Market Overview - The A-share market showed divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a minor increase, and the ChiNext Index leading the gains, driven by the technology growth sector [4] - The ChiNext Index broke through short-term moving average resistance, continuing its rebound trend, while the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated below 4100 points, indicating intensified market contention [4] Market Performance - A total of 2,843 stocks rose, with a rise-fall ratio of 3:13, indicating a clear structural opportunity in the market, with profits concentrated in specific sectors [5] - The total trading volume in both markets was 3.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.12%, yet still within a high range, reflecting significant stock market competition [6] Sector Analysis - Growth sectors such as port shipping, internet e-commerce, and storage chips led the market gains, while cyclical sectors like steel, precious metals, and coal experienced declines [6] - Institutional investors displayed precise positioning by reducing holdings in previously high-performing cyclical resources and blue-chip stocks, while increasing investments in semiconductor, AI hardware, and innovative pharmaceuticals within the technology growth sector [8] Investor Sentiment - Main funds showed a net outflow, while retail investors experienced a net inflow, indicating a contrasting investment behavior [7] - Retail investors demonstrated a tendency to follow the main growth lines, focusing on technology growth and oversold rebound sectors, with a moderate willingness to chase high prices [8] Trading Behavior - As of March 16, 2023, 75.85% of retail investors reported being optimistic about the market, with 52.17% fully invested, 28.16% below full investment, and 6.26% in cash [9][19] - The sentiment towards asset recovery showed that 44.99% of investors were within a 20% loss range, while 3.45% reported gains exceeding 50% [21]

Group 1 - The article discusses four strategies for hedging against rising oil prices, emphasizing that high inflation may weaken non-US assets while making Chinese assets more attractive due to lower dependency on oil [1][2] - The ongoing rise in oil prices is expected to drive up prices in the basic chemical and related agricultural sectors, with oil prices remaining the primary trading focus [1][2] - The article highlights the impact of soaring energy prices, suggesting a dual focus on coal and renewable energy construction, particularly in storage, wind, solar, lithium batteries, and grid infrastructure [2] Group 2 - The steel industry is undergoing a significant transformation due to policy changes and geopolitical factors, with domestic emission reduction policies marking the practical implementation of carbon neutrality [3] - The article notes that the overseas steel supply-demand balance is expected to reverse by 2024, with a projected shortfall rate of -2.3% by 2025, driven by high energy costs affecting overseas electric furnace production [3][4] - China's crude steel production peaked around 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.43% expected from 2020 to 2024, and a target of approximately 850 million tons by 2030 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: Cost has support, and opportunities to go long can be sought after the basis weakens. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand after the Two Sessions, but price rebound elasticity may be suppressed under high inventory [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors, and the uncertainty is strong. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in geopolitical themes [60]. - **Iron Ore**: BHP's iron ore supply is restricted again, and iron ore prices have risen significantly. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Supply**: Affected by previous environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, with a decrease of 6.4 to 221.2 wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonal average. After the Two Sessions, production may gradually increase [5]. - **Demand**: Construction material demand is seasonally rising, with both supply and demand increasing. There is no sign of exceeding the seasonal average. Hot - rolled coil production has decreased following the recent decline in pig iron production, while apparent demand has slightly increased. Cold - rolled and medium - plate supply and demand are slightly stronger [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products is still accumulating, but the amplitude is narrowing. Only construction materials (rebar + wire rod) are still accumulating inventory, while plate inventory has begun to decline. The billet inventory also shows signs of reaching the peak and falling. The total inventory level of the five major steel products is at a historical neutral level, with construction material inventory being low and plate and billet inventory being slightly high [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coil and rebar has declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 78, a week - on - week decrease of 14; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 25, a week - on - week decrease of 25 [5]. - **Profit**: After the Spring Festival, the increase in furnace charge prices is slightly higher than that of finished products, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the rebar profit is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13%, with a weekly change of 3.03% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coil has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coil is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is not high [5]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Geopolitical factors still affect the market. Although the black - metal sector's supply and demand are mainly domestic and less sensitive to geopolitical