Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Fanyuan Yuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The thermal coal market shows a pattern of "not weak in the off - season". The escalation of the US - Iran conflict drives up overseas coal prices, causing a significant price inversion between imported and domestic coal. Domestic coal prices stop falling and rebound despite the off - season [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the substitution of thermal power by new energy will continue. Coal demand in the power system will peak and decline during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Supply - side policies aim for stable production and prices, and it is expected that the coal price center will rise this year with support at long - term agreement levels [2]. Summary of Each Section 1. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Price - **Domestic Price**: As of March 20, the 5800 kcal index in Yulin was 609.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Ordos was 531.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 5500 kcal index in Datong was 593.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. At Qinhuangdao Port, the 5500 kcal price was 736.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the 5000 kcal price was 654.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - **Import Price**: The CCI imported 4700 index was 86.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the CCI imported 3800 index was 70.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. 2. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Supply Domestic Production (Weekly) - Fenwei statistics show that from March 12 - 18, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines in the Three - West region was 91.98%, up 1.94 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - Factors affecting coal production capacity in 2026 include the exit of backward production capacity, the handling of uncompleted nuclear - increased production capacity, etc. [16] Domestic Production (Monthly) - In January - February 2026, the national raw coal output was 762.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The top three producing provinces were Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, with a combined output of 541.508 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.90% and accounting for 70.98% of the national total [17]. Seaborne Coal - The arrival volume of imported coal at ports has been continuously weakening [20]. Import (Monthly) - In January - February 2026, the national imported coal was 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In February, the import volume was 30.9427 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.95%, while in January, it was 46.2796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10.82% [27]. - Since 2026, Indonesian coal exports have been sluggish due to policy interferences such as slow RKAB approvals, a planned production quota reduction, and potential export tariff regulations [27]. 3. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Inventory Mine Inventory - The origin inventory increased month - on - month [29]. Port Inventory - The northern ports continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 20, the inventory of northern ports (excluding Huanghua) totaled 25.50 million tons, an increase of 0.94 million tons week - on - week. With the subsequent maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the shipping volume from northern ports will be affected, and the inventory accumulation slope will slow down [2]. 4. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Transportation - The inbound and outbound volumes at ports increased [39]. 5. Thermal Coal Fundamental Data - Demand Power Demand - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants increased, and the inventory was relatively high [41]. - In the next 10 days (March 21 - 30), there will be more rainy days in the Jiangnan region, and the temperature in the central and eastern regions will be relatively high [47]. - In the first two months of this year, China's total social power consumption increased by 6.1% year - on - year [48]. - In January - February, thermal power generation increased by 3.3% year - on - year [51]. - The precipitation in the southwest region is relatively low [53]. Non - power Demand - The demand for building materials and metallurgy is relatively weak, while the demand for chemical coal remains at a high level. This week, the blast furnace operating rate was 79.78% week - on - week, and the cement clinker capacity utilization rate was 55.14% [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1] Core Views - Based on weekly technical indicators, in the commodity futures market, most precious metals and non - ferrous metals show bearish signals, while some black and shipping, energy, and agricultural products show bullish signals; in the financial futures market, most stock index futures show bearish signals, and 2 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, with others being volatile [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver in the precious metals sector show weekly bearish signals. In the non - ferrous sector, alumina shows a bullish signal, while most other varieties like nickel, copper, and aluminum show bearish signals, and lead and polysilicon are volatile [9] - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. This week, the price decreased by 3.77%, the weekly MACD red bar contracted, and the daily MACD showed a death - cross signal. Attention should be paid to the support of the MA60 [13] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon in the black and shipping sector show bullish signals, and the rest are volatile; European container shipping is also volatile [18] - The main contract of rebar is expected to be volatile in the short term. The daily MACD shows a bullish arrangement but the red bar is shortening. