Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to factors such as high gasoline profit rates and low pure benzene prices, which limit PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. The downstream weaving industry shows good performance, and export demand may improve [3]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly by 120,000 tons. Ethylene prices cannot support the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. New device commissions put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The cost support from rising coal prices is weak, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The reduction of tariffs after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - INE crude oil price increased from 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, to 457.4 yuan/barrel on November 14, 2025, with a change of 7.9 yuan [3]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1433.4 yuan/ton to 1376.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 57.41 yuan; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4388 to 1.4140, a change of - 0.0249 [3]. - CFR China PX increased from 826 to 832, a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 242 to 263, a change of 21 [3]. - PTA spot price increased from 4565 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan/ton, a change of 70 yuan; spot processing fee increased from 145.9 yuan/ton to 186.3 yuan/ton, a change of 40.4 yuan; the disk processing fee decreased from 280.9 yuan/ton to 251.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.6 yuan [3]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3892 yuan/ton to 3922 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan; MEG - naphtha increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 144 yuan/ton, a change of 3 yuan; MEG内盘 increased from 3941 yuan/ton to 3980 yuan/ton, a change of 39 yuan [3]. - PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 88.03%, 76.84%, and 64.20% respectively; polyester负荷 decreased from 89.07% to 88.69%, a change of - 0.38% [3]. - Among polyester products, POY150D/48F and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged, FDY150D/96F increased by 30 yuan, 1.4D直纺涤短 increased by 60 yuan, and semi - light切片 increased by 35 yuan [3]. - The cash flows of POY, DTY, and涤短 decreased by 73, 73, and 13 respectively, and FDY现金流 decreased by 43 [3]. - The production and sales rates of long - staple fiber increased by 2%, and those of short - staple fiber increased by 9%, while the production and sales rate of polyester切片 decreased by 17% [3]. Device Maintenance Information - The restart time of a 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has been postponed, and the specific restart plan is unknown [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", expected to be mainly on the strong side, and the trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PX supply is tight and polyester exports may increase. The PX market price rebounds due to multiple factors, but production is limited by high gasoline profit margins and low benzene prices. Polyester downstream load remains at about 90%, and the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic. The PTA port inventory is accumulating, the PTA basis is weak, and the profit is at a low level. The PTA price is at a neutral - low position, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact. Overall, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market price rebounds. Although some planned maintenance has ended and production capacity is gradually recovering, PX output is still limited. Gasoline profit surge and low benzene price lead to reduced raw material input in aromatic hydrocarbon devices and lower load of reforming and STDP devices, restricting PX supply. PTA device maintenance increases slightly [4] - **Demand**: Polyester downstream load maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving performance is good recently [4] - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory accumulates 160,000 tons this week, and the market is continuously accumulating inventory [4] - **Basis**: PTA basis continues to be weak, and PTA profit remains at a low level [4] - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of about 200 [4] - **Valuation**: PTA price is at a neutral - low position. With the decline of reforming device profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4] - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events such as the attack in the Black Sea port have a neutral impact [4] - **Investment view**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly on the strong side; trading strategy: unilateral position, wait and see [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude oil**: On November 12, OPEC changed its estimate of the global oil market from deficit to surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased OPEC supply. The OPEC + alliance may pause further production increases in Q1 2026. Geopolitical events such as the so - called "drug - busting" action of the US against Venezuela also affect the market [8] - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventory is continuously decreasing. Gasoline cracking profit strengthens, increasing blending demand. The North American refinery start - up rate drops to 86.6%, crude oil inventory decreases by 6.9 million barrels, and imports also decline significantly. The low US gasoline inventory supports the aromatic hydrocarbon market, and high - octane aromatic hydrocarbon prices are strong. European refineries face challenges, and Ebob gasoline prices rise [25] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: PX supply contracts, waiting for the annual contract negotiation results. Asian naphtha price strengthens but cracking profit is under pressure. South Korea reduces reforming device load due to declining aromatic hydrocarbon profit. Some Southeast Asian devices are under maintenance, promoting the expansion of Asian gasoline profit [44] - **Arbitrage space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons is opened, and physical goods circulation is in progress. The US - Asia spread of mixed xylene is about $257, theoretically supporting arbitrage imports [49] - **Profit situation**: Selective disproportionation profit declines, and reforming device maintenance increases. Pure benzene price rebounds slightly but still suppresses disproportionation profit. Gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profits both recover [45][55] - **PX situation**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PX market price rebounds, but production is limited. China's PTA production is close to a historical high, supporting PX consumption [55] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: East China ethylene glycol port inventory increases significantly. With new device commissioning, supply pressure increases. