Group 1 - The current index level is not as critical as the underlying quality of the market, with structural opportunities still present despite short-term fears in the technology sector [1] - The overall growth is entering a recovery phase, with improvements in net profit margins across various sectors, particularly in emerging technologies and cyclical industries [2] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with a potential shift in investment styles as the year-end approaches [4] Group 2 - The focus is shifting towards internal structural optimization following the completion of the third-quarter reports, with an emphasis on sectors like AI and export-related industries [6] - The technology sector remains a key investment theme, although short-term volatility may increase due to adjustments in fund allocations [8] - The outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium to long term, supported by stable policies and a recovering economic environment [9]

Group 1 - The current index level is not as critical as the underlying quality of the market, with structural opportunities still present despite short-term fears in the technology sector [1] - The overall growth is entering a recovery phase, with improvements in net profit margins across various sectors, indicating a broadening of growth opportunities [2] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with a potential shift in investment styles as the year-end approaches [4] Group 2 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have alleviated external uncertainties, contributing to a positive outlook for the A-share market [5] - The focus is shifting towards internal structural optimization, with an emphasis on sectors like AI and emerging technologies for medium-term growth [6] - The market is likely to see increased volatility in the technology sector due to high allocation levels and potential style shifts [11] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain a bullish trend, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment and ongoing policy support [10] - There is a notable concentration of fund holdings in technology and growth sectors, indicating strong investor interest despite potential risks [8] - The recovery in profitability is expected to solidify the bull market, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors for future growth [10]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.10% and 1.56% respectively [1][3] - The market experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high, before undergoing adjustments [1][3] Sector Performance - The cyclical sectors, including coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals, performed strongly with monthly gains of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% respectively [3] - Conversely, the media, beauty care, and automotive sectors faced notable declines [3] Trading Activity - October saw a robust trading environment with total transaction volume exceeding 36 trillion yuan, and 10 trading days recorded over 2 trillion yuan in turnover [3] - Margin trading showed optimistic sentiment, with the margin balance reaching 24,990.86 billion yuan, an increase of 1,027.90 billion yuan in October [3] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing output in October grew by 5.4% year-on-year, while the service sector production index increased by 6.3%, the highest growth rate this year [9] - Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and retail sales all showed accelerated growth [9] Policy and Market Outlook - The upcoming November is expected to witness a concentration of policy effects and verification of fourth-quarter earnings, with a potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions [7][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, which is anticipated to guide investment directions in November [7][11] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest an overweight position in sectors such as machinery, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and non-ferrous metals for November [13] - The focus on innovation and technology is expected to drive growth in the economy, with high-dividend consumer stocks also being highlighted as worthy of attention [13][15]

Group 1 - The current market index is at a similar level to 2015, but with significantly better quality and lower valuation, indicating that there is no need to overly focus on the index points themselves [1] - Structural opportunities still exist in various sectors such as new energy, chemicals, consumer electronics, resources, and machinery, despite short-term investor caution primarily in the technology sector [1] - The focus for the remainder of the year should be on structural adjustments, with recommendations to invest in traditional manufacturing upgrades, Chinese companies going abroad, and edge AI [1] Group 2 - The overall growth is entering a recovery cycle, with improvements in net profit margins across various sectors due to accelerated overseas expansion and the implementation of anti-involution measures [2] - The performance of large and mid-cap stocks, which are closely related to the overall economy, shows greater earnings elasticity, indicating a positive trend in China's asset growth [2] - Certain sectors, including emerging technology and cyclical industries, are in a recovery and expansion phase, while others face excess supply pressures [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to experience a period of horizontal adjustment due to the exhaustion of previous upward momentum and the upcoming policy vacuum [4] - The electronic industry and innovation sectors have seen record high allocations in fund reports, suggesting potential structural adjustments in the market [4] - Key investment areas include coal, oil and gas, new energy, non-bank financials, public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The market trend remains positive, supported by macro policies and resilient fundamentals from third-quarter earnings reports [5] - Technology companies with real technological barriers and those aligned with national strategies are expected to be key investment themes [5] - The construction of projects is anticipated to enhance the industrial chain, benefiting companies through increased orders and performance releases [5] Group 5 - The focus is shifting from macro risks to internal structural optimization following the completion of the third-quarter reports and the resolution of U.S.