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聚酯链日报:需求下滑,聚酯原料价格或继续承压下行-20250923
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 06:59
李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 需求下滑,聚酯原料价格或继续承压下行 通惠期货研发部 1. PTA&PX 09月22日,PX 主力合约收6592.0元/吨,较前一交易日收跌0.03%,基差 为-17.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4586.0元/吨,较前一交易日收跌0.39%, 基差为-26.0元/吨。 成本端,09月22日,布油主力合约收盘66.05美元/桶。WTI收62.36美元/ 桶。需求端,09月22日,轻纺城成交总量为727.0万米,15 日平均成交为 760.53万米。 供给端:素材未提及PX和PTA装置开工率及装置变动相关信息,难以从供给 端判断未来PX和PTA价格走势。 需求端:轻纺城成交总量低于15日平均成交,反映出纺织品市场需求有所 下滑,聚酯产品需求可能随之减少,进而降低对PTA的需求,这可能使PTA 价格面临下行压力,而PTA需求减少也会间接影响PX需求,对PX价格产生一 定负面影响。 库存端:素材未给出PTA工厂库存相关内容,无法 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250923
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 04:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].
能源化工期权策略早报:能源化工期权-20250923
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:00
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report, covering energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, etc.), polyesters (PX, PTA, etc.), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and other energy and chemical products [3]. - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly as a seller, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Crude oil (SC2511) latest price is 478, down 7, a decline of 1.38%, with a trading volume of 9.61 million lots and an open interest of 3.53 million lots [4]. - LPG (PG2511) latest price is 4,259, down 34, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 9.06 million lots and an open interest of 8.12 million lots [4]. - Other varieties such as methanol, ethylene glycol, etc., also have corresponding price, trading volume, and open - interest data [4]. Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For crude oil options, the volume PCR is 0.83, down 0.11, and the open - interest PCR is 0.88, down 0.15 [5]. - For LPG options, the volume PCR is 1.83, up 0.62, and the open - interest PCR is 0.79, down 0.03 [5]. Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure level for crude oil is 570 and the support level is 480 [6]. - The pressure level for LPG is 4,500 and the support level is 4,200 [6]. Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.57%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.81%, up 0.83 [7]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of LPG options is 17.815%, and the weighted implied volatility is 19.67%, down 0.13 [7]. Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy - related Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis: OPEC plans to discuss early release of 1.6 million barrels per day of production cuts, and Russia has production cut plans from July to December and supports extending the gasoline export ban until November [8]. - Market analysis: Crude oil has shown a bearish market trend since July, with weak fluctuations in September [8]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open - interest PCR above 1.00 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 570 and 480 respectively [8]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. Energy - related Options (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: PDH plant maintenance is stable, but profit decline may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization [9][10]. - Market analysis: LPG has shown an oversold rebound market trend with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,200 respectively [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. Alcohol - related Options (Methanol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is at a new high, and enterprise inventory and orders have changed [10]. - Market analysis: Methanol has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped and fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a weak sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 2,400 and 2,250 respectively [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. Alcohol - related Options (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term and may enter a stocking cycle later [11]. - Market analysis: Ethylene glycol has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [11]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.60 indicates strong bearish power, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,250 respectively [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [11]. Polyolefin - related Options - Fundamental analysis: PE and PP inventory levels have changed, with PP having higher inventory pressure [12]. - Market analysis: Polypropylene has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [12]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a weakening trend, and the pressure and support levels are 7,400 and 6,700 respectively [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12]. Rubber - related Options - Fundamental analysis: Affected by the rubber tapping season in Southeast Asia and increased overseas supply expectations, the global rubber futures market has continued to decline [13]. - Market analysis: Rubber has shown a weak sideways market trend with support below and pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has risen sharply and then dropped to around the mean, open - interest PCR below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 17,000 and 14,000 respectively [13]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. Polyester - related Options (PTA) - Fundamental analysis: PTA social inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern [13]. - Market analysis: PTA has shown a weak bearish market trend with pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level above the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.70 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 5,000 and 4,400 respectively [13]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental analysis: Caustic soda plant inventory has increased [14]. - Market analysis: Caustic soda has shown a downward - trending market with pressure above [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, open - interest PCR below 0.90 indicates a weak sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 3,000 and 2,440 respectively [14]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [14]. Alkali - related Options (Soda Ash) - Fundamental analysis: Soda ash plant inventory has decreased, and inventory available days have shortened [14]. - Market analysis: Soda ash has shown a low - level sideways market trend with support below [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong bearish pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1,300 and 1,200 respectively [14]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [14]. Urea - related Options - Fundamental analysis: Urea enterprise inventory is at a high level, and domestic demand is weak [15]. - Market analysis: Urea has shown a weak sideways market trend at a low level [15]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical mean, open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong bearish pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1,800 and 1,620 respectively [15]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [15].
