硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | 硅 铁 | | | | 锰 | 硅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | | 环 | 比 | | 同 比 | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量（周） | 10 . | 02 | 2 . | 77% | . | -12 34% . | 18 01 . | 0 . | 49% | -19 | 33% | | | 进口数量（5月） | 1 36 . | | -3 . | 05% | . | 361 37% . | 0 04 . | -0 . | 56% | -88 | 30% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For manganese silicon, the fundamental situation points downward in the long - term, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, expected marginal weakening of future demand in Q3, and potential downward adjustments in manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short - term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [15]. - For silicon iron, in the long - run, it may face the risk of weakening demand, especially in the coil sector and potential significant drops in hot metal production. In the short - term, it's also recommended to stay on the sidelines as the price is in a volatile state [96]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week and 290 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; basis was 118 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.04% [14][20]. - Profit and cost: Manganese silicon's estimated spot profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton. The estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week [14]. - Inventory: Estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [14]. - Strategy: In the current high - volatility and trend - less situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 564 yuan/ton, futures主力 (SM509) closed at 5712 yuan/ton, basis was 118 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.04%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 184 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 302 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 510 yuan/ton [25]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, estimated production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5734 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5801 yuan/ton, and Guangxi 6060 yuan/ton. Main manganese ore prices and power prices were relatively stable [27][30]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 18.01 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 2.99% year - on - year. In May 2025, Steel Union's manganese silicon output was 74.3 tons, down 6.29 tons month - on - month [44]. - Demand: Weekly output of rebar was 221.08 tons, up 3.24 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output down about 4.58% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [58][61]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible manganese silicon inventory was 67.03 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [70]. - Steel mill inventory: In June, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.49 days, up 0.34 days month - on - month, still relatively low [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.28%. In the short - term, it's expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure around 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support of the rebound trend line. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [79]. Silicon Iron 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price situation: As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [95]. - Profit and cost: Estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton. Main production costs were relatively stable [95]. - Supply and demand: Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][95]. - Inventory: Estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [94]. - Strategy: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high volatility and lack of a clear trend [96]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of July 3, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, the futures主力 (SF509) closed at 5390 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.10%, at a relatively neutral historical level [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: As of July 3, 2025, estimated spot profit of silicon iron remained in a loss state, with Inner Mongolia at - 438 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 304 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at - 452 yuan/ton [106]. - Production cost: As of July 3, 2025, main production costs were relatively stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5538 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5454 yuan/ton, and Qinghai at 5602 yuan/ton [112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 3, 2025, Steel Union's weekly silicon iron output was 10.02 tons, up 0.27 tons week - on - week, with cumulative weekly output up about 2.45% year - on - year. In May 2025, silicon iron output was 41.48 tons, down 2.53 tons month - on - month [117]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output was 240.85 tons, down 1.41 tons week - on - week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of silicon iron was 16.53 tons, down 2.73 tons year - on - year [94][126]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: As of July 3, 2025, estimated visible silicon iron inventory was 13.58 tons, up 1.48 tons week - on - week, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [140]. - Steel mill inventory: In May, the average available days of silicon iron in steel mills was 15.38 days, up 0.18 days month - on - month, still at a relatively low historical level [143]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - This week, the silicon iron futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 6 yuan/ton or - 0.11% and a weekly amplitude of 4.5%. In the short - term, there is obvious pressure around 5500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and not blindly buy at the bottom [146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon manganese and ferrosilicon) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. The supply - side of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July. Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the SM2509 contract closed at 5712, a 0.24% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close. The SF2509 contract closed at 5390, an 0.85% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close [1] 3.2 Important Information - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3993 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 thousand tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.238 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.72 thousand tons; the social inventory was 9.1613 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.62 thousand tons [1] - On July 3, the domestic coking coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. This week, the average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mine samples surveyed by Mysteel was 739 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the clean coal inventory was 4.096 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 535 thousand tons. The coal mine inventory decreased significantly, some pit - mouth coal mines slightly raised their quotes, and the online bidding was also strong, with most coal prices rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Mysteel's statistics on 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises showed that the national capacity utilization rate was 40.34%, an increase of 1.13% from last week; the average daily output was 25730 tons, an increase of 125 tons; the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products (70% of the total) was 126789 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the national silicon manganese output (99% of the weekly supply) was 180110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. On the supply side, the production of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1]

