来源：浙商证券 配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨 杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前 期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置和个股方面，建议关注 明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，短期可以关注走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，留意医 药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 风险提示 国内经济修复不及预期；全球地缘政治存在不确定性。 责任编辑：郭栩彤 来源：浙商证券 本周市场继续反弹，但双向波动有所增大。展望后市，考虑到今年三季度市场涨幅较大、强势标的多数 还在冲高回落后的修复过程中，加之近期未出现引领大盘上涨的宏大叙事和领涨行业，因此我们预计后 市大概率维持区间震荡格局。配置方面，基于"冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标守株待兔"的判断：择时方 面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标（例 如上证指数9 月4 日低点或前期跳空缺口，恒生科技指数近期低点或年线），伺机出击、分批介入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the seasonal market rally known as "spring excitement," emphasizing its historical significance and the factors contributing to its occurrence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Significance of Spring Rally - The spring rally serves as a market response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [1][8]. - It provides a favorable opportunity for institutions to adjust their portfolios, especially after year-end assessment pressures ease [1][8]. - The rally reflects seasonal liquidity improvements, driven by capital inflows around the Spring Festival and heightened policy expectations [1][8]. Group 2: Core Causes of Spring Rally - The three main causes of the spring rally include: 1. Concentrated release of policy expectations [1][8]. 2. Seasonal changes in liquidity, including a narrowing M1-M2 gap and strong credit issuance at the beginning of the year [1][8]. 3. An earnings vacuum period that allows institutions to adjust their holdings [1][8]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Rally Intensity - Historical analysis indicates that a strong spring rally typically requires one or a combination of the following conditions: 1. Short-term macroeconomic data (e.g., PMI, social financing, industrial value-added) significantly exceeding expectations, signaling economic stabilization or recovery [2][8]. 2. Overall corporate profitability entering an upward trajectory, with positive annual and quarterly earnings forecasts, free from major external disruptions [2][8]. 3. Clearly accommodative monetary policy, characterized by rising M1 growth, declining short-term interest rates, and enhanced credit pulses, providing ample liquidity support for high-elasticity assets [2][8]. Group 4: Changes in Funding Ecology - The current market sees two significant changes in funding ecology that may contribute to a stable increase in China's securitization rate: 1. The weakening of real estate investment attributes, with the equity market becoming a new primary venue for household assets [2][9]. 2. Indirect movement of household funds into the market, resulting in a continuous and stable influx of new capital [2][9]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting: 1. The dual driving forces of technology and cyclical opportunities, with cyclical prospects becoming more prominent amid anti-involution trends [4][11]. 2. Continued long-term advantages for technology sectors [4][11]. 3. Identification of opportunities in recently undervalued growth sectors such as military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment [4][11]. Group 6: Sector Allocation Recommendations - Recommendations for sector allocation include: 1. Internal recovery and high-low cuts within technology: military, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, batteries, and core AI hardware [5][12]. 2. Benefits from PPI improvement and broad anti-involution: solar energy, chemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and machinery [5][12]. 3. Long-term core holdings: stable dividends, gold, and optimized high-dividend stocks [5][12].

Group 1: Commonality of Spring Rally - The spring rally signifies the market's early response to economic expectations and policy directions for the coming year, allowing investors to position themselves for the main themes of the year [12][13] - The three core drivers of the spring rally include concentrated policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and the performance vacuum during the earnings reporting period [16][20] - Strong spring rallies typically occur when macroeconomic data significantly exceeds expectations, overall corporate earnings enter an upward trajectory, and monetary policy is notably accommodative [21][20] Group 2: Changes in Funding Ecology Behind the Index Bull Market - The weakening of real estate investment attributes has led to the equity market becoming the new main stage for residents' assets, with a structural migration of funds from real estate to stocks and funds [23][24] - Residents' funds are indirectly entering the market, bringing stable incremental capital, with a shift from high-yield financial products to new categories such as fixed income+, secondary bond funds, and higher-risk bank wealth management products [25][26] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Technology and Cyclical Sectors - The market correction is seen as a temporary pause, with an emphasis on early positioning for the spring rally, focusing on both technology and cyclical sectors as dual drivers [29][30] - Specific sectors showing potential include military industry, media (gaming), AI applications, Hong Kong internet, and power equipment, with core technology blue chips expected to recover [29][30]