化工装置深挖系列二:聚酯产业链上下游配套与边际装置分析
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 07:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report is the second in the series of in - depth studies on chemical plants. It analyzes the upstream - downstream matching of the polyester industry chain and the marginal plants of futures varieties such as PX, PTA, PR, and PF. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching account for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounts for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounts for 72.1% of the production capacity. The marginal plants are identified from aspects like old plants, small single - line production capacity or enterprise scale, high production process costs, and long distances for raw material procurement or product sales [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Matching Analysis 3.1.1 Group - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching As of the end of July 2025, China's PX, PTA, and polyester production capacities were 4367, 9171.5, and 8894 tons respectively. The theoretical annual PX gap was 1640 tons, and the theoretical annual PTA surplus was 1567 tons. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching accounted for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounted for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounted for 72.1% of the production capacity. The enterprises in the polyester industry chain can be classified into four types: those with complete PX/PTA/polyester matching; those mainly with polyester and PTA matching but little PX matching; those with only PX and PTA matching; and those with relatively single matching [10][11]. 3.1.2 Region - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching The production capacity of the polyester industry chain is concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, etc. Except for Shandong having a large surplus of PX for sale, most other regions have PX production capacity gaps or are basically balanced. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning have the largest PX gaps. In terms of PTA, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have large PTA production capacity gaps, while Liaoning, Guangdong, and other regions have PTA surpluses [12][15][16]. 3.2 PX Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, China's total PX production capacity was 4367 tons, with an effective operating capacity of 4254 tons. PX production capacity is mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, etc. The marginal PX plants are identified from aspects such as production time, single - set scale, and production process. Old plants (over 20 years in production), small - scale plants (less than 100 tons), and medium - short - process plants (accounting for 17.4% of the total production capacity) are more likely to be marginal plants [20][23][30]. 3.3 PTA Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PTA production capacity was 9171.5 tons, with 836.5 tons having been shut down for more than half a year. PTA production capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Fujian. The marginal PTA plants are mainly those with a production capacity of less than 200 tons and put into production before 2020, with a total capacity of 1295 tons, accounting for 14.1% [34][40][41]. 3.4 PR Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PR production capacity was 2168 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Hainan, and Liaoning. The top four bottle - chip manufacturers account for 78% of the total production capacity. The marginal bottle - chip plants are those that meet one or more of the following conditions: long production time, small plant scale, lack of upstream - downstream matching ability of the group, and high freight costs due to long distances for raw material procurement or product sales. A total of 326 tons of production capacity may be marginal plants, accounting for 15% [44][51][54]. 3.5 PF Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PF production capacity was 968.5 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian. The top four short - fiber manufacturers account for 46% of the total production capacity. Plants with a production time of over 20 years are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Fujian. Small - scale plants (less than 20 tons) are more likely to be marginal plants. The difference in processing costs between new and old plants is not significant, and the survival of old plants depends more on market dynamic balance [55][57][62].