-China trade discussions [6] - The AI sector remains a mid-term industry focus, with potential for rotation within growth sectors [6] - Attention is drawn to industries such as non-ferrous metals, AI applications, power storage, and emerging themes like controlled nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace [6] Group 6 - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations and adjustments, with a long-term optimistic outlook due to stable internal and external policies [7] - The new profit growth cycle has begun, with a focus on low-base sectors that may release greater elasticity next year [7] - The technology sector's high allocation in institutional portfolios indicates a need to monitor performance and potential shifts in investment strategies [7] Group 7 - The market is undergoing a rebalancing phase, with a high concentration of active equity fund holdings in the TMT sector, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [8] - There is a growing skepticism towards capital expenditure expansion in overseas markets, while domestic industries are expected to benefit from improved operational conditions [8] - Attention is recommended for upstream resources and sectors benefiting from domestic price stabilization and economic recovery [8] Group 8 - The technology growth sector is experiencing a slowdown in short-term over-allocation, leading to increased volatility [9] - The TMT sector's allocation by funds has reached historical highs, indicating a strong focus on technology growth as a primary market driver [10] - The potential for further increases in fund allocations to the TMT sector suggests ongoing interest and investment opportunities in technology [10] Group 9 - The expectation of a shift from strategic decoupling to a phase of cooperation between the U.S. and China is likely to enhance risk appetite for RMB assets [11] - The market is not expected to experience a straightforward upward trajectory, but the overall bullish sentiment remains intact despite potential high-level fluctuations [11] - The focus on low-position cyclical sectors and overseas opportunities is anticipated to be a key investment strategy moving forward [11]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a GDP growth target of around 5%, with a long-term average growth rate of 4.17% needed to meet the 2035 goals [3][4] - The focus on technology and domestic demand expansion is emphasized, with a strong emphasis on AI and domestic substitution as key themes [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of service consumption and the potential for consumption upgrades in rural and lower-tier cities [3][4] Group 2 - The supply side strategy includes enhancing service supply and reducing excess capacity, with a projected industrial added value of approximately 5 trillion yuan from "anti-involution" industries [4][5] - On the demand side, external demand is expected to remain stable, with a projected 2% year-on-year increase in exports for 2026 [5][6] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in fixed asset investment, particularly in manufacturing and real estate, with infrastructure investment growth expected to remain stable [5][6] Group 3 - The CPI is projected to increase by about 0.7% year-on-year in 2026, while the PPI could range from -0.7% to 0.5% depending on various scenarios [6][7] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and a focus on optimizing the credit transmission mechanism [7][8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with a projected deficit rate increase to 4.2% and a focus on supporting technology and consumer spending [8][9] Group 4 - The report indicates a positive outlook for equity markets, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, while bond yields are expected to rise slightly [9][10] - The analysis of Q3 2025 earnings shows a significant improvement in revenue and profit growth across major indices, with non-financial A-shares experiencing a notable turnaround [11][12] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key driver of growth, with substantial profit increases observed in sectors such as media, electronics, and defense [12][13] Group 5 - The report discusses the revival of the new share issuance market, with significant increases in new share subscription returns and enthusiasm for IPOs in the North Exchange [42][43] - The "merger and acquisition six guidelines" have led to a notable increase in M&A activity, with a doubling of disclosed transactions since their implementation [46][47] - The ongoing "three assets" reform in state-owned enterprises is expected to catalyze a new wave of mergers and acquisitions, focusing on asset securitization [48][50] Group 6 - The successful listing of the Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT is noted, with a strong performance in consumption REITs, indicating a shift towards asset-light operations in commercial real estate [54][55] - The report highlights the upward trend in coal prices, particularly for thermal coal, driven by supply constraints and increased demand due to seasonal factors [59]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles discusses the historical market trends in November and year-end, highlighting a shift from "pricing current fundamentals" from April to October