Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a peanut daily report dated October 20, 2025, focusing on peanut futures, spot prices, and market analysis [2][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with futures likely to be volatile. The 01 peanut contract is expected to be in a relatively strong upward trend [4][10] - The by - product, peanut meal, is expected to be weak in the short - term due to the high unit - protein price difference with soybean meal [8] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 8044, up 32 (0.40%), with a trading volume of 153 (down 1.92%) and an open interest of 1,390 (up 6.68%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7958, up 30 (0.38%), with a trading volume of 100,664 (up 6.39%) and an open interest of 199,539 (up 6.58%) [2] Spot and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8800, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change [2] - The price of Rizhao soybean meal was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the price of peanut meal was 3250 yuan/ton [2] - The price of peanut oil was 14580 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8540 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] Import Price - The price of Sudanese peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Spread - The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 86, down 2 [2] Group 5: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Imported peanut prices were also stable. The supply increased, but downstream demand was still weak [4] - Some peanut oil mills started purchasing, with the pre - suspension mainstream transaction price at 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price at 7920 yuan/ton [4] - The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [4] - Rizhao soybean meal prices rose, while peanut meal was weak in the short - term due to the high unit - protein price difference with soybean meal [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - The 01 and 05 peanut contracts are in a low - level shock, and short - term long positions can be taken on pullbacks [11] Calendar Spread - Stay on the sidelines [12] Options - Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [13]

玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/10/20 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2138 21 0.98% 673,055 25.40% 800,344 3.98% 2250 28 1.24% 68,135 5.45% 197,618 9.43% 2286 32 1.40% 3,910 175.16% 3,603 21.35% 2410 26 1.08% 93,712 -5.61% 186,574 4.20% 2543 25 0.98% 1,410 -2.77% 4,526 0.98% 2605 25 0.96% 42 5.00% 168 9.09% 青冈 松原嘉吉 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 1965 2020 2340 2200 2170 2240 2310 20 0 50 -10 20 20 0 -321 -266 54 -86 32 -46 24 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2650 2650 2800 2920 2800 2900 2780 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 107 107 2 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国领导人在社交媒体称将在不久后与中方会面，大豆会是主要议题，这点燃了美 | | | | 国大豆农民对出口销售的期待。国内方面，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 22.38 万吨，较 | | 豆粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 前一交易日增 18.57 万吨，开机方面，今日全国动态全样本油厂开机率为 44.47%， | | ★ | | 较前一日下降 10.71%。美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，巴西降雨略有改善，缺 | | | | 乏利多驱动，豆粕偏弱整理行情，但中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑，短线 | | | | 波动有限。关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with current prices at 51.22 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.23% increase from the opening price [1] Group 1: Soybean Oil Futures Market Overview - On October 20, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 51.10 cents per pound and reached a high of 51.25 cents per pound, with a low of 50.97 cents per pound [1] - On October 17, the soybean oil futures market recorded an opening price of 50.81 cents, a high of 51.77 cents, a low of 50.80 cents, and a closing price of 50.86 cents, marking a 0.51% increase [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Inventory - On October 17, soybean oil trading volume was 11,500 tons, which represents an 85.48% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that soybean oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 26,294 lots on October 17 [1] Group 3: Agricultural Production Insights - According to a monthly report from Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture, the projected soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 18 million hectares, unchanged from the previous month but an 8.4% increase from the last year's 16.6 million hectares [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for the commodities in the agricultural futures sector, including soymeal, palm oil, and soy oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic soymeal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with prices under pressure. Oil mill operating rates are gradually recovering, increasing supply pressure. Downstream aquaculture losses have worsened, making feed enterprises cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak consumption. Spot basis is under pressure. The short - term fundamentals are lackluster, and the market is greatly affected by sentiment. With the changing prospects of Sino - US trade, soymeal futures prices are generally weak [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% month - on - month, with demand shifting to soy oil, causing a recent slight correction in domestic palm oil futures and spot prices. Although Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first half of October is strong, factors such as inventory pressure, fluctuating trade relations between countries, and weak international oil prices are still dragging down palm oil futures prices. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soy Oil (2601) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soy oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘2601合约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a comprehensive increase in agricultural futures on October 17, with significant gains in soybean, corn, and wheat prices [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Soybean futures rose by 1.01%, closing at 1021.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.30%, closing at 423.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures experienced a rise of 0.40%, closing at 504.50 cents per bushel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on October 17, with fluctuations in various commodity prices [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures decreased by 1.71%, closing at 15.53 cents per pound [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures increased by 0.88%, closing at 64.29 cents per pound [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures fell by 1.24%, closing at $5,917 per ton [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures rose by 0.79%, closing at 396.90 cents per pound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the futures prices dropped from high levels this week, with the 01 contract closing at 9,861 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous week. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the expected high - yield exerts pressure on its price. Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year benefits the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has been rising for seven consecutive months. In China, the preliminary ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed is expected to tighten structurally in the fourth quarter, supporting rapeseed oil prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit rapeseed oil demand to mainly rigid needs. The market should continue to monitor China - Canada trade policies [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the futures prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promotes soybean harvesting, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restrains its price. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the lack of data due to the US government shutdown makes the market cautious. In China, the China - Canada trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed will be restricted in the fourth quarter, with relatively low supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The market should continue to pay attention to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Rapeseed Oil Strategy**: Monitor the support level of the 60 - day moving average and mainly participate in the long - term in a bullish manner [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal Strategy**: Participate mainly in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: This week, rapeseed oil futures dropped from high levels, with a total open interest of 281,371 lots, a decrease of 32,617 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total open interest of 367,868 lots, a decrease of 3,840 lots from last week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +15,954 to +11,597, while the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures increased from - 63,260 to - 93,955 [23]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 7,590 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 7,702 lots [27]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,160 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price is +299 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,410 yuan/ton, lower than last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price is +104 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +386 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +30 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period in previous years [50]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is 4.276, and the average spot price ratio is 4.05 [53]. - **Price Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,605 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 553 yuan/ton, both narrowing this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 470 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Rapeseed Supply**: As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 are 150,000 tons, 450,000 tons, and 505,000 tons respectively. As of October 16, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +1,291 yuan/ton. As of the 41st week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 600 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 1.47%. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [73][77][81][85]. - **Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand**: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 629,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (0.41%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue is 449.57 billion yuan. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 51,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (2.87%) from last week [90][94][98]. - **Rapeseed Meal Supply and Demand**: As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 10,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (41.67%) from last week. In August 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.9272 million tons [102][106][110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of October 17, this week, rapeseed meal continued to decline, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 20.69%, a 0.69% increase from 20% last week, slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113]. 3.5 Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Daodaoquan, but no specific data analysis is provided [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]