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit recovers. Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand [78] - **Polyester**: Polyester maintains a high load, and weaving load is optimistic. Export demand may boost the market. Under the background of tight PX supply and stable polyester start - up, polyester exports are expected to increase due to favorable overseas export policies and improved Sino - US trade relations [65][88]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has shown strong performance recently, driven by a combination of macroeconomic recovery, stable cost support, and robust fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the polyester industry chain since late October is attributed to stable cost support, particularly from international oil prices and coordinated production cuts by leading PTA companies [1] - The PX segment has been particularly strong due to tight supply expectations, with new capacity not expected until Q3 2026 [1] - Geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Nigeria have provided upward momentum for crude oil prices, which continues to affect the polyester industry chain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Improved supply and demand dynamics, along with a recovery in terminal orders and easing US-China trade relations, have heightened expectations for an increase in foreign trade orders by year-end [1] - The PTA price rebound is supported by increased maintenance of PTA facilities, which delays supply pressure, and favorable export conditions due to India's cancellation of BIS certification for polyester products [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Despite PTA futures nearing September highs, concerns about price declines are limited, with a low probability of significant downward movement in polyester chain prices [3] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of "cost support, improved expectations, and differentiated fundamentals," with short-term strong fluctuations expected to continue [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Future price increases in the polyester industry chain will largely depend on cost factors and whether domestic and foreign orders improve beyond expectations [4] - Analysts express differing views on the market outlook, with some expecting a strong performance driven by long-term fundamentals, while others caution about potential downward risks from declining downstream orders [4][5]

Group 1: Trump's Bond Purchases - Donald Trump has continued to purchase municipal and corporate bonds, with at least $82 million in bonds acquired this fall [1] - The corporate bonds purchased include those from companies like Netflix, UnitedHealth Group, Boeing, Meta, Home Depot, and Broadcom, as well as bonds issued by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley [1] - The purchases were disclosed by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics after the government shutdown ended [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped below 50%, currently at 44.4% [2] - Analysts note increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, adding uncertainty to the upcoming December meeting [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have decreased from 70% to 42%, influenced more by voting tendencies within the FOMC than by economic data [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market Trends - Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop, falling from around $100,000 to below $93,000, marking a 2.18% decrease [4] - Over 150,000 traders have been liquidated in the cryptocurrency market within the past 24 hours [5] - The market is under pressure from significant selling and corporate hedging demands, with a rising correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets [6] Group 4: Polyester Industry Performance - The polyester industry chain has shown strong performance, driven by macroeconomic recovery, stable cost support, and robust fundamentals [7] - Key factors include stable international oil prices and coordinated production cuts by leading PTA companies, which have improved industry sentiment [7] - The demand for polyester products is expected to remain strong, with a focus on export growth as domestic orders decline [9] Group 5: Future Outlook for Polyester Industry - Analysts emphasize that future price increases in the polyester industry will depend on cost factors and improvements in domestic and foreign trade orders [10] - Current market conditions suggest limited downside risk for polyester prices, with expectations of a valuation recovery in the coming year [10] - The supply-demand balance is expected to tighten, particularly with no new upstream capacity for PX, supporting price increases [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government's sudden withdrawal of BIS certification for 14 chemical products, including PTA and PVC, is expected to significantly impact the polyester and PVC industries, potentially reviving export growth and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - On November 12, 2025, the Indian Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) announced the immediate cancellation of BIS certification for PTA, MEG, PSF, FDY, POY, and PVC homopolymer, which had been in place for nearly two years [1][2]. - The BIS certification process for PVC has undergone multiple delays, with the original certification requirements announced on February 26, 2024, and subsequently postponed several times until the final cancellation in November 2025 [2]. Group 2: Export Impact - The implementation of BIS certification had a drastic negative effect on PTA exports from China to India, plummeting from 960,000 tons in 2022 to 380,000 tons in 2024, representing a decline from 28% to 8% of total PTA exports [3]. - Polyester exports, particularly for PTA and polyester filament yarn, were significantly affected, with monthly exports of polyester filament yarn dropping from over 70,000 tons in September 2023 to approximately 160,000 tons for the entire year of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the challenges in the Indian market, other Asian countries have shown increased demand, with China's total polyester exports reaching 10.23 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.3% [4]. - The cancellation of BIS certification is expected to eliminate key barriers to entry for Chinese polyester products, potentially reversing the decline in PTA exports and providing support to the domestic polyester industry facing oversupply pressures [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that while the immediate impact of the BIS certification cancellation is positive, the long-term growth of polyester exports will still depend on overall demand in the Indian market and competition from overseas suppliers [6]. - For PVC, the cancellation is seen as a stabilizing factor for exports to India, although there may be a temporary decline in export volumes due to previous "export rush" phenomena and seasonal factors [6][7].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the decline in crude oil weakens the cost support for PTA, the news of India's BIS cancellation is positive for future PTA exports, partially offsetting the impact of the crude oil decline, resulting in a limited decline in PTA spot prices [2] - The PX market has shown a rebound trend recently. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited, driven by the soaring gasoline profit rate and the low price of pure benzene [2] - The supply side of PTA has slightly shrunk, polyester production remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol at ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, and the ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the tightness of spot goods due to low inventory is mainly reflected through the basis [2] - The coal price has risen, but it does not provide stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The conclusion of the Sino - US trade negotiation and the tariff reduction may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The price of INE crude oil dropped from 466.2 yuan/barrel on November 12, 2025, to 449.5 yuan/barrel on November 13, 2025, a decrease of 16.7 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 151.36 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0604, the PTA主力期价 rose by 30 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 dropped by 25 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee decreased by 27.3 yuan/ton, the disk processing fee increased by 22.7 yuan/ton, the PTA仓单数量 increased by 5296, and the主力 basis remained unchanged [2] - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, the MEG内盘 dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 6 yuan/ton [2] - **PX**: The CFR China PX price rose by 1, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6 [2] - **Polyester Products**: The POY150D/48F price dropped by 10 yuan/ton, the POY现金流 increased by 18 yuan/ton, the FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, the FDY现金流 increased by 28 yuan/ton, the DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, the DTY现金流 increased by 28 yuan/ton, the long - filament sales rate increased by 1%, the 1.4D直纺涤短 price dropped by 55 yuan/ton, the涤短现金流 decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the short - fiber sales rate increased by 14%, the semi - bright slice price dropped by 15 yuan/ton, the slice现金流 increased by 13 yuan/ton, and the slice sales rate remained unchanged [2] 2. Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 88.03%, the PTA operating rate increased by 0.53% to 76.84%, the MEG operating rate increased by 0.10% to 64.20%, and the polyester load remained at 89.07% [2] 3. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price will continue to fluctuate. The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [1]. - The prices of fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to be bearish, with Asian low - sulfur market facing supply and demand dilemmas and high - sulfur market supported by stable demand but with sufficient supply [1][3]. - The asphalt price is temporarily viewed bearishly due to abundant market resources, weak downstream demand, and supply decline being less than demand decline [3]. - PX&TA are expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to be under pressure with high supply and limited demand growth [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to increased supply and weak overseas demand [5]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with potential supply changes due to Iranian device conditions and port inventory trends [5][6]. - The polyolefin price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with a shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation but with valuation - related factors limiting further decline [6]. - The PVC price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with high - level supply, weak domestic demand, and potential export - market changes [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose 0.2 dollars to 58.69 dollars/barrel (0.34% increase), Brent 1 - month contract rose 0.3 dollars to 63.01 dollars/barrel (0.48% increase), and SC2512 fell 2.8 yuan/barrel to 451.6 yuan/barrel (0.62% decrease). US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels as of November 7, higher than the market expectation. The