Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9]. - Industrial production maintains stable growth, with the industrial production high-frequency index at 128.0, and a week-on-week increase of 4.8 points, the same as the previous period [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the decline in the high-frequency index of commercial housing sales has widened, the growth rate of the high-frequency index of infrastructure investment has narrowed, the decline in the high-frequency index of exports has expanded, and the growth rate of the high-frequency index of consumption remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month-on-month forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the month-on-month forecast of PPI is -0.1% (previous value: -0.1%) [1][9]. - The high-frequency index of inventory, transportation, and financing has increased, with the growth rate expanding [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9] Production - The electric furnace operating rate has increased to 63.5% (previous value: 61.9%); the polyester operating rate is 87.2% (previous value: 87.5%); the semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.4% (previous value: 65.9%); the all-steel tire operating rate is 62.9% (previous value: 58.0%); the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.1%) [16] Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has slightly increased, reaching 18.5 million square meters (previous value: 16.9 million square meters); the land premium rate of 100 large and medium-sized cities is 1.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [29] Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt has slightly increased to 27.2% (previous value: 25.4%) [42] Exports - The RJ/CRB index has increased to 304.3 points (previous value: 301.8 points) [45] Consumption - The average daily movie box office has decreased to 45.777 million yuan (previous value: 53.561 million yuan) [54] CPI - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white-striped chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [61] PPI - The ex - warehouse price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 699.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 690.7 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 61.6 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 13,232.0 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13,048.7 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3,184.3 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3,093.7 US dollars/ton) [65] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first-tier cities is 39.161 million person - times (previous value: 40.448 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1052.3 points (previous value: 1051.9 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,736.9 (previous value: 12,494.3) [79] Inventory - The soda ash inventory has slightly increased to 1.57 million tons (previous value: 1.541 million tons) [90] Financing - The net financing of local government bonds is 65.57 billion yuan (previous value: 117.66 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 39.99 billion yuan (previous value: 131.04 billion yuan) [101]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | あ | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.94 | 7.84 | 0.1 ...

Group 1 - China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $6.1 billion in November, bringing the total to approximately $680 billion, while global holdings reached a record high of over $9.36 trillion [1][8] - The reduction in US Treasury holdings by China is a strategic adjustment focused on foreign exchange reserve security and long-term planning, rather than an emotional reaction or a complete economic decoupling from the US [1][4] - China's foreign exchange reserves are intended to support economic security, emphasizing stability and diversification rather than seeking short-term high returns [4][6] Group 2 - The US debt has surpassed $30 trillion, with interest payments consuming significant fiscal resources, leading to concerns about the sustainability of holding excessive US debt due to increased uncertainty [4][6] - The use of the dollar as a geopolitical tool by the US has prompted countries, including China, to reduce their reliance on dollar-denominated assets to mitigate financial risks [6][31] - China has been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.415 million ounces by the end of December 2025, as part of a strategy to enhance the resilience of its foreign exchange reserves [6][8] Group 3 - Japan increased its US Treasury holdings by $2.6 billion to $1.2 trillion, driven by currency management, yield supplementation, and strategic considerations related to US military presence [12] - The UK also increased its holdings by $10.6 billion to $888.5 billion, focusing on maintaining its financial center status and risk hedging [14][16] - Other countries like Canada and Norway have increased their US Treasury holdings for short-term liquidity management and strategic balance, reflecting diverse motivations behind these decisions [16][18] Group 4 - The ongoing reduction of US Treasury holdings by China has sparked political reactions in the US, particularly from figures like Navarro, who express concerns over the implications for US financial stability [22][24] - The US agricultural sector's dependence on China for soybean exports highlights the potential economic repercussions of trade threats, suggesting that such measures may harm US interests more than intended [26][28] - The global increase in US Treasury holdings, while appearing as an endorsement of the dollar, reflects a lack of alternatives in the current economic landscape, with countries exploring diversified asset allocations as a challenge to US financial dominance [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Hubei Agricultural Products Brand Promotion and Exhibition" will take place in Guangzhou from January 24 to 26, showcasing 25 high-quality agricultural products from Hubei, aiming to enhance agricultural collaboration between Hubei and Guangdong [2][3][22]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will feature a one-stop experience for consumers to enjoy Hubei's culinary offerings without traveling to Hubei [2][6]. - It will include various activities such as product displays, cultural performances, and interactive tasting sessions, creating a vibrant atmosphere for attendees [4][14]. - The event aims to cater to the taste preferences of the Greater Bay Area residents with a diverse range of products [11][26]. Group 2: Featured Products - A total of 25 brands will be represented, covering nine major public brands from Hubei, including products like lotus root, shrimp, and Wuchang fish [7][8]. - Specific highlights include the freshness of Poyang Lake shrimp, the sweetness of Zhi Gui oranges, and the richness of Xiangyang beef noodles [9][10]. Group 3: Cultural and Community Engagement - The event will also feature traditional performances such as the Enshi hand-waving dance and Huangmei opera, enhancing cultural exchange between northern and southern China [17][22]. - Community engagement will be emphasized with local residents able to sample products and participate in interactive activities [15][19]. Group 4: Business and Economic Impact - The event serves as a platform for deepening agricultural collaboration between Hubei and Guangdong, facilitating direct communication between local businesses and agricultural producers [22][25]. - It aims to promote the efficient connection of agricultural products from Hubei to the consumer market in the Greater Bay Area, supporting high-quality agricultural development in Hubei [26][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significance of the recent formal visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China, marking the first visit in eight years, and the signing of the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap," which signifies a new phase in bilateral relations [1] Group 2 - China and Canada have strong economic complementarity, with China being the world's second-largest economy and Canada known for its rich natural resources and advanced technology. The signed roadmap includes 28 specific cooperation measures across eight key areas, promoting resource optimization and market opportunities for both countries [3] Group 3 - The upgrade of the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee from a vice-ministerial to a ministerial level signifies a commitment to deepen economic relations, enhancing dialogue on intellectual property and trade remedies, and providing a solid foundation for stable bilateral trade [4] Group 4 - Canada will grant China an annual quota of 49,000 electric vehicles, exempting them from high additional taxes, reflecting recognition of Chinese electric vehicle technology and strong demand in the North American market [5] Group 5 - In agricultural trade, Canada’s high-quality products align with China's vast consumer market. Preliminary agreements were reached to adjust anti-dumping measures on canola seeds, responding to Canada's concerns and meeting the growing demand for quality agricultural products in China [6][7] Group 6 - The cooperation between China and Canada serves as a template for bilateral economic relations amid rising global trade protectionism, emphasizing multilateralism and free trade principles, which enhances both countries' international influence and contributes positively to global economic stability [8]

