Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - On October 13, the silicon ferroalloy 2601 contract was reported at 5406, down 0.95%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5200, down 30 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers mainly maintain normal production and deliver previous orders, with a neutral inventory level. The price of semi - coke has stabilized and rebounded, providing short - term cost support. The operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 13, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5746, down 0.24%. The spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5550. Affected by factors such as intensified trade risks and the continued shutdown of the US federal government, the market experienced a "Black Friday". Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly before the holiday, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5746 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5406 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume was 574,402 hands, up 9081 hands; SF futures contract holding volume was 409,688 hands, up 30,544 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume was - 54,938 hands, up 776 hands; silicon ferroalloy top 20 net holding volume was - 27,323 hands, up 4336 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 22 yuan/ton; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 52,402, down 1639; SF warehouse receipts were 14,036, down 1004 [2]. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Qinghai silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average was 5671.9 yuan/ton, down 22.1 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 206 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - SM main contract basis was - 196 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block in Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 447.80 million tons, up 20.60 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 43.19%, down 0.99%; silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 35.94%, up 0.61% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply was 204,225 tons, down 2205 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 115,800 tons, up 1300 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 242,500 tons, up 8700 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 66,030 tons, up 4570 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days; silicon ferroalloy national steel mill inventory was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 122,073 tons, down 411 tons; five major steel types' silicon ferroalloy demand was 19,754.6 tons, down 111.3 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 84.25%, down 0.02%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.53%, down 0.10% [2]. - Crude steel output was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. Industry News - China's export control is not a ban on exports, and applications that meet the regulations will be approved. The impact on the supply chain is considered limited [2]. - China has implemented counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, and the Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US ships [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into Qualcomm for suspected antitrust law violations [2]. - The annual power consumption of global data centers currently accounts for over 3% of the world's total electricity consumption, and it is expected to reach 11% - 17% by 2030, which may impact the power industry [2]. Profit and Market Pricing - Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy spot profit was - 460 yuan/ton; Ningxia silicon ferroalloy spot profit was - 495 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September 75B silicon ferroalloy tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round [2]. - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton; Ningxia manganese - silicon spot profit was - 250 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September manganese - silicon final price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [2].

让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/10/10 截至 9 月 30 日，硅锰连续合约收盘价 5628 元/吨，硅铁连续合约收盘价 5310 元/吨，对应历史分位值分别为 9.6%、13.7%，当前价格较上半年低点的下 行空间有限，十月份仍需关注煤炭价格变动以及宏观情绪变化。操作上建议短 期空仓观望为主，中期关注商品季节性下跌后逢低做多的机会。价格方面，硅 锰主力合约价格参考区间 5400-7000 元/吨，硅铁主力合约价格参考区间 5100- 6600 元/吨。 风险与关注：反内卷、会议窗口期、美联储降息、粗钢压减政策、澳矿 发运、南非限制出口、煤矿复产、电力改革等。 K 2025 年黑色商品四季度策略报告 铁合金 四季度价格或前低后高，关注合金低估值区间 黑色研究团队 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 从国内铁合金基本面来看，目前硅锰日均产量约为 3 万吨，硅铁日均产量 约为 1.65 万吨，均处于同期高位。表内库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

Core Insights - The iron alloy industry in Ulanqab City has transitioned from scale expansion to high-quality development, with significant production figures and energy efficiency improvements [7][8][22] Group 1: Industry Overview - Ulanqab City has become the largest iron alloy production city in Inner Mongolia and the nation, with an iron alloy output of 11.31 million tons, accounting for 72% of the region's total and 31% of the national total [7][8] - The city has implemented a transformation strategy since 2021, focusing on upgrading technology and reducing environmental impact through initiatives like "three batches" and "five transformations" [8][10] Group 2: Environmental Initiatives - Ulanqab City has prioritized ecological civilization, enforcing strict environmental standards for iron alloy projects and promoting green development [9][10] - Significant pollution control measures have been taken, including the closure of all ordinary alloy furnaces below 25,000 kVA and the construction of 1.35 million square meters of fully enclosed material storage [10][11] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The city has established a technology innovation research institute to focus on advanced techniques such as direct current furnace optimization and green hydrogen smelting [21] - Companies like Jitie Iron Alloy Co. are leading in carbon-neutral projects, utilizing waste heat and emissions for energy and raw materials, significantly reducing production costs and environmental impact [16][17] Group 4: Future Goals - Ulanqab City aims to exceed 15 million tons of production capacity and achieve over 100 billion yuan in output value by 2025, driving growth in related sectors like power generation and logistics [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the silicon - manganese market showed a weak and volatile trend. The black - series commodity sector had a narrow - range oscillation, and the alloy market lacked directional drivers. The futures price was waiting for a single - side driving factor. Currently, the fundamental driving force of silicon - manganese itself was limited, and it would continue to resonate with the black - series sector in the short term. The future trend of black - series commodities and macro - sentiment needed continuous attention. It was predicted that the market would continue to oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Manganese Silicon Supply Capacity - A chart shows the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2016 - 06 to 2025 - 06 [6][7] Annual Output - A chart presents the annual production of silicon - manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and China from 2008 to 2025 [8][9] Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率 - A chart displays the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [10][11] Regional Output - Charts show the monthly production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand Steel Tender Purchase Price - A chart shows the monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 06 [15][16] Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - A chart shows the weekly daily average hot metal production and profit rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - A chart shows the monthly import and export quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - A chart shows the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region from 2019 - 09 - 30 to 2025 - 03 - 31 [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - Manganese Ore Import Volume - A chart shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 04 [23][24] Port Inventory and Available Days - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available inventory days in China from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [25][26] High - Grade Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [27][28] Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - A chart shows the daily price of South African semi - carbonate manganese lump (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese lump (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [29] Regional Cost - A chart shows the daily cost of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - Regional - A chart shows the daily profit of silicon - manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 04 - 01 [32][33]

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5180 5200 | 0 0 | -50 -50 | 5480 5550 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5436 5396 | -36 -44 | -58 -72 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5200 | 0 | -50 | 5530 | 05合约 | 5508 | -64 | -82 | | | 陕西#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5450 | 09合约 | 5620 | -68 | -86 | | | 陕西#75 | 6100 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 44 | 36 | 8 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute - Analyst: Dong Xueshan - Qualification Number: F3075616; Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 2. Key Data 2.1 Silicon Manganese Weekly Output | Region | Weekly Output (10,000 tons) | Week-on-Week Change (tons) | Cumulative Year-on-Year Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | 20.42 | -2205 | -22.33 | | Inner Mongolia | 10.00 | -420 | 0.75 | | Ningxia | 4.21 | 0 | 12.53 | | Guangxi | 0.89 | -350 | -3.86 | | Guizhou | 1.37 | 2800 | -19.59 | | Yunnan | 1.72 | -1750 | 11.98 | | Other | 2.25 | -2485 | -24.14 | [3] 2.2 Silicon Iron Weekly Output | Region | Weekly Output (10,000 tons) | Week-on-Week Change (tons) | Cumulative Year-on-Year Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | 11.58 | 0 | 7.96 | | Inner Mongolia | 3.63 | 0 | 4.77 | | Ningxia | 2.91 | 0 | 10.52 | | Shaanxi | 1.91 | 0 | 0.47 | | Qinghai | 1.65 | 0 | -9.90 | | Gansu | 1.36 | 0 | 10.88 | | Other | 0.01 | 0 | 0.01 | [3] 3. Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the alloy prices are oscillating. Manganese ore prices are firm this week, the fluctuation range of manganese silicon is limited, and the price of ferrosilicon is oscillating weakly due to fundamental pressure [3][6]. - Macroscopically, domestically, relevant departments issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition; overseas, there are differences in the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and tariff events may lead to an escalation of the Sino - US trade war. Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, the support for raw material demand is limited, and the cost of ferrosilicon is expected to decline, resulting in a higher price fluctuation range than that of manganese silicon [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The FeSi2511 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,436 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton compared to the pre - holiday closing price, with a trading volume of 234,128 lots and an open interest of 118,193 lots, an increase of 112 lots compared to the previous period [8]. - The MnSi2601 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to the pre - holiday closing price, with a trading volume of 279,333 lots and an open interest of 376,591 lots, an increase of 28,300 lots compared to the previous period [8]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country oscillated weakly this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,380 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,620 - 5,980 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 120 - 0 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon Fundamentals 3.3.1 Production - The weekly output of manganese silicon was 204,200 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons compared to last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 1.1%. The weekly operating rate was 43.19%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points compared to last week [17]. 3.3.2 Steel Tendering - After the holiday, the steel tendering price showed a downward trend, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode [24]. 3.3.3 Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of molten iron decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last week; the daily average molten iron output was 241,540 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to last week. The overall demand for manganese silicon was weak [27]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of October 10, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 54,041, a decrease of 2,070 compared to September 26, with a converted inventory of 270,205 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 10,360 tons [31]. - In September, the average available days of silicon - manganese inventory in steel mills were 15.93 days (+0.95 days) [32]. - As of October 10, the inventory of 63 domestic silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 242,500 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons compared to September 26 [36]. 