Report Title - "Coal Strength Boosts, Alloy Center of Gravity Lifted - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20250811" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For ferrosilicon, last week affected by coal over - production verification news, coal and coke strengthened again, driving the black series to stop falling. Ferrosilicon first rose then fell during the week, with its center of gravity continuing to rise. Production increased significantly, demand remained weak in the off - season, and recent macro and coal industry policies dominated the market. It's recommended to take an interval - oscillation approach in the short term, with the lower support around 5500 - 5600 [4]. - For silicomanganese, last week it also showed a firm trend due to coal news. Production continued to rise, demand was weak in the off - season, and recent macro and coal industry policies led the market. It should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term, with the lower support around 5750 - 6000 [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Supply - 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises had a weekly output of 10.91 tons (up 4.5% MoM, up 7.3% YoY). In July 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons (up 7.88% MoM, down 11.92% YoY), with an expanding increase and a positive YoY growth [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - The ferrosilicon consumption of five major steel products was 2.02 tons (up 1.7% MoM, up 15.4% YoY), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (up 0.21% MoM, up 10.94% YoY), showing a weak - stable state [10]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 7.17 tons (up 9.42% MoM, up 26.3% YoY), and the steel mill inventory in July was 14.25 days (down 1.13 days MoM, down 0.98 days YoY), indicating that manufacturers were accumulating inventory [13]. 3.1.4 Cost - The prices of most raw materials remained stable during the week. The cost of ferrosilicon in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia slightly increased by about 0.4%, while the profit decreased, with the profit in Qinghai down 31.85%, in Ningxia down 91.97%, and in Inner Mongolia down 37.70% [17]. 3.1.5 Futures - Spot Relationship - The ferrosilicon warehouse - receipt quantity was 19646 (down 2396 MoM, up 4999 YoY), and the basis of the 09 contract in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton MoM, showing a slight premium of the futures price [20]. 3.1.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data on contract position and precipitated funds are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [22] 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Supply - 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises had a weekly output of 19.58 tons (up 2.6% MoM, down 7.2% YoY). In July, the national silicomanganese output was 81.96 tons (up 8.9% MoM, down 17% YoY), with profit driving the increase in production [28]. 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 12.52 tons (up 1.2% MoM, up 5.2% YoY), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (up 0.21% MoM, up 10.94% YoY), showing a stable - increasing state [31]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 16.4 tons (down 20% MoM, down 11.6% YoY), and the steel mill inventory in July was 14.24 days (down 1.25 days MoM, down 1.19 days YoY), with the decline rate of manufacturers' inventory slowing down [34]. 3.2.4 Futures - Spot Relationship - The silicomanganese warehouse - receipt quantity was 76045 (down 1809 MoM, down 61502 YoY), and the 09 basis in Inner Mongolia was 104 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton MoM, with the warehouse - receipt quantity steadily decreasing [38]. 3.2.5 Cost - The prices of most raw materials were stable, while the price of manganese ore slightly decreased. The cost of silicomanganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased by about 0.4%, and the profit increased, with the profit in Ningxia up 56.47%, in Inner Mongolia up 29.00%, in Guangxi up 14.31%, and in Guizhou up 22.62% [41]. 3.2.6 Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - Relevant data on contract position and precipitated funds are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [43]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Futures has implemented a three-step service strategy to revitalize the underlying commodity assets of ferroalloy plants, effectively addressing issues such as limited sales channels, passive pricing, and significant price volatility in traditional ferroalloy enterprises, ensuring that goods are accessible, manageable, and sellable [1][4] Group 1: Customized Three-Step Solution - Zhongwei City is a major silicon iron production base, accounting for over 85% of Ningxia's total output. A key ferroalloy enterprise in the area, despite having sufficient orders, has been operating at a marginal profit due to overall industry downward pressure. CITIC Futures designed a tiered service plan tailored to the enterprise's characteristics [2] - The first phase involved expanding sales channels through futures delivery, allowing the enterprise to recover funds and alleviate account period pressure. CITIC Futures provided comprehensive guidance on the delivery process to ensure the quality of the goods met exchange standards [2] - The second phase introduced basis trading to enhance pricing capabilities, enabling the enterprise to lock in profits when futures prices were high, maintaining stable earnings even during market volatility [2] - The third phase involved innovative rights trading to increase operating profits, where CITIC Futures designed a "cumulative sales" rights trading plan to help the enterprise achieve high-price inventory clearance amid a persistently low silicon iron price forecast for Q4 2024 [2] Group 2: Significant Results of Industry-Finance Integration - CITIC Futures and its subsidiaries effectively addressed enterprise challenges through a combination strategy of "futures delivery + basis pricing + rights trading," enhancing profits and stabilizing operations. This integration of futures and options tools not only improved the operational quality of the enterprise but also validated the value of these financial instruments in strengthening industry risk management capabilities [3] - The success of this project is attributed to the service philosophy of "finance understands the entity," transforming complex financial tools into understandable and operable solutions for enterprises, thereby bridging the last mile of industry-finance integration [3] Group 3: Establishing a New Benchmark for Futures Services - The project serves as a model by deeply integrating innovative service models with the actual needs of enterprises, addressing challenges such as limited sales channels, weak pricing power, and high price volatility. It validates the application value of derivative tools in traditional manufacturing and demonstrates effective pathways for futures services to support small and micro enterprises [4] - CITIC Futures is committed to providing high-quality services to support the development of the real economy, adhering to principles of compliance, integrity, professionalism, stability, and responsibility. The company aims to enhance the vitality of industries and contribute to their recovery and growth [4] - Moving forward, CITIC Futures plans to deepen the "futures + industry" service model, develop more customized risk management solutions, and strengthen industry training to improve enterprises' understanding and application of financial tools, facilitating their transformation and upgrading [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Manganese Silicide: Core view - Neutral; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Bearish; Steel production - Bullish; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [3] - Ferrosilicon: