Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance among bank stocks, while oil, coal, and electric power stocks declined [1][6] Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 242.84 billion with a trading volume of 0.38 billion, closing at 4.11, up by 0.03 (0.74%) [3] Insurance Sector - China Life Insurance had a market capitalization of 382.10 billion, with a trading volume of 1.46 billion, closing at 59.62, up by 1.12 (2.99%) [3] - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 371.44 billion, with a trading volume of 1.02 billion, closing at 38.61, up by 1.54 (2.65%) [3] - Ping An Insurance had a market capitalization of 1,085.69 billion, with a trading volume of 5.02 billion, closing at 8.64, up by 0.17 (2.01%) [3] Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,806.43 billion, with a trading volume of 3.41 billion, closing at 122.78, down by 16.99 (-1.17%) [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu had a market capitalization of 221.85 billion, with a trading volume of 1.14 billion, closing at 1438.01, down by 3.73 (-2.01%) [3] - Wuliangye had a market capitalization of 476.58 billion, with a trading volume of 1.31 billion, closing at 181.85, down by 0.76 (-0.62%) [3] Technology Sector - Haiguang Information had a market capitalization of 246.59 billion, with a trading volume of 1.20 billion, closing at 341.73, down by 0.23 (-0.07%) [3] - Northern Huachuang had a market capitalization of 282.22 billion, with a trading volume of 4.45 billion, closing at 674.60, up by 1.30 (0.19%) [3] - Cambricon Technologies had a market capitalization of 32.38 billion, with a trading volume of 1.79 billion, closing at 139.31, down by 2.18 (-1.54%) [3] Energy Sector - Sinopec had a market capitalization of 269.58 billion, with a trading volume of 5.34 billion, closing at 5.88, down by 0.11 (-1.27%) [3] - PetroChina had a market capitalization of 1,566.66 billion, with a trading volume of 8.05 billion, closing at 8.56, down by 0.06 (-1.08%) [3] Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,846.26 billion, with a trading volume of 5.87 billion, closing at 37.78, down by 0.47 (-2.26%) [3] Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 363.53 billion, with a trading volume of 32.66 billion, closing at 29.86, up by 0.41 (2.03%) [4] Consumer Electronics - Luxshare Precision had a market capitalization of 272.89 billion, with a trading volume of 23.13 billion, closing at 28.83, up by 0.17 (0.59%) [4] Home Appliances - Gree Electric had a market capitalization of 228.16 billion, with a trading volume of 10.44 billion, closing at 25.72, down by 0.09 (-0.19%) [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - Heng Rui Medicine had a market capitalization of 404.93 billion, with a trading volume of 4.53 billion, closing at 48.52, up by 4.61 (8.17%) [4]

Market Overview - The core viewpoint emphasizes that stocks are favored over bonds, with a weak outlook for gold and the US dollar. Investors are advised to focus on changes in equity structure and style, suggesting a strategy of "one body, two wings" [1] - The main focus is on cyclical stocks, which have outperformed technology stocks recently, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs around the 3600-point mark [1] Cyclical Sector Dynamics - The cyclical sector is driven by policies such as supply contraction and infrastructure projects, indicating a clear revival in this area [2] - The performance of large-cap stocks above 3600 points has created a positive wealth effect, with hopes for a sustained rally in cyclical stocks to surpass previous highs [2] Profitability Insights - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. State-owned enterprises saw a profit drop of 7.6%, while private enterprises experienced a slight increase of 1.7% [2] - Despite a decline in overall industrial profits, certain sectors like manufacturing are showing improvement, with specific industries maintaining good growth [3] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry has faced long-term challenges, including competition from renewable energy and overcapacity issues. The cumulative profit for the coal sector in the first half of 2025 was down 53% [4] - The profitability of coal mining is closely linked to market conditions, and while there may be short-term rebounds, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to fundamental changes in demand and production technology [4] Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests that while cyclical opportunities may be diminishing, localized opportunities exist, particularly in sectors like construction materials due to disaster recovery efforts [6] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a holistic view that integrates cyclical and technological investments, emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight in navigating market fluctuations [6][7]

A股三大指数冲高回落，截至午盘，沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌0.16%，创业板指涨0.10%，北证50指数跌0.38%，沪深京三市半日成交 额11387亿元，较上日放量146亿元。全市场超3000只个股下跌。 板块题材上，PCB、影视院线、PEEK材料板块走高，煤炭、钢铁板块调整。 盘面上，PCB板块全线走高，方邦股份20CM涨停，胜宏科技（300476）涨超11%，兴森科技（002436）、骏亚科技（603386）涨停 封板。影视院线板块走强，幸福蓝海（300528）20CM一字封板，中国电影（600977）涨停封板。PEEK材料板块走高，中欣氟材 （002915）涨停封板，明阳科技、超捷股份（301005）涨超14%。煤炭板块调整，郑州煤电（600121）、山西焦煤（000983）跌超 5%。钢铁板块低位震荡，柳钢股份（601003）跌超8%。 涨停天梯榜： 【6连板】 西藏旅游（600749）。 【4连板】 拓山重工（001226）。 今日市场炒什么： 【人工智能】 相关个股：尔康制药、*ST天喻、*ST汇科 消息面：上海阶跃星辰智能科技有限公司在2025世界人工智能大会上发布了新一代基础大模型Step ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.10% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 175 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Cyclical stocks, including steel and coal, underwent a collective adjustment, with companies like Liugang Co., Ltd. seeing declines of over 5% [1] - In contrast, sectors such as computing hardware, insurance, and film performed well, with companies like Xinhua Insurance reaching historical highs [1] - The PEEK materials, PCB concept, film, and insurance sectors showed significant gains, while coal, steel, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and AI sectors faced notable declines [1] Individual Stock Highlights - Shenghong Technology achieved a new historical high in the computing hardware sector [1] - Happiness Blue Ocean saw a 20% limit-up in the film sector [1] Trading Statistics - The limit-up rate was recorded at 69%, with 40 stocks hitting the limit and 18 stocks touching the limit-down [5] - The high opening rate was 46%, with a profit rate of 50% [5]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced fluctuations in the morning session, with the ChiNext index rising over 1% at one point, while the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3600 points before retreating [1] Market Performance - The three major stock indices opened near flat, dipped, and then strengthened, but collectively retreated before the noon close, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.17% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.16%, while the ChiNext index rose 0.10% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with over 3500 stocks in the green [1] Sector Performance - The film and theater, PEEK materials, insurance, and brokerage sectors showed significant gains, while coal, non-ferrous metals, and hydropower concept stocks experienced declines [1] - A particular highlight was the stock of Shangwei New Materials, which surged over 15%, marking a year-to-date increase of over 1000%, making it the first stock to achieve a tenfold increase in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market showed mixed performance at midday, with certain ETFs experiencing significant gains while others faced notable declines [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) led the gains with an increase of 2.57% [1] - The Innovative Drug ETF Tianhong (517380) rose by 2.11% [1] - The Pharmaceutical ETF (562050) saw an increase of 2.10% [1] - Conversely, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF Jiashi (589300) experienced a significant drop of 14.61% [1] - The Energy and Chemical ETF (159981) declined by 3.98% [1] - The Coal ETF (515220) fell by 2.96% [1]

市场早间冲高回落，三大指数涨跌互现。PCB等算力硬件股再度走强，兴森科技、骏亚科技涨停，胜宏 科技涨超10%再创新高。影视股表现活跃，幸福蓝海、中国电影涨停。医药股盘中拉升，辰欣药业、丰 原药业、海思科等涨停。下跌方面，煤炭、钢铁等资源股调整，山西焦煤、柳钢股份等跌超5%。个股 跌多涨少，沪深京三市超2900股飘绿，上午半天成交1.14万亿。午间收盘沪指跌0.17%，深成指跌 0.16%，创业板涨0.1%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market has shifted to a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to macro - events. For rebar, it is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading; for iron ore, it is expected to move in a volatile manner; for coking coal and coke, a neutral stance of waiting and observing is advised [5][36][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: The rebar market is expected to shift to a volatile pattern. It is recommended to either wait and observe or conduct short - term trading. The static valuation has returned to a neutral level. Attention should be paid to the outcomes of Sino - US economic and trade talks, signals from the Politburo meeting, the implementation of crude steel production restrictions, and the situation of coking coal futures position limits [5][6] - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal increased due to production over - inspection, driving up the price of steel. The spot price of rebar in Hangzhou rose by 200 yuan/ton to 3490 yuan/ton week - on - week, the futures price of the rebar 10 contract rose by 209 yuan/ton to 3356 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly narrowed to 134 yuan [9][14] - **Steel Mill Profits**: The profits of long - process steel mills expanded, with an estimated profit of about 378 yuan/ton in East China. The profits of short - process steel mills improved, with a profit of about 105 yuan/ton for flat - rate electricity. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel mills was 63.64% (+3.47) [20] - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Rebar production increased by 2.90 tons to 211.96 tons, apparent demand increased by 10.41 tons to 216.58 tons, and inventory decreased by 4.62 tons to 538.64 tons [27] - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price rose to near the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces, and the static valuation has returned to a neutral level [29] - **Key Data/Policy/News**: Major events include the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, the upcoming release of a stable growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a coal mine production inspection notice, and Sino - US economic and trade talks [31] Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: A neutral stance of waiting and observing is recommended. For coking coal, the short - term supply - demand pattern is tight, and price support is strong. For coke, there is still an expectation of price increases [36][37] - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices increased, with domestic and foreign coal prices rising. Coke prices continued to rise, with both spot and futures prices increasing [39][55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, supply is affected by factors such as production adjustments in major producing areas, and demand is strong. For coke, supply is temporarily shrinking, and demand is strong, with low inventory levels [36] - **Inventory Situation**: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased, with upstream de - stocking being obvious. The overall inventory of coke slightly decreased [53][70] Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: The iron ore market is expected to move in a volatile manner at a high level and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black metal varieties [74] - **Market Review**: The iron ore futures price adjusted downward from a high level last week. The spot prices of various grades of iron ore increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract rose by 17.5 yuan/ton to 802.5 yuan/ton [74][75] - **Supply Analysis**: Domestic production has recovered, with an increase in the daily output of iron concentrate powder. Global shipments have slightly increased, with an increase in Brazilian shipments. Port arrivals and port clearance volumes have both declined, and port inventories have increased [89][90][101] - **Demand Analysis**: The daily output of hot metal is basically flat, steel mills have good profits, and the replenishment rhythm for iron ore is maintained [74] - **Inventory Situation**: Port inventories of iron ore have increased, and the total inventory of ports and steel mills has also increased [106]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 表2：7月25日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 28 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月25日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trends of various futures are judged, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, the trends are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [4]. - For stock index futures, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. For treasury bond futures, consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. For black commodities, prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For non - ferrous metals and new materials, prices are expected to show different trends such as high - level oscillation and weakening. For agricultural products, prices are