factors, there is an overflow effect on market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be affected, providing upward impetus through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term long. In the context of high inventory, the price rebound elasticity may be suppressed. The derivatives market is currently focused on the price pulse increase in the energy - chemical chain triggered by geopolitical issues. There is no unilateral trend - driving market, and pulse - type rebound bands can be participated in. After the recent basis weakens, attention can be paid to basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, with hot - rolled coil being the best choice [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Participate in pulse - type rebounds. Arbitrage: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is in the range of [140, 180]. Cash - and - carry: Opportunities for basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coil [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is slowing down. During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place. The average daily pig iron production of 247 steel mills this week was 221.20 (- 6.39), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13% (+ 3.03%). Although pig iron production decreased rapidly this week due to environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions, production resumed in the second half of the week, but the data did not reflect it [60]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports remains at a high level, and the port trade quotes are firm. However, the willingness to accept high - priced Mongolian coal is still insufficient, and most enterprises are still observing the price trend of coking coal and coke. The overseas coking coal price in Australia is weakly stable, and the forward price is slightly stronger due to the tense international situation [60]. - **Coke Supply**: During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place for coking plants. This week, the average daily coke production was 110.9 (-), and the coking profit was - 3 (- 20). Affected by the increase in the price of chemical by - products, although the coke price adjustment was implemented and the raw coal price increased, the actual profit of coking plants was relatively good [60]. - **Inventory**: The downstream procurement sentiment has increased. The supply of coal mines in the production areas is sufficient. Although the downstream inventory is still sufficient, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the market procurement sentiment has increased, and the inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, which is beneficial to prices [60]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the first round of price cuts was implemented, the sharp rise in crude oil interrupted the price - cut cycle. After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and the trade warehouse - receipt remains around 1730 before the price cuts. The price of Mongolian raw coal has rebounded to around 1090, and the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1200 [60]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13% (+ 3.03%), and the coking profit is - 3 (- 20) [60]. - **Summary**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the market trend. The high - level volatility of crude oil has also driven the strengthening of other commodities. The market is mainly concerned about the situation in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a state of de - facto closure. The storage and continuous production characteristics of crude oil are still the biggest risk points in the future. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the navigation situation in the strait. In the market, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered, the coking coal and coke auction prices have mostly increased, and the coke price - cut cycle has temporarily stopped. There is no current plan to raise prices [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily observe. Arbitrage: Consider gradually establishing cash - and - carry positions. Risk concerns: Changes in coal mine production policies, changes in steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [60]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 12.7 tons per day to 417 tons per day. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia increased by 21.5 tons per day, that from Brazil decreased by 2.4 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines decreased by 6.4 tons per day to 68 tons per day. In terms of arrivals, the total arrivals in China increased by 24.8 tons per day week - on - week, with arrivals from Australia increasing by 23.4 tons per day, arrivals from Brazil decreasing by 20.3 tons per day, and arrivals from non - mainstream sources increasing by 21.7 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: This period, the pig iron production of steel mills decreased by 6.39 to 221.2 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the phased emission reduction control requirements during the Two Sessions. After the end of the restrictions, pig iron production is expected to continue to increase in mid - March. The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly to 332.33 tons, and the port inventory has increased by 52.49 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year. Affected by the low - inventory operation of steel mills, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has increased slightly by 52.49 tons to 17947.32 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [112]. - **Summary**: There are rumors in the market about restrictions on the procurement of Newman powder, which has an impact on the market. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips. Arbitrage: Temporarily observe. Risk concerns: Trade frictions and macro - level policies [112].