Core view - Bearish; Month spread - Neutral; Spot - Neutral; Steel & Magnesium production - Neutral; Inventory - Bearish; Cost - profit - Neutral [4] Core Views - Manganese Silicide: This week, the market fluctuated after a rally. Supply increased, demand from the steel industry improved slightly, and the overall cost rose. The spot market had average trading volume, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts continued to decline [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The market fluctuated this week. The spot trading atmosphere was poor. Supply increased and was still in the process of resuming production. Demand from the steel industry increased slightly, while the production of magnesium decreased, and export volume remained weak. The cost was expected to rise in the long - term [4]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicide Manganese Ore - Port inventory totaled 438.5 million tons, with a significant differentiation between northern and southern regions. Tianjin Port's inventory decreased to 353.5 million tons, lower than last year's level, while Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 84.5 million tons, higher than last year's level [10]. - Jupiter announced the shipment price for manganese ore to China in September 2025. Port manganese ore prices declined slightly [15]. Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production of manganese silicide increased to 195,800 tons, with daily average production rising in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi [28]. Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises increased slightly to 125,200 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products increased to 869,210 tons, and the proportion of rebar increased [38]. Price - The spot market had average trading volume, and prices fluctuated with the market. The price in Inner Mongolia was around 5,820 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin, it was 5,950 yuan/ton. HeSteel's first inquiry price for the tender was 6,000 yuan/ton [49]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the immediate profit of manganese silicide was low. Although the profit improved in the short - term after the market rally, the overall price fluctuated greatly, and the continuous increase in chemical coke compressed the profit margin [54]. Month Spread - As of August 8, the September - January spread of manganese silicide was - 80 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period [61]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of manganese silicide warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 387,000 tons, and the overall trend continued to decline [63]. Ferrosilicon Supply - As of August 8, the weekly production increased to 109,100 tons. The production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly, while that in Ningxia decreased slightly, and the production in Shaanxi remained unchanged [67]. Demand - The demand from steel mills increased slightly. The total consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills was 20,300 tons, slightly higher than the historical average [70]. - The production of magnesium decreased slightly, and the export price of magnesium remained stable [78]. Cost - Profit - As of August 7, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon worsened, but the overall profit was good. Only Shaanxi had significant losses, while Ningxia had relatively high profits [98]. Month Spread - As of August 7, the September - January spread of ferrosilicon was - 178 yuan/ton, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period and was at a historically low level [100]. Warehouse Receipts - As of August 7, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 107,300 tons, showing a significant decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level [103]. Supply - Demand Balance Forecast Manganese Silicide - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand showed fluctuations. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also changed over time [105]. Ferrosilicon - From October 2024 to December 2025, the total supply and demand also fluctuated. There were periods of surplus and shortage, and the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption changed over time [106].

Report Date - The report is dated August 11, 2025 [3] Price - The report presents the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon (FeSi) and silicomanganese (SiMn) in various regions from 2021 to 2025, including 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin, as well as 75% FeSi in Shaanxi [1][2][6] - It also shows the prices of related products such as silicon carbide - ferrosilicon spread, silicon - manganese spread, and the export and import average prices of ferrosilicon [2][4] Supply - The supply section includes the production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, such as the monthly production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China and the weekly production of silicomanganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [4][6] - The capacity utilization rates of ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are also provided [4] Demand - The demand part shows the demand data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless steel, and the procurement volume and price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7] - The demand for silicomanganese in China (Steel Union caliber) is also presented [4][7] Inventory - The inventory section provides the inventory data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, such as the weekly inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the inventory of silicomanganese in China [5][7] - It also shows the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [5][7] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit part includes the cost data such as electricity prices in different regions for ferroalloys, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5] - The profit data such as the production profit of semi - coke in China, the profit of ferrosilicon exports, and the profit of silicomanganese in different regions are also presented [5][7]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Ulanqab City is actively promoting financial support for enterprises, particularly through innovative financing models and collaboration with banks to address financing challenges faced by businesses [1][2][3][4] - Jitie Ferroalloy Co., a leading enterprise in the ferroalloy industry, has successfully utilized the "1+N" supply chain financing model, which has enabled over 10 upstream companies to secure loans, enhancing their bargaining power [1] - Ulanqab City has implemented a comprehensive financial assistance strategy, including establishing a financing demand push mechanism and conducting regular financial matching events, resulting in a total loan issuance of 1.322 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The city has upgraded its services by organizing financial service teams to conduct direct visits to key enterprises, ensuring that financial policies and support reach the market effectively [2] - Ulanqab City has introduced innovative guarantee models, such as the "Smart Livestock Loan" and "Smart Inventory Loan," which have provided 51 million yuan in loans to 11 enterprises, addressing collateral shortages for small and micro enterprises [3] - The city has launched targeted financial service plans for specific industries, including the ferroalloy and potato industries, facilitating a total of 5.042 billion yuan in financing for the ferroalloy sector and implementing a "Pledge Model" for the potato industry [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last Friday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market declined