PTA:缺乏基本面支撑,PTA维持区间震荡,MEG:积弱难返,乙二醇偏弱运行
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 06:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks fundamental support and is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply - demand balance sheet may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but low processing fees, increased maintenance plans, and cost - side support will keep it in this pattern [1][6]. - MEG is in a weak state and is expected to run weakly in the short term. Although there is a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low inventory at the main port provides obvious support below [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: Due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, international crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the postponement of the commissioning time of new downstream PTA plants led to a significant decline in PX prices at the end of the session. As of September 19, the closing price of Asian PX was $815.67 per ton CFR China, down $15.66 per ton from September 12 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The restart of two 160 - million - ton PX units of Fujian Fuhai Chuang and the maintenance of a 70 - million - ton unit of Dalian Fujia led to a narrow increase in the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX to 85.51%, a 0.88% increase from the previous week [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 19, the PX - naphtha price spread was $218.9 per ton, down $13.91 per ton from September 12. Due to the lack of improvement in terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, the PX - naphtha price spread continued to decline [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, PTA device operation was stable, but the restart of Fuhai Chuang was postponed. Terminal orders were average during the traditional peak season, and demand was tepid. With low processing fees, some enterprises added maintenance plans, and PTA mainly oscillated at a low level. As of September 19, the spot price of PTA was 4,555 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [24]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased to 77.29%, a 2.34% increase from the previous week. In September, with the planned restart of some units, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [28][31]. - **Processing Fees**: With the upcoming restart of large - scale East China plants, increased domestic supply, and tepid terminal performance during the traditional peak season, PTA processing fees have been weakening. In the short term, although there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low valuation limits the further downward space, and processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In September, with the restart of maintenance units and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Despite the decline in the main port inventory, the market was generally worried about supply - side pressure. Although there were small rebounds during the week, the confidence to chase the rise was insufficient, and the MEG market remained weak at the weekend. As of September 19, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,352 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,470 yuan per ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of MEG was 67.04%, a 0.48% increase from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 0.19%, and that of coal - based MEG increased by 1.56%. In September, with the restart of some domestic units and the end of the maintenance season, the overall MEG output is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the total expected arrival volume of MEG in East China was 88,100 tons. As of September 18, the total MEG inventory in the main East China ports was 383,700 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from September 15 and an increase of 20,500 tons from September 11 [47][49]. - **Profit**: Due to the expected increase in supply and the rise in raw material prices, the profits of all MEG production processes declined this week. As of September 19, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $115.99 per ton, down $13.59 per ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based MEG was - 141.07 yuan per ton, down 87.68 yuan per ton from the previous week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Production**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.89%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. With the restart of some previously maintained units and the planned commissioning of new units next week, domestic polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, polyester production and sales were relatively good, and new plants were commissioned, resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the polyester operating rate. In September, with the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and maintained units, and the expected commissioning of multiple new plants, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [59]. - **Capacity Utilization of Sub - Products**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.54%, a 0.11% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.01%, a 0.19% increase from the previous week; and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 83.31%, a 1.32% increase from the previous week [62]. - **Inventory**: Due to cautious downstream procurement and weak production and sales, factory finished - product inventories increased slightly this week [63]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decrease in polymerization costs, polyester manufacturers focused on sales, and the average weekly price decreased, compressing cash flow. However, the cash flow of DTY was repaired [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 18, the operating load of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.19%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days, a decrease of 0.13 days from the previous week. The current orders are mainly for autumn and winter cold - proof fabrics, and the industry demand has not improved substantially [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: International crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, due to weak terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, PX prices declined significantly at the end of the session [73]. - **Supply Side**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased, and the total capacity utilization rate of MEG also increased slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based units [73]. - **Demand Side**: The overall supply of polyester fluctuated slightly this week, and the operating load and order days of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [73]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply is expected to increase, and the near - term supply - demand remains tight, while the long - term inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The MEG inventory at the main East China ports decreased compared with September 15 but increased compared with September 11 [73].
