| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.07） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3061 -21 -0.68% 3180 119 | | 热卷 | 3191 -20 -0.62% 3260 69 | | 铁矿 | 731 -5 -0.68% 730 -1 | | 焦煤 | 835 -15 -1.76% 880 45 | | 焦炭 | 1422.5 -13.5 -0.94% 1182 -240.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体下跌。螺纹收于3061元/吨，跌幅0.68%；热卷主力合 | | | 约收于3191元/吨，下跌0.62%；铁矿今日主力合约收于731元/吨；双焦今天继 | | | 续下跌。 | | | 市场分析 | | | 247家钢厂日均铁水产量仍处于绝对高位水平，上周回落至4月末以来最低位 | | | 240.85万吨。另外七八月传统高温多雨天气影响，下游实际需求增量或有限， | | | 部分钢厂有减产意向，钢厂仍将以销定产为主，采购情绪整体偏谨慎。 | | | 焦炭价格累计下跌四轮后，原料煤并未跟跌 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of black commodity futures today was average. The supply - side favorable sentiment pushed up the price center of the steel futures market this week, but downstream demand may be limited due to weather, and some steel mills have the intention to cut production. The coking coal and coke markets have complex supply - demand situations, and the market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the coking coal futures will fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - The closing price of rebar was 3072 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 732.5 yuan/ton; the prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly [1] Market Analysis - Steel futures broke through the narrow - range shock this week, with the price center rising nearly 100 points due to supply - side sentiment. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since late April but still at a high level. Downstream demand may be limited in July and August, and steel mills will mainly produce according to sales [1] - After four rounds of coke price cuts, raw coal prices rose, squeezing coke enterprise profits. The profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants dropped to - 52 yuan/ton. Some coking plants cut production, and the inventory of independent coking plants and ports decreased, while steel mill inventory increased. Some coking plants intend to raise prices, and the follow - up depends on pig iron output and cost [1] - The total inventory of coking coal increased by 0.93% to 257.209 million tons this week. The inventory structure improved, with coal mines and coal - washing plants reducing inventory, and ports and steel mills increasing inventory. The prices of various coking coal types rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal electronic auction improved, but the third - quarter long - term contract price is expected to drop, and increased imports will impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors should take a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors should take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the price stabilizes and the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1] Summary - The supply - demand structure has not reached a substantial turning point, and short - term structural relief may not support the continuous rise of futures prices. The market faces a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the coking coal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]

盖色金属数据日报 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(石轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 60-6700 10-570 as 2008 2008 2008 200 | 热卷基差(右轴) = 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75r 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 【钢材】续涨动能尚可,周数据好转也添了一点油 4000 600 周四黑色板块依然算是坚挺,盘面延续增仓反弹,期盘续涨动能尚可;钢联周度数据显示淡季累库幅度和需求掉的节奏都没 3000 有失速,暂时托住了市场的信心。"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随,期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货 400 成交及投机需求的放量,观察持续性;我们更倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自 2000 利好并不能持续太久。值得关注的是,黑色板块品种的基差近期持续收缩, ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 二、能源化工 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 45 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 3 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 ADP 就业不及预期，美越或将达成贸易 协议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-03 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） ADP 就业不及预期 最新的 ADP 就业远不及预期，但是市场对此反应较为平淡，美 元指数短期反弹。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 合 今年 8000 亿"两重"项目清单全部下达完毕 晨 报 "反内卷"和海洋经济板块出现明显上涨，而军工股则有所回 落。股指成交缩量窄幅震荡。对于"反内卷"需要注意其更多 指向中下游行业以及部分新兴行业而非简单地上游行业。 黑色金属（动力煤） 7 月 2 日北港市场动力煤报价暂稳 高温持续下，电厂日耗维持季节性高位，短期煤价有所企稳。7 月初，前期安监环保影响陆续环节。内蒙产区已经陆续放开。 整体煤价预计在夏季维持稳定。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：6 月份棕榈油进口量增加 61%至 95.3 万吨 印度 6 月棕榈油进口大幅增长，参议院禁止北美以外燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。 特朗普称美越达成贸易协议 小非农意外爆冷，但三大股指表现维持强势，市场继续等待周 四晚公布的非农数据。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 有色金 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures showed strong performance on July 2nd. The alloy supply - demand pattern has no significant change, and the stable cost supports the futures price. The short - term double - silicon futures may be mainly driven by sector sentiment, and future macro - policy trends need to be focused on [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 2nd, black - series commodity futures were strong. The closing price of rebar was 3065 yuan/ton, up 2.61%; hot - rolled coil's main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 2.24%; iron ore's main contract closed at 722.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke rose by over 3% [1]. Market Analysis - **Demand**: The steel production restriction news in Tangshan had a certain negative impact on the alloy sentiment, but the overall impact on production was limited. The long - process steel mills had good profitability, with low willingness to cut production. The short - term rigid demand for alloys remained resilient, supporting the double - silicon futures prices [1]. - **Supply**: For ferromanganese, the northern production area maintained high - level operation, and the southern area had both production increase and decrease. The ferromanganese production had increased slightly for several weeks, which might restrict the futures and spot prices. For ferrosilicon, the profit margin was shrinking, the production was relatively stable at a low level, which might support the futures market. [1] - **Cost**: For ferromanganese, the coking coal price was stable, but there was an expectation of looser production. The manganese ore market was firm, and the cost was slightly bullish. For ferrosilicon, the downstream demand for semi - coke was weak, but the cost still provided support, and the short - term price might remain stable with limited driving effect on the futures [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors