Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market continues to decline, with spot gold and silver prices experiencing notable decreases [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold has dropped by 1.43%, now priced at $4,874.42 per ounce [1] - Spot silver has decreased by 1.38%, currently valued at $83.84 per ounce [1]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：三种交易思路 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 2 月 4 日，月初超跌资产的反击仍在继续，伦敦金现货单日涨幅超过 2%，盘中价格一度接近 5100 美元/盎 司，伦敦银现货单日涨幅超 5%，价格回到 90 美元/盎司之上。国内股市，科技概念稍弱，其余板块延续反击趋 势，上证指数单日上涨 0.85%，重新站上 4100 点，A 股成交额维持在 2.5 万亿元的高位水平。相比之下，债市成 交较为冷清，30 年国债、10 年国开活跃券成交笔数不足千笔，长端利率小幅震荡上行。 权益市场缩量震荡。万得全 A上涨 0.45%，全天成交额 2.50 万亿元，较昨日（2 月 3 日）缩量 624亿元。港 股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.05%，恒生科技下跌 1.84%。南向资金净流入 133.73 亿港元，其中腾讯控股和阿里巴巴 分别净流入 22.31 亿港元和 11.71 亿港元，中芯国际则净流出 7.07 亿港元。 行情"冷热交替"，指数趋势难寻。从降温后的行情来看，指 ...

2月4日，随着避险情绪的波动和宏观政策信号的明朗，贵金属市场正经历一场由"超跌反弹"驱动的估值 重塑。金丰来表示，在周二的美国午盘交易中，黄金与白银展现出了极强的韧性，多头资金在经历了前 期的剧烈洗盘后表现出强烈的抄底意愿。受政府拨款法案获批、停摆危机解除的利好提振，金银价格双 双走出阴霾。这种由政策预期改善带动的风险偏好回升，不仅止住了价格的非理性下跌，更在技术层面 上构筑了坚实的短期底部。 外部因素共振与数据真空期的机遇 除了政坛局势的明朗化，汇市与能化市场的走势也为金银价格的飙升提供了燃料。事实数据表示，美元 指数近期走势疲软，而原油价格稳定在每桶62.75美元附近，这对作为抗通胀资产的贵金属而言是明确 的利多信号。金丰来认为，由于政府停摆导致1月非农报告等关键经济数据延期发布，市场进入了一个 短暂的"信息真空期"，这使得资金流向更加依赖技术面引导和突发新闻驱动。在这种环境下，4月黄金 期货单日录得超过300美元的涨幅，收报4959.00美元，显示出实物资产在不确定性中的吸引力。 尽管短期反弹势头迅猛，但中长期的多空博弈依然焦灼。金丰来表示，从日线图来看，黄金此前形成的 看跌反转形态虽暗示顶部可能已经出 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals and Currency Predictions - Goldman Sachs maintains a significant upward risk for its 2026 gold price forecast of $5,400 per ounce, attributing January's price fluctuations primarily to Western capital flows rather than speculative behavior, with silver experiencing larger adjustments due to tight liquidity in the London market [1] - Danske Bank indicates that the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair has shifted short-term risks favorably for the US dollar, alleviating concerns about the Fed's independence and allowing for a tactical window for dollar rebound [2] - RHB Retail Research suggests that unless gold closes above $5,090 per ounce, the bearish technical outlook remains intact, with strong selling pressure expected at this resistance level [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Currency Risks - ING notes that the Australian dollar faces a risk of weakening due to overly aggressive market expectations for further interest rate hikes, despite the RBA's projected inflation rate of 3.7% for June [4] - Eastern Wealth Management anticipates that the European Central Bank may lower interest rates later this year due to lower-than-expected inflation, with current deposit rates at 2.00% [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Insights - CICC asserts that the choice of Fed Chair is unlikely to significantly impact the normalization of the balance sheet expansion, as current liquidity conditions remain tight, contributing to market panic selling [6] - CITIC Securities predicts a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 2026, driven by the need to support banks amid narrowing net interest margins and significant government debt issuance [7] - CITIC Securities highlights a continuing price increase in the electronic components industry, driven by supply-demand tightness and rising upstream metal prices, recommending focus on sectors benefiting from this trend [8] Group 4: Technology and Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports that OpenAI will launch its first ads in early February 2026, indicating a shift towards monetization strategies for large models, balancing user experience with revenue generation [9] - CITIC Securities expresses optimism about the solid-state battery sector, anticipating significant developments in 2026 as multiple manufacturers prepare for testing and small-scale production [10] - CITIC Securities notes that the global commercial space industry is entering a new phase focused on large-scale deployment and ecosystem building, with significant advancements driven by both US and Chinese companies [11] Group 5: Consumer and Market Behavior - Galaxy Securities highlights the strong demand for travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, benefiting OTA platforms and the duty-free sector, with significant revenue growth expected [12] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "Spring Rally" may be more sustained this year due to solid foundations, including policy expectations and increased consumer spending [13] - Huatai Securities indicates that the recent VAT adjustment for telecom operators may have a lower-than-expected impact on profits, as companies adapt through technological upgrades [14]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded above $5,000 per ounce for the second consecutive day as investors buy on dips following a historic drop from record highs [1][10] Group 1: Price Movements - On Wednesday, gold prices rose by 2.9%, following a previous day's increase of over 6% [1] - Despite being more than $500 below the previous record high, gold has maintained a year-to-date increase of approximately 17% [1] - Silver prices also experienced an upward trend [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The forced sell-off in precious metals may have ended, according to Daniel Ghali, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities [3][7] - Recent volatility has led retail investors to remain cautious, reducing a significant buyer group [3] - The surge in precious metal prices last month was driven by speculative momentum, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [8] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Chinese and Western retail investors have built substantial positions in precious metals, with a surge in leveraged trading and call options further fueling the market [8] - A sudden crash during Asian trading hours last Friday continued into the early part of this week [8] - Bloomberg data indicated that four major gold ETFs in mainland China experienced a combined outflow of nearly $1 billion on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day outflow [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite recent price drops, the fundamentals supporting gold's rise to historical highs remain intact [4] - Deutsche Bank reiterated its forecast for gold prices to rebound to $6,000 per ounce [9] - Goldman Sachs noted a "significant upside risk" to its year-end gold price forecast of $5,400 [9] - Bank of America stated that volatility in precious metal prices will likely remain high [10]