仓单 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 | 品种 | 项目 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5100 | 0 | 0 | 5360 | 主力合约 | 5436 | 166 | 62 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5100 | 0 | 0 | 5400 | 01合约 | 5422 | 176 | 92 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5100 | 0 | 0 | 5430 | 05合约 | 5456 | 176 | 104 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | -20 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5436 | 166 | 62 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -76 | -166 | -62 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5500 | -100 | -100 | | 1-5月差 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a volatile upward trend. Rumors of strict production - restriction measures in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region led to a significant increase in futures prices, especially in the steel market. The static fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, but attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, silicon - iron, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash were all affected by the policy statement of "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". The market sentiment was optimistic, but there are still uncertainties regarding whether over - capacity means backward capacity and how to solve the problem of insufficient downstream demand [6][10][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3065 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (2.064%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (1.753%). The positions of both increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar's apparent demand was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed due to increased production. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated slightly [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 722.50 yuan/ton, up 1.98% (14.00). The position decreased by 6979 hands to 64.79 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output was 242.29 million tons. The terminal demand of five major steel products decreased slightly. Port inventory and port clearance increased, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Price**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) rose 1.99% to 5726 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) rose 3.15% to 5436 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is optimistic due to policy expectations. However, caution is needed for long - position follow - up, and short - position speculation should be on the sidelines. Enterprises with hedging profit margins can consider appropriate hedging [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2509) rose 5.73% to 8210 yuan/ton. The spot price also increased [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend since November 2024. Although it showed strength, it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the downward trend line. Similar to other commodities, there are uncertainties in the market, and hedging can be considered for enterprises with profit margins [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The short - position should avoid and wait and see due to policy - driven price rebounds [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand continued to decline, but the supply - demand margin improved slightly. It is expected to rebound following the glass [16].

钢材：缺乏持续驱动，重回区间运行 资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3016 | 1 | 热卷01 | 3136 | 8 | | 螺纹05 | 3022 | 2 | 热卷05 | 3134 | 5 | | 螺纹10 | 3003 | ୧ | 热卷10 | 3136 | 13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2900 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2100 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3100 | -30 | 热卷:天津 | 3110 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3120 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3200 | O | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3160 | 1 0 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3210 | -20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3180 | 0 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3160 | ...

价格 供应 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：主力合约：收盘价（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：基差（江苏）（钢联口径） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅锰主力月 内蒙基差（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint presented in the given reports 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions are as follows: 5130 in Ningxia, 5150 in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai, and 5100 in Shaanxi. The latest prices of 75 silicon iron are 5600 in Shaanxi. The prices of silicon iron in different regions and contracts show different daily and weekly changes [1][3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The latest prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions are: 5550 in Inner Mongolia, 5510 in Ningxia, 5500 in Guangxi, 5450 in Guizhou and Yunnan. The prices also have different daily and weekly changes [1]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity - share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the procurement price and quantity of 6517 silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group on a monthly basis [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data involve the estimated monthly production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export quantity of silicon iron in China from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - related data include the estimated demand for silicon manganese in China (Steel Union's caliber) and the export quantity of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China for silicon iron from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including weekly inventory in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), daily CZCE silicon iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions (East China, South China, North China) [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory - related data include daily CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, warehouse receipts + effective inventory, and the average available days of inventory in China, as well as the weekly inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - profit data involve the electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi, the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of silicon manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North China, South China) from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract and the profit of Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the disk [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall black market, it is recommended to adopt a bearish mindset and try shorting on rebounds due to weak macro and fundamental drivers, cautious market sentiment, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [9] - Iron ore is expected to run strongly in the short term as it has strong demand resilience. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 710 - 740 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 93 - 97 US dollars/ton [10] - Coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short term as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply - surplus pressure to some extent [11] - Ferroalloys are expected to run weakly in a narrow range. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight and its supply - demand pattern is slightly better [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various varieties in the black industry chain showed different changes from June 20 to June 27, 2025. For example, the closing price of the rebar RB2510 futures contract rose by 0.10% to 2995 yuan/ton, and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.32% to 3080 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Overall Black Market**: The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased slightly, while the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to be bearish [9] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in a seasonal increase, but the demand is strong with high daily iron - water production. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply pressure, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [11] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese is loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a narrow range [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 217.84 tons, the apparent demand was 219.91 tons, the total inventory was 549.00 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.07 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing also showed different changes [14][21][33] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 327.24 tons, the apparent demand was 326.25 tons, the total inventory was 341.16 tons, and the inventory increased by 0.99 tons. The basis in Shanghai also changed [26][30][40] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory in 45 ports increased by 36.07 tons to 13930.23 tons last week. The inventory and consumption of 247 steel mills' imported ore, as well as the global shipping volume, also had corresponding changes [42][53][70] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The total inventory of coke decreased by 12.02 tons to 940.89 tons last week, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 39.64 tons to 2570.76 tons. The profitability, production capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of independent coking enterprises also changed [109][116][122] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week. The production, demand, inventory, and import volume of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon also had different changes [141][145][158]