Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish or bearish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. Core View of the Report - Overall, the market sentiment has improved due to the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept, and the cost side provides strong support for prices. Different products in the steel and related industries show different trends and investment opportunities, with short - term rebounds expected in some products and high - level oscillations in others [1]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand and production of rebar both declined, while inventories continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils significantly improved, production increased, and inventories slightly decreased. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to a substantial increase in molten iron production, alleviating the negative feedback pressure. However, poor profit per ton of steel restricts further resumption of production. From August data, domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports remain high. The steel futures market is expected to continue the rebound in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market showed a strong oscillation today. On the supply side, global shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly to near the annual average level, with port inventories increasing slightly recently. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded slightly, molten iron production returned to a high level, and steel mills have pre - holiday inventory replenishment needs. With a warm domestic policy environment and strong expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. Coke - Coke prices continued to rise during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, with decent profits and an increase in daily coking production. Coke inventories increased overall, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Due to high expectations of coking coal over - production inspections and "anti - involution", there are expectations of cost increases for coke. The coke futures market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term callback buying opportunities are recommended [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to rise during the day. Due to high expectations of over - production inspections and "anti - involution", prices quickly rebounded above 1200. Coking coal mine production slightly increased, spot auction transactions weakened, and terminal inventories slightly decreased. Total coking coal inventories increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories slightly increased. Coking coal production disruptions have basically recovered, with little impact on inventories. Buying on dips is recommended in the short term [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly during the day. On the demand side, molten iron production quickly recovered to over 240, with little impact from previous shutdowns. Weekly silicomanganese production continued to increase, and inventories did not accumulate. Manganese ore forward quotes increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted. Manganese ore inventories increased slowly. The silicomanganese futures market is expected to follow the rebound of the black - series products, but the upside is limited by fundamentals [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly during the day. On the demand side, molten iron production quickly recovered to over 240, with little impact from previous shutdowns. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month. Overall demand is acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, and market spot and futures demand was good, with on - balance - sheet inventories slightly decreasing. The ferrosilicon futures market is expected to follow the rebound of the black - series products, but the upside is limited by fundamentals [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On September 16, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1240.5, up 5.84%. Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. After the impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, most mines resumed production. Supply from mines increased this period, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months. Inventory is neutral. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - On September 16, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1735.0, up 4.24%. The spot market saw a second - round price cut for coke. In terms of fundamentals, the pig iron output this period was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. After the impact of steel mill production control for the parade faded, pig iron output returned to the previous level. Coke inventory is moderately high. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1240.50 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1735.00 yuan/ton, up 46.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 982079.00 lots, up 43952.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 53357.00 lots, down 86.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 115144.00 lots, down 5404.00 lots; Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5055.00 lots, up 147.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 89.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 138.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 600.00 pieces, up 100.00 pieces; Coke warehouse receipts: 1520.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 950.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: - 15.00 yuan/ton, down 46.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1080.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; JM main contract basis: 29.50 yuan/ton, down 53.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, unchanged; Raw coal output: 39050.00 million tons, up 951.30 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; Average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 185.60 million tons, up 15.60 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 466.35 million tons, up 1.58 million tons; Coke inventory at 18 ports: 258.31 million tons, down 2.45 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 883.54 million tons, down 36.51 million tons; Coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 67.84 million tons, up 1.33 million tons [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 793.73 million tons, down 2.03 million tons; Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 633.29 million tons, up 9.58 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.81 days, down 0.28 days; Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.29 days, down 0.42 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 0.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 75.92%, up 2.78% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 35.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan/ton; Coke output: 4260.00 million tons, up 74.50 million tons [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.85%, up 3.47%; Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.20%, up 4.43% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7737.00 million tons, down 228.82 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - An important article by Xi Jinping pointed out the need to address the chaotic low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - Rio Tinto's SimFer announced that the first shipment of the Simandou project is planned for November 2025 and will gradually reach the designed capacity of 60 million tons within 30 months [2]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared to January - July; infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, with a 1.2 - percentage - point decline; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a 1.1 - percentage - point decline; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with a 0.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline [2].

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal sector experienced a 0.84% increase on September 16, with Baotailong leading the gains, while the overall market indices showed modest increases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] - The coking coal sector's individual stock performance is detailed in a table, showing various closing prices and percentage changes [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Baotailong (601011) closed at 3.10 with a 2.31% increase and a trading volume of 682,800 shares, amounting to 209 million yuan [1] - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.48, up 2.06%, with a trading volume of 365,900 shares, totaling 90.34 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.65, up 1.96%, with a trading volume of 273,900 shares, totaling 99.31 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) closed at 4.08, up 1.24%, with a trading volume of 494,500 shares, totaling 203 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 3.73, up 1.08%, with a trading volume of 391,000 shares, totaling 146 million yuan [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) remained unchanged at 4.82, with a trading volume of 727,900 shares, totaling 350 million yuan [1] - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 3.98, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 277,900 shares, totaling 111 million yuan [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The coking coal sector saw a net outflow of 59.97 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 65.13 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for individual stocks shows varying levels of net inflow and outflow among main funds, retail investors, and speculative funds [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yunwei Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance with a 2.23% increase on September 16, reaching a price of 3.66 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 4.511 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 8.28%, with a 5-day increase of 5.17%, a 20-day increase of 8.93%, and a 60-day increase of 15.09% [1] - The main business revenue composition of Yunwei Co., Ltd. is 95.38% from coal product sales and 4.62% from sales of other products like coking coal [1] Group 2 - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for Yunwei Co., Ltd. is 35,600, which is a decrease of 2.84% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.92% to 34,619 shares [2] - For the first half of 2025, Yunwei Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 327 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -14.53 million CNY, a significant year-on-year decrease of 362.53% [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Yunwei Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 350 million CNY in dividends, but there have been no dividend distributions in the past three years [3]

Market Overview - The coke sector increased by 0.84% on September 15, with Yunmei Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Yunmei Energy (600792) closed at 66.5, up 2.05% with a trading volume of 243,500 shares and a turnover of 95.91 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (600740) closed at 4.03, up 2.03% with a trading volume of 359,900 shares and a turnover of 144 million yuan [1] - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) closed at 3.69, up 1.65% with a trading volume of 279,200 shares and a turnover of 102 million yuan [1] - Antai Group (600408) closed at 2.43, up 1.25% with a trading volume of 291,000 shares and a turnover of 70.02 million yuan [1] - Baotailong (601011) closed at 3.03, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 388,600 shares and a turnover of 117 million yuan [1] - Meijin Energy (000723) closed at 4.82, up 0.21% with a trading volume of 729,600 shares and a turnover of 350 million yuan [1] - Yunwei Co. (600725) closed at 3.58, down 0.83% with a trading volume of 198,400 shares and a turnover of 70.85 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The coke sector experienced a net outflow of 17.78 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 8.80 million yuan and 8.98 million yuan respectively [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal had a main fund net inflow of 10.80 million yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 9.19 million yuan [2] - Yunmei Energy had a main fund net inflow of 10.02 million yuan, with retail funds also experiencing a net outflow of 7.49 million yuan [2] - Shaanxi Black Cat had a main fund net inflow of 7.54 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 6.93 million yuan [2] - Antai Group had a main fund net outflow of 5.03 million yuan, but retail funds had a net inflow of 709,230 yuan [2] - Meijin Energy experienced a significant main fund net outflow of 35.07 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 1.69 million yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].