IEA predicts a large - scale surplus in the global oil market next year [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 fell 3.71% to 2595 yuan/ton, LU2601 fell 4.41% to 3164 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Asian low - sulfur market has supply and demand issues, while high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In November, production and consumption both declined, with supply decline less than demand [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.64% to 4700 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 0.03% to 3892 yuan/ton, and PX601 rose 0.92% to 6836 yuan/ton. Some glycol devices are under maintenance. PX&TA are expected to follow the cost side, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 170 yuan/ton to 15390 yuan/ton, NR rose 220 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR rose 50 yuan/ton to 10480 yuan/ton. Rubber supply increased, and overseas demand weakened [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a high level, and Iranian devices may stop in November - December, leading to a potential decline in January arrivals. Port inventory is expected to start de - stocking from mid - December to early January [5][6]. - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a downward trend in profit. It is expected to shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, but valuation factors may limit further decline [6]. - **PVC**: The price oscillated on Thursday. Supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the cancellation of BIS certification may boost exports, but anti - dumping needs attention [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 14, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA report shows that last week, US crude inventory increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of November 7, US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels, and Cushing crude inventory decreased by 346,000 barrels [12]. - The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year, which is equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand and much higher than other forecasts [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 29 figures showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 figures showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][34][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 15 figures showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 10 figures showing the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 2 figures showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [71][72][73]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gasoline supply contraction leads to profit expansion, indirectly supporting the price of PX. Sanctions on Russia cause tight supply at the crude oil end, widening the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees are compressed to below 200. Despite the end of the peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), export demand may improve due to the easing of the China-US trade war. Downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November. The impact of potential tariff cuts on domestic exports needs attention [2]. - The inventory of East China's ethylene glycol ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The price of ethylene is unable to support the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices, and new plant startups continue to put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The tightness of spot supply due to low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. Although coal prices have risen, they do not provide strong cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal-based ethylene glycol has been restored. The China-US trade negotiation has reached an agreement, and tariff cuts may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: The PTA spot price decreased from 4,600 yuan/ton to 4,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA main futures price increased from 4,648 yuan/ton to 4,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 192.6 yuan/ton to 173.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.3 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at -77. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 93,560 to 98,450, an increase of 4,890 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price increased from 3,875 yuan/ton to 3,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3,981 yuan/ton to 3,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 68 to 66, a decrease of 2 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price increased from 821 to 825, an increase of 4. The PX-naphtha spread increased from 239 to 248, an increase of 10 [2]. Industry Chain Start - Up Conditions - The PX startup rate remained unchanged at 88.03%. The PTA startup rate remained unchanged at 76.31%. The MEG startup rate increased from 63.74% to 64.10%, an increase of 0.36%. The polyester load decreased from 89.70% to 89.07%, a decrease of 0.63% [2]. Product Sales - **Polyester Filament**: The POY 150D/48F price decreased from 6,600 to 6,580, a decrease of 20. The POY cash flow decreased from 83 to 79, a decrease of 4. The FDY 150D/96F price decreased from 6,805 to 6,795, a decrease of 10. The FDY cash flow increased from -212 to -206, an increase of 6. The DTY 150D/48F price increased from 7,860 to 7,865, an increase of 5. The DTY cash flow increased from 143 to 164, an increase of 21. The filament sales rate decreased from 54% to 43%, a decrease of 11 percentage points [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6,365 to 6,385, an increase of 20. The staple fiber cash flow increased from 198 to 234, an increase of 36. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 41% to 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased from 5,595 to 5,575, a decrease of 20. The chip cash flow decreased from -22 to -26, a decrease of 4. The chip sales rate increased from 51% to 57%, an increase of 6 percentage points [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time needs further tracking [2].