affected by supply and demand and other factors, showing different trends. For energy and chemical products, most are expected to be in a weak or oscillating state [6][7][8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The government has introduced a series of policies, such as the establishment of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, the deployment of key tasks for the reform and development of the capital market by the CSRC, and the adjustment of the maximum value of the预定 interest rate of new insurance products by insurance companies. Economic data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size have rebounded, and the US durable goods orders have declined significantly [8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The strategy is to pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average. The A - share market has shown a pattern of sector rotation. The CSRC has deployed key tasks, and insurance companies are adjusting the预定 interest rate. The profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the movement of stop - profit funds [6][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration in the medium term. The bond market has shown short - term fluctuations, and inflation and the capital situation are the focus. Attention should be paid to the trends of the stock index and commodities [8][9]. Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: Affected by policies, the expectation of increasing inflation through the supply side is rising. The off - season is not weak, and the peak season is not strong. The demand may weaken marginally, and the supply is expected to remain strong. Steel mill profits vary, and iron ore production is expected to remain high. Prices may enter a short - term oscillating adjustment phase [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply may be reduced due to production inspections, and the demand is stable. However, there is a possibility of a decline in iron water production, and imported coal may put pressure on prices. The adjustment of trading limits has affected prices [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market may open lower and fluctuate greatly on the 28th. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and the profit margins have expanded. It is recommended to hold short positions [14]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is recommended to avoid risks and wait and see; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider taking profits on rallies. The supply of soda ash has decreased due to maintenance, and the inventory has declined. The price of glass has risen, but the demand is mainly speculative [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term range trading is recommended. The prices of both have been affected by regulatory measures and market sentiment [18]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the inventory inflection point may have arrived. The processing fee is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and prices will oscillate and weaken [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will oscillate strongly before the supply - side disruption expectation is falsified. If the production reduction does not occur for a long time, prices may fall [20]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon has a situation of strong expectation and weak reality, and the market may fluctuate greatly [21]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating and rebounding under pressure. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies in the long - term. The market is affected by macro and supply - demand factors, and the consumption outlook is still worrying [26][27]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar and the decline in import costs. The international sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The price is in a seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may be large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the impact of relevant policies [32]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to conduct light - position positive arbitrage. The market is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [33]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and short - term trading is recommended. The market is affected by policies, substitute products, and supply and demand [34][35]. - **Jujubes**: It is recommended to lightly short. The market is in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation and weather [36]. - **Pigs**: Short - term short - selling is recommended for near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to risk control. Arbitrage strategies can be considered [36]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: It is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and trade negotiations [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are weaker than crude oil, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation, the Middle East power generation demand, and the shipping market [41]. - **Plastics**: The market sentiment may lead to a slight strength in polyolefins in the short term, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It is recommended to beware of callback risks [41][42]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs. Attention should be paid to factors such as raw material supply and market sentiment [43]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to beware of callback risks and consider short - selling options. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is affected by sentiment [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH2509 contract is expected to be under pressure in the context of the rising price of liquid chlorine and the weakening of commodity futures [44]. - **Asphalt**: The fundamentals are stable, and prices follow crude oil. The market is affected by factors such as the oil price oscillation and the seasonal demand [47]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is not recommended to go long, and short - selling can be considered later. The supply may decrease, but the demand is weak [48]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the long - term. Prices are likely to fall [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate and rise, but the amplitude is limited. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot trading [50]. - **Logs**: The spot price has rebounded, and the basis repair logic still exists. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [51]. - **Urea**: Futures are expected to open significantly lower and then oscillate. It is advisable to consider going long after a significant decline [52].