宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, indicating the continuous impact on demand and inflation. Despite weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. The April trade deficit was lower than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading and a sharp increase in Sino - US tariffs. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies will implement established measures [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks should be noted. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Pay attention to option market liquidity. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamental contradictions are limited, and the price is mainly driven by costs. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is boosted by the macro - environment. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Coke: Molten iron production continued to decline, demand was weak, and the third round of price cuts was inevitable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly disrupted and contracted, and the supply - demand improvement was not obvious. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [7]. - Alumina: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Aluminum: The trade tension has eased, and the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Pay attention to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: Zinc ingot inventory continued to decline, and the zinc price rebounded slightly. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Lead: There is still cost support, and the lead price fluctuated. Pay attention to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Nickel: The supply - demand situation is generally weak, and the nickel price fluctuated widely in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly, and the price fluctuated. Pay attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Tin: The inventory in both markets continued to decline, and the tin price fluctuated. Pay attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Industrial silicon: The flood season is approaching, and the silicon price is still under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the lithium price rose with reduced positions. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - LPG: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Profits continue to expand, and the downward pressure on the asphalt futures price increases. Pay attention to unexpected demand. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: As the crude oil price rises, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declines. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates with the crude oil price. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: The coal price stabilizes, the port basis strengthens, and methanol fluctuates. Pay attention to the macro - energy situation and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. Pay attention to market trading volume, policy trends, and demand realization. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. Pay attention to ethylene glycol terminal demand. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - PX: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PX price declined. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PTA price declined. Pay attention to polyester production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Short - fiber: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - Bottle chips: Production was at a high level, supply was in surplus, and low processing fees will continue. Pay attention to future bottle - chip production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PP: The oil price rebounded, and pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Plastic: The raw material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Styrene: The real - world situation is still poor, and the styrene price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the oil price, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - PVC: Short - term sentiment improved, and PVC rebounded weakly. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Caustic soda: The spot price reached the peak and declined, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Pay attention to market sentiment, production, and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Oils and fats: The Sino - US trade negotiations boosted market sentiment, and there is a demand for soybean and palm oil to rebound. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Protein meal: The spot price declined, the basis weakened, and the technical rebound of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.3 Agriculture - Corn/Starch: The spot market is stable, and the futures price continues to rise. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Live pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Rubber: There are no new variables, and the futures price stabilizes. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price stabilizes temporarily. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Pulp: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it mainly fluctuates. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the macro - environment releases positive signals to boost the futures price. Pay attention to demand and production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates and consolidates, and pay attention to the 5700 support level. Pay attention to abnormal weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Logs: The delivery game is intense, and the futures price fluctuates more. Pay attention to shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the market trends and investment outlooks for various commodities on June 10, 2025, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to guide investors [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2508 closed at 774.72 yuan, down 1.09% [2][7]. - **Silver**: There was a technical breakthrough. The trend intensity is 2. The price of Shanghai Silver 2508 closed at 8909 yuan, up 0.70% [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of LME copper strengthened, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,910 yuan, down 0.03% [2][12]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a sideways consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20025 yuan, down 45 yuan [2][15]. - **Alumina**: It continued to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2892 yuan, down 9 yuan [2][15]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories increased, and the price was under downward pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 21910 yuan, down 2.12% [2][18]. - **Lead**: In the short - term, both supply and demand were weak, but it was bullish in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16765 yuan, down 0.09% [2][21]. - **Tin**: It stopped falling and rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 263,740 yuan, up 0.05% [2][25]. - **Nickel**: There was a game between real - world support and weak expectations, and the nickel price fluctuated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 122,710 yuan [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The negative feedback led to increased production cuts, and the steel price fluctuated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan [2][28]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related (not directly mentioned)** - **Fuel Oil**: The daytime session was weak, and it would enter an adjustment phase in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FU2507 closed at 2,927 yuan, down 0.54% [2][141]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly showed a fluctuating trend, and the spot price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the international market continued to rise. The trend intensity is 0. The price of LU2507 closed at 3,583 yuan, down 0.31% [2][141]. - **Coal - related** - **Coking Coal**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The price of JM2509 closed at 780 yuan, up 1.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Coke**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of J2509 closed at 1339 yuan, down 11.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand awaited release, and it fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The previous opening price of ZC2507 was 931.6 yuan [2][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There were large differences in the pressure from the producing areas, and it was bottom - grinding with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the palm - oil main contract closed at 8,182 yuan, up 0.89% [2][169]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force was temporarily weak, and it oscillated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the soybean - oil main contract closed at 7,766 yuan, up 0.36% [2][169]. - **Soybean Meal**: The weather was normal, and US soybeans closed down. Dalian soybean meal might follow the decline. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3019 yuan, up 28 yuan [2][174]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of DCE Soybean 2507 closed at 4138 yuan, down 4 yuan [2][174]. - **Corn**: It trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of C2507 closed at 2,357 yuan, up 0.90% [2][177][178]. - **Sugar**: It was in a low - level consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the futures main contract closed at 5734 yuan, down 1 yuan [2][183]. - **Cotton**: It continued to be affected by market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of CF2509 closed at 13,495 yuan, up 1.01% [2][187]. - **Eggs**: The industry still had a resistance sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Eggs 2507 closed at 2,837 yuan, down 1.18% [2][191]. - **Hogs**: Weight reduction had just started, waiting for confirmation from the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Henan's spot hogs was 13900 yuan/ton [2][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PK510 closed at 8,310 yuan, down 1.17% [2][196]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price stabilized, and the weak oscillation continued. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 260 yuan [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upward space was limited, and short - selling on rallies was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Si2507 closed at 7,475 yuan, up 185 yuan [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - selling on the futures was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of PS2507 closed at 34,105 yuan, down 635 yuan [2][36]. - **PTA**: Demand weakened, and the medium - term trend was weak. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the PTA main contract closed at 4602 yuan, down 1.1% [2][63][64]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the MEG main contract closed at 4256 yuan, down 0.1% [2][63][64]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract was 13,725 yuan, up 75 yuan [2][70][72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the butadiene - rubber main contract was 11,270 yuan, down 30 yuan [2][75]. - **Asphalt**: It followed crude oil and trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of BU2507 closed at 3,519 yuan, up 0.28% [2][78]. - **LLDPE**: It oscillated in the short - term and still faced pressure later. The trend intensity is 0. The price of L2509 closed at 7078 yuan, up 0.08% [2][89]. - **PP**: The spot price was stable, and there was just - in - time demand. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PP2509 closed at 6932 yuan, up 0.09% [2][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation was under pressure due to high profits. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 2308 yuan [2][97]. - **Pulp**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,394 yuan, up 114 yuan [2][101][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FG509 closed at 1006 yuan, up 1.31% [2][106][107]. - **Methanol**: It rebounded in the short - term, but the medium - term pressure was still large. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the methanol main contract closed at 2,277 yuan, up 4 yuan [2][109][110]. - **Urea**: It was in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the urea main contract closed at 1,697 yuan, down 23 yuan [2][114][115]. - **Styrene**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Styrene 2506 closed at 7,360 yuan, up 127 yuan [2][118]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The trend intensity is 0. The price of SA2509 closed at 1,202 yuan, down 0.91% [2][121][122]. - **LPG**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PG2507 closed at 4,116 yuan, up 0.44% [2][124][126]. - **PVC**: The trend still faced pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 4816 yuan [2][136]. Others - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 772 yuan, up 0.5% [2][58][60]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It oscillated at a high level; hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread. The trend intensity is 0. The price of EC2506 closed at 1,948.6 points, down 0.31% [2][143]. - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Short - Fiber 2507 closed at 6388 yuan, down 6 yuan [2][162]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Bottle - Chip 2507 closed at 5868 yuan, down 32 yuan [2][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It trended weakly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market was 4950 yuan/ton [2][166][167].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The macro sentiment has eased following the dialogue between the US and China, leading to a strong fluctuation in industrial metals [1][6] - Precious metals have seen a decline in safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices experiencing slight increases this week [1][25] - The report highlights the impact of US economic indicators, including manufacturing and employment data, on market sentiment and metal prices [1][40] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.54% to $3,331.00 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 9.24% to $36.13 per ounce this week [1][25] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 129,023.13 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 13,038,422.40 ounces [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 7.96% to 92.19, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 1.83% to $9,670.50 per ton, aluminum by 0.12% to $2,451.50 per ton, zinc by 1.25% to $2,662.50 per ton, and lead by 0.51% to $1,974.00 per ton [6][46] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper up by 1.71% to ¥78,930.00 per ton and zinc up by 0.72% to ¥22,385.00 per ton [6][46] - The report notes a significant decrease in LME copper registered warehouse stocks, down 17.5% to 54,700 tons, the lowest level since July 2023 [44] Copper - Chile's copper exports in May reached 181,234 tons, with 32,721 tons exported to China [7][67] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' operating rates increased to 75.90%, reflecting a recovery in demand [7][67] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for copper prices due to ongoing macroeconomic policies and infrastructure investments in China [8][68] Aluminum - The report indicates that aluminum demand is under pressure, with production costs decreasing and seasonal demand weakening [9][10] - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in China fell to ¥16,374 per ton, while the average profit margin increased to ¥3,703 per ton [44] - The outlook for aluminum prices remains cautiously optimistic, supported by ongoing demand in the electric vehicle and power sectors [10][18] Zinc - The report highlights ongoing uncertainties due to tariffs and increased imports, leading to sustained supply pressures in the zinc market [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventories increased by 0.43% to 79,300 tons, indicating a buildup in supply [11] Lead - Lead consumption is currently in a seasonal downturn, with inventories expected to continue rising [12] - The report notes that lead battery markets are experiencing reduced production, leading to cautious procurement strategies among downstream enterprises [12] Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have seen a decline of 3.25% to ¥17,590 per ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in the market [13][14] - Molybdenum prices have increased, supported by strong raw material prices, while vanadium prices have softened due to weak demand [15]

每经记者｜吴永久 每经编辑｜闫峰峰 本周末的重要消息有：一是，美国5月非农数据好于预期；二是中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行。 周五，美股在5月非农数据好于预期的刺激下，大幅高开，随后明显回落，在贸易谈判消息刺激下，又涨了回去。 在每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛第62期比赛中，目前已经进行了4天，参赛选手们跑步入场。目前上证指数面临3400点的压力，后市行情如何走？未 来的主线有哪些？一些参赛高手分享了观点。 大赛为模拟炒股，模拟资金50万元。第62期比赛报名时间为5月31日到6月13日，比赛时间为6月3日到6月13日。正收益就获奖，报名就拿福利！周周发奖 金，月月有大奖！ 每期比赛的税前现金奖励为：第1名奖励688元，第2~4名奖励188元/人，第5~10名奖励88元/人，其余正收益选手均分500元正收益奖。月度积分王的税前 现金奖励为：第1名奖励888元，第2~4名奖励288元/人，第5~10名奖励188元/人，第11~30名奖励68元/人，第31~100名奖励18元/人。 上证指数或将迎来主升浪？高手看好这些主线 消息面上，6月6日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，就业人数增加13.9万人，虽然创2月以来 ...

