融 研 究 院 聚酯：淡季中的强预期 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 业 金 期 货 弘 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 融 研 究 院 l 在强预期及资金涌入的带动下，聚酯产业链最近行情火爆。基于预期的好转和供需面的良好，PTA市场表现较为强势，PX的强势支撑和PTA 低开工、聚酯市场降负的缓慢共振。PTA价格在上涨的同时，也带动现货加工费和盘面加工费的纷纷走高。其中现货加工费提升至460元/吨 附近，环比25年末的300元不到的加工费大幅抬升。目前来看PTA市场负荷仍不高，季节性累库幅度不大。不过随着终端降负的加快，2月中 上旬聚酯也将迎来负荷低点，PTA若继续持续拉升或透支未来需求，后期市场或偏强震荡为主，但幅度料有限。 弘 业 期 货 金 l 乙二醇市场作为聚酯产业链中最弱的品种，在供需远期压力下持续走低。上周后半周沙特、科威特及美国等多装置检修停车，海外供应收 窄预期下，资金对于低估值的乙二醇产生做多意愿。国内卫星石化计划2月中转产 ...

| | | | | 聚酯致据口报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2026/1/28 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/27 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 457. 3 | 446. 7 | -10. 60 | 成交情况: PTA:原油行情偏弱震荡,且下游聚酯工厂减产中, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 2114.8 | 2011. 8 | -102. 97 | PTA积累库存,PTA行情下跌,现货基差微幅下跌。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 6364 | 1. 6197 | -0. 0166 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 930 | 903 | -27 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 365 | 330 | -35 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 5438 | 5258 | -180.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has officially added new futures and options for paraxylene (PX), bottle chips, short fibers, and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, marking a significant step towards the internationalization of the polyester sector in China [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development - The polyester industry in China has maintained its position as the world's largest, with a complete industrial chain system [1] - The market structure of the polyester sector includes a diverse range of participants across production, trade, and processing, with hundreds of related enterprises [1] - The demand for cross-border pricing and hedging tools has significantly increased due to intensified price fluctuations and the need for risk management in cross-border transactions [1] Group 2: Market Integration and Internationalization - The introduction of PTA futures in 2018 has provided valuable experience for the overall internationalization of the polyester sector, allowing foreign PX traders to reference domestic futures prices [2] - Nearly 800 foreign clients from 33 countries and regions have opened accounts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and partnerships have been established with 12 foreign exchanges to facilitate internationalization [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to continue market cultivation and investor education to ensure the smooth and stable operation of the internationalized polyester sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the PTA futures market saw a significant increase. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,452 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton or 8.57%. The rise was due to the capital market's optimism about the chemical industry, and positive fund inflows in PX and PTA supported by their fundamentals [2]. - The current rally in PTA and PX during the off - season of the polyester industry is an early reaction to the expected strong supply - demand situation of PX and PTA in the first half of next year. Although PTA is expected to accumulate inventory before the Spring Festival, the pressure is lower than in previous years. Attention should be paid to unexpected shutdowns [2]. - Currently, the PXN spread is oscillating strongly, and PTA processing fees have significantly recovered. The upstream of the industrial chain has a relatively high valuation, and the market's expected pricing is already reflected. Cost - side attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy based on cost, and be cautious when chasing high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - PTA futures prices rose significantly this week. The TA2605 contract closed at 5,452 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton or 8.57%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined steadily, some polyester enterprises started maintenance, but PTA factories also controlled production, and social inventory continued to decline [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,400.00 | 5,018.00 | 382.00 | 7.61% | Daily | | PTA production | 10,000 tons | 139.28 | 145.25 | - 5.97 | - 4.11% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 85.52 | 89.25 | - 3.73 | - 4.18% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 51.20 | 54.59 | - 3.39 | - 6.21% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 357 | 339 | 18.00 | 5.31% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | yuan/ton | 5,120 | 4,958 | 162.00 | 3.27% | Daily | [4] Market and Supply - Demand Analysis - **PX Market**: The report includes PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX supply situation analysis, including prices, production, imports, operating rates, and inventory [6][10][15]. - **PTA Market**: It covers PTA futures closing prices, East China mainstream prices, PTA supply analysis (production, operating rate, social inventory), consumption analysis (exports, downstream product production and operating rates), and cost - profit analysis [18][20][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is strong, leading the rise of chemical products. With the inflow of large - scale funds into the chemical sector, polyester leads the entire chemical sector under the "cycle reversal" narrative. The supply - side drive is expected to be mainly strong, and the unilateral trading strategy is to be bullish [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market strength drives chemical product prices up, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing PTA plants maintain high loads. PTA processing fees have rebounded to 500 yuan, and the PX - naphtha spread remains above 350 dollars [4]. - **Demand**: Domestic polyester demand has declined. Although polyester factory production cuts have a certain negative feedback on PTA, the impact is limited, and PTA consumption remains high with rapidly expanding processing fees [4]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis [4]. - **Basis**: PTA profits have expanded significantly, and PX maintains high profits [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches 350 dollars, and PTA processing fees have expanded to around 500 yuan [4]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices have significantly rebounded to above 5,300 yuan. The profit of reforming units has recovered, and overseas PX plants have increased their loads due to profit expansion [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Neutral, mainly related to international diplomatic events without direct impact on the market [4]. - **Investment view**: Bullish, mainly driven by the supply side [4]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Bullish. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Part Two: Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Global situation**: The global aromatic hydrocarbon market is strengthening due to geopolitical risks in Iran. RBOB gasoline prices are rising, and the spread between high - octane components and reformate has narrowed, indicating that blending demand has not increased synchronously. US refinery operating rates have risen to 95%, and supply remains high. Ebob gasoline prices have risen due to Middle East tensions, and some refineries may restart soon. Overall, market sentiment is dominated by geopolitical premiums, and the fundamentals have not tightened substantially [31]. - **US gasoline situation**: US gasoline is gradually building inventories. Refineries are operating at high loads, and gasoline cracking profits are weakening [9][15] 3.3 Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply situation**: Crude oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical risks, driving up naphtha prices. Although refining profits are still negative, reformate supply remains tight. Domestic refinery operating rates are low, and independent refineries partially fill the gap. Some key units are under maintenance or postponed restart, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to shut down a reforming unit in January, suppressing aromatic hydrocarbon output. Asian reformate markets remain firm under the dual support of "strong blending demand + limited aromatic hydrocarbon supply" but are constrained by weak refining profits and structural surplus expectations [44]. - **PX situation**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [56][64]. - **PTA situation**: Due to large domestic PTA production capacity, the PTA processing range has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new plants and capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly used in the market [56][64]. - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip situation**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity launch cycle. Since domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the route [56][64]. - **Mixed xylene situation**: Overseas mixed xylene prices are rising due to energy price rebounds and geopolitical risks. North American mixed xylene markets lack spot transactions, indicating weak demand. European markets are in a tight state, and PX is still the main application direction. Asian mixed xylene prices have risen slightly, and the PX - mixed xylene spread remains at a high level of 150 dollars. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is mainly from the PX industry. In the short term, mixed xylene prices may remain strong [57][65]. - **Aromatic hydrocarbon blending spread situation**: Aromatic hydrocarbon blending spreads have shrunk [66]. - **Reform profit situation**: PX market strength drives the rise of chemical products, and funds flow into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and PX - naphtha spreads continue to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatic hydrocarbon extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and domestic demand has declined, with limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts [74] 3.4 Part Four: Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol situation**: Overseas ethylene glycol prices have rebounded after a long - term slump. Reduced ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East have boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is operating at about 80% capacity, and one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines plans to switch to polyethylene production in mid - February. Supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [86]. - **Gasoline situation**: Asian gasoline profits are strong, and the market is waiting for domestic gasoline exports [87]. - **Polyester situation**: Funds are flowing into the chemical sector, and polyester leads the chemical industry. Upstream industrial chain profits are expanding [93][100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the inclusion of specific futures and options related to the polyester industry for foreign traders, aiming to enhance risk management and internationalization of the polyester sector [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The CSRC has determined that the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) will allow foreign participation in futures and options for paraxylene (PX), bottle chips, short fibers, and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) [1]. - The ZCE has been gradually opening up the polyester sector, with PTA futures being the first chemical futures introduced to foreign traders since 2018, which has stabilized market operations and established PTA prices as a global reference for polyester trade [2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - China's polyester industry is the largest globally, with a projected capacity of 89.035 million tons by 2025, accounting for 60% to 70% of global production [1]. - The demand for diversified risk management strategies