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough situation between 3130 - 3150 yuan/ton and the support of the MA60 [22] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, etc. show bullish signals; in the chemical sector, plastics, PVC, etc. show bullish signals, while p - xylene, glass, etc. show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [27] - The main contract of pulp is expected to be volatile in the short term. The monthly MACD shows a bearish arrangement, and the weekly price fluctuates between 5000 - 5500 yuan/ton [31] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Logs, soybeans No.2, rapeseed oil, etc. in the agricultural products sector show bullish signals, while cotton, pigs, and red dates show bearish signals, and the rest are volatile [36] - The main contract of corn is expected to be volatile and rising in the short term. The weekly K - line shows a "cross - line" pattern, and the price fluctuates between 2380 - 2420 yuan/ton [41] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The Shanghai 50 futures show a volatile trend, while the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures show bearish signals [47] - The IC CSI 500 futures have short - term downward pressure. The weekly price dropped by 7.97%, and the daily price broke through the MA60 and approached the MA120 [50] - The IF CSI 300 futures still have short - term downward risks. The weekly price dropped by 3.68%, and the daily price broke through the MA120 [53] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures show bullish signals, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures show volatile trends [59] - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The weekly price moved away from the MA60, and the daily price broke through the original volatile range [63] - The TS 2 - year treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short term. The daily MACD shows a bullish arrangement, and the price runs between the middle and upper rails of the Bollinger Band [66]

天津港锰矿库存周报 (天津振鸿口径) 天津港振鸿锰矿出库:氧化矿(加蓬+澳矿):万 天津港振鸿锰矿库存:氧化矿(加蓬+澳矿):万 天津港振鸿锰矿入库:氧化矿(加蓬+澳矿):万 http ildo Hoto 200 50 55 40 20 150 30 15 100 20 10 50 10 下午前十分早点小吃了一个人都是一个一个人都是一个人 下载 2018-04-24 12:48:58 PM 2017-01-20 11:52:57 PM 1 工程与外贸易有限公司 2000年 2000 2000 2000 2000 8482 9 2023 2023 2024 2024 2023 2025 2025 2024 2025 ·2026 2026 2026 天津港振鸿锰矿库存:南非半碳酸粉块:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿出库:南非半碳酸粉块:万吨 天津港振鸿锰矿入库:南非半碳酸粉块:万吨 300 35 40 32 30 250 30 25 200 25 20 150 20 15 100 50 = = 下载 2018年8月28日 22 The Same States of the Same of Se the start of t ...

格林大华期货国债期货周报 从业资格：F0276812 2026年3月21日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 盘面回顾 03. 策略建议 02. 本期分析 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01. PART 01 盘面回顾 国债期货活跃合约走势 本周国债期货主力合约震荡，以10年期品种为例，周一下跌，周二窄幅波动，周三周四反弹，周五回落。 全周30年期国债期货主力合约TL2606下跌0.40%，10年期T2606上涨0.02%，5年期TF2606上涨0.02%，2年 期TS2606上涨0.05%。全周仅超长期品种幅度较大，其他品种基本持平，短线企稳。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 3月20日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与3月13日相比小幅变陡，短端小幅下行，超长端小幅上行。2年期 国债到期收益率从3月13日的1.35%下行4个BP至3月20日的1.31% ；5年期国债到期收益率持平于1.56%； 10年期国债到期收益率从3月 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4]. Core Insights - The futures industry is experiencing an upturn, with significant historical breakthroughs in 2025, including customer equity and total market funds exceeding 2 trillion yuan, and record highs in annual transaction volume and value [8][11]. - The company has established a clear strategic shift towards "asset management + risk management," moving away from reliance on traditional brokerage services [2][46]. - The company's asset management and risk management businesses have become key pillars, with a focus on active management and derivative products, particularly in the CTA strategy [3][67]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Founded in March 1993 and listed in September 2019, the company is a national full-license futures firm with comprehensive business qualifications, including futures brokerage, asset management, risk management, and investment consulting [46]. - The company has shifted its focus from passive brokerage to active asset and risk management, leveraging its enhanced capital strength post-IPO [2][48]. Business Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of asset management and risk management businesses, which have become significant revenue contributors [2][48]. - The company’s asset management scale rebounded from a cyclical downturn, with a focus on CTA strategies and plans to package these into "fixed income +" products to access broader channels [67][72]. Market Position - The company maintains a market share of approximately 1% in brokerage services, with significant growth in the financial futures sector, where its market share increased from 0.30% in 2023 to 1.20% in the first half of 2025 [3][62]. - Compared to peers, the company’s diversified revenue model, which includes asset management, brokerage, risk management, and proprietary investments, enhances its financial stability and growth potential [4][48]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 42.71%, 20.04%, and 19.21% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 18.0% in 2025 [4][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's latest interest - rate meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, with a more conservative rate - cut path than expected, pushing the US dollar index back to strength and suppressing aluminum prices. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices, which has also put pressure on aluminum prices through two paths [5]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with ongoing production cuts in aluminum smelting in the Middle East and Mozambique. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has limited changes, and downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is still accumulating, which also affects aluminum prices [6]. - Aluminum prices will continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the release of macro - pessimistic market sentiment and the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The US is deploying troops to the Middle East and may seize Iran's key oil export hub. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, with a conservative rate - cut path and raised inflation expectations, which strengthened the US dollar and suppressed aluminum prices. The US - Iran conflict escalated, pushing up oil prices and affecting aluminum prices [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Tense Middle East situation leads to ongoing production cuts in aluminum smelting. In China, downstream demand is recovering, but aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating, putting pressure on aluminum prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will continue to adjust. Monitor the release of market pessimism and Middle East geopolitical developments [7]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus The content mainly presents the multi - and short - factors of aluminum, including ongoing production cuts in the Middle East and Mozambique, limited changes in China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, recovery of downstream demand, inventory accumulation, the Fed's hawkish stance, and rising oil prices, which all affect aluminum prices [11]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: The US - Iran conflict escalated, pushing up oil prices, which suppressed aluminum prices through inflation concerns and energy - supply worries. Global