美股研究报告 2026年3月20日 美股研究报告 | 个股报告 2026 年 3 月 20 日 作者 高级策略分析师 艾德证券期货研究部 联络电话：86 13760421136 电邮地址：liuzongwu@eddid.com.hk 华尔街如何看英伟达？ 刘宗武（HKSFC CE No.:BSJ488） 英伟达现今已横盘近三个季度，股价年初至今虽然勉强跑赢大盘，却远 落后于市场预期，是什么原因造成的？我们尝试换一个角度，透过观察 华尔街的一致预期来看看市场是如何看待英伟达的价格？ 请参阅正文后面的免责声明及重要披露 1 / 9 | 图表 | | 1 ：英伟达市值占全球 GDP | 比重约 | 2.2% | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 ：英伟达市值占美国 | | GDP 比重约 | 14.4% | 3 | | 图表 | ：英伟达在标普 500 3 | | 指数中权重 | 6.9% | 3 | | 图表 | 4 ：过去两年英伟达日均成交额 | | 349 | 亿 3 | | | | 超预期，2023-2024 | | 财年季度收入超预期平均 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company’s IPO [3]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in the silicon carbide (SiC) epitaxy industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of SiC epitaxial chips and components used in semiconductor devices [2]. - The company’s SiC epitaxial chips are utilized in power devices, which have widespread applications in electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, renewable energy, and energy storage systems [2]. - According to a report by ZhiShi Consulting, the company is the largest supplier of SiC epitaxy by sales volume since 2023, with a market share exceeding 30% in 2024 [2]. - The global market for SiC power semiconductor devices is projected to grow significantly, with sales increasing from USD 600 million in 2020 to USD 2.6 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.4% [2]. - By 2029, the sales of SiC power semiconductor devices are expected to reach USD 13.6 billion, with a CAGR of 39.9% from 2024 to 2029 [2]. - The penetration rate of SiC power semiconductor devices in the global power semiconductor market is anticipated to rise from 1.3% in 2020 to 4.9% in 2024, and further to 17.1% by 2029 [2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, as well as for the nine months ending September 30, 2024, are projected to be RMB 440.7 million, RMB 1,142.5 million, RMB 974.3 million, RMB 808.3 million, and RMB 535.1 million respectively [3]. - The net profit for the same periods is expected to be RMB 127.5 million, RMB 107.5 million, RMB 165.1 million, RMB 118.4 million, and RMB 21.1 million respectively [3]. - Starting in 2024, the company's financial performance is anticipated to be negatively impacted by competitive market pressures leading to price declines and weakened demand in downstream markets [3]. - The company's Hong Kong IPO price is set at HKD 76.26 per share, corresponding to a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 29.3 times for 2024, which is considered to be in the middle range within the industry [3].

Core Insights - McKinsey's report identifies 18 industry sectors likely to reshape the global business landscape, predicting revenues of $29 trillion to $48 trillion by 2040, contributing 18-34% to global GDP growth [2] E-commerce - By 2040, e-commerce's share of global retail revenue is expected to rise to 27%-38%, up from approximately 20% currently [3] - Growth drivers include market expansion in developing countries and new product categories in developed nations, such as healthcare and emotionally valuable products [4] - Significant investments are anticipated in customer acquisition and last-mile delivery across e-commerce platforms [5] Electric Vehicles - Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 50% of global passenger car sales by 2040 [6] - Breakthroughs in battery technology and smart algorithms will significantly influence this sector, prompting increased R&D investments from both EV manufacturers and traditional automakers [7] Cloud Services - The demand for higher storage and computing capabilities is rising as the world becomes more interconnected, particularly with the advent of new AI products requiring substantial computational power [9] - The cloud services industry experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2005 to 2020, with similar growth expected in the coming decades [10] Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6%-8% over the next decade, driven by demand across various sectors including computing, data storage, automotive, and industrial electronics [11] AI Software Services - The rapid development of AI has led to its classification as a distinct sector, with increasing numbers of users adopting AI assistants [12] - Companies in the AI space are engaged in a competitive race to develop advanced foundational models and applications [13] Digital Advertising - Digital advertising is expanding in value as the global middle class increases and internet usage rises, with algorithms improving the ability to target customers and track advertising costs [14] - Platforms must invest heavily to create engaging content to capture user attention amid competition [15] Streaming Video - Investment in customer acquisition and content production is rising, prompting streaming platforms to seek new revenue models [17] - Developing countries are expected to contribute to growth in subscription and advertising revenue, with projections indicating over 1 billion households subscribing to long-form video services by 2040 [18] Shared Autonomous Vehicles - The advent of autonomous driving technology may reduce the need for personal vehicle ownership, with shared autonomous vehicles projected to account for 25%-51% of shared mobility revenue by 2040 [19][20] Space Economy - The world is on the brink of entering a space economy era, with advancements in reusable rocket technology changing the aerospace industry [21][22] Cybersecurity - Cybercrime caused direct economic losses of approximately $950 billion in 2020, with indirect losses potentially reaching $4-6 trillion [24] - Increasing awareness of cybersecurity has led companies to enhance their investments in this area [25] Batteries - Significant advancements in battery technology have tripled energy density over the past few decades, with demand driven by the energy transition, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics [26][27] - By 2040, electric vehicles are expected to account for over 80% of the battery market [28] Video Games - By 2030, an estimated 40% of the global population may become video game players, driven by new mobile and cloud gaming models [30] - Free-to-play games are generating substantial revenue, with budgets for AAA games reaching $200 million for releases in 2025 [32] Robotics - The integration of AI with robotics is expected to lead to significant advancements, with humanoid robots being viewed as potential "ultimate intelligent agents" [33][34] Industrial and Consumer Biotechnology - Breakthroughs in gene editing and other technologies are accelerating the application of biotechnology in agriculture, alternative proteins, consumer products, and biomaterials [37] Modular Construction - Modular construction methods, which involve prefabricating building components for on-site assembly, can significantly enhance construction efficiency [38] Nuclear Fission Power - The development of safer, smaller modular reactors presents opportunities for supplementing renewable energy sources [39] Air Traffic - Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and delivery drones are poised to revolutionize air traffic, although regulatory progress remains a key factor [41] Obesity Treatment Drugs - The prevalence of obesity is projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2035, indicating a potential market for effective weight loss products [43]

Core Viewpoint - Melexis, a European semiconductor company, has established a wholly-owned enterprise in Shanghai, marking a significant milestone in its 20-year journey in China [1][3]. Group 1: Localization Strategy - The establishment of the wholly-owned entity was a planned move, with discussions and preparations ongoing for five years [4]. - Melexis is currently in the third phase of its localization strategy, focusing on end-to-end integration in China, with significant progress already made in localizing its supply chain [6]. - The company has initiated partnerships with local wafer manufacturers to develop products tailored for the Chinese market, with production expected to start in Q3 2026 [6]. Group 2: Organizational Structure - Melexis has restructured its organizational framework, placing its China operations at the center, allowing for greater decision-making autonomy [7]. - The CEO emphasized the importance of local teams having the authority to make strategic decisions, addressing the inherent disadvantages of remote management from Europe [7][9]. Group 3: Automotive Sector - The automotive sector accounts for over 80% of Melexis's global sales, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% over the past five years, surpassing industry averages [10]. - Melexis ships approximately 2 billion chips annually, with each new vehicle averaging around 22 Melexis chips, and up to 145 chips for high-end hybrid models [12]. - The rise of electric vehicles, which use 1.5 times more chips than traditional vehicles, presents significant growth opportunities for Melexis [12]. Group 4: Robotics Sector - Robotics is emerging as a new focus area for Melexis, with the development of tactile sensors for robotic applications [14]. - The tactile sensor technology is crucial for safe interactions, akin to human skin, and is designed specifically for robotic applications [16]. - A dedicated robotics team has been established in China to cater to local startups and their engineering needs, enhancing product delivery and support [17]. Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - Melexis's growth trajectory in China aligns with the broader semiconductor industry's evolution, transitioning from a sales office to a fully-fledged entity with local teams [18]. - By 2024, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to contribute approximately 60% of Melexis's total revenue, with China accounting for nearly half of that [18]. - The timing of Melexis's focus on automotive electrification and robotics commercialization is seen as a critical advantage in the current market landscape [19].

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology has reported that the profit margins for traditional DRAM, including DDR5, have recently surpassed those of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), reflecting the impact of long-term contract structures and supply constraints [1][2] Group 1: Profit Margin Dynamics - The profit margins for non-HBM products are currently higher than those for HBM, indicating a shift in profitability within the memory market [1] - HBM's supply is increasingly constrained by long-term agreements, which limit manufacturers' ability to capitalize on rapid price increases [2] - Traditional DRAM is benefiting from strong demand and limited supply, with average DRAM prices recently rising over 60%, allowing for real-time profit margin reflection [2] Group 2: Strategic Product Management - Micron is managing its product portfolio cautiously in response to the growing demand for AI in data centers, rather than solely focusing on profit-driven strategies [2][3] - A balanced approach is necessary to meet customer needs, particularly in AI server deployments, where both HBM and DDR5 DRAM are required [3] - The company aims for comprehensive growth across its data center product offerings, including HBM, DDR5, low-power DRAM, SODIMM, and SSDs [3] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Micron's long-term strategy focuses on maintaining a diversified supplier position across multiple industries, which is seen as a key driver for the company's performance and industry growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Longxun Co., Ltd. (688486.SH), is engaged in deep collaborative design with NVIDIA in the automotive electronics and high-end display sectors, with some products already in mass production, leading to continuous synergy effects [1] Group 1: Company Collaboration and Product Development - The company focuses on creating efficient and stable data processing and interconnection solutions for smart terminals, related devices, and AI applications [1] - The collaboration with NVIDIA enhances the company's capabilities in high-bandwidth SerDes, high-speed interface protocol processing, data encryption, and high-definition audio-video processing and display driving [1] - The company's products ensure efficient data transmission and processing, facilitating smooth interaction between computing, storage, and display units [1] Group 2: Market Position and Applications - The company's technology is widely applied in smart visual terminals, smart