1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 9th to June 13th, globally, stocks fluctuated and diverged, while bonds and commodities rose. In China, stocks and bonds fluctuated, and commodities rose. Overall, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of performance [3][6][19]. - The market is currently focused on the Middle - East situation, which may lead to increased volatility in related asset prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's June interest - rate meeting for clues on the US dollar's monetary policy [3][26]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - The performance of major global stock markets diverged. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose. US stocks performed poorly [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.49% in the past week, and the South Korea Composite Index had a significant weekly increase of 2.94%. In the European market, the MSCI Europe fell 0.27%. In the American market, the MSCI US fell 0.47% [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond dropped by 10BP to 4.41% this week. Globally, credit bonds > government bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - The global bond index rose 0.81%, the global government bond index rose 0.78%, and the global credit bond index rose 0.90% [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 1.07% this week due to higher - than - expected growth in US jobless claims and increased expectations of interest - rate cuts. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range [16]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices, and gold prices rose due to risk - aversion. The prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - A - share broad - based indices generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. Blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25% [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. The bond market fluctuated strongly, with government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [22]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index rose 0.13%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.60% [23]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose overall. The energy sector led the gains, while non - ferrous metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.14%, and the Nanhua Energy Index rose 9.63% [24]. 3.3 Outlook for Major Asset Prices - The market is short - term focused on the Middle - East situation, which may increase the price volatility of related major assets. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week for more clues on the US dollar's monetary policy [26].

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing likelihood of a weaker dollar due to misaligned monetary policies and challenges in the dollar's external circulation system [2][4][69] - It reviews seven significant periods of dollar depreciation since 1970, emphasizing the impact on various asset classes, particularly commodities and non-US equities [3][9][62] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the foreign exchange market, commodities, and non-US equity markets as the dollar weakens [4][62][70] Group 2 - The historical analysis indicates that during periods of dollar weakness, commodities consistently outperform, driven by a shift in investment towards tangible assets [63][62] - Non-US equity markets, particularly in emerging economies, tend to benefit from capital inflows and improved economic conditions during dollar depreciation phases [63][62] - The report identifies specific periods where asset performance varied significantly, with Asian markets often outperforming European markets during dollar weakness [14][23][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for a new trend of dollar depreciation, driven by factors such as the narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other economies [69][70] - It notes that the eurozone is likely to benefit the most from the rebalancing of dollar-denominated assets, as fiscal expansion in the region is expected to enhance economic prospects [77][79] - The analysis suggests that as the dollar weakens, there will be an increase in hedging against dollar exposure, further supporting the appreciation of currencies from regions holding significant US assets [77][79]

Market Overview - Recent market activity has been characterized by significant volatility, particularly in gold, which experienced a price swing of over $100 in one day. This was preceded by a sharp decline of over $30 during the afternoon session, likely triggered by profit-taking from institutional positions near previous highs [1] - The subsequent rise in gold prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli attack on Iran, which spurred safe-haven buying. This was reflected in a simultaneous 7% increase in oil prices, indicating a strong correlation between geopolitical events and market movements [1] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is expected to feature major economic announcements, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the OPEC monthly report, which are critical for market participants [3][4] - The OPEC monthly report will provide insights into member countries' oil production, inventory, and export dynamics, serving as a key indicator for traders assessing future supply-demand balances in the oil market [4] Key Economic Indicators - On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be closely monitored, as the central bank's stance on its ultra-loose monetary policy could significantly impact the yen and broader market sentiment [6] - The U.S. retail sales data, known as "the terror data," will be released on the same day, directly reflecting consumer spending strength, which is a crucial component of GDP. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker results may heighten market concerns about economic prospects [7] Oil Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report, which will provide a clear picture of supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. energy market. A significant drop in inventory levels typically indicates rising demand or constrained supply, which is bullish for oil prices [8] - Current market focus is on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, U.S. shale oil recovery, and the pace of global demand recovery, all of which could influence OPEC's outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year [5] Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decisions - Thursday will feature the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be a major market event. The accompanying dot plot and economic projections will be critical for understanding the Fed's future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with potential for significant volatility in the pound if unexpected policy shifts occur [12] Trading Considerations - Traders are advised to be cautious during the upcoming week due to the anticipated volatility from major economic data releases. Proper position sizing and risk management strategies are essential to navigate the expected market fluctuations [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides the mid-point exchange rates of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currencies in the interbank foreign exchange market as of June 16, 2025, highlighting fluctuations in the RMB's value against these currencies [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1789, indicating a depreciation of the RMB by 17 points [1] - The EUR/RMB rate stands at 8.2870, showing a decrease of 213 points [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91457, with an increase of 1.3 points [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is recorded at 9.7364, reflecting a decline of 255 points [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is noted at 4.6629, down by 151 points [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2885, up by 170 points [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is reported at 4.9732, down by 296 points [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 11.1341, decreasing by 99 points [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3243, down by 198 points [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is reported at 0.59122, increasing by 25.2 points [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 8.8502, down by 58 points [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.6008, down by 82 points [1]