central banks kept interest rates unchanged, and the Fed raised inflation expectations, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing aluminum prices. China's domestic policies are positive, which may strengthen domestic demand [12][14][16][19]. - **Aluminum Ore and Alumina**: Domestic and imported aluminum ore supply is generally loose, but sea - freight is rising. Guinea may control ore exports. In February, China's alumina production decreased slightly, and the price was supported by the expectation of supply tightening in Guinea [22][23][25]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In February, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased due to the Spring Festival, and overseas production increased. In March, domestic production is expected to rebound, but there is a risk of production cuts in Mozambique [30]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, showing signs of the peak season [32]. - **Real Estate**: The real - estate market in early 2026 showed signs of adjustment slowdown, and more demand - side policies are expected [37]. - **New - Energy Vehicles and Power Generation**: New - energy vehicle retail sales were under short - term pressure, while power - generation capacity continued to grow at a high rate [39]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory is decreasing, while SHFE aluminum inventory increase pressure has slowed down. Social inventory of aluminum ingots is still accumulating, which may put pressure on aluminum prices [43][47]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In February, the operating rate of the recycled - aluminum industry dropped significantly. In March, the recovery depends on order performance. The operating rate has been rising, but high - price raw materials restrict the upward space. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy is decreasing [53][57][65]. - **Aluminum Trade**: In 2025, China's exports of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased [63]. 3.4后市研判 - Aluminum alloy prices will follow the adjustment of electrolytic aluminum prices [69]. - Shanghai aluminum prices will continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the release of market macro - pessimistic sentiment and the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily summary of Treasury bond futures positions on March 20, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, trading amounts, open interest, and margin details for different contract varieties and maturities [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Transaction Summary - **T Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of T series contracts was 77,953, a decrease of 9% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 84.4 billion, also a decrease of 9%; the total open interest was 305,548, a decrease of 3,521; the total margin for open positions was 6.62 billion [3] - **TF Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of TF series contracts was 78,690, an increase of 7% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 83.4 billion, an increase of 7%; the total open interest was 192,513, an increase of 601; the total margin for open positions was 2.45 billion [3] - **TL Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of TL series contracts was 90,333, an increase of 1% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 10 billion, an increase of 1%; the total open interest was 159,690, an increase of 5,344; the total margin for open positions was 6.18 billion [3] - **TS Series Contracts**: The total trading volume of TS series contracts was 38,886, a decrease of 13% compared to the previous day; the total trading amount was 7.97 billion, a decrease of 13%; the total open interest was 80,079, an increase of 1,483; the total margin for open positions was 0.82 billion [3] 3.2 Net Position of Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the net position trends of TS, T, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures from October 9 to March 3, including the net positions of the top five, top ten, and top twenty holders [5][6][7] 3.3 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **2606 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 34,717 contracts, an increase of 1,442, with a nominal amount change of 2.96 billion and a position share of 45.0%, an increase of 0.7%; the top five sellers held a total of 47,881 contracts, an increase of 429, with a nominal amount change of 0.88 billion and a position share of 62.0%, a decrease of 1.6% [9] - **2609 Contract**: All trading volume, long and short positions of the top twenty holders were 0 [11] 3.4 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **2606 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 100,076 contracts, an increase of 190, with a nominal amount change of 0.2 billion and a position share of 57.6%, unchanged; the top five sellers held a total of 93,656 contracts, an increase of 368, with a nominal amount change of 0.39 billion and a position share of 53.9%, an increase of 0.1% [13] - **2609 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 9,204 contracts, a decrease of 6, with a nominal amount change of - 0.01 billion and a position share of 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3%; the top five sellers held a total of 14,415 contracts, a decrease of 32, with a nominal amount change of - 0.03 billion and a position share of 78.4%, a decrease of 1.2% [15] 3.5 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **Overall**: The top five buyers held a total of 162,333 contracts, a decrease of 3,131, with a nominal amount change of - 3.39 billion and a position share of 56.2%, a decrease of 0.4%; the top five sellers held a total of 146,600 contracts, an increase of 372, with a nominal amount change of 0.4 billion and a position share of 50.7%, an increase of 0.8% [16] - **2606 Contract**: No separate detailed data provided - **2609 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 9,577 contracts, with a nominal amount change of 0.02 billion and a position share of 59.1%, a decrease of 0.3%; the top five sellers held a total of 9,873 contracts, an increase of 64, with a nominal amount change of 0.07 billion and a position share of 61.0%, unchanged [19] 3.6 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures Position - **2606 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 69,878 contracts, an increase of 439, with a nominal amount change of 0.49 billion and a position share of 52.0%, a decrease of 1.4%; the top five sellers held a total of 71,246 contracts, an increase of 2,086, with a nominal amount change of 2.31 billion and a position share of 53.0%, a decrease of 0.2% [21] - **2609 Contract**: The top five buyers held a total of 15,866 