should take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Investors should take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Double - coking**: Pay attention to the post - decline stabilization and oscillation market or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation phase. The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and environmental protection restrictions have increased, which has a certain boost to market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. There are both positive and negative factors in supply, demand, and inventory [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in an oscillatory manner. The supply and demand sides are affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, steel prices, and cost pressures [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is likely to experience weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, although the cost side has some support [1][3]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to operate weakly and oscillate. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price drivers are limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 48,100 lots in positions. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume remained low. Environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan may affect production, and the short - term disk is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 708.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (0.98%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 340,000 lots and a decrease of 14,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices showed mixed trends. Supply decreased slightly, demand (blast furnace operating rate) remained flat while iron - water production increased, and inventory showed different trends. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,806 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply is expected to be more relaxed as environmental inspections end, and demand may be affected by environmental protection in some areas. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1388.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.1%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,264 lots in positions. Spot prices in ports increased. Supply was affected by environmental protection and cost pressures, and demand was supported by blast - furnace operations but also faced negative feedback from the weak terminal market. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.95% month - on - month, with a decrease of 7,716 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production has been increasing for six consecutive weeks, demand is still at a low level, and the cost side has some support. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5270 yuan/ton, down 2.04% month - on - month, with an increase of 5,156 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production remained stable at a low level, demand was at a historical low, and the price drivers were limited during the off - season. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different trends, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also showed different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract and 01 - contract of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties changed, including rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou; hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou; and various iron - ore powders [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Different profit indicators (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spread indicators (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc.) showed different changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Showed the basis trends of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presented the spread trends of inter - period contracts of different varieties, such as the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [27][29][31][34][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trends of inter - variety contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: Showed the profit trends of the rebar main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

Group 1: Report Summary of Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the off - season, market participants worry that the demand for the black sector will decline, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector [6]. - Short - term production restrictions have a more obvious impact on steel. If short - term production restrictions cannot be sustained, the positive impact on profits and steel prices will not last long [6]. - The basis of black sector varieties that were previously at a large futures discount has been rapidly repaired recently, with coking coal and coke showing futures premiums and iron ore futures approaching parity [6]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term disturbances in coal mine production in July have subsided. If the overall situation of coal mine resumption changes little, the phased high of the coking coal and coke futures may have been reached [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly fluctuate following coal prices. Ferrosilicon's supply has a slight increase, and demand is okay in the short - term. Silicomanganese's supply continues to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [6]. - For iron ore, short - term attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restrictions on molten iron and whether the production restriction wave will spread to other regions. Currently, iron ore is in a shock range [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On July 1st, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3016 yuan/ton with a decline of 7 yuan (- 0.23%), HC2601 at 3136 yuan/ton with a decline of 4 yuan (- 0.13%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton with a decline of 6 yuan (- 0.20%), HC2510 at 3136 yuan/ton with an increase of 2 yuan (0.06%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also showed different changes on July 1st. For example, the cross - month spread of RB2510 - 2601 was - 13 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - On July 1st, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3100 yuan/ton with a decline of 40 yuan, Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 yuan, etc. