1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel products are expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The demand for rebar has gradually weakened, supply remains high, and cost support has diminished [1]. - Iron ore is predicted to show a weak and volatile trend. Global shipments have slightly decreased, iron - water production has declined, and inventories are being depleted [1]. - Coking coal is likely to operate with a weak and volatile pattern. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, demand from the steel industry is weak, and steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts for coke [1]. - Coke is expected to have a weak and volatile performance. Raw - material prices have dropped, steel prices are weak, and steel mills have started a second - round price cut for coke [1]. - Manganese silicon is forecasted to run weakly. Terminal demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with decreasing prices [1]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to continue its weak operation. Terminal demand is relatively weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel - tender prices are falling [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices fell, and demand weakened while supply remained high. Cost support from coke price cuts is expected to weaken, leading to a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2509 closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. Global shipments decreased slightly, with different trends in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions. Iron - water production dropped, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in some areas fell. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, and demand from the steel industry is weak due to price cuts for coke, resulting in a weak and volatile outlook [1]. - **Coke**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 1364 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices at ports fell. Raw - material prices dropped, and steel mills initiated a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a weak and volatile trend [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price closed at 5616 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with falling prices, so it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5452 yuan/ton, down 1.73%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and steel - tender prices are falling, leading to a weak operation [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various commodities showed different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also had corresponding changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various commodities in different regions changed, for example, rebar prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [2]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit changed, as well as spreads like the coil - rebar spread and coke - iron ore ratio [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over different time periods [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [24][28][30][32][33][35]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [38][40][42]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over different time periods [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [51]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading and a CFA Level 2 pass [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black metal market is currently in a state of weak price drive, with a strong expectation of oversupply. The core logic of the black metal sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply and the upstream's concession to the downstream, leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. Different sub - sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [4][5][7] Summary by Related Sections Steel - On May 27, the prices of both far - month and near - month steel futures contracts were down. The spot trade volume of building materials increased slightly, but the market was still weak. The static supply - demand structure is healthy, but there is a strong oversupply expectation. The price drive is weak, and the time for production reduction may be postponed. The idea of rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profit is still necessary [2][4] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the second round of price cuts for coking coal and coke is expected to land soon. The port metallurgical coke trade price and coking coal prices are falling. In the futures market, the black chain index continues to decline. The trading logic is that the upstream concedes to the downstream due to loose furnace material supply. A short - selling strategy is maintained, but attention should be paid to the cost and price relationship at the current position [5] Ferroalloys - There have been many production cut news for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon is in short supply and the rebound may continue, while silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate. The cost is expected to decline slightly. The pattern of overseas and domestic export rush will continue to drive actual demand. Previous long positions in ferrosilicon and long - short spreads of double - silicon can be held [7] Iron Ore - The market is less sensitive to the news of production restrictions. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate slightly in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the steel mills' spontaneous production reduction may occur, and it is more likely that steel is weaker than iron ore [8] Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: On May 27, the far - month contracts of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.31% to - 1.70%. The near - month contracts also declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.12% to - 1.76%. The cross - month spreads and various spreads/price ratios/profits also changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all declined on May 27. The basis of different varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall black - series commodity futures declined on May 27. The steel price continued to move down, and the market sentiment was pessimistic due to the second - round proposed price cut of coke. The supply of raw coal was strong while the demand was weak, and the market participants were in a wait - and - see state. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Overview - On May 27, the black - series commodity futures declined. The rebar closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 1.33%; the iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke continued to fall [1] Market Analysis - The steel price continued to decline, and the steel mills proposed a second - round price cut of coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The coke futures price hit a 9 - year low, and the coking coal futures price rebounded after an early - morning decline. After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises turned negative. Both coking and steel enterprises had a negative attitude towards purchasing raw coal, and the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises decreased by 2.17% to 865.73 million tons. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 3% to 86.3%, the raw coal inventory increased by 18 million tons to 624.8 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 37.1 million tons to 447.5 million tons. The trading volume of coking coal online auctions decreased, with a flow - auction ratio of 51.9%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [1] Investment Suggestions - For iron ore, pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. For rebar, investors should take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. For hot - rolled coil, investors should take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The market supply - demand relationship had no obvious change, and the market sentiment was weak under the expectation of the second - round price cut of coke. The terminal market was in a wait - and - see state, and the seasonal demand was weak. The coking coal futures were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]

【5 月 27 日，国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘绿！】截至目前，铁矿石主力下跌 2.18%，报 695.50 元/ 吨。螺纹钢主力下跌 1.36%，报 2976.00 元/吨。热卷主力下跌 1.46%，报 3107.00 元/吨。锰硅主力下跌 1.37%，报 5608.00 元/吨。5 月 27 日黑色金属期货价格行情如下：螺纹钢开盘价 3010.00 元，昨收价 3004.00 元，昨结价 3017.00 元。铁矿石开盘价 706.00 元，昨收价 706.50 元，昨结价 711.00 元。不锈钢 开盘价 12860.00 元，昨收价 12875.00 元，昨结价 12880.00 元。热卷开盘价 3139.00 元，昨收价 3138.00 元，昨结价 3153.00 元。线材开盘价 3268.00 元，昨收价 3253.00 元，昨结价 3241.00 元。硅铁开盘价 5500.00 元，昨收价 5506.00 元，昨结价 5548.00 元。锰硅开盘价 5662.00 元，昨收价 5668.00 元，昨结 价 5686.00 元。5 月 26 日黑色金属仓单数据显示：螺纹钢仓库期货仓单 41979 吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon manganese, and ferrosilicon is under pressure, with weak demand expectations and fluctuating prices. While there are signs of supply-demand imbalances and negative feedback, the market should not be overly bearish considering the steel sentiment [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. Hot-rolled coil's supply and demand both dropped, and inventory also decreased at a slower pace. Iron ore production is still relatively high, and the supply pressure is large. The negative feedback expectation keeps fermenting. Domestic demand is weak, and the demand expectation is pessimistic. The market sentiment is low, and the market is weak but may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market continued to correct today. The global shipment of iron ore decreased compared with the previous period and was weaker than the same period last year. The arrival volume in China decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to decline. Terminal demand entered the off-season, and the iron ore production decreased slightly last week. It is expected that the short-term reduction of iron ore production is limited. Overall, the supply and demand of iron ore have a certain marginal weakening pressure, and the macro-level benefits have been reflected in the previous rebound. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Coke - Coke prices continued to decline. Iron ore production decreased slightly. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, but there were still profits, so the daily coke production remained at a relatively high level this year. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders did not make any purchases. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to decline. The production of coking coal mines remained at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut-down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, and the transaction price continued to decline. The terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the inventory pressure at the production end continued to accumulate rapidly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the iron ore production of downstream enterprises continued to decline slightly. The sustainability of further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal remains at a significant discount, and the delivery of the 2505 contract has been completed. Considering the steel sentiment, it should not be overly bearish [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices dropped significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill ended, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts recently, the weekly production data increased slightly. It is judged that the current production level has led to a decrease in inventory, and the fundamentals have improved slightly. According to the expected arrival data of manganese ore, about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly, and the supply of ferrosilicon manganese increased slightly. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. The impact of tariffs should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production continued to decline slightly. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal remained basically the same, and the demand remained stable at a high level. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, and the market transaction level was average. The on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. The tariff trend should be continuously monitored. Affected by the overall black market, the price remains weak [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on May 26, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide data support for investors' trading decisions [1][5][15][24][40][47] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base difference of power coal was - 189.4 yuan/ton on May 19 and - 190.4 yuan/ton from May 20 to May 23; the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Difference and Ratio Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base difference of INE crude oil ranged from - 11.31 to - 5.39 yuan/ton; the base difference of fuel oil was 101.32 yuan/ton on May 22, and other data were not provided; the ratio of crude oil to asphalt ranged from 0.1290 to 0.1329 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Difference Data**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., the base differences showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025. For example, the base difference of natural rubber was - 5 yuan/ton on May 19 and 165 yuan/ton on May 23 [11] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of various chemical products, such as the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May, also had different values. For example, the difference between May - January of natural rubber was 90 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety differences of various chemical products, such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed different values. For example, the base difference of rebar was 111.0 yuan/ton on May 19 and 114.0 yuan/ton on May 23 [16] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, such as the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May, also had different values [16] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, etc., also showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [16] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the domestic market showed different values. For example, the base difference of copper was 310 yuan/ton on May 19 and 350 yuan/ton on May 23 [25] - **LME Data**: On May 23, 2025, the LME premium or discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals were provided [31] London Market - **LME Base Difference, Shanghai - London Ratio, and Import Profit and Loss Data**: Data on LME base difference, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals were presented [31] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of various agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn showed different values [40] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of various agricultural products, such as the differences between May - January, September - January, and September - May, also had different values [40] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety data such as the ratio of soybeans to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, etc., also showed different values from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [40] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Difference Data**: From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the base differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed different values. For example, the base difference of CSI 300 was 33.95 on May 19 and 36.07 on May 23 [48] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period differences of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, such as the differences between the next - month and the current - month, the current - quarter and the current - month, etc., also had different values [48]

Core Insights - The monitoring of prices for 50 key production materials across nine categories indicates that in mid-May 2025, 24 products saw price increases, 24 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Key Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 2.5 yuan per ton (0.1%), while ordinary medium plates decreased by 9.4 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [2]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, aluminum ingot prices rose by 487.9 yuan per ton (2.5%), while zinc ingot prices fell by 75.0 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [2]. - Chemical products showed significant price increases, with pure benzene rising by 520.6 yuan per ton (9.3%) and styrene increasing by 583.3 yuan per ton (8.1%) [2]. - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices dropped by 49.2 yuan per ton (-1.1%), while diesel prices increased slightly by 7.9 yuan per ton (0.1%) [2]. - Coal prices generally decreased, with ordinary mixed coal dropping by 21.9 yuan per ton (-4.3%) [2]. Group 2: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, the price of rice increased by 27.9 yuan per ton (0.7%), while the price of soybeans rose by 50.2 yuan per ton (1.2%) [3]. - Fertilizer prices showed mixed results, with urea increasing by 19.9 yuan per ton (1.0%), while compound fertilizer prices fell by 12.1 yuan per ton (-0.4%) [3]. - The price of natural rubber rose by 289.6 yuan per ton (2.0%), indicating a positive trend in the forestry sector [3]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The price monitoring encompasses over 2,000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [6]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, as well as inquiries via phone, instant messaging, and email [7]. - The price changes are categorized based on percentage fluctuations, with a total of 50 products monitored across nine categories [8].

盖色金属数据日报 | 2025/05/23 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | 【铁矿石】产业定价为主 目前的综合关税仍然处于50%左右的高位。基于美国贸易战反复的行为下,暂时仅看黑色板块的反弹。目前阶段市场确实需 要考虑旺季结束后,钢材表需见顶回落,高铁水下库存的情况。本期铁水出现延续小幅下滑,但整体仍处于高位,钢厂利 不错的情况下,短期想要看到铁水的快速下滑是比较困难的。预期高铁水在5月份可以持续,到港稳定的情况下,港口库存 处于窄幅波动。不考虑限产因素的话,5月份炉料端并不会有额外的故事可以讲,铁矿依然处于震荡。5月之后,若钢材基 市场需要钢厂的自发性减产行为出现,那钢厂的利润的收缩则是必要条件,个人更偏向于材弱于矿。 【钢材】周度数据持稳,重点关注煤炭何时 ...