近日，国际黄金白银上演罕见的史诗级暴跌，A股贵金属股票连续跌停，投资者损失惨重，但是一家贵 金属上市公司的董秘敢于逆势操作，在自家公司股票第三个跌停时大胆抄底，并且他此前一直增持公司 股票，获得了丰厚的回报，他就是兴业银锡的董秘孙凯。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 1月30日和2月2日，兴业银锡股价连续两个跌停。在2月3日开盘后，公司股价继续跌停，兴业银锡董秘 孙凯在当日跌停板位置第六次增持公司股份。目前持股数量达到24万股，持股市值超过1200万元。相较 于孙凯的买入总金额，其目前浮盈超过800万元。孙凯自2011年开始担任兴业银锡董秘，但2011年至 2024年，公司的信息披露评价不如人意，最近6年连续为C。截至2月4日收盘，兴业银锡股价收于53.40 元，市值达948亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The overall trend in the commodity market is upward, with strong performance in precious metals, black metals (coal and construction materials), crude oil, and non-ferrous metals [2][15] - Key commodities showing strength include gold, silver, tin, coking coal, fuel oil, glass, and PVC, suggesting a preference for bullish operations around these top-performing products [2][15] - Global market dynamics are influenced by inflation expectations supporting commodities, geopolitical conflicts, and energy supply disruptions, with precious metals leading due to safe-haven and anti-inflation demand [2][15] Group 2 - The real estate sector in Hong Kong showed a rebound, driven by bullish sentiment from some private equity firms, although this does not necessarily indicate a rise in real estate prices [3][16] - Policies in cities like Shanghai may not support upward expectations for real estate prices, indicating that a recovery in the sector is premature [3][17] - The A-share market saw brokerage and liquor stocks supporting the market, suggesting potential issues with previously overheated stocks [4][18] Group 3 - For the glass futures (2605), a bullish strategy is recommended with a buying range of 1100-1115 points, an initial stop-loss of 1070-1082 points, and a target profit range of 1132-1142 points [19] - For PVC futures (2605), a similar bullish strategy is advised with a buying range of 5120-5160 points, a stop-loss of 5000-5050 points, and a target profit range of 5230-5280 points [20] - The overall trading results indicate an 8% profit for glass futures, achieving a phase-specific profit target, while PVC futures continue to show a clear bullish trend [22][23] Group 4 - The effectiveness of strategies is based on supply contraction, inventory reduction, and strong expectations driven by capital, with successful risk management practices in place [25] - Highlights of risk control include timely adjustments to stop-loss levels and advising investors on reducing positions to mitigate potential risks [25] - The current commodity market is experiencing high volatility, necessitating close monitoring of global macro data and domestic policy changes for dynamic strategy adjustments [25]

Group 1: Core Insights - The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with Iran's military actions against U.S. vessels indicating heightened tensions despite ongoing negotiations [1][4][5] - Iran's military has conducted aggressive actions, including attempts to board a U.S. flagged commercial ship and the downing of an Iranian drone near the USS Lincoln, suggesting internal divisions regarding negotiations [4][5][6] - The market has reacted to these developments, with significant increases in commodity prices, including silver rising over 4% and oil prices also experiencing upward movement [1][6] Group 2: Negotiation Developments - The U.S. government has agreed to hold negotiations with Iran in Oman, responding to Iran's request to change the location from Turkey [2] - Iranian officials have indicated a willingness to lower uranium enrichment levels but refuse to transfer enriched uranium abroad, emphasizing the peaceful nature of their nuclear program [2] - The U.S. remains committed to diplomatic solutions while retaining military options, indicating a complex balance between negotiation and potential conflict [3][6]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 光伏煤炭行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2026-02-03 《市场分析：电网酿酒行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-02-02 《市场分析：农业通信行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-01-30 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（02 月 04 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4087 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，尾盘再度上行，盘中煤炭、光伏设备、航空机场以及玻璃玻纤 等行业表现较好；贵金属、游戏、文化传媒以及互联网服务等行业 表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市 场周三震荡整理，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ ...

出品｜搜狐财经 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，关注并展望2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 近日，财通基金权益研究部负责人唐家伟，做客搜狐财经直播间，深入剖析了2026年周期赛道的投资逻辑与机遇。 唐家伟直言，当前时点需高度重视周期板块，其核心驱动来自对2026年经济可能复苏向上的强烈预期。"周期股的行情启动一般分为三阶段：交易复苏预 期、交易业绩提升、行情尾声。目前，我们正处在对边际变化最敏感的第一阶段。" 对于行情所处阶段，唐家伟给出了较为明确的判断："有色金属目前大概率已进入第二阶段，而化工等行业还处在第一阶段。" 作者｜汪梦婷 编辑｜杨锦 更多访谈点击查看《基金佳问》专栏 2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 他特别强调，尽管有色金属价格受近期宏观事件影响出现短期调整，但中长期来看，行情仍具备中长期韧性。以铜为例，"一方面，铜在关键领域难以替 代；另一方面，其在许多终端产品成本中 ...