slightly, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. With the landing of the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment became more rational, and the futures market trend started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal demand and the support of cost factors for finished steel prices [3]. - For iron ore, the current supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The steel mill profitability rate continues to rise, and although the short - term increase in hot metal may be limited, there is no sign of a rapid decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the change in terminal demand and the possible risks on the raw material side [6]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the "anti - involution" has not changed the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon. In the future, attention should be paid to the possible marginal weakening of demand. For ferrosilicon, it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand still exist. Although the demand in August can provide some support, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in major production areas. For polysilicon, it is expected to increase production in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [14][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is required for a significant increase. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3213 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 94,978 tons, a net increase of 1487 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.61211 million lots, a net decrease of 16,057 lots. The summary price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Shanghai, it was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3428 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.392227 million lots, a net decrease of 36,360 lots. The summary price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing this week, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, with the increase further expanding this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the position changed by - 27,288 lots to 308,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 916,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.02 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 3.43% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipment volume from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On August 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated, closing down 0.30% at 6046 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 94 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.06% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 128 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. The over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed, and there may be a marginal weakening of demand in the future. For ferrosilicon, there has been no significant change, and it is expected that there will be a marginal weakening of demand [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8710 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+ 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 1995 lots to 533,795 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 390 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 190 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 50,790 yuan/ton, up 1.36% (+ 680). The weighted contract position changed by - 15,312 lots to 360,328 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 44.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 3790 yuan/ton. It is expected to increase production in August, with inventory likely to accumulate. It is recommended that both long and short positions participate with caution [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1181 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1190 yuan, unchanged. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million weight boxes, a net increase of 2.348 million weight boxes (+ 3.95%) from the previous period, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The inventory days were 26.4 days, an increase of 0.9 days from the previous period. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1235 yuan, down 20 yuan from the previous day. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 13,300 tons (0.72%) from Monday. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alloy market is experiencing a tug - of - war between market sentiment and fundamentals, leading to an oscillating trend in alloy prices. The "anti - involution" has disrupted market sentiment, while on the fundamental side, the iron - water output has contracted, and alloy demand may weaken. If the supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continues to expand, the alloy prices may face pressure after the subsiding of the market sentiment. [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Conditions - This week, the alloy prices showed an oscillating trend. On Wednesday, the silicon - iron price was further boosted by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The weak employment data in the US has increased market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The iron - water output has decreased, and alloy demand may decline due to factors such as the expected September military parade. [5] - The silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,444,373 lots traded and 119,038 lots held (a decrease of 36,059 lots week - on - week). The manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 6,046 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,547,336 lots traded and 227,914 lots held (a decrease of 43,349 lots week - on - week). [8] - The national silicon - iron spot prices were weak, with the 75B silicon - iron main - producing area quotes ranging from 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 - 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese spot quotes were in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of 10 - 100 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Silicon - Iron Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly silicon - iron output was 10.91 tons, a 4.3% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 34.32%, up 0.56 percentage points week - on - week. The increase in production was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia and Gansu. [20][21] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude - steel output in June was 287.11 tons, down 14.59 tons month - on - month, and the July production schedule was expected to decline. The total metal - magnesium output in July was 6.86 tons, down 0.5% month - on - month. The silicon - iron export volume in June was 3.47 tons, down 3.96% month - on - month. [31][37] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises was 71,770 tons, up 6,180 tons week - on - week. The silicon - iron warehouse - receipt quantity was 19,646 lots, down 2396 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 11,980 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in July was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days. [42] - **Profit**: The weekly silicon - iron futures profit was 465 yuan, a 24% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was 93 yuan, a 61.73% week - on - week decrease. [4] 3.3 Manganese - Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly manganese - silicon output was 19.58 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 43.43%, up 1.25 percentage points week - on - week. Inner Mongolia's production was at a historical high. [55] - **Raw Materials**: Overseas manganese - ore enterprises have raised their quotes, and the port prices of various manganese - ore varieties in Tianjin Port have slightly increased. The global manganese - ore departure volume has decreased, while the recent arrival volume at ports has increased. [63][67] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, supporting the overall demand for manganese - silicon. [78] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 161,500 tons, down 2,500 tons week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse - receipt quantity was 76045 lots, down 1809 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 9,045 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in July was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days. [83][87] - **Profit**: The weekly manganese - silicon futures profit was 229.42 yuan, a 12.21% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was - 16.58 yuan, a 55.84% week - on - week increase. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the potential pressure caused by the continuous increase in supply in the later stage. After the cooling of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the weights of the delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract are gradually increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate around the warehouse receipt cost this week [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, despite the previous call for self - restraint in production by leading enterprises, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise slightly this week due to price increases. On the demand side, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills also declined, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of steel mill tenders also rose, providing support for alloys. In terms of cost, electricity prices were stable this week, and port manganese ore prices were generally firm, with overseas mines mostly raising their September US dollar quotes slightly. Overall, the alloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a stable fundamental situation [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The leading "anti - involution" varieties showed differentiation this week. Although polysilicon and coking coal both closed up on the weekly line, their upward momentum slowed down significantly, and their driving effect on other commodities also weakened. After entering August, the weights of delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract began to gradually increase, and it is expected that commodity performance will continue to differentiate [4]. Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Operate around the warehouse receipt cost [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is at a low level [5]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons month - on - month. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons month - on - month; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.32%, an increase of 0.56% month - on - month; the national ferrosilicon production was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25% month - on - month; the national silicomanganese production was 195,800 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 8th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 72,000 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons month - on - month; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons month - on - month [12]. Spot Price - Basis - Graphs show the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contract for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [17]. Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Graphs present the weekly production and operating rates of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [23]. Steel Mill Production Situation - Graphs display the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29]. Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs showing the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of silicomanganese in different regions on August 7, 2025 [31]. Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Graphs show the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps FOB quotes, Tianjin Port manganese ore prices, and manganese ore forward FOB quotes from 2021 - 2025 [39]. Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs presenting the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of ferrosilicon in different regions on August 7, 2025 [41]. Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Graphs show the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51]. Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Representative Hebei Steel Mills - Graphs display the procurement prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Production - Graphs show the cumulative and monthly production of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [60][63]. Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Graphs present the monthly net imports of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net exports of ferrosilicon from 2012 - 2025 [68]. Magnesium Metal Demand - Graphs show the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 - 2025 [70]. Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Graphs display the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills, and the regional available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [74]. Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Graphs show the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the regional available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - aspect shows that the Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances are increasing, leading to repeated fluctuations in market sentiment. The silicon - iron main contract should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro**: On July 30, the China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation". The new rural highway improvement plan aims to reconstruct 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027 [6]. - **Overseas**: Trump proposed about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with Apple promising a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and steel demand is generally weak. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is 1 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the macro - situation [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - iron futures contract's open interest was 463,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 63,000 lots. The 1 - 9 contract monthly spread was 186, a week - on - week increase of 56 points. The warehouse receipt quantity was 19,646, a week - on - week decrease of 2,396. The Ningxia silicon - iron price was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [12][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - iron basis was - 242 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 points [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production**: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron capacity utilization rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45% (665 tons). The five major steel types' silicon - iron weekly demand was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%, and the national silicon - iron weekly supply was 109,100 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron inventory was 71,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.42% (6,180 tons). Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6,400 tons to 40,800 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 300 tons to 9,100 tons [29]. - **Upstream**: As of August 4, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron were unchanged. As of August 7, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke was 636 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [35]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 390,000 tons but an increase of 862,000 tons compared to last year. From January to June 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 200,100 tons, a 10.09% decrease compared to the same period last year [47].