Group 1 - Canada will no longer impose a 100% additional tariff on electric vehicles from China, instead applying a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff on a limited number of imported vehicles, signaling a restoration of trade relations with China [1][3] - The new quota system aims to maximize bilateral cooperation and significantly reduce car purchase costs for Canadian citizens, while also encouraging substantial Chinese investment in Canada's automotive industry over the next three years [3][5] - Canadian farmers are expected to benefit from reduced tariffs on canola seeds, which will drop to approximately 15% by March 2026, and other agricultural products will no longer be subject to Chinese countermeasures starting in March [3][5] Group 2 - The visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China is viewed as a crucial step in recalibrating Canada-China relations, with the signing of the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap" providing a framework for future cooperation [5] - The U.S. has expressed concerns regarding Canada's decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, indicating potential strategic implications for North American security and economic stability [5][7] - Many countries globally are moving towards diversifying their partnerships to mitigate risks, with China emerging as a significant partner due to its large and stable market and commitment to mutually beneficial cooperation [7]

| 油脂产业期现日报 F B | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月19日 王凌娃 Z0019938 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 员阳 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 马来棕榈油进口利润 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月16日 1月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 江苏均价 8540 8460 80 0.95% 现价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期价 Y2605 8016 7938 78 0.98% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基差 Y2605 524 522 2 0.38% | | | | | | | | | | ...

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-19 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货矛盾仍存，短期区间震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前基层售粮进度已超过五成，东北售粮进度同比偏快，今年过年较迟，年前售粮窗口期相对较长，农户挺价情绪仍存；（2）25/26年度种植成本继 续下降，东北、西北增产，华北减产，全国整体维持丰产预期。 | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年11月，全国工业饲料产量2873万吨，环比减少1.2%，同比增长2.7%，饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为43.8%； （2）生猪存栏高位，产能去化尚不明显，支撑短期饲用需求，生猪养殖已步入亏损，产能调节和政策调控预期 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]

Core Insights - In 2025, Sichuan's foreign trade enterprises exceeded 10,000 for the first time, with a total import and export value of 1,031.81 billion yuan [1] - Sichuan's exports reached 608.65 billion yuan, maintaining over 600 billion yuan for four consecutive years, while imports were 423.16 billion yuan, remaining above 400 billion yuan for two consecutive years [1] - The number of import and export enterprises in Sichuan grew by 13.8% year-on-year, reaching 10,329, with private enterprises surpassing 9,000 for the first time [1] Group 1 - High-value-added and specialty products became new engines for exports, with electromechanical products' import and export value at 820.12 billion yuan, a 2% increase [2] - Exports of "new three samples" products, including lithium batteries, reached 33.77 billion yuan, marking a historical high with a growth of 69.4% [2] - Agricultural products' import and export value grew by 15%, reaching 30.95 billion yuan, with 15 types of agricultural products entering international markets for the first time [2] Group 2 - Chengdu's dual airport operation model (Chengdu Tianfu International Airport and Chengdu Shuangliu Airport) facilitated over 700 billion yuan in imports and exports, accounting for 8.6% of China's air freight [2] - Chengdu High-tech Comprehensive Bonded Zone's import and export value reached 525.69 billion yuan, leading China's comprehensive bonded zones and becoming a key platform for global industrial chain cooperation [2]