Group 1 - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds increased by 3 basis points to 6.37% [1] - The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7% against the US Dollar [1] - The rise in oil prices is cited as a contributing factor to these financial movements [1]

2025年6月13日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1772，下调（人民币升值）31点； 欧元/人民币报8.3083，上调505点； 港元/人民币报0.91444，下调3.7点； 英镑/人民币报9.7619，上调283点； 澳元/人民币报4.6780，上调105点； 加元/人民币报5.2715，上调218点； 100日元/人民币报5.0028，上调265点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1440，上调823点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3441，上调165点； 人民币/林吉特报0.5887，下调6.5点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.8560，上调920点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.6090，上调195点。 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1221.420, showing an increase of 5.890 or 0.48% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1065.840, reflecting a decrease of 2.970 or 0.28% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3368.700, up by 22.000 or 0.66% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.800, down by 0.105 or 0.28% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.144, increasing by 0.22% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.353, decreasing by 0.17% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 144.513, down by 0.06% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.653, up by 0.18% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.821, down by 0.08% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 109015.700, down by 1247.320 or 1.13% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 90.880, increasing by 0.150 or 0.17% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2720.590, up by 40.450 or 1.51% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.286, down by 0.035 or 1.51% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.987, down by 0.016 or 0.40% [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 4.054, decreasing by 0.033 or 0.81% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.446, down by 0.037 or 0.83% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.911, decreasing by 0.043 or 0.87% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.535, down by 0.098 or 2.12% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.519, decreasing by 0.051 or 1.98% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.198, down by 0.043 or 1.33% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.448, decreasing by 0.043 or 1.23% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.483, up by 0.020 or 1.37% [7]

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

周一（6月9日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅延续跌势后低位震荡，目前交投于3312美元附近。刚刚过去的一周，金价冲高回落，受地缘局势担忧等因素影响， 现货黄金在上周一（6月2日）曾上涨近3%，至3380附近，随后的几个交易日震荡运行，因为美国经济数据表现不佳，在上周四（6月6日）一度涨至3402美 元/盎司，但随着国际贸易局势传来乐观消息，金价开始回吐涨幅，由于非农数据强于市场预期，现货黄金上周五下跌1.22%，收报3311.86美元/盎司，周线 涨幅约0.65%。 美元兑其他主要货币上周五上涨0.47%，收报99.20，因为数据显示美国5月份就业增长好于预期，尽管增速比上月有所放缓，这表明美联储可能会等待更长 时间再降息。该因素也是上周五金价下跌的原因之一。美元一直受到特朗普总统的关税政策和与包括中国在内的贸易伙伴谈判前景的不确定性、美国参议院 在众议院通过赤字支出和税收法案后正在审议的法案以及近期经济数据轨迹的拖累。在包括就业数据在内的经济数据强于预期之后，市场开始扭转对美元的 一些空头仓位。 美国劳工部的数据显示，5月份雇主增加了13.9万个工作岗位，少于4月份的14.7万个，但超过了对经济学家进行的调查所预 ...