聚酯周报:原油大幅下跌弱势,芳烃季节性转弱-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - **Gasoline**: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Supply - Side Changes**: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - **Profit Situation**: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - **Market Conditions**: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - **Polyester**: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].
聚酯数据日报-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA prices declined and the basis weakened due to weak crude oil market, concerns about PX unit maintenance delays, and sufficient spot supply. Meanwhile, the decline in prices was beneficial for downstream cost reduction. The domestic PTA production increased as PTA units gradually resumed operation, leading to a rapid decline in the PTA basis and market pressure. The increase in OPEC+ oil production caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. With weaker sales, rising inventories, and the approaching off - season, PTA showed weakness [2]. - The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot market price followed the low - level operation with a slight increase in the basis. The ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the port was expected to continue destocking. However, domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices put continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price [2]. - The overall polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price dropped from 491.8 yuan/barrel on September 18, 2025, to 487.0 yuan/barrel on September 19, 2025, a decrease of 4.80 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1092.0 yuan/ton to 1064.9 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3056 to 1.3009. The PTA主力期价 dropped from 4666 yuan/ton to 4604 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell from 4630 yuan/ton to 4555 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 151.8 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 227.8 yuan/ton to 222.2 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 77 to 82 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 827 to 816, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 218 to 219 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 dropped from 4268 yuan/ton to 4257 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 121.50 yuan/ton to - 120.69 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 4362 to 4351, and the basis decreased from 85 to 80 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 85.57%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 78.25%, the MEG start - up rate increased from 61.32% to 62.20%, and the polyester load remained at 89.00% [2]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F decreased by 25, 65, and 45 respectively. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 43, 3, and 23 respectively. The polyester filament sales rate increased from 40% to 43% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 50, the cash flow increased by 18, and the sales rate decreased from 61% to 51% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 30, the cash flow increased by 38, and the sales rate decreased from 69% to 52% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2].
能源化工期权策略早报:能源化工期权-20250922
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Energy chemical options cover various categories including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and others [3]. - The strategy suggests constructing option - combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - Different energy - chemical option underlying futures have different price, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, crude oil (SC2511) closed at 484, down 8 (-1.55%), with a trading volume of 10.89 million lots and an open interest of 3.38 million lots [4]. 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - PCR indicators for different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.94, down 0.07, and the open - interest PCR is 1.03, down 0.13 [5]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 570, and the support level is 480 [6]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility of different options shows different trends. For example, the flat - strike implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.21%, and the weighted implied volatility is 32.98%, up 0.27% [7]. 3.5. Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1. Energy - Class Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis: OPEC may discuss early release of 1.6 million barrels per day of production cuts, and Russia has its own production - cut plan [8]. - Market analysis: Crude oil has been in a weak and range - bound pattern since July, with short - term weakness in August and September [8]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open - interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a range - bound market, and the pressure and support levels are 570 and 480 respectively [8]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.5.2. Energy - Class Options (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: PDH device maintenance is stable, but profit decline may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization [10]. - Market analysis: LPG has shown an oversold rebound pattern with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the mean, open - interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a range - bound market, and the pressure and support levels are 4800 and 4700 respectively [10]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.3. Alcohol - Class Options (Methanol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory has reached a new high, and enterprise inventory and orders have changed [10]. - Market analysis: Methanol has shown a weak pattern with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has declined and fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak - range - bound market, and the pressure and support levels are 2400 and 2250 respectively [10]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear - spread strategy with put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.4. Alcohol - Class Options (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to be in a low - level shock and then enter a stock - building cycle [11]. - Market analysis: Ethylene glycol has shown a weak pattern with pressure above [11]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating strong short - side power, and the pressure and support levels are 4500 and 4250 respectively [11]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear - spread strategy with put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. 