automotive systems, AR/VR devices, and AI and high-performance computing scenarios [1] - By integrating technologies such as high-definition video processing, intelligent perception, and human-computer interaction, the company's chips provide a solid technical foundation for next-generation edge AI applications [1] - According to data from Sullivan, the company ranks first among mainland Chinese enterprises and is among the top five globally in the video bridge chip sector based on projected revenue for 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated economic conditions, with rising prices in the oil and chemical chain, an upward shift in emerging technology sectors, and strong growth in travel and consumer goods in the first quarter [1][2]. Group 2 - The oil chain continues to see price increases due to disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil futures settling at a +11.3% increase as of March 13, and domestic chemical prices rising by +12.5% [2]. - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, show significant growth, with South Korea's semiconductor exports increasing by +40.0% year-on-year as of February 2026, and domestic machinery exports rising by +27.1% [3]. - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a slight decline, with real estate transactions in 30 major cities down by -3.8% year-on-year, while tourism remains strong, evidenced by a +281.9% increase in visitor numbers at Shanghai Disneyland [4]. Group 3 - Passenger transport volume in major cities has increased by +5.5% year-on-year, indicating robust travel activity, while freight transport also shows growth with national road and rail freight volumes up by +0.6% and +4.3% respectively [4].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.88%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.48% [1] - The lithium battery sector showed resilience, with CATL rising over 8%, and companies like Shuangdeng Co., Zhongxin Innovation, and Ganfeng Lithium increasing by more than 5% [1] - Semiconductor and chip stocks declined, with SMIC and Shanghai Fudan both down over 4%, and companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Huahong Semiconductor also experiencing losses [1] Stock Performance - Notable declines in semiconductor stocks include: - SMIC down 4.77% at 56.900c - Shanghai Fudan down 4.32% at 42.040c - Zhaoyi Innovation down 3.18% at 420.000c [2] - Tech stocks also faced downturns, with Xiaomi Group falling over 8% and XPeng Motors down over 5%, alongside declines in Kuaishou, Meituan, and JD.com [2]

Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 18.046 billion, representing a growth of 17.56% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY -276 million, with non-recurring losses amounting to CNY -439.9 million, leading to a net profit of CNY 163 million after excluding non-recurring items, a decrease of 62.78% year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 668 million, down 28.88% from the previous year [2] - By the end of 2025, total assets reached CNY 11.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43%, while net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.85% to CNY 1.576 billion [2] Product Sales and Market Outlook - In 2025, the company sold 1,829.16 tons of photovoltaic conductive paste, maintaining a leading position in the industry, with expectations for high copper paste sales to reach around 100 tons in 2026 [3] - The storage chip business generated approximately CNY 500 million in revenue, with a shipment volume of nearly 20 million units in 2025 and a target of 30-50 million units for 2026 [4] - The company is advancing the development of TOPCon copper-based low-silver metallization paste, with high copper paste technology being more mature and entering large-scale production in 2026 [5] - The company is monitoring the domestic space photovoltaic market, focusing on traditional gallium arsenide technology while developing silicon photovoltaic technology [6] Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The company ensures supply chain stability through an integrated approach to application development, wafer sorting, and chip packaging, utilizing diverse procurement channels [7] - In North America, the company has established a strong market presence and is in continuous engagement with new capacity investment entities, positioning itself for a leading market share [8] - The company has achieved a global production capacity layout to meet high-quality and timely delivery demands, with plans to expand production capacity in North America [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.39% to 4006.55 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.02% [1] - The Hang Seng Index also saw a sharp drop of 2.02%, closing at 25500.58 points, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.19% [1][5] - In the external market, major European indices closed lower, and the US indices also saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones down by 0.44% to 46021.43 points [1][5] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates, with President Christine Lagarde stating that the bank is prepared to respond to the risks posed by the ongoing war [8][14] - The ECB warned that the conflict in the Middle East is accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth, indicating a commitment to stabilize inflation around the 2% target [14] - The ECB's projections suggest that inflation could peak at 6.3% in 2027 under severe scenarios related to the conflict [14] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would no longer target Iranian energy facilities and would assist the US in attempting to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [8][14] - Netanyahu claimed that Iran is no longer capable of uranium enrichment or missile manufacturing, suggesting that the war would end sooner than expected [8][14] Group 4: Economic Indicators - China's fiscal expenditure in January-February recorded the fastest growth since 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 6%, while total fiscal revenue fell by 1.4%, leading to a deficit exceeding 1 trillion yuan [8][14] - The increase in fiscal spending is seen as a measure to support the economy amid rising external uncertainties [14]