to "pricing expectations" from November to March of the following year [1][5] - Historical data indicates that the correlation between market performance in November and fundamentals is weak, often showing a negative correlation, as October is a strong earnings month leading to a need for market correction [1][5] - The market style in November tends to favor small-cap and growth stocks while value and stability lag behind, reflecting a trend of speculative investments in smaller themes [1][5] Group 2 - The year-end market performance is characterized by a search for future economic clues, leading to a revaluation of various industries based on next year's economic expectations [2][3] - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are expected to continue their growth momentum, becoming key areas for economic exploration in the coming year [2][3] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to enhance cyclical sectors, with more areas showing marginal improvement trends, providing room for valuation recovery [2][3] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to enter a more balanced phase with a focus on technology growth, compared to the previous quarter [3] - The scarcity of high-growth sectors has led to increased investor focus on AI, with public funds heavily weighted towards the TMT sector, reaching historical highs [3][6] - As earnings reports conclude, the market is expected to shift focus towards next year's performance expectations and industry trends, leading to a more active thematic investment phase [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to face a new round of horizontal adjustment in November due to the exhaustion of previous upward momentum and the concentration of three major favorable factors at the end of October, suggesting investors should pause on increasing positions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The market experienced a surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, driven by the recovery of technology stocks and the positive impact of the "14th Five-Year Plan," Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the disclosure of third-quarter reports from key industries [2]. - The third-quarter reports indicate a positive recovery trend in A-share performance, with significant growth in major sectors, particularly in traditional cyclical industries and technology sectors, showing strong recovery signs [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Recommendations - The report highlights three main directions for investment: 1) Focus on sectors with positive economic signals, particularly renewable energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries) and non-bank financials (brokerage, insurance); 2) Year-end portfolio adjustments favoring sectors with lower performance in the first ten months, such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, food and beverage, and transportation; 3) Short-term switches to sectors that experienced the largest declines in October, including media, beauty care, and automotive [3]. - Key sectors to watch include coal, oil and petrochemicals, renewable energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), non-bank financials (brokerage, insurance), public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [1][3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to continue high-level fluctuations due to a "policy window" period following the Fourth Plenary Session and new US-China negotiations, with a focus on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [2][3] - Economic fundamentals are showing marginal slowdown, with October retail sales expected to grow by approximately 2.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.7% [4][25] - The central bank's indication of restoring open market operations for government bonds signals a marginal easing of monetary policy, which may lead to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect if interest rates decline [3][17] Group 2: Industry Configuration - The AI industry remains a core focus, with adjustments providing opportunities for a new round of technology market trends, while sectors with strong performance support, such as energy storage/batteries, military industry, storage, and engineering machinery, are also highlighted [5][39] - The first main line of investment is to continue to focus on the AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB/liquid cooling/optical fiber) and application sectors (robots/games/software), which are expected to maintain a clear trend of growth [39][41] - The second main line includes sectors with solid performance support, such as electric power equipment (energy storage/batteries), military industry, storage, and engineering machinery, which are anticipated to benefit from high demand and ongoing improvements in performance [39][41]

中观配置月报 2511：小盘成长风格继续占优 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《指增组合本周走势分化》 2025-11- 01 2. 《基于宏观数据的资产配置与风格行业 轮动体系》 2025-10-29 3. 《本周指增组合超额回撤》 2025-10- 25 ❖ 风格轮动解决方案：大盘股对经济繁荣的表现更加敏感，成长股能够更好地 受益于流动性宽松，再辅佐以市场情绪指标，刻画市场风险偏好与拥挤度，通 过三维度多因子打分，构建风格轮动综合打分体系。 ❖ 根据 2025 年 10 月 31 日的最新数据，11 月价值成长轮动策略得出的综合 分数为 6，成长风格得分较高。根据 2025 年 10 月 31 日的最新数据，11 月 大小盘轮动策略得出的综合分数为 4，小盘风格得分较高。 ❖ 行业轮动解决方案：我们构造宏观指标、基本面指标、技术面指标、拥挤度 指标四维引擎 10 个指标作为行业指数轮动框架，其中三个拥挤度因子相关性 较高，融合成一个负向指标。 ❖ 根据 2025 年 10 月 31 日的最新数据，11 月行业轮动综合得分排名 ...

送放心 1 - 7 - 7 - 1 - 2 - 2025 年 11 月 02 日 版 行业 -煤炭行业周报（2025.10.26-2025.11.1 ) 相关研究 寿研究报 严天鹏 A0230524090004 vantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 vanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施侍瑜 (8621)23297818× shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示 监趋严下,预计旺季煤价将上 动力煤方面，截至 10 月 31 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 592、675、770 元/吨，环比持平。供给端，据中国煤炭市场 网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 190.57 万吨，环比上周增加 20.84 万吨、增幅 12.28%、同比下降 3.58%。大秦铁路检修结束，调入量环比回升、但同 ...