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions also had different changes [2]. Industry Analysis - **Steel**: Short - term production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to a rebound in the virtual profit of the futures market on Tuesday. If the production restrictions cannot be sustained, the positive impact on profits and steel prices will be short - lived. The basis of steel varieties has been rapidly repaired recently [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coking coal is still good, with most prices rising. The supply of coal mines in July is expected to increase. The futures prices of coking coal and coke fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. The market expects stricter environmental production restrictions in the future. If the coal mine resumption situation changes little, the phased high of the coking coal and coke futures may have been reached [6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon's price is greatly affected by coal. Its supply has a slight increase, and demand is okay in the short - term. Silicomanganese's supply continues to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose. Their prices mainly fluctuate following coal and steel [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The news of production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to an expansion of steel mill profits in the futures market. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restrictions on molten iron and whether the production restriction wave will spread to other regions. Currently, iron ore is in a shock range [6]. Investment Suggestions - **Steel**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider entering the market for cash - and - carry arbitrage as the basis approaches the appropriate point. Take profit on short - term long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread at an appropriate time [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For single - side trading, set the previous high as the stop - loss point and establish short positions on rebounds. Industrial customers can take advantage of the premium to conduct selling hedging [6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Buy call options at low prices due to their high price elasticity [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Short at the upper edge of the shock range [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The majority of FOMC voters this year are more inclined to delay interest rate cuts until after July, and attention should be paid to the impact of interest rates on the global environment. China's manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and the economy is showing positive signs. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are at relatively healthy levels. There are no obvious contradictions in the static fundamentals. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery of terminal demand, and the cost - side support for finished product prices [3]. - Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and crude oil prices have fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. In the short term, the improvement in sentiment continues, but from a fundamental perspective, the industry still faces an oversupply situation, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is room for cost reduction, so the downward pressure on prices remains [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.200%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6393 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 48103 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.416%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 586 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 3081 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3180 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was also unchanged at 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the increase in production slowed down the de - stocking pace. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory started to accumulate slightly. Overall, the off - season demand remained weak, and the inventories were at relatively healthy levels [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 708.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.98% (-7.00), and the positions decreased by 13897 lots to 65.49 million lots. The weighted positions were 107.50 million lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 705 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - term arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons. The terminal demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The port throughput and port inventory increased, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate widely [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On July 1, the main contract (SM509) of manganese silicon continued to decline in a narrow range, closing down 0.32% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 166 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, but there is still a risk of price decline [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF509) of ferrosilicon gapped down and broke the upward trend since June, closing down 1.38% at 5270 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5350 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, its trend has weakened again, and there is a risk of further price decline [8][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 1, affected by rumors of production resumption, the main contract (SI2509) of industrial silicon closed down 3.66% at 7765 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 8200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 435 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The price of 421 was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a premium of 235 yuan/ton over the futures main contract [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The industrial silicon market is still facing over - supply and insufficient demand. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see rather than blindly buy at the bottom. During the price rebound, it is advisable to hedge at an appropriate position [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1030 yuan, remaining unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.671 million heavy boxes (-0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1190 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 0.0019 million tons (0.11%) from Thursday. The demand for soda ash continued to decline. Although the supply - demand margin improved slightly, the medium - term supply was still loose, and the inventory pressure was large. It is expected that the futures price will be weak [17].