Group 1 - The storage chip concept stocks in A-shares experienced a collective surge, with Baiwei Storage rising over 13% and reaching a historical high, while companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Jintaiyang hit the daily limit [2] - The semiconductor industry chain remained active in the afternoon, with Huahong Company increasing by over 12% [2] - The PCB concept also showed strong performance, with stocks like Jin'an Guoji and Chaoying Electronics hitting the daily limit [2] Group 2 - The shipping sector saw a significant rise in the afternoon, with stocks such as China Merchants Energy and HNA Technology reaching the daily limit [2][6] - China Merchants Energy opened with a sharp increase, closing at 4.81 yuan per share, with a total market value of 22.512 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The energy shipping industry is facing anxiety over supply chain disruptions due to overseas conflicts, which, combined with concentrated replenishment demand, is expected to drive freight rates upward [11][12] - The average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero on the 14th, marking a significant disruption since military actions began, with a pre-conflict average of 77 ships daily [10] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Technology Index showed strong performance, rising nearly 3% during the day [14] - Multiple factors contributed to the rise of the Hang Seng Technology Index, including perceived undervaluation by notable investors and significant valuation advantages compared to other indices [15] - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a key player in the AI ecosystem, encompassing major technology companies and benefiting from the current liquidity environment [15]

期货研究报告 2026年03月16日 周报 双焦：能源属性发酵，短期震荡偏多 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内炼焦煤、焦炭价格震荡运行。供应端，产地多数煤矿维持正常生产，煤 矿线下新签订单增多，炼焦煤价格稳中有涨，但考虑黑色系盘面震荡，下游焦企还是保持谨慎采购，煤价向 上空间有限；下游方面，化工产品价格的明显上涨使得焦企边际盈利改善，短期焦炭供应以稳或者增产预期 为主，且随着国内重要会议结束，前期部分减产、检修的高炉有集中复产预期，届时铁水有增产预期。 展望：煤矿复产高度仍受限制，但蒙煤进口高企之下焦煤基本面现实压力仍存，不过当前焦煤价格受海 内外宏观预期及地缘冲突等因素影响较多，若地缘冲突持续或跟随原油价格表现强势，若地缘冲突缓和则预 计保持震荡运行。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1: Energy Production Overview - In January and February, the production of raw coal remained stable, while crude oil production shifted from decline to growth, natural gas production showed steady growth, and electricity production accelerated [1][2][4][7][9]. Group 2: Raw Coal, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas Production - The production of raw coal in large-scale industries was 760 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to December 2025; the average daily output was 12.93 million tons [2]. - Crude oil production in large-scale industries reached 35.73 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, reversing a previous decline of 0.6% in December 2025; the average daily output was 606,000 tons [4]. - The processing of crude oil also maintained growth, with a processing volume of 122.63 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; the average daily processing was 2.079 million tons [4]. - Natural gas production in large-scale industries was 44.6 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; the average daily output was 7.6 billion cubic meters [7]. Group 3: Electricity Production Situation - The electricity production in large-scale industries reached 1,571.8 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, accelerating by 4.0 percentage points compared to December 2025; the average daily generation was 26.64 billion kilowatt-hours [9]. - By type, thermal power production turned from decline to growth with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, compared to a decline of 3.2% in December 2025; hydropower growth accelerated to 6.8%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points; nuclear power growth slowed to 0.8%, down by 2.3 percentage points; wind power growth was 5.3%, slowing by 3.6 percentage points; solar power growth was 9.9%, slowing by 8.3 percentage points [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound today, with the Shenzhen Component Index closing in the green and the ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 75 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][7] - Over 2,800 stocks in the market saw an increase, indicating a broad-based rally [1] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector saw a collective surge, with Baiwei Storage rising over 12% to set a new historical high, and stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation, Jintian Sun, Langke Technology, and Yingxin Development hitting the daily limit [1] - The deep-sea technology sector also performed well, with stocks such as Dongfang Ocean, Shenkai Co., and Ocean King reaching the daily limit [1] - The PCB sector was active, with Jin'an Guoji, Chaoying Electronics, and Zhuolang Intelligent hitting the daily limit [1] - The shipping sector saw gains in the afternoon, with stocks like China Merchants Energy and HNA Technology reaching the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - The energy storage and green electricity sectors continued to adjust, with China Nuclear Engineering and China Power Construction hitting the daily limit down [2] - The coal sector faced declines, with Zhengzhou Coal Electricity experiencing a significant drop [2] Index Performance - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.41% [3][4]