contracts, an increase of 404, with a nominal amount change of 0.45 billion and a position share of 63.5%, a decrease of 0.9%; the top five sellers held a total of 17,613 contracts, an increase of 512, with a nominal amount change of 0.57 billion and a position share of 70.5%, a decrease of 0.7% [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and declined. With the continuous escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the risk of global energy supply shortage and the risk of disruption of the key raw material supply chain have risen rapidly, and the risk of macro - economic weakening has increased significantly. Concerns about macro - economic weakening, concerns about the tightening of global central bank monetary policies, and the high uncertainty of geopolitical factors have led to a significant decline in investors' risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite Index breaking below the 4000 - point integer mark reflects the current weak market sentiment. However, the continuous favorable policies have a strong supporting effect on the stock indices. On the one hand, the policies continue the idea of bottom - support in terms of total volume and focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and supporting small and micro - enterprises in terms of structure, which can better stabilize corporate profit expectations and develop new - quality productive forces, and is conducive to stabilizing the fundamental expectations of the stock market. On the other hand, the policies point out that it is necessary to firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. In the state of low market sentiment, the policy side is expected to introduce liquidity support policies or play the role of a quasi - stabilization fund to stabilize the market. In general, the macro - recession risk caused by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East coexists with the continuous favorable policies, and the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. For options, since the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term and there is still support for the stock indices, a bull spread or covered call enhancement strategy can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上证50ETF期权 - The report provides charts of the Shanghai 50ETF, including its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [5][6]. 3.2上交所300ETF期权 - The report presents charts of the SSE 300ETF, such as its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [7][8][9]. 3.3深交所300ETF期权 - The report shows charts of the Shenzhen 300ETF, including its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [18][19][20]. 3.4沪深300股指期权 - The report provides charts of the CSI 300 stock index, including its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [29][30][31]. 3.5中证1000股指期权 - The report presents charts of the CSI 1000 stock index, such as its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [37][38][39]. 3.6上交所500ETF期权 - The report shows charts of the SSE 500ETF, including its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [46][47][48]. 3.7深交所500ETF期权 - The report provides charts of the Shenzhen 500ETF, such as its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [57][58][59]. 3.8上证50股指期权 - The report presents charts of the Shanghai 50 index, including its price trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [70][71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by improved demand and inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with light positions, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 5.55%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 94,740 yuan/ton [6] - **International Situation**: During the "Super Central Bank Week", the European Central Bank, and the central banks of Japan, the UK, Switzerland, and Sweden announced on March 19 that they would maintain interest rates unchanged. All central banks emphasized the uncertainty caused by the Middle - East conflict, and the market's expectation of interest rate hikes increased sharply [6] - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, it will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects of work [6] - **Fundamentals**: The spot index of copper concentrate TC hit a new low, increasing the expectation of tight supply. Overseas geopolitical situations affected economic growth expectations, causing copper prices to decline under pressure. Smelters maintained a high production level. As copper prices fell, the upstream's willingness to hold back goods and raise prices increased, and the willingness to release scattered orders decreased. Downstream copper product processing plants increased their operations of replenishing inventory at low prices, and the spot market trading improved. In the traditional consumption peak season and stimulated by the decline in copper prices, consumption demand improved, and the inflection point of copper social inventory appeared, showing an obvious reduction [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of March 20, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 4,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,950 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 94,740 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5,570 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 201,181 lots, a week - on - week increase of 10,270 lots [12] - **Spot Price**: As of March 20, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 95,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,395 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 520 yuan/ton [15] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 47 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short position of - 71,253 lots, an increase of 12,148 lots compared with last week [24] - **Options Market**: As of March 20, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options contract of the Shanghai copper main contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options open interest was 0.81, with a week - on - week change of 0.0395 [29] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Price and Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 86,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,560 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 1,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton [30] - **Copper Ore Import and Scrap - Refined Spread**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3103 million tons, a decrease of 312,800 tons from January, a decline of 11.92%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper spread (including tax) was 3,786.