当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常 态，资源/传统制造业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜力的被低估的方向。去年"9.24行情"以来，两轮市场 水位的整体抬升都伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私 募主观多头产品新发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔 除两轮融资的大幅上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是 量化驱动的微盘、保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新药。 其他时间市场大多横盘震荡，实现上涨的板块仅有微盘指数、银行、有色和医药 1）剔除两轮融资大幅上升的阶段，市场基本维持震荡轮动的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous improvement of China's manufacturing industry's global pricing power and economic profit share is expected to lead to a sustained appreciation of the Renminbi, with predictions of reaching 6.8 against the US dollar by 2026. To mitigate the potential negative impact of rapid Renminbi appreciation on export-oriented manufacturing, proactive monetary easing is deemed necessary [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The anticipated monetary easing may lower real interest rates and stimulate domestic demand, which is essential for breaking the current market stagnation and achieving further growth by 2026 [1]. - Prior to this, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are expected to be the norm in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that have global exposure and profit growth potential [1]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - In the resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, there is optimism for leading companies in industries where China holds a competitive advantage, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, emphasizing the narrative of "supply internalization and external demand for profit" [1]. - Companies expanding overseas remain a crucial avenue for profit and market capitalization growth, as A-shares transition from a domestic emerging market focus to a global mature market perspective, despite the increased resonance with overseas risk assets and economic environments [1]. - From a high-to-low perspective, less crowded sectors such as cinema, securities, aviation, liquor, and hotels, along with direct increment stocks like banks, thermal power, and oil & petrochemicals, are also viable options [1]. - Close attention is advised for policy changes during the upcoming Political Bureau meeting and economic work conference at the end of the year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that before the emergence of unexpected changes in domestic demand, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are the norm, with a reassessment of global pricing power in resources and traditional manufacturing being an undervalued direction [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall elevation of market levels has been accompanied by a systematic increase in financing scale, totaling a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding the total issuance scale of public and private bullish products since October last year [1] - In the two market rallies, major broad-based and cyclical industries have completed most of their gains, while excluding the significant rise phases of financing, the market has mostly been in a sideways trend [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - During the sideways period, sectors that achieved effective growth include quantitatively driven micro-accounts, bank-driven insurance, price-driven non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals driven by pipeline exports [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market fluctuation may be a normal state before the emergence of unexpected changes in fundamentals, with adjustments in the bond market posing challenges to stock-bond balanced strategies, which may require higher control over position volatility and indirectly affect stock allocation strategies [1] - Potential appreciation pressure on the renminbi may lead to unexpected monetary easing, which could be a source of unexpected changes and break the current fluctuation pattern; until then, the focus should remain on the reassessment of pricing power in resources/traditional manufacturing and corporate overseas expansion [1]

Core Insights - The market continues to rebound, but with increased volatility. The expectation is for a range-bound market due to significant gains in Q3 and the lack of a leading narrative or sector driving the market upward [1][4][52] - The strategy suggests a "wait and see" approach, avoiding chasing prices and setting targets based on key index levels, while selectively entering positions [1][5][54] Market Overview - Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 0.37%, 1.09%, and 1.28% respectively. The ChiNext Index rose by 1.86% [2][12][52] - The materials sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, saw a significant increase of 5.07%, while consumer sectors experienced declines [14][52] - Market sentiment showed a slight decrease in trading volume, with average daily turnover at 1.68 trillion yuan, down from the previous week [20][52] Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector, identified as a "key eye" in the market, rose by 2.33%, contributing to the overall market rebound [14][53] - The home appliance sector, which had lagged in the current bull market, increased by 1.73%, marking it as the only industry index to reach a new high in the past three weeks [53] Fund Flows - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.48 trillion yuan, with a rise in the proportion of financing purchases to 9.9% [26][52] - The stock ETF saw a net outflow of 6.5 billion yuan, with the securities ETF experiencing the highest inflow [26][52] Valuation Metrics - The current PE ratios indicate that the market is generally reasonably valued, with the ChiNext Index at a relatively low valuation percentile of 38.04% [44][52] - The downward energy model shows that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, indicating no immediate sell signals [45][52]

中国大宗商品价格指数连续七个月环比回升 中新社北京12月5日电 (记者 阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会5日发布数据显示，2025年11月份，中国大 宗商品价格指数(CBPI)为114.1点，环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨1.6%，保持稳中向好态势。 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 分行业看，有色价格指数继续走高，能源价格指数止跌反弹，农产品价格指数小幅上涨，矿产价格指数 继续回升，黑色系价格指数跌幅收窄，化工价格指数继续下行。 分商品看，在中国物流与采购联合会重点监测的50种大宗商品中，11月价格与上月相比，25种(50%)大 宗商品价格上涨，25种(50%)大宗商品价格下跌。11月涨幅前三的大宗商品为碳酸锂、焦炭和瓦楞纸， 环比分别上涨15%、7.2%和7.1%；跌幅前三的为甲醇、玻璃和棕榈油，环比分别下跌8.3%、7.1%和 6%。 分析认为，总体来看，中国大宗商品市场景气水平继续回升，保持稳中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (970064) closed at 1668.3 points on December 5, with a 1.95% increase and a trading volume of 32.01 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards state-owned enterprises [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 43 constituent stocks rise, with Electric Power Investment leading at a 6.96% increase, while 6 stocks declined, with China Merchants Shekou leading the decline at 1.91% [1]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, 4.26 yuan, 5.19% increase) and Huatai Securities (3.84% weight, 5.19 yuan, 1.96% increase) [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 1.242 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 365 million yuan [3]. - Major stocks like BOE Technology Group had a net inflow of 901 million yuan, while other stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw a net inflow of 205 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 10 new stocks and the removal of 10 stocks, reflecting changes in market dynamics [4]. - New additions include Zhongmi Holdings (total market value 7.349 billion yuan) and Gujing Gongjiu (total market value 87.906 billion yuan), while removals include Xinyu Media and Yanghe Brewery [4].

Core Insights - Huachuang Securities highlights four major investment directions for the CSI A500 index: technology innovation, cyclical industries, overseas expansion, and the real estate chain [1] Group 1: Investment Directions - Technology innovation focuses on robust growth at the endpoint and the commercialization of ToB, with an emphasis on the need to digest valuations in the tech sector [1] - Cyclical industries are expected to benefit from price elasticity due to supply clearing, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, coal, construction materials, and machinery [1] - Overseas expansion aims to enhance global competitiveness, with a focus on electric new energy, machinery, communication equipment, and energy metals [1] - The real estate chain is anticipated to recover from mid-term bottoming out, with high potential in construction, building materials, home furnishings, appliances, and property management [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The technology manufacturing sector is seeing a steady increase in return on equity (ROE) amid the transition of old and new growth drivers [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which is leading in the number of accounts among similar products, being more than three times that of the second-ranked fund [1]