3.3.5 Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore departure volume recovered, and the departure volume from Ghana increased month - on - month. The major port aggregated departure volume was 984,400 tons, an increase of 48,900 tons compared to the previous period [40]. - After the holiday, the arrival of manganese ore at ports may increase. The expected future arrival volume at Tianjin Port is 503,900 tons, and at Qinzhou Port is 82,800 tons [47]. - The manganese ore port quotations were firm. For example, in November 2025, Comilog's Gabonese lump was reported at 4.35 US dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 US dollars/ton - degree [52]. 3.4 Ferrosilicon Fundamentals 3.4.1 Production - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 115,800 tons, with no change compared to last week and an increase of 13,000 tons compared to the week before the holiday. The weekly operating rate was 35.94%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points compared to the pre - holiday operating rate [58]. 3.4.2 Steel Tendering - Steel mills have not launched a new round of tendering quotations, and the price of traders' point - price shipments is relatively low [65]. 3.4.3 Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of molten iron decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.55%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to last week; the daily average molten iron output was 241,540 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to last week [75]. - The non - steel demand: the stainless - steel crude steel output in September was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.65%. The metal output in September was 76,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The ferrosilicon export volume in August was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [75]. 3.4.4 Inventory - As of October 10, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 15,040, a decrease of 2,333 compared to September 26, with a converted inventory of 75,200 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 11,665 tons [77]. - In September, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.52 days (+0.85 days) [78]. - As of October 10, the inventory of 60 domestic ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 66,030 tons, an increase of 4,570 tons compared to September 26 [82]. 3.4.5 Cost - The raw material price decreased, and the production cost center of ferrosilicon moved down [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, steel prices may rise further. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [4] - The coking coal and coke market is currently in a balanced supply - demand state. The supply of domestic coking coal in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. The price of coking coal is supported by policies, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profits. [10][11] - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment is optimistic after the holiday, the global iron ore shipment has increased in the third quarter, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening while overseas steel use remains high. [17] - For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the current price is not suitable for short - selling. For manganese - silicon, the demand is under pressure, but the valuation is neutral, and the cost - side manganese ore inventory is at a low level. [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3760 tons (0.4%); the total inventory was 1600720 tons, a week - on - week increase of 127860 tons (8.7%); the weekly consumption was 751430 tons, with a 32.8% decrease in building materials consumption and a 7.8% decrease in plate consumption. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai and Beijing increased slightly. [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector rebounded at the bottom during the night session yesterday. Some steel mills reduced production, and the inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a rapid decline in apparent demand. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, and if the downstream demand recovers in October, the price may rise. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to expand. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Go long on steel at low prices; Arbitrage: Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: Wait and see. [5][7][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.6%. The daily output of raw coal decreased by 10300 tons, and the inventory increased by 2500 tons. The import market of Mongolian coking coal was sluggish after the holiday. The prices of coke and coking coal in different ports and regions were provided. [9] - **Logical Analysis**: The risk of the double - coking market's decline before the holiday has been released, and it is showing strength after the holiday. The supply of domestic coking coal in October is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. The price of coking coal is supported by policies, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profits. [10][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Go long on coking coal at low prices with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see; Futures - cash: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on price competition. The New York Fed Chairman supported further interest - rate cuts in 2025. The sales of top - 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded in September. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased slightly, and the basis of the main iron - ore futures contract was 56. [13][14][16] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 0.95% during the night session. The global iron - ore shipment increased in the third quarter, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening while overseas steel use remains high. The iron - ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. [17] - **Trading Strategies**: No specific strategies provided in the given text. Ferrosilicon and Manganese - Silicon - **Related Information**: The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were provided. The export volume of South African manganese ore decreased in August but increased year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August increased by 10.66% year - on - year. [20] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the current price is not suitable for short - selling. For manganese - silicon, the demand is under pressure, but the valuation is neutral, and the cost - side manganese ore inventory is at a low level. [22] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. [23]