Group 1: Core Information about Mongolian Coal Inventory - As of March 14, 2026, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimaodu Port continued to increase slightly to 448 tons [3] - The average monthly vehicle volume in March 2026 was 1433, much higher than the historical same - period figures of 878 vehicles (2025), 1121 vehicles (2024), and 988 vehicles (2023) [3] - The weekly inventory data from November 2025 to March 2026 shows the changes in the Mongolian coal inventory at the Ganqimaodu supervision area, including specific inventory amounts and their week - on - week changes [5] Group 2: Data Sources - The data is from Zhangshang Meijiao and Green Grand Futures Research Institute [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, all black - series commodities rose, with raw material prices outperforming finished products. The weekly increase of the iron ore main contract was 5.1%, coking coal 4.9%, and coke 2.5%. The domestic coal mine production has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the online auction transaction rate has remained high recently. Downstream replenishment and speculative demand have increased. In the short term, the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the coming week, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high points [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Black - series commodities all rose this week, with raw material price performance stronger than that of finished products. The iron ore main contract rose 5.1% weekly, coking coal 4.9%, and coke 2.5%. Domestically, coal mine production has returned to pre - holiday levels, online auction transaction rates remain high, and downstream replenishment and speculative demand have increased [4]. 3.2 Coking Coal Market 3.2.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different varieties of coking coal have different warehouse receipt costs in different locations. For example, on March 13, 2026, the warehouse receipt cost of Meng 5 in Tangshan was 1163 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 1390 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, one - month average, and seasonality of different contracts are different. For example, the basis of the January contract was - 188, with a weekly change of - 50 and a basis rate of - 15.98% [15]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Supply - **Mine**: This week, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 1.9361 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 107,500 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 777,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,200 tons [22]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 230,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 31%, a week - on - week increase of 4.43% [25]. 3.2.4 Coking Coal Import - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [26][29]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal Auction Data - From February 27 to March 6, 2026, the coking coal listing volume decreased by 529,200 tons week - on - week to 1.4653 million tons, the transaction rate decreased by 4.79 percentage points to 77.14%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 4.79 percentage points to 22.86% [32]. 3.3 Coke Market 3.3.1 Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different varieties of coke have different warehouse receipt costs in different locations. For example, on March 12, 2026, the warehouse receipt cost of Rizhao Port wet - quenched coke was 1726 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 1470 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3.2 Coking Profit - As of March 13, 2026, the national coking profit was - 3 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. Profits in different regions also showed a downward trend [44]. 3.3.3 Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, one - month average, and seasonality of different coke contracts are different. For example, the basis of the January contract was - 280, with a weekly change of - 56 and a basis rate of - 19.07% [48]. 3.3.4 Coke Supply - Not detailed enough in the content 3.3.5 Coke Demand - Not detailed enough in the content 3.3.6 Coke Total Inventory and Distribution - As of March 13, 2026, the total coke inventory decreased slightly week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills increased by 162,900 tons to 6.8755 million tons, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 98,700 tons to 1.0043 million tons, and the inventory of ports decreased by 67,300 tons to 1.9638 million tons [60].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" highlight a focus on strong industries, digitalization, and population development, with an emphasis on modernizing the industrial system and promoting investment and consumption cycles [6][5][27] - The report indicates that the coal industry is experiencing significant profitability due to rising chemical prices and diesel shortages, leading to potential production cuts [3][20] - The AI-driven demand for optical fibers is expected to create a supply-demand gap, with a projected shortfall of 6% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, driven by new applications in AI and drones [26][27] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term trends such as the increasing demand for medical and pension insurance, despite short-term market pressures [27][28] - The securities sector is experiencing high trading activity and is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and performance [27][28] - The NAS (Network Attached Storage) industry is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% from 2021 to 2024, driven by strong demand for data storage and management solutions [36][37]