还有一个板块值得关注，就是虫害防治。苏利股份、长青股份涨停，这和当前农业生产旺季有关。全国农技中心预测，今年病虫害发生面积会增加6.2%， 农药需求自然就上来了。这让我想起2019年的猪肉周期，当时牧原股份就是在行业低谷期被资金盯上的。不过农药板块周期性强，得把握好节奏，别在高峰 期追高。 最后说说市场情绪。虽然今天涨停股有65只，但主力资金净流出265亿，北向资金却在偷偷加仓科技和医药。这说明啥？机构在调仓换股，从题材股转向业 绩确定性高的方向。作为中长线投资者，咱们得学聪明点，别被短期波动影响，重点关注那些能影响长期趋势的变量，比如政策、行业景气度。 好了，以上就是今天的涨停股解读。关注帮主郑重，获取更多中长线投资策略。记住，投资就像钓鱼，耐心比技巧更重要，咱们下次再见！ 先来说说贵金属板块，这可是今天最耀眼的明星。湖南白银、白银有色、盛达资源这些票直接封板，原因很简单——国际银价创了13年新高！帮主我掐指一 算，这背后有三大推手：一是地缘政治紧张，资金都跑去避险了；二是新能源产业对白银的需求激增，光伏电池、电动车都离不开它；三是美元走弱，白银 作为"穷人的黄金"自然水涨船高。不过咱们中长线投资者得注意， ...

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index saw reduced trading volume. Silver concept stocks surged, with companies like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous hitting the daily limit. Computing power concept stocks continued to rebound, with Huamai Technology and Nanling Technology also reaching the limit. Agricultural chemical stocks remained strong, with Su Li Co., Mei Bang Co., and Changqing Co. hitting the daily limit. In contrast, stablecoin concept stocks faced adjustments, with Xiongdi Technology dropping over 10% [1]. Silver Sector - The silver sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhongrun Resources and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit. Comex July silver futures rose by 4% to $36.03 per ounce, reaching a peak of $36.27, the highest level since February 2012. Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42%, while silver's rise was approximately 15%, indicating a lag [4][5]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the price relationship between gold and silver, suggests that silver may be undervalued when the ratio approaches its upper historical range [5]. - From late May, silver's upward momentum has been building, with expectations that the gold-silver ratio may revert to pre-tariff levels. The demand for industrial silver is projected to rise due to the growth in photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, with silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles increasing by 21% and 71%, respectively [6]. Agricultural Chemicals - The computing power sector remained active, with Su Li Co. achieving two consecutive daily limits, and other companies like Mei Bang Co. and Changqing Co. also hitting the limit. A recent explosion at a chemical plant in Shandong related to the production of chlorantraniliprole intermediates has raised concerns [7][9]. - The explosion is expected to lead to price increases for intermediates like K-amine, and stricter regulations on nitration processes in the agricultural chemical industry. The industry is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventory being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures persist [9]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery sector showed strong performance, with companies like Dexin Technology and Jinying Co. hitting the daily limit. The market for solid-state batteries is projected to open up by 2030, with significant demand for solid electrolytes and lithium sulfide, indicating a market space exceeding 210 billion yuan [10][12]. - The development of solid-state batteries is expected to drive significant demand for lithium sulfide, with upstream production capacity facing notable shortages, which could hinder cost reductions [12].

Core Insights - The article highlights a strong performance in the stock market on June 6, with a total of 50 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and 12 stocks classified as consecutive limit-up stocks, achieving a promotion rate of 58.33% excluding ST and delisted stocks [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - A total of 12 stocks achieved consecutive limit-ups, with 7 stocks reaching three consecutive limit-ups or more [1] - The stock "Cohesion Lawn" saw a significant increase, reaching a total of 5 consecutive limit-ups [1] - "Jinshi Technology" and "Zhongjia Bochuang" achieved 4 and 3 consecutive limit-ups respectively, indicating strong market interest in these stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance throughout the day, driven by silver prices reaching a 13-year high, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous hitting the daily limit up [1] - The chemical sector was also active, with stocks such as Sully Co. and Bohai Chemical achieving consecutive limit-ups, although some high-profile stocks like Lianhua Technology failed to maintain their limit-up status [1] Group 3: Market Trends - The market exhibited a pattern of rapid rotation among various sectors, with significant divergence observed in previously strong sectors like stablecoins, where stocks such as Cuiwei Co. and Hailian Jinhui dropped over 7% [1] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with some stocks experiencing sharp declines after previous gains, indicating volatility in investor sentiment [1]