3.5.5. Polyolefin - Class Options - Fundamental analysis: Polyolefin inventory has different changes in production enterprises, traders, and ports, with PP having higher inventory pressure than PE [12]. - Market analysis: Polypropylene has shown a weak pattern with pressure above [12]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has declined to below the mean, open - interest PCR is around 0.80, indicating a weak trend, and the pressure and support levels are 7400 and 6700 respectively [12]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12]. 3.5.6. Rubber Options - Fundamental analysis: Affected by the rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asia and increased overseas supply expectations, the global rubber futures market has declined [13]. - Market analysis: Rubber has shown a weak - range - bound pattern with support below and pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has risen sharply and then dropped to around the mean, open - interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 17000 and 15750 respectively [13]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. 3.5.7. Polyester - Class Options - Fundamental analysis: PTA inventory has increased slightly, but it is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern due to high downstream load and more maintenance in September [14]. - Market analysis: PTA has shown a weak - bearish pattern with pressure above [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, open - interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a range - bound market, and the pressure and support levels are 5000 and 4400 respectively [14]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [14]. 3.5.8. Alkali - Class Options (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental analysis: Caustic soda factory inventory has increased [15]. - Market analysis: Caustic soda has shown a downward - trending pattern with pressure above [15]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a high level, open - interest PCR is below 0.90, indicating a weak - range - bound market, and the pressure and support levels are 3000 and 2440 respectively [15]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [15]. 3.5.9. Alkali - Class Options (Soda Ash) - Fundamental analysis: Soda ash factory inventory has decreased [15]. - Market analysis: Soda ash has shown a low - level range - bound pattern with support below [15]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1300 and 1200 respectively [15]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Not specified; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [15]. 3.5.10. Urea Options - Fundamental analysis: Urea enterprise inventory has increased, and domestic demand is still weak [16]. - Market analysis: Urea has shown a low - level weak - range - bound pattern [16]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open - interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1800 and 1620 respectively [16]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [16].
《能源化工》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:27
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and rebounded on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The alumina price has been falling, squeezing the profit of domestic alumina enterprises and weakening the support for the spot price. In Shandong, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term. [2] - Last week, PVC futures rebounded with the support of a warming macro - environment, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream product operating rate has limited improvement, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize from September to October. [2] Urea Industry - The urea futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 210,000 tons in October. The demand is weak, with a short window for autumn fertilizer procurement, high finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers, and slow follow - up of export orders. Without variables such as increased exports or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the spot price may continue to decline, and the futures will continue to fall significantly only if the spot price breaks below 1,550 yuan/ton. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain high as some plants restart or postpone maintenance. The demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, some secondary - downstream inventories are high, and styrene plants plan to reduce production in September - October. The price driving force is weak. [10] - The situation of styrene is similar to that of pure benzene. The supply - demand is expected to be loose in September, and the price driving force is weak. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has increased significantly due to delayed maintenance of some domestic plants, while the demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants postpone commissioning, and many PTA plants plan to have maintenance. The PXN may be compressed in the fourth quarter, and the price driving force is weak. [14] - For PTA, the supply is expected to shrink, but the demand increase is limited, and the basis is not strongly supported. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. [14] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term supply - demand is turning weak. Although the inventory is expected to decrease in September, the terminal market is weak. In the long - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new plant commissioning and seasonal demand decline. [14] - For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price is supported at the low level but lacks upward driving force. [14] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand is still loose. Although the price and processing fees are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, the processing fee has limited upward space. [14][15] Polyolefin Industry - PP production has decreased recently due to losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week, and there are more import offers from North America. The 01 contract has a large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward space. [20] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is trading high - inventory and fast loading in Iran. The coastal inventory has reached a record high, the market sentiment has worsened, and the price and basis have weakened slightly. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and although there is some unplanned maintenance recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September, and the inventory pattern in the inland is relatively healthy. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The port is still receiving a large amount of goods, with significant inventory accumulation and weak trading. The overall valuation is neutral. The futures are oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. [45] Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices were weakly oscillating. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market has refocused on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has eased concerns about secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, reducing the geopolitical risk support for oil prices. The expectation of future supply surplus, combined with the refinery maintenance season and the unexpected increase in US distillate inventory, has put pressure on oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are under pressure. [49] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase. [2] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - From September 11 to September 18, the FOB price at East - China ports increased by 5 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% increase, and the export profit increased by 217.6 yuan/ton, with a 3723.4% increase. The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the CFR price in India decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, with a 3.3% decrease. [2] Supply - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 85.4%, and the operating rate of PVC decreased by 4 percentage points to 75.4%. [2] Demand - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 83.7%, and the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88.2%. [2] Inventory - From September 11 to September 18, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 0.7 tons, with a 7.5% increase, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, with a 1.2% decrease. [2] Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 17, compared with September 16, the 01 - contract price of urea decreased by 5 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the 05 - contract price decreased by 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.17% decrease. [5] Upstream Raw Materials - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of动力煤 at the pithead in Yijinhuoluo Banner increased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 2.14% increase, and the price of动力煤 at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.87% increase. [5] Spot Market Prices - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of small - particle urea in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.56% increase, and the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.65% decrease. [5] Supply - Demand - On September 19, compared with September 18, the domestic daily urea output decreased by 0.02 tons, with a 0.11% decrease. From September 12 to September 19, the domestic weekly urea inventory increased by 32,600 tons, with a 2.88% increase, and the order days of domestic urea production enterprises decreased by 0.7 days, with a 10.17% decrease. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 6 US dollars/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [10] Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of styrene in East - China spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a 1.4% decrease, and the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, with a 66.7% decrease. [10] Downstream Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the cash flow of phenol increased by 28 yuan/ton, with an 8.6% increase, and the cash flow of aniline increased by 93 yuan/ton, with a 29.8% increase. [10] Inventory - From September 8 to September 15, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons, with a 6.9% decrease, and the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons, with a 9.9% decrease. [10] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 78.4%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 73.4%. [10] Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% decrease. [14] Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of POY150/48 decreased by 65 yuan/ton, with a 0.9% decrease, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 45 yuan/ton, with a 0.7% decrease. [14] PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4 US dollars/ton, with a 3.9% decrease, and the PX - MX spread increased by 2 US dollars/ton, with a 1.4% increase. [14] PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PTA East - China spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase, and the TA01 - TA05 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [14] MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MEG East - China spot price decreased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the MEG basis (01) decreased by 62 yuan/ton, with a 3.2% decrease. [14] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the PX operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.3%, and the PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.8%. [14] Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the L2601 closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton, with a 180% increase. [20] Spot Market Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of East - China PP raffia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% decrease, and the price of North - China LLDPE film decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% decrease. [20] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the PE enterprise inventory increased by 23,800 tons, with a 5.57% increase, and the PP enterprise inventory increased by 43,400 tons, with an 8.06% increase. [20] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the PE device operating rate increased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.4%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.93 percentage points to 74.9%. [20] Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MA2601 closing price increased by 15 yuan/ton, with a 0.64% increase, and the MA91 spread decreased by 28 yuan/ton, with a 215.38% decrease. [45] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.21%, with a 0.61% decrease, and the methanol port inventory increased by 7,400 tons, with a 0.48% increase. [45] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.22 percentage points to 68%, and the downstream external - MTO device operating rate increased by 6.02 percentage points to 75.08%. [45] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the Brent price increased by 0.17 US dollars/barrel, with a 0.25% increase, and the SC price decreased by 6.3 yuan/barrel, with a 1.27% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the price of NYM RBOB increased by 0.56 cents/gallon, with a 0.28% increase, and the price of ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.75 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Crack Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the US gasoline crack spread decreased by 1 US dollars/barrel, with a 4.73% decrease, and the European gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.48 US dollars/barrel, with a 2.44% decrease. [49]