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 331.4 yuan/ton [37] - **Global Copper Ore Production and Port Inventory**: As of December 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,050 thousand tons, an increase of 159 thousand tons from November, an increase of 8.41%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 82.3%, an increase of 3.6% from November. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 404,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 81,000 tons [42] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, an increase of 7.28%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. As of December 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 70 thousand tons from November, an increase of 2.96%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [44] - **Refined Copper Import**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 203,588.219 tons, a decrease of 47,080.37 tons from January, a decline of 18.78%, and a year - on - year decline of 33.28% [52] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 23,600 tons week - on - week, the total COMEX inventory decreased by 2,841 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 27,211 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 540,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,400 tons [57] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Copper Product Production and Import**: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, an increase of 0.14%. As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of copper products was 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from January, a decline of 15.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 23.81% [63] - **Power Grid Investment and Home Appliance Production**: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65% respectively. As of December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% respectively [67] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of February 2026, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 961.211 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% and a month - on - month increase of 88.39%. As of February 2026, the cumulative production of integrated circuits was 81.52 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.4% and a month - on - month increase of 83.17% [73] 3.6 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Situation**: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of January 2026, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 129,300 tons [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets significantly declined due to macro - expectations changes, with the overall precious metals sector under strong pressure. The platinum - strong and palladium - weak pattern is likely to continue. In the short - term, the prices of platinum and palladium will continue to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position range trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - This week, the macro - expectations changed frequently. The platinum and palladium markets declined significantly. The high - tension situation in the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and rising inflation concerns led to a strong US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the precious metals sector. Although there were short - term stabilizations, the overall prices of platinum and palladium dropped. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of platinum is inelastic, and the inventory is decreasing, with strong support at the bottom. The medium - term demand for palladium is weakening [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Contract Prices**: As of March 20, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 368.85 yuan/gram, down 9.62% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 509.75 yuan/gram, down 5.88% week - on - week [12]. - **Net Positions in NYMEX**: As of March 10, 2026 (latest), NYMEX platinum long - net positions were 20,916 contracts, up 3.19% month - on - month; NYMEX palladium long - net positions were - 1,407 contracts, up 13.73% month - on - month, continuing the net outflow trend [15]. - **Basis Situation**: As of March 19, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was 25 US dollars/ounce (last week: 57), weakening month - on - month; the NYMEX palladium basis was 82 US dollars/ounce (last week: 76.5), strengthening month - on - month. The basis of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [20][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of March 19, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 579,273.64 ounces, down 0.54% month - on - month; NYMEX palladium inventory was 245,176.82 ounces, up 22.15% month - on - month [27]. - **Price Ratio**: As of March 19, 2026, the gold - platinum ratio was 2.44 (last week: 2.41), rising slightly month - on - month; the rolling correlation between NYMEX platinum and gold strengthened [32]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of March 19, 2026, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum was 99.05 US dollars/ounce, falling week - on - week; the domestic - foreign price difference of palladium was 52.38 US dollars/ounce, rising week - on - week [59]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Import and Export**: As of February 2026, platinum import volume was 4,437,146 grams, down 6.11% month - on - month; export volume was 371,067 grams, down 72.15% month - on - month. Palladium import volume was 1,525,418 grams, up 51.77% month - on - month; export volume was 2,288 grams, up 25.94% month - on - month [38]. - **Demand**: The demand for platinum and palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts is declining year by year. The core consumption of platinum and palladium is still concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, but the trends are significantly different. The global palladium consumption in automobile catalysts accounts for 83%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 6% year - on - year. For platinum, automobile catalysts account for 44%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 3% year - on - year. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is gradually slowing down [40][42][47]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the global platinum mine supply decreased by 4% year - on - year, and is expected to only slightly increase in 2026. The recycling supply increased. The global palladium mine production is expected to decline significantly in 2025, mainly due to the impact of the main production areas in Russia and South Africa [53]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - As of March 19, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.23, up 0.30% week - on - week; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.50% week - on - week [64].