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液化石油气

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能源日报-20250520

Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 12:50

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 01:51

2025 年 5 月 19 日 LPG：成本宽幅震荡，民用气短期承压陈鑫超投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao029552@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | 研究 | | --- | | 所 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2506 | 4,274 | 0.12% | 4,264 | -0.23% | | 期货 | PG2507 | 4,193 | 0.29% | 4,206 | 0.31% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2506 | 75,858 | -3582 | 50,644 | -5757 | | | PG2507 | 35,048 | 2749 | 52,584 | -2970 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价差 | 广州国产气对06合约价差 | 676 | | 681 | | | | 广州进口气对06合约价差 | 746 | | ...