has increased due to price volatility in polyester products and accelerated overseas capacity expansion [1]. Group 3: Market Participation and Internationalization - Nearly 800 foreign clients from 33 countries and regions have opened accounts at the ZCE, and the exchange has signed memorandums of understanding with 12 foreign exchanges to facilitate the internationalization of the polyester sector [3]. - The internationalization of the polyester sector is expected to enhance the pricing mechanism and reduce harmful competition among domestic enterprises in international trade [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the inclusion of several futures and options products related to the polyester industry for foreign traders, aiming to enhance the internationalization of the polyester sector and improve risk management for domestic enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The CSRC has added futures and options for paraxylene (PX), bottle chips, short fibers, and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) to the list of specific products for foreign traders [1]. - The CSRC will supervise the relevant futures exchanges to ensure a smooth introduction of these products for foreign participation [1]. Group 2: Industry Context - China's polyester industry is the largest in the world, with a projected capacity of 89.035 million tons by 2025, accounting for approximately 60% to 70% of global capacity [1]. - The global polyester fiber production is expected to reach 71 million tons by 2025, with China holding over 70% of the market share [1]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The polyester sector has experienced increased price volatility due to global supply chain restructuring, leading to heightened demand for diversified risk management solutions such as cross-border pricing and hedging [1]. - The PTA futures market has been operational since 2018, with over 90% of PTA production and 70% of polyester enterprises participating, establishing PTA prices as a key reference for global polyester trade [2]. Group 4: Internationalization Efforts - The internationalization of the polyester sector is seen as a crucial part of the high-level opening of the futures market, enhancing the pricing efficiency and competitiveness of China's polyester industry on a global scale [2][3]. - Nearly 800 foreign clients from 33 countries have opened accounts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), and the ZCE has signed cooperation memorandums with 12 foreign exchanges to facilitate the internationalization of the polyester sector [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is in a weak supply - demand situation with continuous inventory accumulation expected in 2026. Attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7][8]. - For asphalt, demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of Venezuelan raw materials which may be the main support [31]. - PTA is expected to rise first and then fall with a downward - shifted price center, while ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure for shock consolidation [56]. - The polyolefin market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to structural short - selling opportunities [74]. - Pulp maintains a wide - range shock trend with pressure on the upside and support on the downside [110]. - The soda ash market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and is likely to continue a weak operation in the long - term, with short - term shock operation expected [153]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Weather speculation has ended, and the market is in shock. Supply - demand is weak, and attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Three major institutions' January reports show a pessimistic outlook for 2026, with continuous inventory accumulation. US refinery data is also bearish [8]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak, and Venezuelan situation drives the price up. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak [30]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Crude oil supply - demand is weak. Spot prices in some areas change slightly, and the average domestic price drops slightly. Supply and profit change, and demand is weak with inventory changes [32][33][34]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: PTA first falls and then rises, and is expected to rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol first suppresses and then rises, and is expected to be under pressure [55][56]. - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption demand weakens. PTA supply is stable, and the price may rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol has a trend of inventory accumulation and is expected to be under pressure [57][58][60]. Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Futures prices first fall and then rise. The market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [73][74]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Polypropylene and polyethylene production increase. Production profits vary. Inventory shows a differentiated structure, and downstream start - up levels have different performances [75][79][84]. Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp contract price rises slightly, and the spot price is weak. It maintains a wide - range shock [109][110]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Pulp shipping volume, import volume, inventory, and downstream market have different changes [111][117][131]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price first falls and then rebounds, with a stable price center. Supply pressure is high, demand shrinks, and inventory decreases. It is expected to be in shock in the short - term and weak in the long - term [146][153]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, inventory decreases but the core contradiction remains, spot prices are stable, and downstream demand has different impacts [154][164][173].