [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production - cut expectation, and the cost support is limited, making it difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [3] - In the long term, the alumina production - cut problem will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2291, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 760, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2375, and the basis was 84 [1] Spot News - On November 17, due to poor unloading of alumina, the main downstream product in Shandong, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda was reduced by 10 yuan to 720 yuan, and the transaction prices in cities across Shandong followed the decline, with a relatively large drop in the southwestern Shandong market due to high inventory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high - production and high - inventory situation of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting chlor - alkali profit [3] - From the demand side, the impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda offsets each other. In winter, there is limited supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling under high - operation conditions. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production - cut expectations, cost support is limited, and without production cuts by manufacturers, it's hard for caustic soda to rebound significantly. In the long run, alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Group 1 - Guinea's mining sector faces new disruptions as the Ministry of Mines orders AGB2A-GIC and SD Mining to withdraw all mining equipment from Axis Minerals by November 10, 2025, leading to a stalemate in the resumption of mining activities [2] - The market's reaction to the recent disruptions has been muted compared to the significant price increases in alumina following the May 2023 mining license revocations, which affected over 40 mining companies and halted operations at a capacity of approximately 40 million tons per year [2] - The recent disruptions are seen as an escalation of the government's earlier actions regarding mining licenses, which had previously raised concerns about alumina supply interruptions [2] Group 2 - Market reassessment of bauxite supply dynamics has led to a limited impact on prices, with projections indicating a net increase of 25 million tons in bauxite supply from Guinea in 2026 due to new projects and expansions [3] - In September, China's total bauxite imports reached 15.88 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% but a year-on-year increase of 37.5%, with 10.49 million tons sourced from Guinea [3] - Cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea for the year reached 11.84 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40%, despite the slowdown in shipments following the May license revocations [3] Group 3 - As of September, cumulative bauxite imports for the year totaled 15.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.8%, while China's alumina production reached 66.84 million tons, up 9.82% year-on-year [5] - The current market for bauxite is characterized by oversupply, making it unlikely that disruptions in Guinea will significantly alter the loose supply conditions or provide substantial support for alumina prices [5] - Despite some production cuts due to environmental regulations and declining profit margins in the alumina sector, the overall supply-demand imbalance persists, with ongoing pressure on alumina prices from import levels and new production capacity [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The alumina production and reduction expectations have offsetting effects on caustic soda. The winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina reduction expectation. The cost increase due to liquid chlorine price reduction can only lead to a low - level valuation repair, and the rebound space of caustic soda is limited without production cuts. In the long run, alumina production reduction will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain. [2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On November 11, 2025, the 01 contract futures price of caustic soda was 2349, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda folded to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 89. [1] [Spot News] - On November 10, the caustic soda market in Shandong showed a differentiated trend. In the western market, due to increased supply and poor demand, some transaction prices continued to decline. In the eastern market, the sales were average, and it remained stable for the time being supported by alumina. [2] [Market Condition Analysis] - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting the chlor - alkali profit. Alumina's production and reduction expectations offset each other's impact on caustic soda. The winter is an off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is weak, and exports face pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production reduction expectations. Cost increase from liquid chlorine price reduction can only repair low - level valuations, and the rebound space is limited without production cuts. Long - term alumina production reduction will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain. [2] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina supply has little change after NIMBA Mining initiated the ship transfer procedure. The alumina price has a theoretical downward space, but over - speculation is not advisable. The industry is in an over - supply stage, and a bearish approach can be taken if there is a price rebound [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Shanxi 58/5 bauxite was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the rainy season in Shanxi and Henan, some mines are resuming production, but environmental controls in the north will reduce output. The supply of domestic ore is hard to improve in the short term. Guinea ore is priced at 71 - 72 dollars/dry ton, while downstream enterprises' purchase intention is at 69 - 70 dollars/ton. NIMBA Mining has initiated a 200,000 - ton ore ship transfer, and about 1.5 million tons of port inventory is to be exported. Some inland mines in Guinea will increase shipments in November. Newly - arrived ore was 3.845 million tons, including 2.793 million tons from Guinea and 1.052 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China is 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2837.5 yuan/ton, down 33.7 yuan/ton. The import port price was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged. Electrolytic aluminum plants are starting winter storage, and alumina enterprises are mainly fulfilling long - term contracts. The Australian alumina is priced at about 320 dollars/ton, and the cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2828 yuan/ton, with the northern theoretical import profit dropping to about - 26 yuan/ton. The domestic full - cost of alumina is 2819 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit is 89 yuan/ton. Some enterprises' roasting was suspended due to pollution warnings, while some increased production slightly. The national alumina production capacity is 114.62 million tons, with 96.85 million tons in operation, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate is 84.5% [13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Xinjiang Tianlong Mining stopped 27 electrolytic cells due to pollution warnings, affecting about 20,000 tons of production capacity. Xinjiang Tianshan Aluminum plans to start 60 electrolytic cells on November 21, 2025, with a production capacity of about 66,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.233 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the operating capacity at 29.551 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the national alumina inventory was 4.218 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, the bagged inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the northern port inventory increased temporarily, and the inventory in other places also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 253,654 tons, an increase of 16,487 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event Summaries in the Industry Chain - **Rise in Australian FOB Price and Decrease in Import Profit**: As of November 7, the Australian alumina price was about 320 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from October 31. The cost to northern Chinese ports is about 2856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton. The domestic market declined slightly, and the northern theoretical import profit dropped to about - 26 yuan/ton. Due to overseas production cuts and upcoming Indonesian capacity, there is still pressure on overseas alumina prices [16] - **Profit and Loss of Alumina Enterprises and Production Expectations**: The alumina spot price has been falling for three months. Based on the October average price, about 28.95 million tons of the total 98.25 million tons of operating capacity of 39 alumina enterprises are in full - cost loss, accounting for 29.47%. The cash - cost loss capacity is 3.45 million tons, accounting for 3.51%. Losses are mainly in enterprises in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, and Guizhou [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by environmental controls, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to stop 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8. It had stopped 2 furnaces in late October due to pollution warnings and resumed on October 31 [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][23] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][38][41] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' inventory, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, total social inventory, port inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions are presented [44][47][49]